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KillerWhale, you seem desperate to portray uncertainty where clarity is fast emerging. The irony? Everything you’re pretending not to know is already public domain — or plainly obvious to anyone who’s followed this project beyond surface-level trolling.

We know the EPC contract is signed. We know the project is funded. We know the Tanzanian national budget explicitly confirmed Ntorya is entering execution phase. We know over 30 tenders have already gone out — not loose speculation.

You question the rig — again, already addressed. Aminex confirmed multiple times that planning for CH-1 is well advanced and that development plans would follow this exact milestone — the pipeline EPC contract. That moment has now arrived. A huge milestone. It’s not a question of “if”, it’s “when”, and that’s likely to be clarified in days — not years.

You ask why the share price is low. Simple: the market hasn’t fully priced in the significance of the EPC yet — and with characters like you frantically distorting the facts, it’s no surprise. But price is what you pay, value is what you get — and right now, the value is vastly underappreciated.

Tanzanian gas is a national priority. Ntorya has gone from discovery to funded development. The carry is in place. The field is proven. The plan is approved. Execution has started.

You’re right about one thing — this story used to be about “jam tomorrow.” But not anymore.

Now it’s just a countdown...

Killerwhale,

If you’ve truly been here for 16 years and still think this is “just another jam tomorrow,” then you’ve either not been paying attention… or you’ve chosen not to.

This isn’t 2018 anymore. It’s not even 2022. The pipeline isn’t some far-off dream — the EPC has been awarded. The tender process is complete. The $41 million JV budget has been approved. The gas sale agreement is in place. The extensive 3D seismic has been completed. The CH-1 drill is funded and scheduled. And for the first time, execution has begun — not words, not promises, execution. 34 tenders out for full field development action!

The market doesn’t “know” everything in advance — that’s a myth clung to by those who can’t explain why they’re wrong. In truth, the market is only just beginning to wake up. For years, Aminex lacked certainty on monetisation, infrastructure, or political backing. That’s now changed — visibly, structurally, and contractually.

You scoff at income not arriving until 2026. But what you miss entirely is that the value precedes the revenue. The rerate doesn’t wait for cash flow — it begins the moment the path to production is locked in. And with the pipeline EPC awarded, the GSA secured, and the government allocating budget for Ntorya, that path is now visible and irreversible.

You ask about the rainy season and welders. The operators involved in this project aren’t idiots — they’ve built in contingencies. This is a national energy priority, not a backyard job. The idea that weather will derail a state-backed strategic gas build-out is, frankly, unserious.

But let’s be honest. You’re not here to have a fair debate. You’re here to cast shadows. That’s why you dodge every concrete development and try to rerun tired narratives from a decade ago. It won’t work anymore.

The fuse has been lit. And whether you see it or not — this time, the outcome will be very different.

Fair question Lea. At the time of the NT-2 spike in early 2017, there were approximately 3.6 billion shares in issue. Today there are 4.22 billion — that’s only around a 17% increase over more than seven years, which is minimal in the context of junior oil and gas.

More importantly, what we’ve gained in that time far outweighs the modest dilution. Back in 2017, Aminex had no development licence, no gas sales agreement, no infrastructure route, and no clear plan to monetise the asset. Today, we have all of that in place — and we’re fully carried all the way through to production under a funded joint venture with a world class operator.

Yes, our percentage ownership of the licence has dropped, but the value of what we own has increased dramatically. Since then, the field has been mapped in far greater detail using 3D seismic, and the scale and commercial potential of Ntorya has grown significantly. That increased size, combined with our free carry, more than offsets the smaller stake and modest increase in share count.

We hit 7.9p in 2017 on NT-2 speculation alone, with none of the pieces in place. Today, we have the full structure built around it and a much much better understanding as to the scale of the world class field. The re-rate won’t be based on hope this time — it’ll be based on execution !

Northern — with respect, that sort of projection doesn’t reflect where we actually are.

We hit 2p last year on the development licence alone — before the FDP was updated, before the EPC was awarded, before the 2025 budget was rolling, and before the drill was confirmed in a live 12-month programme.

Go further back — we hit 7.9p in 2017 on NT-2 alone, without a licence, without a gas sales agreement, and without a path to market.

Now? Every one of those pieces is in place. The pipeline contract is signed. The infrastructure build has started. TPDC, CPP and CPTDC have gone public. The CH-1 drill is scheduled. This isn’t theory — it’s execution.

So no — this isn’t a “chance of 2p by Christmas” situation. That level is already behind us. If the market even attempted to price it that low six months from now, it would mean the entire project had failed — and it quite clearly hasn’t.

This is the most advanced, most strategic, and most de-risked point Aminex has ever been at. The re rate has just started.

2p isn’t the upside. It’s soon to be history.

Well done all shareholders. Today is the day the waiting ends.

After years of vision, setbacks, silence, and speculation — the Ntorya to Madimba EPC contract is signed.

Awarded. Confirmed. Declared.

To China Petroleum Pipeline and CPTDC — the very names we’ve tracked, watched, suspected.

No more doubt. No more maybe. This is real.

And this changes everything.

Because this contract isn’t just paperwork. It’s not fluff.

It’s the trigger.

The moment we go from theory to steel, from talk to trench, from holding to harvesting.

For 18 months, the foundations have been laid:

Gas Sales Agreement.

25-Year Development Licence.

Updated FDP.

$41 million budget approved.

And now, the EPC.

The pipeline will be built.

The gas will flow.

The value will surface.

And for those of us who saw it through — through the noise, the games, the doubt — this is our moment.

You cannot unwind this.

You cannot explain it away.

You cannot bury a signed pipeline contract backed by TPDC, ARA, and China’s state engineering machine.

Today, Ntorya becomes inevitable.

Let the latecomers rush.

Let the manipulators scatter.

Let the board burn itself down in disbelief.

We are already in position.

And now it’s their turn to watch.

—

“First they ignore you.

Then they laugh at you.

Then they fight you.

Then… you spud.”

Nice one Henning !

This just confirms everything we’ve been saying. The demand side is now public and undeniable — they’re pushing gas into households, factories, even rural and cross-border setups. And it’s all happening fast, with modular LNG rolling out at scale.

But here’s what matters — this announcement is all downstream. It’s the distribution and delivery. The real question is: where’s the supply going to come from?

Songo Songo and Mnazi Bay are already at capacity. They can’t meet this new wave alone. That’s where Ntorya becomes absolutely central. It’s the only field with proven volumes, an approved FDP, and a fully-funded development budget that hasn’t yet been brought online.

So if you’re wondering why the EPC is so important — this is it. They’re laying out the distribution map because the gas is coming. And the only real question left is when that first domino falls.

They’re not building all this for fun. The pipeline, the tenders, the flow meters, and now this LNG deal — it’s the build-up before the trigger.

And when it fires, it’s going to move quick !!

Quite a few deleted posts Crusty, but it’s hard for someone to keep the mask on whilst getting increasingly desperate and having to use so many alt accounts to keep their charade going…

Somebody seems a bit obsessed with spelling accuracy today ;-)

Another Wednesday, another weak attempt to rewrite reality.

Let’s be crystal clear: the 23.2 billion TZS allocated in the Tanzanian budget is not the full pipeline cost, and anyone claiming it only covers “25%” is pulling numbers from thin air. TPDC has never published the full figure — because they don’t need to.

Like every state-backed infrastructure rollout in the region, funding is released in stages, tied to construction progress. £6.5m is a mobilisation tranche — standard practice.

The real headline?

TPDC has formally committed funds and moved the project into execution. That’s the signal we’ve been waiting for.

Those pretending otherwise are either blind, or hoping you are.

Full rebuttal to the rest of the nonsense to follow...

Winalot — fair view. But in my opinion, the market won’t wait for 140 MMscf/d production to revalue this.

The turning point is when Ntorya moves from potential to execution. That moment comes the second the EPC contract lands and physical build begins. From there, it’s real. Aminex becomes a carried, near-term producer on a nationally strategic gas project.

The 280 MMscf/d scale-up is confirmed in the FDP. The condensate will be flowing and growing. And CH-1, once drilled, opens the door to an entirely new CPR — one that reflects the true scale of what ARA and the Tanzanian government are building.

13p. It doesn’t take a heroic set of assumptions to get there. Just apply a rational valuation to a fully carried stake in a proven asset with export infrastructure in motion.

That’s not ramping — it’s reality the market hasn’t priced yet.

The question isn’t whether this will re-rate.

It’s how many will be positioned when it does.

Typo Correction — I was understating it.

$800 million valuation = £583.12 million

÷ 4.22 billion shares = 13.82p per share

So the upside’s even stronger than I suggested, and frankly is enormous!

The carry is real. The gas is proven. The condensate is scaling. And the market is still asleep.

This isn’t just potential — it’s deeply undervalued reality.

60 → 140 → 280 MMscf/d.

That’s the production roadmap laid out in the Field Development Plan. It’s not speculation—it’s now embedded in Tanzania’s national energy strategy and the working interest partners’ investment plans.

But here’s what is important to note:

• The Madimba pipeline has capacity for up to 140 MMscf/d.

• The FDP forecasts Ntorya reaching 280 MMscf/d.m with a huge drilling campaign.

• So where does the extra gas go?

And more importantly—what does it earn us?

Where the Additional Gas Goes

1. New Domestic Offtake Points

Tanzania is scaling inland gas-fired power generation. Projects like Somanga Fungu, along with regional and municipal supply plans, will require direct feed outside the Madimba system.

2. Industrial Usage – Fertiliser, CNG, Petrochemicals

Policy is shifting toward domestic value-add. CNG for transport, industrial feedstock, and decentralised power networks are already underway.

3. Future Regional Interconnection

The proposed Tanzania-Zambia Gas Pipeline (TZGP) remains under government MoU. Ntorya’s scale matches long-term export ambitions—especially as Mozambique delays grow.

This is not overbuild. It is phased monetisation at scale.

Gas Revenue at 280 MMscf/d

• 280 × 365 = 102.2 billion scf per year

• At $4.50/mcf = $459.9 million gross field revenue

• Aminex 25% share = approx. $115 million/year

Condensate – The Hidden Layer

NT-2 flowed ~400 bbl/d of condensate alongside 17 MMscf/d of gas. That’s ~23.5 barrels per MMscf.

At 280 MMscf/d:

• 280 × 23.5 = 6,580 bbl/d

• Annualised: ~2.4 million barrels

• At $80/bbl = $192 million gross

• Aminex 25% share = approx. $48 million/year

Total Cashflow to Aminex (Post Cost Recovery)

• Gas: $115 million

• Condensate: $48 million

• Total: ~ $160+ million per year

And remember—Aminex is currently fully carried. No capex. No funding risk. No dilution.

Valuation View

• $160m annual income stream

• Apply modest 5× multiple = $800m

• With 5.43B shares = approx. 11.6p/share valuation

This is not a fantasy model. It’s the FDP-supported, government-backed full-field case, with upside still untapped from CH-1, deeper zones, and future export linkages.

“The coward regards himself as cautious.

The brave man waits, but does not retreat.”

- Marcus Aurelius

Crusty, looks like a delayed worked buy order which popped up after ours which explains the big move up on not much apparent volume at that time.. looks set up nicely for next week and hopefully an EPC contract announcement to send this over 2p !

Looks like you’ve ushered in a very positive day gaslady ! :-)

I do believe we will see the EPC formal announcement very soon now that this has formally passed through Parliament !

Have a great weekend all.

Great post Gas Lady :-) — and totally agree, the PURA article is a big signal.

Just to add for context — this week’s official passing of the 2025/26 National Budget is absolutely key.

373 MPs — 98.7% of Parliament — voted in favour, giving the green light to the government’s 56.49 trillion TZS spending plan. It’s now a matter of public record, published in the national press (Daily News, June 26).

And crucially, it covers the financial year beginning next week — meaning implementation is expected to follow immediately, hopefully no more waiting !

This matters because it removes any remaining procedural excuse for delays. The budget is passed. The funds are approved and allocated. Infrastructure projects — including the Ntorya pipeline — now have both fiscal authority and political backing to proceed.

PURA is confirming drill prep.

TPDC is ready to act.

This was likely the final hurdle.

Now we wait for execution!

I’m not sure if you can read Prosciutto, but see copy extract from the RNS below:

“Following production from the Ntorya-1 well (NT-1), Ntorya-2 well (NT-2) and the planned Chikumbi-1 well (CH-1), the FDP anticipates a phased development increasing the field production rate within around a five-year period from 60 mmscf/d to 140 mmscf/d to 280 mmscf/d, subject to the necessary export routes and offtake markets being built and sourced for the additional production. This will be achieved through a drilling programme of an additional 13 wells in the coming decade.”

Ramping up to 280 mmscf/d will clearly require additional export routes and off-take markets, but in one of the fast growing economies and populations in the world, I’m sure there are many opportunities that ARA are looking at !

In 2012, Aminex drilled Ntorya-1.

It flowed 20 MMscf/d.

Five years later, Ntorya-2 flowed 17 MMscf/d.

Both were suspended — not due to lack of gas, but lack of infrastructure.

By 2018, a CPR estimated:

763 BCF recoverable gas (2C)

1.87 TCF gas-in-place (Pmean)

Big. But that was before the seismic.

Post-3D: The Field Grew.

ARA’s 2024 update — based on new 338 km² 3D seismic and inversion modelling — has nearly doubled the GIIP to 3.45 TCF, and mapped a high-confidence gas-bearing area of 75 km², with potential upside to 180 km².

They now model 80% recovery with minimal reservoir barriers, and CH-1 is designed to confirm not only the structure, but a third untested sand unit — meaning volumes could rise again post-drill.

And the FDP Says This Is Just the Start.

In its March 2024 RNS, Aminex confirmed the operator has submitted an updated Field Development Plan to TPDC based on the 3D seismic results.

The plan?

Phase Ntorya production from 60 → 140 → 280 MMscf/d

over the next 5–10 years, via a 13-well development campaign —

subject to offtake markets and infrastructure scaling with demand.

That’s not speculation. That’s the blueprint.

So What’s This Worth?

Industry benchmarks for onshore gas with infrastructure access typically value recoverable gas at around:

$1 to $2.50 per MCF in the ground (NPV10, pre-tax)

That means:

• 1 TCF = $1 billion to $2.5 billion gross value range

• Aminex’s 25% stake = $250 million to $625 million per TCF

And based on ARA’s current model — we’re talking 2.7 TCF recoverable.

Do the maths!

Yet Aminex sits at just c. £47m market cap.

That’s not just undervaluation — it’s complete market dislocation.

Ntorya isn’t just a gas field.

It’s the beating heart of Tanzania’s onshore energy future —

And it’s about to wake up.

“It always seems impossible until it’s done.”

– Nelson Mandela

Let’s unpick the latest litany of fear from the sentiment suppression corner. Eight points, zero substance. Let’s walk through them—briefly.

1. “No control over destiny.”

False. Aminex is in a carried position on a gas field governed by a Tanzanian Development Licence—where TPDC is building infrastructure and ARA is funding development. That’s not loss of control. That’s leverage.

2. “Not enough capital for drilling.”

Wrong target. Aminex pays nothing. The operator (ARA) is funding 100% of work until income funds future costs. With 34 tenders issued and early works evident, this isn’t theory. It’s execution.

3. “17 MMscf/d from NT-2 is impoverished.”

Misinformed. NT-2 is expected to flow 20–30 MMscf/d+ after recompletion. More importantly, the plan scales far beyond one well—ramping from 60 to 140 to 280 MMscf/d via a 13-well programme. Aminex owns 25% of it, fully carried.

4. “No dividend.”

A red herring. This isn’t about dividends. It’s about rerating. Aminex is shifting from dormant junior to carried gas producer. That’s where the value is—and what the market will price in.

5. “Sell KNDL and be vulnerable.”

Irrelevant. KNDL was written down to zero. Aminex has no debt, no burn, and no pressure to sell. Ntorya is the crown jewel—and always has been.

6. “Quoting a 2018 CPR.”

Outdated. CH-1 was expected in 2018, but Aminex chose a farm-out over dilution—securing a full carry. That preserved value. CH-1 now sits atop expanded seismic and unlocks multi-phase development.

7. “Fill in the blanks.”

No need. This is a pre-revenue carried explorer nearing first gas. Once NT-2 flows, the market will fill in the numbers—and rerate accordingly.

8. “No pipeline. No CH-1. Orca isn’t profitable.”

False. The pipeline EPC is imminent, CH-1 is next, and the Orca comparison is flawed. Orca operates under a legacy PSA with full cost exposure. Aminex is carried, modern, and lean. Different model. Different upside.

One final note—

The usual Weds post suddenly gets 8 recs, after weeks of 1 or 2. Then we get some self congratulatory back slapping…

That’s not sentiment. That’s scripted reinforcement.

The kind you roll out when the facts aren’t on your side—but sentiment is slipping from your grip.

We’ve seen this playbook before.

And it only ever ramps up when something’s coming.

Let’s be real:

– Pipeline build is coming

– Tenders are issued

– CH-1 is being planned

– Aminex owns 25% of a potential 280 MMscf/d field

– No debt. No burn. Fully carried.

And the only thing proven beyond doubt…

is that we have a multi-identity sentiment manipulator grasping at every straw.

That alone is the strongest bullish indicator of all.

“Facts do not cease to exist because they are ignored.” — Aldous Huxley

Https://dailynews.co.tz/pura-pushes-for-sustainable-natural-gas-access-in-tanzania/

This week, PURA called for accelerated production and sustainable gas access in Tanzania.

They didn’t just mention Ntorya—they highlighted the Ntorya drills and PURA’s active role in supporting them. That’s not background noise. That’s a policy organ publicly signalling priority status.

And what does that mean for us?

• The framework is aligned.

• The pressure is mounting.

• The silence won’t last.

Because when PURA goes on record, it’s not just commentary. It’s the system warming up.

The signal has been sent.

Now we wait for the system to respond.

“Gradually, then suddenly.”

— Ernest Hemingway, The Sun Also Rises

Another week of silence. No RNS. No pipeline award. No drill date. But while sentiment stalls, Tanzania’s government just dropped something louder than any bulletin…

https://www.digest.tz/tanzania-budget-2025-26-is-out-what-are-its-pros-and-cons/

its 2025/26 national budget — and it carries a clear message:

Gas is not a side act. It’s central to the plan.

Clean Energy Now Has Teeth !!

This isn’t generic policy talk — it’s backed by fiscal action:

• VAT exemptions on CNG stations, gas cylinders, and carbon capture equipment

• Support for LNG developments

• National grid expansion budgeted for all regions

These aren’t signals of delay. They’re blueprints for delivery. And Ntorya is perfectly aligned — clean, onshore, monetisation-ready.

Infrastructure Spending Up 12%

The government is betting big on physical build-out:

• 56.49 trillion shillings budget (~$22bn)

• GDP growth projected to rise to 6% in 2025

• Deficit cut to 3.0% — aligning with East African Community targets

This isn’t just theory. It’s execution mode. And it needs more gas in the system — fast.

AEX’s Moment Is Lining Up

Ntorya is a very rare onshore discovery that is:

• Fully licensed

• Backed by a development plan

• Carried through to first gas for AEX

• Awaiting EPC contract for pipeline construction which could drop at any moment

The budget’s structure shows exactly what Aminex is holding; a 25% stake in a clean gas project ready to meet national needs.

This is no longer a speculative story. It’s a strategic fit.

Private Sector Must Deliver

The government is cutting domestic borrowing and calling for execution from partners.

• ARA have already issued 34 tenders

• The pipeline is fully scoped — the contract award is the missing link

• All momentum now shifts to those who are ready to move

This is the pivot. And we’re in prime position to lead it.

“There are decades where nothing happens, and there are weeks where decades happen.”

— Lenin