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There just over 5,000 ISA millionaires in the UK..

Yes, Jamtart, an oil find would certainly put the cat amongst the pigeons and completely move the goalposts on any valuation models. And let's not forget oil shows were present during the drilling of NT2, plus we are targeting yet untested stacked reservoirs during CH1. Of course, oil is more likely in the lower Jurassic - which we will not be testing during CH1 - but you never know ;-)

GL and Edgar,

What we need to remember is that this news was widely expected. We knew the pipes had already been fabricated, so was just a matter of time before news dropped that they had been shipped to Tanzania. Plus we’ve already moved up 50% since December and the placing set back for the share price.

We are now consolidating at an important psychological resistance point at 2p. The next bit of news flow - NT2 contract, confirmation of civil works starting and importantly rig contract and spud window - should see us continue this very positive upward trajectory!

Hi Jam,

I don’t believe a takeover now would make sense for any side.

At c.£90m market cap, Aminex is still being priced as a risky small-cap developer, not as a strategic gas asset with a pipeline, domestic market and LNG optionality.

Any credible bidder would have to pay:

1. for the gas in the ground

2. for the pipeline route to market

3. for LNG feedstock optionality

4. for CH-1 upside

5, and for full carry to first gas

That implies a HUGE premium to today’s price, which is exactly why a bid now is unlikely IMO; the valuation gap is too wide.

ARA/Eclipse already control c.27% and are funding development. They don’t need to buy Aminex - yet.

They need to prove scale first.

Takeovers happen when risk collapses, value becomes measurable, strategic control matters. Not when the asset is still being defined.

So yes, a Cove-style outcome is fully possible if CH-1 defines scale. But it would be driven by proven value, not today’s market cap.

Reuters reports Tanzania expects to sign its $42bn LNG export agreement by June.

This LNG export agreement matters, not because Ntorya feeds LNG tomorrow, but because it confirms the direction of travel:

Tanzania has chosen gas as its national growth engine. That changes the strategic backdrop for Ntorya.

The LNG project signals:

• Long-term state commitment to gas

• Political alignment behind gas infrastructure

• Capital returning to the sector

• A domestic to export pathway

Ntorya sits inside that system:

• Onshore

• Discovered

• Low capex

• Dedicated pipeline under construction

• Immediate domestic market access

• LNG feedstock optionality

Cove was valued mainly on export LNG potential, still years away.

Ntorya has:

• Near-term domestic monetisation

• Faster execution

• Lower development risk

• LNG upside

Which suggests the Cove benchmark is not aggressive, it is conservative when applied to Ntorya.

CH-1 is not about discovering gas. It is about defining scale inside a system now built for monetisation.

Fair to be cautious with the word shortly, especially considering past performance, but context matters.

This isn’t being said in isolation; it follows:

• Pipe already delivered into Mtwara

• Groundworks scheduled to commence and clearance works in progress

• Rig tenders already received (per last RNS)

• 2026 work programme and budget approved

As I said, previously the company used language like ‘in the coming weeks and months’ when things were still in planning. Now we have physical execution underway.

So ‘shortly’ here isn’t hype, it reflects that multiple operational steps are now sequenced and contract-driven, not conceptual. I’m confident we will see that update very soon :-)

According to the company an operations update is very close:

“We will provide a further operational update shortly."

That’s a clear change in language from the previous:

“…further updates in the coming weeks and months.”

So many value inflection pieces of news to expect soon:

- Contract for NT2 production works

- Rig contract and spud window

- Confirmation of civil works having commenced

Now that the pipeline has been fabricated and shipped to country and boots are on the ground signalling the start of physical works, the sequencing of works at Ntorya should be underway. Remember we have an approved $50m budget for the 2026 work programme. News should now start to come think and fast !

Huge credit to you Ufufuo for putting real work on the table.

What stands out isn’t just the conclusion, it’s the method:

• Tanzanian fiscal terms

• Operator guidance

• FDP inputs

• Transparent assumptions

• Full production horizon

• Explicit CH-1 upside case

This is exactly what’s been missing from broker notes.

And the key point is this: Ufufuo’s model independently lands in the same valuation territory as the Cove benchmark that I highlighted earlier.

Two different routes. Same destination.

Cove showed the market will pay c.£440m per TCF for a discovered, de-risked gas system with scale.

At Ntorya:

• Current mapped case c.0.86 TCF net to Aminex

• CH-1 success case lifts GIIP from 3.45 TCF to 7.95 TCF

That’s not marginal upside. That’s field-level repricing.

Which is why:

– Cove says scale gets valued

– Ufufuo’s model says cashflow gets valued

– CH-1 is what converts geology into both

And unlike many explorers: Ntorya already has a route to market. A funded drill. A funded pipeline. Government alignment. LNG feedstock relevance. Industrial pricing upside. Condensate kicker.

This is not a blue-sky exploration punt. It’s a scale re-rating event.

So when two completely different approaches,

historical comp (Cove) and forward cashflow (Ufufuo), converge on the same valuation zone…

That’s not coincidence. That’s triangulation. One drill. One result. One repricing.

Now that physical operations have commenced and the train has finally left the station, it is a good time to revisit valuation calculations so that shareholders can properly assess the value of Aminex and the implications of the upcoming CH1 drill.

The Cove comparable analysis is an excellent starting point.

In 2012, Cove Energy was acquired for £1.2 billion.

Cove held just 8.5% of Mozambique’s Rovuma gas basin, equating by to approximately

2.7 TCF net.

That landmark transaction valued East African gas at roughly: £440 million per TCF.

An excellent real world benchmark.

Now look at Aminex.

At Ntorya, the currently mapped fairway contains 3.45 TCF GIIP (gross).

Aminex holds 25%, equating to approximately:

0.86 TCF net on the present base case.

Applying the Cove benchmark:

0.86 TCF × £440m per TCF

= c.£380 million valuation

With approximately 4.47 billion shares in issue, that equates to roughly:

Around 8–9p per share on the base case alone.

Today, Aminex trades around 2p, implying a market capitalisation of approximately £89 million.

Importantly, this comparison should be viewed as a base valuation.

Ntorya gas benefits from a structurally stronger route to market:

• Dedicated pipeline to Madimba under construction

• Immediate access to Tanzania’s domestic gas market

• Strategic positioning as future LNG feedstock

• Onshore development with lower capex and faster monetisation

Cove was valued primarily on export LNG potential, still many years away.

Ntorya gas has both domestic demand and LNG optionality.

That suggests the Cove benchmark is conservative when applied to Ntorya.

The current valuation also excludes:

• CH-1

• Stacked pay

• Phase 2 development

• Condensate

• LNG expansion potential

Now consider the CH-1 success case.

ARA Petroleum has stated that gas in place at Ntorya could be as high as 7.95 TCF across multiple stacked channel sands.

On that basis, Aminex’s share would rise to approximately:

2.0 TCF net.

Applying the same Cove benchmark:

2.0 TCF × £440m per TCF

= c.£880 million valuation

Which equates to roughly:

Around 19–20p per share in a CH-1 success case.

So the valuation range becomes clear:

1. Base Case (current mapped fairway): 8-9p

2. CH-1 Success Case (stacked pay proven): 19-20p

Cove was valued on potential. Aminex is now moving into execution:

• Pipeline construction underway

• Domestic gas market

• LNG FEED progressing

• CH-1 fully funded

• Fully carried

CH-1 is not about discovering gas.

It is about defining scale.

And in East Africa, scale has already been priced before.

“Price is what you pay. Value is what you get.”

— Warren Buffett

EarEye,

Quite a few fundamental misunderstandings here.

A drilling rig is a single contracted unit with a defined mobilisation plan. It is not described as “multiple vessels each carrying more than 1,000 tonnes of specialised equipment”. That wording fits field development and surface facilities, not a rig mobilisation.

More importantly, drilling is not prevented by the rainy season. What must be done in the dry season is the civil work:

– well pad construction

– access roads

– foundations

– site preparation

Once the pad and roads are built, drilling can proceed in wet conditions. That is standard practice globally.

So the critical path is not “when equipment ships”, but whether civil works start now, in the current dry window, which is exactly what has been scheduled. Civil works should have already started this month, including access roads and CH1 pad prep!

Confusing bulk project cargo with a drilling rig, and then assuming rain prevents drilling, creates a delay narrative from two incorrect premises.

Rig timing will be defined by the rig contract and mobilisation plan. We will be advised of this via official RNS channels once finalised.

Civil works timing defines whether drilling can proceed through the year. Civils are starting this month, and should complete this quarter. Nothing to stop the drill taking place at any time thereafter.

“We will provide a further operational update shortly”

Seems like a big ops update is incoming! A nice Monday morning RNS would be perfect. So much news coming down the line. We should start getting very regular updates now the ball is properly rolling :-)

Boots on the ground, pipeline delivered, a huge press push, operations running “ahead of shedule” and the promise of a “further operation update shortly” ! What a week. Next up rig contract and a spud window ! 2026 = the year of Aminex !!

This is the moment the market has waited years for.

Not plans. Not tenders. Not promises.

PIPE IN COUNTRY. ROUTE BEING CLEARED. PHYSICAL WORKS UNDERWAY.

Aminex have now posted photo confirmation of clearance works along the pipeline route. That takes this from “announced” to executing.

You do not clear a pipeline route unless you are building a pipeline. Full stop.

What this means in plain terms:

• TPDC are building, not talking

• Chinese contractors are mobilised

• February groundworks are now locked

• Full alignment across TPDC, ARA, PURA and government is already in place

• Upstream activity cannot pause

This is the switch from project risk to execution risk; and that is a completely different valuation.

Perspective now matters:

We were 2.2p on NT-2 spud with:

• no pipeline

• revenue years away

• far higher uncertainty

That run took us to 7.9p.

Today we have:

• pipeline delivered ahead of schedule

• route clearance visibly underway

• monetisation locked

• CH-1 ahead — at a FAR FAR larger scale than NT-2

Anyone still valuing this like NT-2 is missing what’s happening. From here, realistic re-pricing looks like this IMO:

• Near term (pipeline build / CH-1 prep): 3–4p

• CH-1 spud window: 4–6p

• CH-1 success: 10p++++ firmly in play

And this time, revenue is no longer “years away”. This is not sentiment. This is infrastructure execution.

The gun has been fired. The market just hasn’t looked up yet. Steady hands. This is getting started. :-)

Fantastic news! It’s all systems go and regular updates clearly scheduled. The train has finally left the station, what a year it’s going to be for shareholders !!! :-)

A HUGE moment Watchouse! Civil works from ARA will be visible soon too - how great will that be to see the CH1 pad being built! :-)

Watchouse! What an awesome discovery! Thank you!

This is the moment where speculation and doubt ends and execution begins. Satellite imagery now shows physical clearing along the exact, approved Ntorya–Madimba pipeline route. December imagery showed nothing. January imagery shows a newly cleared corridor precisely where the pipeline is designed to turn north of Mbawala.

That is not coincidence. That is not theory. That is ground works. And ground works only happen when everything upstream is already locked in.

This matters because pipeline construction is not a standalone activity. It is the final output of coordinated approvals and mobilisation:

• Government sign-off

• EPC engagement

• Land access and compensation

• Surveying and ROW clearance

• Contractor mobilisation

You do not clear a live pipeline corridor unless the project is funded, permitted, and moving. Which means this isn’t just “a pipeline starting”. It is the starting gun for the entire Ntorya execution phase.

Once pipeline works commence:

• ARA’s upstream programme must move in parallel

• Well pad prep, civils and drilling logistics follow

• CH-1 timing compresses

• Monetisation risk collapses

And let’s be clear, this is happening with TPDC, PURA and ARA all aligned. That coordination does not happen unless Tanzania wants this gas online, and wants it fast.

The market has spent years asking: “Will Ntorya ever be built?” That question is now obsolete.

The only remaining question is: How big does Ntorya become once CH-1 feeds into an already-moving system?

This is how re-ratings begin. Not with words. With machines, corridors, and cleared land.

The gun has been fired. Execution is underway.

Those waiting for certainty will arrive late. Those watching the ground move already know what comes next.

Operational progress news could drop any day now ! A positive update on a confirmed rig contract and a favourable spud window will leave 2p in the rear view mirror !!

Great find Ufufuo !

Kenya explicitly planning bulk natural gas import infrastructure from Tanzania, alongside new pipelines and power generation, reinforces just how strategic Tanzanian gas has become across East Africa. :-)

This is why the recent international press referencing Ntorya in an LNG context is so so significant. For the first time, Ntorya isn’t just framed as a domestic supply project, but as part of a scalable regional energy solution… pipeline, power and LNG optionality.

CH-1 is the key that unlocks that next phase. Prove up the volumes, and Ntorya moves from “development project” to anchor feedstock for multiple demand routes; domestic, industrial, LNG and now clearly cross-border.

The market hasn’t connected the dots yet, but when they wake up it will be explosive !

Yes a hugely significant find from James on Telegram!!

And what’s genuinely significant here is the nature of the coverage itself.

This is the first time Ntorya is being referenced in a mainstream LNG industry publication in the context of Tanzania’s onshore LNG pathway, not just domestic gas. That matters.

The article makes two important points very clear:

1. Ntorya is already viewed as strategic feedstock within Tanzania’s gas roadmap

2. Scalability is the prize – onshore LNG grows only if gas volumes justify it

That’s where CH-1 becomes pivotal. Initial production is never the end game. It’s the proof point. If CH-1 confirms the stacked-pay potential and larger GIIP, Ntorya moves from “domestic supply” to national energy anchor.

What’s changed here is visibility. Aminex is now being talked about outside investor forums, by people who think in terms of MTPA, demand curves, and long-term infrastructure.

That’s how re-rating stories actually start. Execution first. Scale follows.

Moving in the right direction! We should get a regular stream of news updates and value inflection points over the coming months, which IMO should see a steady rise in the share price up to spud date… personally, I’m expecting 4p to 5p by the time we spud !