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19p to 23p per share…

That’s where the numbers point if CH-1 delivers what the Board now expects. And these aren’t fantasy multiples or broker spin; it’s Aminex’s own $40m net profit guidance at 140 MMscf/d, simply scaled to the production capacity and pricing potential now in sight.

Here’s the logic:

• 140 MMscf/d plateau = $40m net to Aminex (company guidance)

• 560+ MMscf/d plateau (CH-1 success + 7.95 Tcf upside + LNG demand) = $160m net

• Add ~15% condensate uplift = $184m

• Add ~20% LNG/industrial pricing uplift = ~$220m net

On a conservative 5–6× earnings multiple, that’s a market cap of £814m–£976.8m, or ~19–23p per share (4.2bn shares, $/£≈0.74).

Why 560+ MMscf/d is realistic:

CH-1 isn’t just another producer. At the ~50 MMscf/d flow rate the Board now expects — and with stacked pay proven — the reserves case leaps from today’s booked 3.45 Tcf to up to 7.95 Tcf. That’s the volume required to sustain 560+ MMscf/d, and it’s now backed by government-endorsed demand pull from the Mtwara LNG project, which names Ntorya as a primary feed source.

Demand? Already spoken for.

EWURA’s latest permits show ~85 CNG stations under build or licensed (~170 MMscf/d). Then add:

• Aspin Energy / Escom Malawi Power Plant – ~30 MMscf/d

• Rocky Mountain GTL – ~25–30 MMscf/d

• ESSA Fertilizer Plant – ~70 MMscf/d

• Mtwara LNG Project – 400 MMscf/d ramping to 1,200 MMscf/d

That’s 700+ MMscf/d of identifiable, financed demand before you even get into smaller offtakes or regional LNG. The challenge isn’t selling the gas; it’s producing enough.

Where we are now:

At 2p, the market is still pricing Ntorya like a capped 140 MMscf/d domestic play. But the pipeline is building, CH-1 will spud before it’s complete, and the scale of this asset is now bigger than at any point in the company’s history.

When CH-1 hits, the numbers alone will force the re-rate.

And that’s when the 19–23p maths stops being theory and starts being the share price we grow towards as the field develops !

Thanks Crusty and same for you. We all have different strategies for trading and investing and I respect your opinion. We can just agree to disagree on this one. The picture couldn’t be more different now compared to after last years AGM IMO, hence why we are still at roughly same SP as the day of the AGM despite your selling ;-)

IMO no operational activity until Q2 2026 is pessimistic to the extreme. Is contracting a rig not operational activity? That’s coming in short order and being expedited by PURA. The govt are “pushing like crazy”. Then the site needs to be prepared with civil works, well pad etc, this all needs to happen well in advance of spud. Coordinated / concurrent works will also no doubt be required around the Ntorya site in order to ready the site (and the three wells) for connection to the pipeline.

Also ARA issued 34 tenders months ago for a wide range of field development works. They didn’t do this to pee off the contractors and waste their time sifting through the admin for a year. This is a complex project and not just a case of test NT2 and drill CH1 and that’s all there is to do. Operations are now ramping up and I’m very confident that there will be plenty of operational activity before Q2 2026. You might hope there isn’t so you can rebuy at a lower price, but that’s a different matter.

Let’s wait for the PURA approval, the rig and civil works tenders going out, the rig contract, and physical proof of pipeline build and take it from there. I feel that, with all that in place, Watchouse’s buy today will be in a very healthy profit ;-)

Well IMO, this time is different.

Last year after the AGM, the project slipped back into silence; no rig, no pipeline contractor, and no real visibility. The market drifted because there was nothing to anchor expectations.

But this time is different. And here’s why:

The pipeline build is real. CPP is mobilising and under EPC contract to deliver. The fuse is lit.

The rig tender is very soon to be live, and PURA is now directly involved. That changes the game; it adds oversight, urgency, and a public timeline. A contract award now isn’t just “possible”, it’s inevitable.

The CH-1 drill is coming into sight. Whether it’s Feb, March, April, May or June, once the rig is secured and timelines are known, the market will start pricing in the discovery potential. Buying won’t wait for spud, it’ll front-run it. The potential result at CH1 is huge and investors will want to get fully positioned once a drill date is established.

And unlike last year, there’s no news blackout coming. We’ve got a pipeline to watch, a rig to award, NT-2 to tie in, and government pressure to deliver.

Yes, there may be small pullbacks along the way, that’s normal and healthy. But we’re in the early stages of a major re-rate. And this time, the story is being built in real-time, in front of everyone.

So I say let the traders play their games. The smart money knows: Execution phase means value discovery. And we’ve only just begun.

Hi Crusty

How would a spud mid 2026 and completion of the CH1 drill before completion of the pipeline work? The pipeline should be completed by mid 2026 so CH1 spud needs to be early 2026 IMO…

What Orca is dealing with is exactly why Aminex’s Ntorya position is so valuable.

Songo Songo was a legacy trap — broken PSA, “protected gas,” multiple government buyers, endless disputes.

Ntorya isn’t.

No protected gas.

No legacy contracts.

No sunk infrastructure.

Full carry.

Clean project.

Single pipeline, single route, single purpose: monetise gas.

And now the Tanzanian government is doing everything to avoid another Orca situation — hence the urgency, the PURA involvement, the pipeline fast-track, and the push to get CH-1 drilled ASAP.

Ntorya is the reset.

This isn’t the beginning of a problem — it’s the reason our project is the solution.

Ignore the fear.

Follow the facts.

CH-1 is coming.

“Expecting to do so NO LATER than mid August”.. to me that reads as any day from now until end of next week for news. And we need to remember that it was PURA pushing to expedite the rig tendering process, and the government are “pushing like crazy” to drill CH1 per the BOD’s comments at the AGM…

We should also hear any day now that PURA have approved the rig tender strategy, and then rig and drill service tenders will be issued immediately. That should see us push past the 2p barrier!

Worth remembering who we’re actually dealing with here.

This isn’t a case of ARA dragging their heels or Aminex waiting around. The Petroleum Upstream Regulatory Authority (PURA), Tanzania’s own upstream regulator, has now stepped in directly to oversee and expedite the rig tendering process.

That’s a very different signal to the market. When the regulator itself is pushing, it’s not about “if” or “when”; it’s about how quickly they can get CH-1 drilled.

And it fits perfectly with what we’ve already seen. Last year, Charles Sangweni, Director General of PURA, went public urging ARA and Aminex to keep pushing Ntorya forward and maintain momentum. Now we see that same intent reflected in action: PURA moving to accelerate the rig contract.

What does that mean for us?

The government isn’t passively watching, it’s actively forcing progress. CH-1 isn’t drifting, it’s being treated as a national priority.

Tender approval is expected any day now. Once that drops, the countdown to spud becomes very real.

Ignore the noise and the relentless spam on the board. The facts are clear: when the regulator takes the wheel, timings shorten.

It’s always telling when progress gets questioned based on what hasn’t been seen, rather than what’s already been confirmed.

Let’s be clear: This isn’t a garden shed project; it’s a government-backed gas pipeline being delivered under an EPC contract by one of the most experienced infrastructure contractors operating in East Africa.

The contractor reports directly to TPDC, and the project is now under private execution. This isn’t a photo opportunity. It’s a phased, professional build.

TPDC has already confirmed construction would begin in July and will complete by July 2026. That’s not speculation it’s official.

At this stage, the early activity is heavily weighted toward procurement and mobilisation. This includes: Finalising pipe supply orders and materials logistics; Organising staging areas and transport routes; Lining up sub-contractors, workforce, and access solutions; Upgrading roads for heavy equipment; Clearing access paths and setting up operational zones.

It’s the invisible phase, but arguably the most critical. You don’t break ground without knowing exactly what’s arriving, where it’s going, and how it’s being installed.

Anyone expecting diggers on day one is clearly completely green to how major projects actually operate. And the idea we’ll get live updates and a rolling commentary for every procurement task? Total misleading nonsense. We’ve entered the execution phase, and that means work, not headlines.

Trying to cast doubt because no one’s seen a man with a spade is just lazy. Worse, it shows a fundamental lack of experience whatsoever.

Meanwhile?

CH-1 is lining up!!

We know PURA has formally requested the rig tendering process, and ARA has already submitted the necessary documentation.

We’re now simply waiting on PURA to issue the formal approval, and that is expected any day.

Once that drops, tenders go live and CH-1 becomes real on paper and in the field.

This is execution mode. We don’t need noise. We need delivery. And it’s already begun.

The Wednesday Waffle today is worth reading for one reason only: it shows just how far removed from reality the deramp narrative is drifting.

A 40% discount rate? Seriously?

That’s not a valuation, that’s a complete fictional distortion. Nobody in any credible investment scenario applies a 40% discount to a fully carried, near-term, government-backed gas project with infrastructure under construction and offtake demand locked in.

NPV10 is standard. NPV12 is conservative. But when the asset is strategic, the operator is funding $100m+, the government is pushing hard, the upside is enormous, and production is expected in 12 months, trying to float “NPV40” is a complete joke, and everyone knows it. You don’t even need any industry experience.

This isn’t a fringe explorer in a failed state / war zone with no infrastructure. It’s a Tier 1 domestic energy project in Tanzania, now fully moving into execution.

If you need a 40% discount rate to try and talk it down, you’ve already lost the argument. :-)

Great post, Ufufuo, clear, reasoned, and much needed.

You’ve hit the nail on the head regarding the false equivalence being drawn between Aminex and Orca. The comparison simply doesn’t hold up under scrutiny. The PAET PSA structure is not only dated and unusually punitive, but also burdened by the “protected gas” clause that forces them to give away a significant share of production for free, a clause that Aminex’s structure does not include.

As you rightly say, Aminex benefits from:

• A modern, cleaner PSA with better fiscal terms

• No legacy debt or depletion charges

• A full development carry

• ~$115m of tax losses to shield future profit

• A simplified revenue model with gas sold at the wellhead

And crucially, TPDC and the government want this project to succeed. That alignment alone puts Aminex in a very different position to Orca.

Let’s not forget: Orca still made tens of millions in net profit even with all those headwinds. Now imagine what Aminex can do in a structure designed for profitability.

Thanks again for shining a light where others try to muddy the water!

PURA approval to rig tendering process due to land soon; then rig and drilling tenders to be issued. We are in a new era of rapid operational progress !

Hi Tanzania, really appreciate your long-standing presence here and totally understand the sentiment.

But I’d gently encourage you to re-read the updates shared by those who attended the AGM; the tone from the Board was extremely positive throughout.

They made it crystal clear that CH-1 will be drilled before the pipeline is completed. The Tanzanian government is, in their words, “pushing like crazy” to get that well drilled and gas flowing as soon as possible. PURA is now involved to accelerate the rig tender process, and multiple rig options are being reviewed.

In short, things are moving. Behind the scenes, the project is now entering its execution phase, and that’s exactly when the real value begins to build.

So, Shard Capital drops a 3.25p–3.7p range, and we’re meant to see that as bearish? Let’s get real, this is a conservative, discounted base-case valuation that already shows a double-bagger from today’s price. And that’s before factoring in the upside levers that Shard hasn’t even touched.

• CH-1 Flow Rates: The AGM confirmed CH-1 is expected to deliver ~50 MMscf/d per well (vs. the 20 MMscf/d used in older models). Higher flow rates = faster ramp = bigger returns.

• Condensate: ARA and Aminex estimate ~15% extra value from liquids. Shard doesn’t build this in.

• Pricing Assumptions: They’re modelling $3.9–$4.1/mscf. Industrial offtake pricing in East Africa - likely the majority of the offtake? Closer to $6–7/mscf. Every $1 increase moves the needle massively.

• CH-1 Resource Expansion: CH-1 is expected to flow ~50 MMscf/d and is the key to unlocking stacked pay zones that could raise Ntorya’s total GIIP from 3.45 to as high as 7.95 TCF. That’s a potential uplift of over 4.5 TCF; and it hinges on this single well.

• Discount Rate: They’re using a chunky 12%, extremely conservative for a fully carried asset with guaranteed offtake from TPDC.

The reality is this:

Shard’s conservative model, with low prices, high discount rates, and zero upside built in, still screams 3.7p.

Now imagine what happens when the market prices in CH-1’s stacked pay, condensate uplift, and industrial gas demand and pricing.

That’s not ramping. That’s reading.

Because reality, when fully modelled, takes this well beyond 6–7p.

This is where sentiment turns.

The market’s still digesting the AGM. The impatient sold. The distracted missed it. But those paying attention heard something different this year. They heard the shift from waiting… to executing.

Because here’s what Aminex made crystal clear:

– CH-1 will be drilled before pipeline completion.

– The government is “pushing like crazy.” for the drill and gas production.

– PURA is now involved to expedite rig tendering.

– ARA is no longer talking if, they’re talking how soon.

– The target is no longer 20 MMscf/d—it’s 50 MMscf/d+ from CH-1 and future production wells.

– Phase 1 drilling programme is already being planned for.

Tom laid out the Phase 2 vision clearly:

6 new wells. A second pipeline. Expanded processing. 280 MMscf/d.

Why? Because 140 won’t even touch the sides.

As he said:

“With such a large in-place volume, 140 MMscf/d will go nowhere near adequately draining the field. Increasing to 280 MMscf/d would actually bring the reserves into production within the life of the licence.”

Ntorya is now on a national energy trajectory.

The Board also confirmed:

– Condensate expected to add ~15% to overall value.

– Industrial pricing could materially improve economics.

– A new CPR is coming post-CH-1.

– NT-2 test will proceed before pipeline commissioning.

– TPDC will take 60 MMscf/d. The rest? Other buyers at higher prices.

– Cashflow from NT-2 targeted by September 2026.

– ~50% of loan facility drawn; ~12 months of runway secured.

– Kiliwani remains a strategic asset. Nyuni costs will be reduced.

– And ARA wants Aminex onboard long-term, for valuation alignment and international access.

This is not the same company as a year ago.

And CH-1 is not just another well, it’s the catalyst.

Here’s what’s coming, value inflection points now dead ahead:

1. Rig contract award and mobilisation RNS

2. Visible spud preparation at CH-1 site (pad, materials)

3. NT-2 well test results and deliverability confirmation

4. CH-1 spud announcement (Q1 2026 expected)

5. First signs of stacked pay or major gas column at CH-1

6. New CPR upgrade reflecting increased deliverability

7. Phase 2 announcements: 6 new wells, pipeline expansion

8. Early offtake agreements beyond TPDC allocation

9. Formal gas sales contract pricing disclosures

10. Cashflow commencement.

Every single one of these levers the valuation upward.

If you’re waiting for a signal…

This is it.

They BOD were confident of receiving payments by Sept 2026. They did not seem concerned and if additional finance is needed it would be 1) a small amount and 2) short term. Considering how supportive ARA have been, and with revenues due imminently, I could imagine them extending the loan facility..

TPDC initial offtake: 60 MMscf/d confirmed

ARA and TPDC have effectively agreed that 60 MMscf/d will be taken by TPDC initially. The rest will go to other industrial offtakers, ARA is considering every route: virtual pipeline, LNG, CNG, mining, manufacturing.

And demand is not a concern. In fact, the Board made clear that multiple discussions are already in motion.

⸻

NT-2 test still on

Despite the focus on CH-1, the NT-2 well test is still scheduled to take place before pipeline commissioning. This will help define deliverability and confirm gas composition. The expected CO2 content is around 3%, which is low and manageable.

⸻

TPDC back-in rights: still at 15%

There’s been speculation, but the facts are:

• TPDC has not yet exercised its back-in rights

• The 15% maximum is still intact

• Discussions are ongoing

Any move here would be procedural and expected under the PSA framework.

⸻

Kiliwani, Nyuni, and what comes next

Kiliwani is on hold but not dead. The Board still sees strong potential and plans to run seismic to better understand the structure. It will be revisited once Ntorya is producing and generating revenue.

Nyuni is more challenging. The Board called it “too risky” at present and is actively trying to reduce scale and attract a partner before proceeding. They acknowledged the risk–reward tradeoff and are moving cautiously.

⸻

PR reset and Shard upgrade incoming

Everyone knows PR’s been weak. The Board knows it too, and they own it. They explained that:

• Past silence was due to slow progress + limited updates + budget constraints

• Now that activity is ramping up, regular comms will return

• Journalist conversations are already underway

• A new Shard valuation is coming, expected to be significantly more bullish than the last

This is the start of a new communications phase, fuelled by real news—not just hope.

In closing…

This AGM didn’t just confirm CH-1 before pipeline completion.

It didn’t just confirm 50 MMscf/d potential from a single well.

It didn’t just outline Phase 2 scale-up.

It changed the tone of the entire project.

We’re no longer talking about if.

We’re talking about how fast, how big, and how long we stay invested!

If Part 1 was about timing, and Part 2 was about volume and value, Part 3 is about momentum. This is no longer a project waiting to begin. It’s now underway. And the rest of the AGM laid out exactly how Aminex fits into this next phase.

Phase 2: 280 MMscf/d or bust

Tom didn’t just run through the Phase 1 numbers. He laid down the roadmap for the next phase of development, and it’s a big one:

• 6 additional wells

• An additional pipeline to Madimba

• Expansion of the gas processing facility

Why? Because 140 MMscf/d won’t cut it.

“With such a large in-place volume, 140 MMscf/d will go nowhere near adequately draining the field. Increasing to 280 MMscf/d would actually bring the reserves into production within the life of the licence.”

That’s not blue-sky dreaming. That’s operator-led strategy, shared openly with shareholders. We’re no longer talking about a junior field. Ntorya is now being built out like a national energy pillar.

⸻

Funding runway and cashflow

Aminex has drawn down ~50% of its loan facility, with ~$1.5m still available. With a burn rate of ~$1.5m/year, they’re funded for the next 12 months.

More importantly, cashflow is expected from around September 2026, once the pipeline is commissioned and NT-2 is delivering gas. Payments will be a mix of cash and Tanzanian shillings, and the Board seemed confident that this will provide a sustainable financial base.

The second half of the AGM got deeper into economics, project scale, and Aminex’s role moving forward; and the value case only got stronger.

First up: production.

When asked about the 20 MMscf/d per well assumption, the Board made it clear:

“CH-1 is expected to flow at ~50 MMscf/d.”

Not 20. Not even 30. Fifty.

Why? Because CH-1 isn’t just twinning NT-2.

It’s targeting a thicker section of the same reservoir, with additional stacked pays, including Unit 3. This is a much higher-impact well than NT-2 ever was.

Combine that with the fact that NT-2 flowed at 17 MMscf/d despite mud ingress and pressure constraints, and we now have a clear line of sight to significantly higher rates.

A new CPR is likely after CH-1, or at the latest after Phase 1 drilling. That means updated reserves, production profiles, and field value, right as the market is already re-rating for gas delivery.

⸻

Condensate kicker? +15%.

The Board confirmed that condensate volumes could add ~15% to project value. That’s clean margin on top of the gas revenue, potentially hundreds of millions in additional value over the field life.

⸻

Gas pricing? There’s upside there too.

The Board couldn’t disclose final figures (confidentiality clauses), but two key details emerged:

1. There’s an inflation clause baked into the gas sales agreement.

2. A large portion of gas can go to industrial offtakers, at much higher prices than standard utility tariffs.

In other words: the final revenue line could surprise to the upside, especially as Tanzania’s industrial and mining sectors ramp up gas demand.

⸻

ARA wants Aminex on board—why?

When asked why Aminex hasn’t been bought out or diluted, the Board explained that:

• ARA is happy with their 75% stake—they don’t want 100%.

• They value Aminex’s public listing, which brings transparency, valuation clarity, and a foothold in the international investment market.

• If ARA wanted rid of Aminex, they could’ve done it long ago—but they didn’t.

That tells you everything.

For me, this year’s Aminex AGM marked a fundamental shift, not just in tone, but in tempo.

For the first time in years, the Board spoke with conviction and clarity. No ambiguity. No hedging. Just a clear message: Ntorya is entering execution mode, and the drill is coming before the pipeline is complete!

Here’s the direct takeaway:

“CH-1 will be drilled before the pipeline is completed.”

No hesitation. No caveats. That is now the base case.

The Board made it clear that all parties: TPDC, ARA, Aminex, and the Tanzanian government, are fully aligned and urgently pushing to get CH-1 drilled. PURA’s recent involvement is part of this acceleration, brought in specifically to expedite the rig tendering process.

So what’s the holdup?

There isn’t one, not really. The BOD confirmed that formal rig tendering is imminent, and while they mentioned a potential rig share with M&P, they were at pains to point out that other rigs are actively being considered.

And here’s the kicker:

Rig-sharing with M&P, who are drilling three wells from Nov/December onwards, would likely take us into mid-2026. That would make it impossible to drill CH-1 before pipeline completion mid next year. So realistically, the rig share is either a red herring to maintain negotiation strength, or it gets scrapped soon.

Bottom line:

TPDC is “pushing like crazy.” The pipeline has a clear deadline. CH-1 is now on the clock.

Phase shift confirmed.

Execution starts now.