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Crusty, the reality is the “wait” you’re talking about doesn’t really exist anymore.

We already know from the AGM that CH-1 will be drilled before the pipeline is finished. We’ve been told that the Tanzanian govt are literally “pushing like crazy” to get it done, which is why PURA stepped in to fast-track the rig process. That’s not talk, that’s Tanzania’s energy ministry shifting gears because the country needs new gas flow, and Ntorya is the only field ready to deliver it.

Songo Songo is in decline, Mnazi Bay is trying to maintain production, and industrial demand is exploding before our eyes, even with the JNHPP hydro project now online, the Ministry’s own Power Master Plan forecasts a 60 MMscf/d gas deficit as soon as 2026!

So yes, urgency is very real. The government doesn’t have the luxury of delay. The rig contract is the next domino, and once that’s signed, everything lines up for a Q1 / early Q2 spud IMO.

When the market realises the drill is imminent and pre-pipeline, sentiment won’t flip slowly. It’ll snap.

Good call Alcapone, I’m with you on that as I feel we are in the rig news window from now until December.

So 18th November feels perfectly realistic for the next RNS drop. We’ve already had confirmation pipeline procurement underway and mobilisation this month, PURA stepping in to fast-track the rig process, and Aminex stating clearly that CH-1 will drill before pipeline completion. All of that points to final rig award and mobilisation being imminent; it’s procedural now, not speculative.

The big picture’s simple: Tanzania wants gas flowing, the government are pushing like crazy for Ntorya gas, TPDC’s got the line moving, and the government’s energy plan depends on Ntorya. The stars are aligned.

Once the rig contract is signed and the CH-1 window is fixed in black and white, sentiment flips overnight ! News could drop any day…

Superb post, Ufufuo.. that’s exactly the level of clarity this board needed.

What prosciutto keeps doing, week after week (without break - very professional), is lift selective lines from company filings and dress them up as if they’re breaking revelations. But every time you check the dates, the numbers, and the actual context, the scare story collapses under its own weight.

What prosciutto is doing now is flogging an old narrative that belonged to the pre-reform era. TANESCO in 2014 and TANESCO in 2025 are not the same company; profit-making, digitally modernised, and part of a nationwide power-sector overhaul backed by the African Development Fund.

Dragging up decade-old liquidity issues while ignoring record profits and a successfully executed settlement is not “research”… it’s disinformation.

And for Aminex investors, the bigger picture couldn’t be clearer. Tanzania is reforming, paying its bills, and pushing gas development harder than ever. The Ntorya–Madimba pipeline is mobilising for construction, PURA has instructed ARA to fast-track the rig tender, and CH-1 is fully carried and imminent.

The energy landscape that Prosciutto keeps trying to paint as unstable is the very reason Ntorya is so strategic. Tanzania needs new gas now, and lots of it, and that’s exactly what Aminex and ARA are delivering.

So yes, the trolls can keep trying to turn gold into lead.

But all they’re really doing is highlighting who’s holding the gold ;-)

….

Gas is the growth engine.

Ntorya is the feedstock.

Aminex is the leverage.

Buckle up !!

For months the narrative has been wrong. Headlines and “experts” have painted a picture of Tanzania’s gas demand weakening because of the new Julius Nyerere hydro dam.

Then along comes Tanzania Petroleum with a forensic, data-driven report that completely flips that story on its head, and proves what many of us already knew: Tanzania’s gas demand is not falling. It’s accelerating.

https://tanzaniapetroleum.com/2025/10/15/dont-believe-the-headlines-despite-the-dam-tanzanias-gas-demand-is-still-surging/?noamp=available

The report, titled “Don’t Believe the Headlines – Despite the Dam, Tanzania’s Gas Demand Is Still Surging,” pulls official data from Orca Energy, Maurel & Prom, and the Ministry of Energy’s 2024 Power System Master Plan. It shows, beyond doubt, that:

• The supposed “32 % collapse” in gas output was completely misleading. Real production only dipped 1.6 %, entirely due to Orca’s ageing Songas field and the failed SS-7 workover.

• Maurel & Prom’s Mnazi Bay output actually rose +19 % year-on-year, driven by industrial demand that’s still climbing quarter after quarter.

• The Bank of Tanzania’s headline figures ignored the real operational data, which is audited, granular and verified.

And here’s the killer line: the Ministry’s updated Power System Master Plan forecasts a 60 MMscf/d gas deficit as soon as 2026 – before accounting for the likely loss of Songas capacity in 2026. That deficit could more than double without new supply.

That’s the context in which Ntorya is being developed.

While the northern and coastal fields are declining, the southern corridor is where the growth is, and that’s exactly where Aminex’s 25 %-carried interest sits. The Ntorya to Madimba pipeline is the government’s direct answer to this looming deficit: secure, onshore, low-cost gas feeding the national grid.

Phase 1 (60 MMscf/d) isn’t a cap, it’s the start of a system designed to scale to 280 MMscf/d. The Power System Master Plan itself references ongoing expansion of gas-fired power plants, CNG and LNG corridors, and industrial users that will need that gas flow.

Every line of this report confirms it:

• Hydropower is seasonal and unreliable.

• Gas remains the backbone of grid stability.

• Industrial and transport consumption are surging (+46 % and +35 % respectively).

• New thermal plants and the Standard Gauge Railway will double electricity demand.

That’s not a backdrop for weakness, that’s the setup for a national gas boom.

Ntorya isn’t just another field being tied in, it’s the core solution to Tanzania’s next-decade energy strategy. And for Aminex, fully carried, debt-free, and holding a 25 % stake in a multi-TCF basin with condensate upside, this report is nothing short of a validation of the entire investment case.

The market is still pricing Aminex as if the dam solved Tanzania’s energy needs. Reality says otherwise.

Gas is

Let’s clear up the IG “short data” myth once and for all.

The 9% figure on IG means nothing in real terms. It’s simply the percentage of spread-bet accounts currently positioned short; not a measure of total market exposure, not institutional, and not indicative of any directional bias in the actual underlying shares.

IG’s client base is almost entirely short-term retail traders, many of whom trade both sides of the same stock in small size. There are almost always shorts open on every active ticker, it’s part of how their book stays balanced. 9% is actually low-normal for a small cap.

If you want a proper measure of sentiment, look at liquidity, market maker behaviour, and trade flow, not a leveraged platform’s internal retail data. There are no institutional shorts reported in Aminex!

And let’s be honest: anyone shorting a fully carried, government-backed gas development at 1.7p, with the rig tender signed off and a national pipeline under construction, is gambling against both logic and timing.

Crusty, I’d have to disagree there; I don’t see any evidence that a Q1 spud is off the cards.

It’s been about five weeks since the rig tender closed, and that’s a perfectly normal timeframe for evaluation, PURA sign-off and contract drafting. PURA were specifically brought in to expedite the process... Their role is to ensure this doesn’t drag; the Tanzanian Government want CH-1 moving as quickly as possible.

The 26 Sept RNS wording is also very telling:

“Once contracted, the rig will be deployed to drill Chikumbi-1 and subsequently undertake a workover of Ntorya-1.”

That phrasing isn’t accidental. “Once contracted, the rig will be deployed” makes it clear there’s no gap, no shared rig, and no waiting period between signature and action. It means the selected rig is being secured on a direct, stand-alone basis, ready to move the moment the ink is dry.

Combine that with the AGM confirmation that CH-1 will be drilled before pipeline completion, and it paints a consistent picture… this isn’t a vague 2026 plan. It’s a government-driven priority well, backed by PURA and TPDC, and the momentum is forward.

Add in the looming expiry of Orca’s Songo Songo licence (Oct 2026), which creates real pressure to secure new domestic gas supply, and the incentive for Tanzania to get Ntorya producing at meaningful levels next year becomes obvious.

All things considered, the timeline still stacks up perfectly: rig award this quarter, mobilisation through Dec–Jan, and spud late Jan or Feb, perhaps slipping to March to allow for mobilisation delays.

From where I’m sitting, and based on what we know, Q1 remains not just realistic, it’s the logical outcome based on every official signal we’ve had.

I really don’t buy that takeover theory, it doesn’t stand up to basic logic.

If Eclipse / ARA had any intention of taking Aminex over, they’ve just had the perfect opportunity to do it quietly and cheaply. Instead, Eclipse went out of its way to stay below 30%, right on the eve of the most transformational phase in the company’s history.

That’s not how a buyer behaves. A predator doesn’t stop one step short of triggering a mandatory bid… especially before a major value event like CH-1. They would’ve crossed the threshold long ago when the price was a fraction of what it is now.

And as for the reverse takeover theory, that’s a complete non-starter. Aminex isn’t a shell… it’s a fully operational, fully carried gas producer-in-waiting on the main market. RTOs are used when a private company wants to gain a listing, not when both entities are already aligned and one already holds the operating reins. It simply doesn’t fit.

What this actually shows is the opposite: Eclipse is positioning as a supportive cornerstone investor, not a raider. They’ve cleared the debt, strengthened their stake, and left the company debt-free and fully funded to first gas. That gives Aminex clean financials, institutional stability, and a solid base going into the drill and production build-out.

It’s important to separate Eclipse’s position from the placing dynamics. Eclipse haven’t sold a single share… any movement from a 27%+ holder would, of course, require a TR-1 notification, and none has been issued.

What’s actually happening is forward selling of the placing allocation ahead of admission on 20 October. That’s normal market practice; the initial placees act as intermediaries, pre-selling stock to institutional and high-net-worth buyers, often at a small premium to the placing price, if demand is strong.

It’s called distribution. And the fact it’s being absorbed this efficiently, with the price holding near 1.8p, shows real underlying demand and is a very bullish indicator.

At this rate, it looks like the entire placing will be forward sold this week, and all at a material premium to 1.65p. That’s not weakness, that’s institutional positioning. Whoever took the paper clearly wanted exposure before the next leg up. When discounted stock is being sold higher into strength, it’s usually a sign that confidence, and timing, are aligned…

Hi Crusty,

This can be cross checked. There are now 4,468,501,044 shares in issue, and before the RNS there were 4,219,167,024.

So total new shares issued being 249,334,020 which is equal to the Placing Shares plus the Converted Shares.

I agree, the placing seems too high to cover to expected first revenues. Perhaps it was not so much about capital to cover costs, but letting someone in via the back door and this is how much they wanted to invest …? Who knows, but the positive is that we’re debt free and fully funded ! :-)

Unfortunately you’re wrong again Crusty, and the RNS is factually correct.

You’re missing the key distinction between new shares created and who they went to.

The total new issue was 249.3 million shares, not just the 177 million placing. The distinction is very clear in the RNS, we have the “Placing Shares” AND the “Converted Shares”.

Total new share capital made up of:

+72,061,293 conversion shares for Eclipse

+177,272,727 placing shares for new investors

That’s the entire increase in share capital disclosed in the RNS. So when I model Eclipse “taking all of the new issue,” that necessarily means their own 72 m PLUS the 177 m placing, because those are the new shares created.

If Eclipse had hypothetically taken both blocks (249 m total), their holding would be about 1.402 billion shares out of roughly 4.47 billion post-issue = around 31.4 %, which breaches the 30 % threshold.

Crusty, the issue here isn’t what the RNS says, it’s how you’re reading it.

The percentage change you’ve quoted (27.34% to 27.43%) looks tiny because you’re comparing Eclipse’s enlarged holding against an enlarged share base, not the old one.

Here are the actual numbers:

Pre-transaction shares in issue: 4,219,167,025

Eclipse pre-holding: 1,153,536,807 (27.34%)

Conversion: +72,061,293 shares

Post-conversion Eclipse total: 1,225,598,100 shares

Now, if you compared that new holding against the old share base, Eclipse’s stake would have jumped to roughly 29.05%, i.e. right up near the 30% takeover threshold under the UK Takeover Code.

However, because the placing added 177,272,727 new shares for other investors, the overall denominator expanded to roughly 4.47 billion shares, which diluted everyone slightly, inc Eclipse, bringing Eclipse’s visible holding back down to 27.43%.

The fact remains, if Eclipse had taken all 177,272,727 placing shares themselves, in addition to the their Converted Shares, their total holding would have risen to around 1.402 billion shares, equal to roughly 31.4% of the company, well above the takeover trigger. So BG’s observation is correct and very important..

So the “0.09% increase” line is completely misleading.

In reality, Eclipse added a material £1.5m+ position which was balanced with the placing dilution..

And well spotted, BlackGold, a really important catch.

A lot of investors have worried that ARA might eventually move to take Aminex out on the cheap. But the facts show the opposite.

By converting more debt without crossing the 30% threshold, Eclipse / ARA has made it crystal clear… They don’t want control, they want value growth.

Eclipse now sits around 27.4%, right below the takeover line, and that positioning speaks volumes.

If their plan was a stealth takeover, they’d have bought the rest outright. Instead, they’ve just turned over £1.5m+ of debt into equity, locking themselves further in, but still staying under the takeover trigger.

That tells you everything. They’re here for the upside, not the ownership. They want Aminex to revalue naturally through production, CPR upgrade, and market rerate… the same journey we’re all waiting for.

A very good sign for every shareholder who’s in this for the long game.

That’s incorrect Crusty..

Circa 105,000,000 shares is around 2.35% of the company.

If Eclipse took all 177,272,727 of the Placing Shares, in addition to their Converted Shares, they would be well above 30% !

In fact, 31.4%..

Converting over $1.5 million of debt into equity is never a trivial move, regardless of the exact percentage shift. If Eclipse believed they’d get a better entry, they could have simply waited. They’re not obliged to convert now, it’s entirely their choice when to exercise.

By choosing to lock in at this level, they’ve effectively deepened their equity exposure right before the two biggest catalysts the company has faced in years, the rig contract and CH-1 drill. That’s not a “rounding error,” it’s a clear show of confidence in timing.

Appreciate the considered view, Pete; always a good exchange.

Just one thing I’d add: One thing we can be sure of is that Eclipse are no fools. You don’t convert over $1.5 million of debt to equity now if you believe the price is heading lower or that delays are coming. If they expected a better entry point, they’d simply extend the facility and wait. $1.5m is a meaningful amount no matter how deep your pockets.

Converting now locks them deeper into the equity story, at a time when both the pipeline and CH-1 rig contracts are moving toward execution. That’s not a token gesture but a clear signal of conviction from a party who’s been close to the project for years.

Anyway, that’s my opinion, and I believe this has now set a new higher floor as the launchpad for the next move up. As you say, rig news is the all important next step, and that news could drop any day now..

Your post is overlooking something though Crusty..

Eclipse converting $1.5m of debt (plus interest) into equity right now tells you everything you need to know about expected timing. If they genuinely anticipated a long drift or a delayed CH-1, they’d have extended the loan and converted later at a lower price.

Instead, they’ve chosen to increase equity exposure at current levels. That’s a strategic commitment, not a defensive move. It aligns them directly with the incoming investors and shows confidence that execution, rig award and CH-1 drilling, is coming into focus, not fading into distance.

You don’t add into equity before a lull. You do it when you expect momentum. And Eclipse will know better than anyone about the expected timing of CH1…

Fair point on the wording, Fowler, I could have phrased it better, but to clarify, the point wasn’t that it isn’t dilution in a technical sense (obviously new shares = dilution, no escaping that), but that the intent and impact here are completely different to the usual meaning of the word.

This isn’t a cash-grab or desperation raise, it’s a small, strategic clean-up designed to make Aminex fully funded to first gas, remove all debt, and eliminate uncertainty ahead of the execution phase.

At just c.6% dilution, in return for full funding through to revenue and a debt-free balance sheet, it’s one of the most constructive fundraises the company has done. And the timing, immediately before rig award and mobilisation, speaks volumes.

And I disagree with your take on timing of CH1. No placee would commit at 1.65p if they thought months of drift lay ahead. They’d simply wait and execute cheaper on market weakness. The fact it was done now tells you confidence is high that the rig award and drill programme are imminent.

Appreciate the comment, Fowler, but to clarify, my point wasn’t that a placing doesn’t create dilution. It’s that this raise wasn’t about destructive dilution, it was strategic.

We’re talking about just under 6% dilution, a modest trade-off to make the company debt-free, fully funded to revenue, and cleanly aligned with its largest shareholder. That’s balance-sheet housekeeping before execution, not a survival raise.

If the company were still uncertain on timing, they’d have waited. Doing this now, before the rig award and spud, tells you exactly what’s coming. The decks are being cleared for action, not for survival.