Member Info for Prospero26

Ii mainly but spread with some others

Can get a firm price for 4.5m right now Watchouse…

Regarding managing your exit in due course, you just need to sell into the significant volume uplift that will arrive around the time of the drill and first gas… things still seem and are quite illiquid, but that will change!

I can get a firm price quote for 3,000,000 - 1.756p. I was able to get a firm price quote for up to 6,000,000 shares the other day. That’s the most I’ve experienced for a long time. It seems like the MM’s have developed quite an appetite…

EarEye. This argument falls apart once you separate language, context, and logistics.

The article in question is no doubt derived from Swahili-source reporting, where “drilling” is routinely used as a broad term for gas extraction and field development equipment, not a precise reference to an exploration drilling rig (in fact other articles on the same subject have referenced “gas extraction equipment”). That nuance matters.

The context makes this obvious: 1,000+ tonnes per shipment. Multiple consignments. Port infrastructure readiness. Heavy-duty handling capacity

That is field development and production hardware, processing equipment, flowlines, compression, infrastructure, exploration rig mobilisation it ain’t! Anyone with very basic upstream experience knows a drilling rig does not move like that, nor on that scale.

CH-1 drilling is a separate work programme, already covered by: tenders received and under evaluation, casings and wellheads already on site, civil works (including the CH-1 well pad) scheduled to commence this month, per RNS.

Crucially, no competent operator builds a well pad and access road in January / Q1 if drilling isn’t expected for another year. Leaving a completed pad idle creates unnecessary security exposure, erosion risk, weather damage, and maintenance cost. Pads are constructed tight to drilling schedules, not 12 months early. And we should start to see evidence of the civil works soon on the satellite imagery. Give them a chance, we are still in Jan when works are scheduled to start.

So conflating translated terminology with rig logistics, then declaring timelines “slipped”, isn’t analysis, it’s just a misunderstanding. Let’s wait for official news from the company before jumping to conclusions. What we know from the company is that the CH1 well pad and access road is due to start construction this month and that all tenders for the rig contract have been received (we should get news of a decision soon and then a spud window).

This conclusion simply does not follow from the facts, and it’s based on a fundamental misunderstanding of sequencing.

Nothing in the RNS’s, the regulator-attended workshops, or media coverage suggests CH-1 is being deferred to end-2026. In fact, the evidence points the other way. Key points that matter:

1) Civils are sched to start January 2026, not mid-year. The December RNS explicitly states that civil works, including CH-1 well pad preparation, are scheduled to commence this month. You don’t begin CH-1-specific civils in January if your plan is to drill 11–12 months later ! That would be operationally irrational.

2) CH-1 is sequenced before NT-1 workover

Both the RNS and third-party reporting confirm that: CH-1 drilling, NT-1 workover, NT-2 flow testing are part of a single, integrated 2026 programme, with 2026 budget approved.

Crucially, NT-1 workover happens after CH-1 drilling.

That alone rules out a December/January CH-1, because it would push NT-1 well beyond the year, directly contradicting the stated programme.

3) Regulator-attended workshops are openly discussing drilling this year. ARA did not brief PURA and TPDC in a formal technical workshop and publicly reference: drilling of CH-1, NT-1 workover, NT-2 flow testing, if those activities were nearly a year away.

That kind of coordinated, third-party disclosure only happens when execution windows are being locked in, not when plans are speculative.

4) “1,000’s of tonnes of equipment” does not mean the CH1 drill rig. The cited shipments beginning in August relate to full field development and production infrastructure, not an appraisal well.

Heavy cargo of that scale is entirely consistent with: gas processing and separation equipment, compression systems, pipework, manifolds and metering, power generation and control systems, long-lead production facilities.

Nowhere does the reporting state that these shipments relate to the CH-1 drilling rig. In fact, drilling rigs are typically: contracted under a separate programme, mobilised earlier and independently, orders of magnitude lighter than full production plant.

Conflating multi-thousand-tonne production cargo with an appraisal rig is simply incorrect. Those shipments point to field build-out, not the start date of CH-1.

5) The timeline logic breaks under scrutiny

If CH-1 were really planned for Dec 2026 / Jan 2027: CH-1 civils would not be starting in January 2026, NT-1 workover would not be sequenced within the same year, Regulators would not be publicly briefed on drilling sequences now

Yet all three are happening. That tells you everything you need to know.

This isn’t about optimism, it’s about reading the sequence correctly.

CH-1 is IMO being positioned as a mid 2026 operation, aligned with: approved budgets, awarded civil contracts, regulator-aligned execution planning.

Just have a tad more patience and you will see progress on the satellite imagery. We’re onl

Https://uchumi360.com/energy/oil-gas/tanzanias-strategic-gas-pipeline-tpdc-advances-the-ntoryamadimba-natural-gas-link

This isn’t “another article”. This is state-level narrative alignment. When an independent Tanzanian macro platform with 35k+ followers publishes a long-form piece framing the Ntorya–Madimba pipeline as economic leverage, something important has shifted.

This is no longer project communication. It’s nation-building language. Read it carefully and you’ll see what’s really happening:

This pipeline is now being publicly positioned as:

• core energy infrastructure

• industrial backbone

• long-term economic security

• investment confidence anchor

That framing doesn’t happen by accident. It happens after decisions are made, not before. And crucially, this article doesn’t talk about Ntorya as a future option.

It talks about it as a system already being integrated into Tanzania’s economic DNA. That’s the tell. Governments don’t soft-sell strategic infrastructure while still debating whether upstream supply will exist.

They don’t publish confidence language unless volumes, timing, and execution are internally aligned.

The language has moved from:

“potential” to dependable supply

“exploration” to economic leverage

“project” to backbone

That transition only happens when:

• upstream is locked

• timelines are coordinated

• execution risk has dropped below political tolerance

And suddenly, after years of almost silence, we get:

• multiple outlets

• consistent messaging

• regulator-adjacent platforms

• explicit pipeline + upstream linkage

That’s not PR. That’s permission being granted for the story to be told. Markets always lag this phase.

By the time drilling dates are spelled out in black and white, the smart money is already positioned, because the context was broadcast first. This is the context !!

Https://www.ippmedia.com/the-guardian/news/local-news/read/new-3d-seismic-data-hitting-at-wider-mtwara-gas-reserves-2026-01-16-121228

After years of near-total operational silence, something important has changed. Multiple independent media outlets are now reporting the same message:

Ntorya is moving from interpretation to execution.

This latest piece, stemming from an ARA-led technical workshop in Dar es Salaam attended by PURA and TPDC, does three things:

1. Confirms revised 3D seismic interpretation pointing to ~3.45 TCF across the wider Mtwara licence, around double earlier estimates.

2. Publicly aligns regulators and the national oil company with that interpretation, in a formal technical setting.

3. Explicitly references drilling and workover timing, including NT-1 workover, NT-2 flow testing, and the drilling of CH-1.

That last point matters most.

For the first time, drill sequencing is being discussed openly in a very public domain, not via company RNS wording, but through third-party reporting tied to regulator-attended workshops. That’s a material shift in tone.

This isn’t promotional noise. It’s process transparency. When multiple outlets independently echo the same operational roadmap, after years of nothing, it usually means the internal decision-making phase is over and execution windows are being locked in.

And coordinated messaging, involving ARA, PURA, and TPDC, only happens when timelines are no longer theoretical. The market can decide what to do with that. It will catch on soon enough!

I read the article differently.

The reference to 1,000’s of tonnes of “drilling equipment arriving from August” looks to me like full field development mobilisation, not the CH-1 appraisal well itself.

CH-1 should be drilled before permanent development equipment is finalised, because its results (flow rates, stacked pay, pressures, gas quality) determine the final processing and facility specs.

That’s exactly why the Board was clear at the AGM that CH-1 comes before pipeline completion, not after large-scale infrastructure is already locked in.

So I still see this as a separate downstream workstream, with CH-1 likely earlier and the heavy kit following once the field is fully defined.

There is clearly a huge amount being planned for outside of what we are aware of! 2026 will be massive!!

Hi Tom

If civil works and well-pad construction are starting this month, as advised, a December 2026 spud does not make operational sense.

Well-pad construction is a critical-path activity. It is scheduled to feed directly into rig mobilisation and drilling, not to sit idle for months. Once capital is committed to civils, the programme is designed to move forward, not pause.

Leaving a completed pad unused for extended periods creates multiple issues. From a security perspective, an idle pad becomes a liability requiring ongoing guarding and management. From an engineering perspective, exposed groundworks are subject to weather degradation, drainage issues, erosion and re-work risk, all of which add unnecessary cost and inefficiency. Contractors and operators avoid this unless there is a compelling reason, which would be highly unusual at this stage.

In practice, civil works only commence when downstream elements… rig availability, services, casing and logistics … are sufficiently aligned to follow through. Starting civils now signals intent to progress toward spud in the near term, not at the end of the year.

A December spud would imply pad construction much later than January or even Q1. If civils are genuinely beginning now, and should proof on the satellite imagery soon, the timeline clearly points to a materially earlier spud.

Spot on, Ufufuo. This is exactly the kind of macro confirmation that matters. A $3bn USD commitment over c.4 years to gas monetisation isn’t theory, it’s policy, capital, and execution. In a c.$79bn GDP economy, that’s not incremental spend, it’s structural investment !!

What’s important here is where that money flows:

• Industrial power

• Manufacturing hubs

• Logistics, ports, processing

• Domestic energy substitution

• Long-term baseload demand

That doesn’t get powered by imported LNG fantasies, it gets powered by onshore, scalable, reliable, affordable domestic gas. And that’s where Ntorya fits.

For anyone still staring at the tape day-to-day, it’s worth lifting your eyes a little.

The next six to eight weeks are shaping up to be one of the most important periods this project has seen in years… not because of speculation, but because this is when physical execution starts to show itself.

Here’s the real-world sequence we’re moving into… not hope, not theory, but execution.

1. Fabricated pipeline materials shipped to site

This is the first physical signal that the project has moved off the page and into delivery mode.

2. Start of pipeline construction

Groundworks, trenching, and pipe-lay begin. From this point on, progress becomes visible and measurable.

3. Award of NT-2 works and tie-in contract

Critical step toward near-term monetisation and proof that existing discoveries are being brought online.

4. Award of the CH-1 drilling rig contract

The moment CH-1 moves from “planned” to “scheduled” with defined mobilisation and spud windows.

5. Commencement of civil works at Ntorya

Site preparation across the field, including access, infrastructure, and enabling works.

6. Construction of the CH-1 well pad

Once the pad is being built, the drill is no longer optional… it’s operationally committed.

7. Rig mobilisation to site

Equipment, crews, and logistics moving into position. This is where timelines tighten fast.

8. Physical confirmation via satellite imagery

Independent, visible proof of progress that removes any remaining doubt about execution.

This isn’t a single headline event… it’s a stacked sequence, and once it starts, it doesn’t stop.

The next 6–8 weeks are about watching these steps unfold, one after another.

Thanks for sharing Ufufuo!

Tanzania is certainly locking in demand:

• Coast Region manufacturing hub with TZS 180bn already committed

• A TZS 8.5trn industrial build-out target

• Enforced 12-month start timelines

• Government-led gas distribution

Manufacturing doesn’t run on hope… it runs on secure, cheap gas.

This isn’t upstream theory. It’s downstream pull meeting supply.

Industrialisation follows energy. In Tanzania, that energy is gas, and Ntorya is coming online right on time !!

Top post Ufufuo!

Cove. Hardman. Africa Oil. Heritage. PanOcean. Tullow.

Different basins, same movie.

The market always refuses to price strategic value until the inflection point is unavoidable, then it reprices violently.

That disconnect isn’t a mystery. It’s the setup. Ignore the pattern if you want; history won’t.

Happy New Year Ufufuo ! And good work in doing exactly what serious investors should be doing:

tracking real-world demand signals, not staring at a ticker.

Gas-powered vessels docking in Dar isn’t “noise”, it’s more evidence.

It tells you three things very clearly:

1. Gas demand in Tanzania is not theoretical anymore It’s expanding across power, industry, transport, and now maritime. That’s structural, not cyclical.

2. Infrastructure decisions are being made with long-term confidence. You don’t convert fleets, ports, and supply chains on a whim. These are multi-decade bets.

3. Ntorya sits right in the middle of this demand curve

Onshore, low-cost, domestically prioritised gas feeding a country that is visibly accelerating consumption.

Markets don’t price transitions early, they price execution milestones. And those milestones are now lining up month by month over the coming year.

It is a case of connecting dots that are already on the page:

• civil works

• rig contract and mobilisation

• pipeline build

• NT-2 tie-in

• CH-1 drilling

• first gas

• expanding offtake channels

Ignore the noise. Follow the infrastructure. Follow the demand. That’s where real value shows up and always has.

2026 is now about execution, not debate. Watch the satellite images this month for confirmation ;-)

Https://www.timesofisrael.com/as-major-egypt-gas-deal-burns-through-reserves-public-will-end-up-paying-the-price/

Worth stepping back and looking at the bigger picture for a moment.

This article doing the rounds is about Egypt burning through its gas reserves to satisfy export deals, with domestic consumers ultimately footing the bill. And while that story isn’t about Aminex directly, it highlights something the market consistently underestimates.

Gas isn’t just a commodity. It’s strategic. What Egypt is grappling with now is what happens when export ambitions outrun domestic supply planning. Once gas becomes scarce at home, prices rise, political pressure follows, and governments are forced to rethink priorities.

Tanzania has taken a very different path. Here, we’re seeing pipelines built first. With our pipes already fabricated. Processing capacity expanded first. Power generation and industrial demand planned in parallel with upstream development. The Ntorya–Madimba pipeline isn’t about exporting molecules at any cost, it’s about securing domestic energy, stabilising power supply, and supporting industrial growth.

That distinction really matters. Because projects tied into national energy security don’t live or die by short-term sentiment. They sit inside government policy, infrastructure spend, and long-dated demand curves. And that’s why steel in the ground matters more than opinions on a message board.

CH-1 isn’t about proving gas exists. We already know that it does in enormous quantities. It’s about scale, deliverability, and how fast volumes can be monetised into a system that needs them.

Egypt is now learning, expensively by the looks of it, that gas without domestic planning creates problems. Tanzania is doing the opposite. And companies embedded in that strategy don’t get valued like explorers forever.

That’s why 2026 isn’t about hope any more. It’s about consequence and execution...

Excellent post and I absolutely agree Ufufuo. When you strip it back, the maths is compelling: vastly more gas per share than pre-NT2, but now with infrastructure funded, pipeline steel already rolled, and a fully carried drill ahead. That’s another key difference this time - execution is locked in.

At c.1.6p the market is still pricing this like theory. With pipeline construction underway and CH-1 imminent, a re-rating to 10p+, even 15p+, on success doesn’t feel ambitious at all, it feels logical.

2026 is where the valuation disconnect finally closes.

I could see how one could reach that conclusion Ufufuo ;-)

This time when we break through 2p, we won’t look back! Nothing to hold us back now that concrete is about to be poured for the CH1 drill site, and fabricated pipelines received on site.. we’re in execution mode.

CH1 is potentially one of the biggest onshore Nat gas drills in history and nobody will want to be out once we have a clear line of sight to spud !

Well said Ufufuo!

When you actually add it up, it’s staggering how much capital is going into Ntorya relative to Aminex’s size.. and how little of it shareholders are funding directly.

Between the Tanzanian-funded pipeline and the free carry, Aminex is effectively being taken through a $100m+ development phase without the dilution that would normally destroy a company at this stage. That’s a huge structural advantage and very easy for the market to overlook.

This isn’t speculative spend either! it’s steel, pipe, wells and civil works. Execution money, not hope money. That’s why 2026 feels different.

The carry really is a luxury few juniors ever get.

For me personally, this has now stopped being a “what if” story and become a question of when the market finally catches up.

At around 1.5p today, Aminex is still priced like CH-1 is some distant idea rather than a well that’s being actively prepared for. Tenders are in, being evaluated, civil works are about to start, steel is rolled, and demand is being built in parallel with supply. That matters far more than sentiment on a chat board.

Once the rig contract is awarded and a circa Summer 2026 drilling window is confirmed, another huge chunk of risk disappears overnight. At that point, this isn’t a punt, it’s a funded, scheduled appraisal well into a proven gas field with infrastructure already under construction. On that alone, I don’t see how this stays at 1.5p to 2p pence. A move into the 3p to 4p range feels entirely reasonable just on de-risking and visibility.

As we move through spring and into early summer, with spud approaching, and operations ramping, the dynamic usually changes again. People stop trading and start positioning. Liquidity tightens, sellers dry up, and the price tends to lift simply because fewer people want to be out. In that window, I’d expect something more like 5–6p if momentum builds.

The real inflection, though, and what I’m here for, is CH-1 itself. If initial drilling updates confirm stacked pay, multiple reservoirs including Unit 3, strong pressures and oil shows, which would be consistent with everything we already know about Ntorya, then this stops being talked about as a single well and starts being viewed as a hugely scalable development, with three wells about to be hooked up and producing in 2026. Markets tend to reprice that kind of confirmation very quickly. Double digits wouldn’t surprise me at all in that scenario, even before flow testing is completed.

Step back and look at it coldly: a multi-TCF onshore gas project, pipelines being built, power demand ramping, LNG options emerging, and a clear path to monetisation. That doesn’t live at today’s valuation for long. Post-success, something in the 10p to 15p range feels like a sensible base view to me, with more upside if Phase 1 scale-up and additional infrastructure come into focus.

Just my opinion, but this feels far more about execution now than hope! Roll on January :-)