Member Info for Prospero26

Replying to a few good points raised today.. because this is starting to come together fast.

The gas turbine news isn’t noise. It’s end-market demand being locked in.

Four Siemens gas turbines. 177 MW of new gas-fired generation. Commissioning targeted by end-2027 with a 1,000 MW roadmap by 2030.

That isn’t a headline. That’s hardware bought, financing structured, delivery planned. Ufufuo, at circa 40 mmscf/d required for the initial 177 MW alone, you’re already talking about a material chunk of future domestic gas demand.. before you even consider wider industrial growth, exports, or the additional 823 MW pencilled in by 2030.

Now just zoom out and connect the dots.

At Ntorya:

• CH-1 is targeting stacked sands, including the untested Unit 3

• P50 GIIP now 3.45 Tcf, with P10 upside to ~7.95 Tcf

• Total un-risked licence potential ~16.38 Tcf

• All casings, tubulars and now wellheads are already on site

• Civil works awarded, pipeline steel manufactured, groundwork starting imminently - next month !!

This is no longer theory. No longer hope. It’s execution mode.

And critically, the market often misses this part, gas demand is being built in parallel with supply.

Pipelines. Power plants. Turbines.

Long-dated infrastructure with government and export-credit backing.

That’s how re-ratings actually happen. Not on hype. Not on hope. But when resource scale + infrastructure + demand line up at the same time.

CH-1 isn’t about proving if gas is there.

It’s about how much, and how fast it gets monetised.

And with turbines already bought, steel already rolled, and wells already being prepared and concrete soon to be poured, the direction of travel is no longer debatable.

Execution beats opinion.

Steel beats sentiment.

Demand beats doubt.

2026 is going be HUGE !

This is the update many have been waiting for; and some have completely underestimated.

Civil works at Ntorya are now scheduled to commence in January 2026, covering:

• CH-1 well pad preparation and access road

• Rehabilitation of NT-1 and NT-2 well pads

• Conversion of the NT-3 site into the Ntorya Gas Field Base

• Preparation of sites for upstream production facilities and ancillary roads

This is not talk. This is irreversible sequencing. Operators do not authorise civil works unless:

1. The wider programme is funded and approved

2. The drilling sequence is credible

3. The regulatory path is clear

And that wider context now matters more than ever. APT’s 2026 work programme and budget.. over $50 million.. has been formally approved by the Tanzanian authorities, explicitly covering:

• Civil works

• NT-2 production tie-in

• CH-1 drilling and NT-1 workover

• All associated upstream infrastructure

This is a full-year execution budget, not a placeholder. Civil works are the first domino. Once pad, access and base facilities are prepared, rig mobilisation becomes the only remaining variable, and all rig tenders have already been received and are under evaluation.

Those looking for a single “rig headline” are missing the point. The real signal is this:

You don’t break ground unless you intend to drill soon!

CH-1 is not a marginal well. It is a potentially field-defining appraisal targeting stacked pay, material volumes, and a step-change in Ntorya’s long-term production profile.

2026 is no longer about “if”. It’s about sequence and timing.

Groundwork first. Rig next. CH-1 thereafter.

Execution has started.

Here’s the simple reality for Aminex right now:

• Ntorya Gas Field is formally designated as PRIMARY FEEDSTOCK for the Mtwara LNG system

• Pipeline is funded and in build phase

• TPDC fully aligned with Phase 1 development

• ARA Petroleum executing field development and processing plans

• Rig sequence potentially defined via Maurel & Prom programme which is now active

• CH-1 is no longer “just an appraisal well” — it underpins LNG, power, industry and regional gas supply

• Government + international capital now openly accelerating gas infrastructure

This is no longer a question of if.

It is now a question of sequencing into CH-1.

Chikumbi-1 is the value trigger:

• Proves deliverability

• Anchors Phase 2 scale-up

• Locks long-term monetisation

• Rewrites valuation in real time

The market is still pricing risk.

The reality has already moved to execution.

Primary supply means primary importance.

Primary importance brings priority drilling.

LNG on the way? Let’s be precise.

This isn’t vague government “vision” anymore.. the Mtwara LNG Facility documentation explicitly names the Ntorya Gas Field as the PRIMARY SUPPLY SOURCE.

https://mtwaralng.com/justification/

Not a future option. Not a maybe. Primary feedstock. Let that sink in.

“Primary Supply Sources: Ntorya Gas Field (Ruvuma Basin) – a key onshore discovery with ~1.3 TCF recoverable reserves, located just 30km from Mtwara.”

Now stack the real-world dominoes that are already falling:

• Tanzania–US investment talks now formally advancing LNG and critical energy infrastructure

• Yesterday’s front page news “President Samia addresses the nation today.” “…She has returned from the United States, LNG projects are ready.”

• Government explicitly prioritising gas-to-industry, LNG/CNG distribution, and domestic industrialisation and a push for acceleration. https://www.therespondents.co.tz/2025/12/deputy-minister-urges-tpdc-and-pura-to.html

• Mtwara LNG positioned as a national strategic energy hub

• Ntorya named as the PRIMARY SUPPLY source for that system

• Pipeline already funded and moving into build

• Rig tender strategy approved and advanced.

• Operator also advancing tender process for gas processing facility and field development.

This is no longer about “if”. This is about sequencing.

You cannot designate Ntorya as primary LNG feedstock without:

1. Appraising it properly

2. Locking in deliverability

3. Proving flow rates

4. De-risking long-term production

Which takes us straight to CH-1.

This is why the update has to come. Soon. This is why timelines are tightening, not stretching. This is why 2026 is going to be massive!

What Ufufuo says really cuts to the heart of it, the behaviour on these boards isn’t random. It follows the same rhythm every time the share price moves.

When the price eases off, the negativity suddenly becomes very loud, nonstop, and coordinated. Then, the moment the market finds a floor, volume returns, and price increases, that noise fades away.

But what matters most is this:

We are approaching the point where sentiment games simply stop working. Once the pipeline construction is physically underway, and TPDC’s own community-engagement programmes in Ntorya strongly suggest this is now imminent, the entire investment proposition shifts.

At that point:

• Revenues move from hypothetical to real.

• Development becomes execution, not debate.

• Valuation arguments become grounded in cashflow, not speculation.

• The “micro-cap vulnerability window” closes permanently.

This is why many of us are now far more focused on the operational milestones than on the day-to-day noise. Every credible signal from Tanzania: TPDC mobilisation, government communications, budget allocations, and local reporting is pointing in one direction: forward.

The transition from planning to implementation looks closer than many appreciate.

When that happens, the long-term holders will already be positioned. And this board will become a much more confident place.

Https://x.com/mzawaonline/status/1990109011488719126?s=46

In case anyone missed this important update from Mzawa (notably posted after the election period) shows TPDC running a community mobilisation programme specifically in the Ntorya area, aimed at preparing residents to protect natural gas infrastructure.

This isn’t a generic energy-sector event. The language is very explicit:

• “Protect natural gas infrastructure in the Ntorya area.”

• “TPDC is preparing to build the gas pipeline from Ntorya to Madimba.”

• “Major gas investment projects are ongoing.”

Community engagement of this type only happens when a project is moving from planning into execution. It is the step TPDC takes immediately before contractors begin physical work, whether that is land access, pipeline activity, or mobilisation of drilling and support services.

It also aligns perfectly with the Government’s current push to secure energy infrastructure and accelerate domestic gas usage, including LNG transition initiatives now rolling out nationwide.

For Ntorya, this is another clear indicator that the development phase is no longer theoretical. The operators, TPDC, and district authorities are signalling that project activity is imminent and that local cooperation will be essential as the next steps unfold.

Https://www.thecitizen.co.tz/tanzania/news/national/natural-gas-uptake-drives-surge-in-tanzania-s-revenue-growth-5285148

A new piece from The Citizen this morning quietly dropped one of the most important confirmations we’ve seen all year.

Tanzania’s government has now formally attributed a major surge in national revenue to natural gas, specifically earnings from Songo Songo and Mnazi Bay, and crucially, they credit this to a national shift toward cleaner, more cost-effective energy sources. Demand for gas is surging !

This matters because it confirms three things:

Tanzania is doubling down on natural gas as its primary economic engine.

Existing fields are now delivering record revenues, proving how central domestic gas is to the economic model.

The government is signalling, very clearly, that more gas supply is needed to meet demand and sustain growth.

That is the entire Ntorya investment case in one article.

A multi-TCF discovery that’s already sanctioned, with a pipeline awarded, ground mobilisation underway, and a CH-1 well designed to move the CPR and value base to an entirely different level, all in a country now publicly declaring gas as a core driver of national revenue.

Anyone suggesting Tanzania is turning away from gas hasn’t read the room. Or the news.

Gas demand is rising. Revenues are rising. Government reliance on gas is rising. That puts Ntorya in the strongest strategic position it has ever been in.

The macro is now fully aligned. We are simply waiting for the operational trigger.

Great spot, Ufufuo. What’s interesting here is how perfectly this aligns with Tanzania’s current push into industrial offtake… fertiliser, ceramics, cement, metals, LNG prep, CNG rollout, even the Zambia export line.

Higher global gas prices don’t just make Ntorya more valuable on paper… They strengthen Tanzania’s bargaining power today.

And with TPDC and the new Energy Minister openly talking about accelerating strategic gas projects, this backdrop is exactly what you’d want to see when they’re negotiating long-term supply frameworks.

Perfect timing! The macro winds are behind us now.

Https://nationalinterest.org/blog/energy-world/tanzania-provides-an-economic-blueprint-for-the-rest-of-africa

A major US foreign-policy journal has just published a full analysis praising Tanzania’s economic strategy.. and it explicitly highlights natural gas as the backbone of the country’s growth model. That alone tells you the scale of what’s unfolding. This isn’t a local puff piece. This is a heavyweight publication signalling that Tanzania has entered the global stage in a serious way.

For Ntorya, this is huge.

The government has just stabilised the political landscape, doubled down on economic delivery, and the new Energy Minister has immediately pushed TPDC to accelerate strategic projects. The direction is unmistakable: gas, infrastructure, LNG, and rapid implementation.

Ntorya sits right at the centre of that agenda.

A multi-TCF discovery, pipeline awarded, ground mobilisation underway, and a CH-1 well that the Board has already said will be drilled before pipeline completion. If Tanzania is being positioned as a model for Africa’s economic future, then Ntorya, the country’s largest onshore gas development, becomes one of the key proof points.

This is the moment when long-term value stories start to get recognised. The macro is aligning. The politics is aligning. The strategy is aligning. The gas is already there. Now we wait for the final operational trigger. That could come any moment!

And when it hits, the re-rating will be something to behold.

The last few weeks have been brutal, on the streets in Tanzania and on the AEX chart. Nobody should pretend otherwise.

But it’s worth zooming the lens out.

In the late 1960s the United States looked like it was coming apart at the seams.. protests, riots, assassinations, civilian deaths, Vietnam on the TV every night. If you’d judged the future of that country just from the front pages, you’d have written it off.

Yet out of that period came a huge push for stability, reform and growth. Within a decade the US had entered one of the most powerful economic and market expansions in its history. Political turmoil and ugly scenes didn’t stop that.. if anything, they forced the state to modernise and deliver.

Tanzania is at a similar inflection point. The election aftermath has been horrific in places, and it’s right that people feel uneasy read some of the stories and seeing some of the images. But look at what the new Energy Minister has been doing in the same window:

• Meeting PURA and explicitly calling for concrete strategies to accelerate oil and gas exploration across the country – Ruvu, Mkuranga, Tanga and more.

• Visiting TPDC and stressing speed, transparency and innovation in delivering strategic gas projects.

• TPDC’s own leadership committing to accelerating natural gas projects for domestic, industrial, automotive and power generation and promising major progress within the first 100 days of the new presidential term.

At the same time, Tanzania is talking openly about exporting power to Zambia via new interconnectors and positioning itself as a regional energy hub, not just a domestic one.

You don’t make those statements, and you don’t push your regulators that hard, if you’re planning to sit on a 3.45–7.95 Tcf onshore gas field and do nothing with it.

Ntorya sits right in the middle of this:

• It’s onshore, close to existing infrastructure.

• It already has a 25-year Development Licence and a GSA framework.

• The pipeline to Madimba is committed and budgeted.

• CH-1 is designed to unlock the full stacked-pay story and move the CPR and value base to an entirely different level.

After what’s just happened politically, jobs, power, growth and exports are not optional for this government, they’re survival issues. That makes fast-to-market gas like Ntorya more, not less, important.

The idea that nothing is happening, or that Tanzania is walking away from gas while it’s spelling out acceleration plans to PURA, TPDC and foreign partners, just doesn’t match the evidence.

History is messy. Headlines are ugly. But beneath the noise, the direction of travel is clear:

stability through growth, and growth through energy.

And that is exactly where Ntorya lives.

Great post, Ufufuo! .. and it’s worth stressing the obvious here:

Aminex and ARA are not Orca. Not even close.

Different PSA, different history, different relationship with the Tanzanian authorities, and a completely different strategic role.

While Orca fights over contract wording on a declining field, Ntorya is being pushed forward at full speed by the same government; pipeline funded, EPC awarded, compensation paid, CH-1 being prioritised, and the operator being leaned on to accelerate.

If anything, Orca’s gridlock strengthens Ntorya’s importance, because Tanzania needs new gas online quickly. And the one project they’ve ring-fenced, funded, and backed publicly all year is Ntorya.

This dispute doesn’t hurt Aminex one bit..

it highlights why Ntorya is the next pillar of the national gas plan.

If we’re doing lists, let’s at least do them properly.

(Although it looks like porky’s latest effort has gone missing…)

Twelve reasons the future for Aminex is the strongest it’s ever been and why I’m excited to be a shareholder:

1. Ntorya isn’t an exploration punt — it’s a development field. Licence granted, FDP approved, GSA signed, and a multi-year national plan built around it.

2. Pipeline is not an idea — it’s a funded project with a contractor appointed. Compensation paid, procurement completed, mobilisation underway, route prepared, seven to eight-month build window communicated publicly.

3. Processing and hook-up tenders are already out. You only tender for gas processing, fiscal metering, flowlines and HIPPS when you’re moving into full field execution.

4. ARA and the Tanzanian government want CH-1 drilled ASAP. PURA involvement says everything. You don’t escalate oversight unless you want speed, clarity and delivery. Rig news could drop any day now!

5. CH-1 isn’t a wildcat — it’s a high-confidence, high-impact well. Two successful wells already in the same system. CH-1 adds stacked pay and resource growth, not “pray and hope.”

6. Aminex is fully carried through the expensive phase. The operator pays the lion’s share for drilling, completion and major facilities. Most small caps dream of this setup.

7. Early cashflow doesn’t rely on CH-1. NT-1 and NT-2 are commercial and waiting to be tied in. The pipeline brings instant monetisation.

8. Onshore economics absolutely destroy offshore timelines. Cheap drilling, cheap infrastructure, near-existing facilities. That’s why this project moves.

9. Government policy is turning to gas — right now. Power expansion, industrial supply, fertiliser plants, LNG roadmap — all of it requires Ntorya volumes.

10. The JV has a formal, approved budget for the current fiscal year that explicitly includes CH-1. You don’t approve the cost unless you intend to execute.

11. Aminex is now funded to reach production.

No existential cash issue. No fear hanging over the company. They’ve given themselves runway to deliver.

12. The valuation is absurd relative to what’s coming. A carried 25% stake in a multi-TCF onshore project with a pipeline being built — all for a £70m market cap. That’s why long-term holders aren’t blinking.

If you want reasons to worry, you’ll find them.

If you want reasons to be bullish, you’ll find far more.

The difference is whether you’re looking backwards or forwards.

Superb post, Ufufuo.. balanced, sourced, and grounded in fact. It’s everything that prosciutto’s endless noise isn’t.

Let’s be clear: the Tanzanian government’s dispute with Orca is not a negative for Ntorya, it’s the catalyst for change. Orca’s stagnation and litigation are precisely why the state is accelerating ARA’s project. Tanzania cannot afford uncertainty over gas supply, and Ntorya is now the state’s designated replacement backbone.

The timing couldn’t be clearer:

Orca’s licence expires next year. Tanzania is already seeking alternative means to operate Songo Songo. The pipeline from Ntorya to Madimba is under construction. CH-1 is prepped to drill, providing the capacity to replace declining production.

That’s not theory, that’s transition in motion.

What prosciutto calls “doom” is, in reality, the very reason Aminex is positioned where it is: a fully carried, fully funded partner in Tanzania’s future gas supply. Orca represents the old model; private monopoly, low reinvestment, disputes with the government. ARA represents the new model - aligned with state priorities, local benefit, and strategic partners.

And that’s exactly why Aminex’s 25% stake has immense value.

Prosciutto’s pattern is obvious now: cherry-pick data, twist the context, omit the outcome. Every time, it’s the same cycle… fear first, truth later. But facts have a way of surviving the noise, and Ufufuo’s post lays them out plainly.

Ntorya isn’t the casualty here.. it’s the only solution !!

As the old saying goes:

“When one well runs dry, another begins to flow.”

It’s worth keeping things perspective. Tanzania’s politics have always had internal factions, it’s part of CCM’s history since Nyerere. What matters for Aminex/ARA isn’t the noise in Dar, but continuity of state projects, and those remain fully backed.

Energy security is non-negotiable for Tanzania. The government’s pipeline contracts are signed, compensation paid, and work already mobilised. That doesn’t stop because of election turbulence. The state and military both rely on gas revenue, it’s the stabilising pillar, not a casualty.

Ntorya is c.500km from the capital and led by ARA, an Omani operator that’s used to navigating tough jurisdictions. The project’s momentum is intact.

Every Tanzanian election brings a few dramatic headlines, then it settles. This will be no different.

Eyes on the real catalysts… rig contract, CH-1 drill date, and first gas countdown.

No, I wouldn’t have sold a single share at 2.25p. I was, and am still, accumulating.

What Roger and I were pointing out isn’t about hindsight trading, it’s about recognising what actually drove the price action. The rise to 2.4p came after the pipeline timeline was confirmed and the EPC contract formally in motion, a genuine value event. The recent pullback, meanwhile, has nothing to do with fundamentals; it’s simply the aftershock of the equity raise.

To me, that’s all just background noise. The real story - and the real re-rate - begins with the CH-1 drill and the ramp-up to production. That’s when sentiment and valuation both move for good.

Roger, absolutely spot on. You’ve called it exactly as it happened. Anyone who watches the tape closely could see the spoofing patterns in real time: the artificial support, the perfectly timed micro-buys, the controlled unwind before the placing. This wasn’t theory, it was textbook pre-placement choreography.

But what we know now is that there are institutions who have loaded up heavily around 1.7p. You don’t deploy millions at this stage unless you know what’s coming next and have assurances on timing and upcoming progress!

We’re in the final stretch before the rig contract; PURA driving the process, and CH-1 marked as a government priority. The setup from here is clear: once that RNS drops, the re-rate begins.

Crusty, I’ve actually gone through the daily tape in detail, thanks.

The huge volumes after the placing RNS didn’t move the price because they weren’t standard retail trades; they were off-book institutional distributions clearing placement stock. That kind of volume doesn’t spike the ticker, it just churns through supply quietly.

Meanwhile, in the week before the placing, Aminex’s usual illiquidity means even modest volume is enough to move price, and it did. Hundreds of small full-ask prints went through daily, clearly propping the price to facilitate offloading ahead of the announcement.

Anyone watching closely could see the tell-tale pattern: controlled price support, then a sharp unwind before the RNS. It’s classic pre-placement behaviour, not fantasy, just how the market works when institutions manage size in an illiquid microcap.

Come on Crusty, you’re obviously not that naive to think the trading linked to the placing only started after it was announced. The drop began a full week before the RNS - from around 2.25p down - and it was clear the news had leaked through brokers and was being front-run. It happens in almost every small-cap placing, and this one was no different.

Crusty, that’s just not accurate.

You ask if a definitive pipeline date “moved the dial”? Yes, it did. The moment we had formal confirmation of the EPC and a timeline, the share price almost doubled from the low 1s to 2.4p. The only reason we’ve pulled back since is because of the equity raise, no one could have predicted that, and it’s got nothing to do with sentiment or fundamentals.

IMO It’ll be the same story with the rig. Once the contract is signed and the spud window is in black and white, sentiment flips overnight, because the project stops being theory and becomes execution. Just like the pipeline.

Whether CH-1 spuds in February or July makes no massive difference, the direction of travel is set, the urgency for gas is real, and Tanzania needs Ntorya online. ARA, PURA and TPDC are fully aligned on getting that done.

You’re right, only time will tell. But timing’s catching up fast.

Yes, we will see..

But the reality is that the exact quarter matters far less than the confirmation itself. The moment the rig contract drops and the CH-1 spud window is locked in, sentiment flips. That’s the point at which Aminex shifts from “if” to “when.”

Whether that spud lands in Q1, April, or even July shouldn’t make a huge difference to the market reaction. Once ARA confirms the drill and the rig is secured, the uncertainty discount that’s been suppressing the share price disappears overnight.

We know PURA has stepped in to accelerate the rig process, ARA’s drilling before the pipeline completes, and government urgency for domestic gas couldn’t be clearer. A formalised drill contract in the near term, regardless of quarter, is the catalyst that re-rates Aminex. Most Investors will want to take positions in advance of the pre drill run up as that is where a huge part of the rise will occur. So we should see a big re rate once everything is confirmed and we finally get that spud date window confirmed! GLA