Member Info for Prospero26

Let’s calmly dismantle the latest weekly post from a familiar figure — the same individual operating under multiple aliases to suppress sentiment and inject fear. Here’s the truth behind each claim:

“Aminex owns 25%???”

Aminex holds 25% under the PSA. TPDC may elect to back in for 10% post-development (paid interest). That would leave AEX with 22.5% — standard and already factored into project economics.

“Where’s the CPR?”

Ntorya was assessed by RPS in 2018 at 1.87 TCF gross (2C). That CPR is valid. A new one isn’t urgent — Aminex is fully carried, and not seeking funding. The idea that no CPR = something to hide is pure speculation.

“Stratigraphic traps? Pockets of gas?”

NT-2 flowed 17 MMscfd from a 51m gas-bearing zone. That’s not a pocket. Ntorya is a structural trap with multiple stacked pays — not an exploration concept, but a tested discovery.

“GSAs can be ignored. See Orca.”

Irrelevant comparison. Orca’s issues stemmed from legacy offshore contracts and payment politics. Ntorya’s gas is domestic, onshore, and contracted directly into the national infrastructure. TPDC is the buyer — not just a regulator.

“Pipeline funding may fall short.”

Tanzania budgeted $20 million for the pipeline in FY 2024/25. That covers civil works and EPC. Governments don’t pre-fund before award. The EPC contract defines cost — and it’s due now.

“They’ve been ‘on the verge’ forever.”

Delays? Yes — until ARA took control in 2020. Since then: licence granted, GSA signed, 30+ tenders out, pipeline EPC imminent. This is what execution looks like.

“All costs paid?”

Yes — within the carry cap. CH-1, pipeline and tie-in are covered. Aminex has no debt, no raise needed to unlock value. Then income covers future costs. That’s the point of a production-phase carry — to get to cash flow without dilution.

“$100m tax loss? Losses are bad.”

Losses become tax shields. Future profits will be offset for years. This has real financial value. Ask any CFO.

“Aminex is in financial distress.”

False. No debt. Low cash burn. Fully carried. If a raise is needed later, it’ll be strategic — not survival. That’s not distress.

“Expect promotion, placement, collapse, short covering.”

A pure narrative play. No evidence. Just paranoia meant to undermine sentiment ahead of news. A textbook suppression tactic.

This isn’t technical analysis. It’s fear dressed as insight.

The reality?

• A proven multi TCF discovery

• Fully funded through CH-1 and hook-up

• EPC contract pending

• A government partner with budget and urgency

They grasp at doubt because they know what’s coming.

They try to delay you because they can’t stop it.

“Skepticism is healthy. But if you’re only ever skeptical, you’ll miss every opportunity.”

— Howard Marks

Every day, someone turns up to tell you Aminex is worthless.

He says he’s a shareholder.

He says he’s “just being realistic.”

He says he’s here “for the craic.”

But let’s ask the real question:

Who holds shares in a company they claim to despise, yet devotes thousands of hours over 10+ years trying to destroy confidence in it?

This isn’t frustration. It’s orchestration.

There is one individual—let’s be clear—operating under multiple aliases.

• As RoJo, he plays the provocateur: bitter, mocking, confrontational.

• As Prosciutto, he plays the analyst: cold, technical, loaded with fear.

Same person. Two personas. One mission: suppress sentiment.

He’s not here to discuss. He’s here to control the narrative.

Tactics:

RoJo engages emotionally, baiting replies and flooding the board with noise.

Prosciutto drops selective technical points, always negative, never replies.

It’s not a conversation. It’s manipulation.

Why this board? Because he knows this board matters.

The LSE chatboard is the heart of retail sentiment. It shapes confidence and fuels momentum. That’s why his mission is constant:

Disrupt it. Dilute it. Derail it.

And let’s not forget—this same man claims to be a multi-millionaire with a Porsche, a Bentley, and a house in Provence… yet spends bank holiday weekends obsessively posting about a 1p stock. Sure.

The Motive:

This isn’t about caution or warning others.

It’s about keeping the price low until a position is built.

If he truly thought Aminex was worthless, he’d walk away. If he believed in it, he’d hold quietly.

But if he’s acting for someone accumulating… this is exactly what he’d do:

• Poison sentiment

• Drown out optimism

• Kill momentum before it starts

And that effort?

If you look behind the curtain, you’ll see it’s not a red flag. It’s a bullish indicator!

Nobody works this hard to suppress something worthless. He sees what’s coming—he just doesn’t want you to!

The Truth:

• Aminex is fully funded and carried

• NT-2 is proven and ready for hook-up

• Pipeline construction tenders are live

• CNPC is the likely EPC contractor

• Chikumbi-1 will unlock the full field

There’s no question what’s coming—only when.

So next time he tells you he’s “just being realistic,” ask:

Who spends thousands of posts across multiple aliases trying to destroy confidence in something they supposedly own?

Only someone whose real gain lies in keeping you away.

“Those who were seen dancing were thought to be mad by those who could not hear the music.”

— Nietzsche

Some days, it’s easy to forget what we’re actually here for.

But zoom out — and look at what’s quietly unfolding behind the noise:

• 34 infrastructure tenders from ARA Petroleum

• Fresh TPDC tender for:

“Calibration and Certification of Ultrasonic Flowmeters – Madimba GPP and Gas Pipeline”

(Tender No. TR24/001/2024/2025/NC/26, issued 21 May)

• Fertiliser MoU confirms imminent new gas sources

• CNPC quietly linked to the EPC contract

• And sites under preparation in the field

Why does the flowmeter tender matter?

Because you only calibrate and certify flowmeters when new gas flow is coming. It’s one of the final steps before production. This isn’t admin — it’s activation.

Aminex isn’t drifting. It’s mobilising. And those paying attention aren’t arguing — they’re positioning.

…. The rerate won’t wait for first gas — it begins with the EPC contract award. Tick-tock :-)

Sometimes, you need to step outside the echo chamber. Here’s what a real-world benchmark says Aminex could be worth — today.

In African gas, few projects are better benchmarks than Nigeria’s Uquo Field. Why? Because it’s commercial, producing, and fully valued — today.

And when we apply that benchmark to Aminex, the upside becomes crystal clear.

Uquo – real numbers, real valuation

Owned 80% by Savannah Energy, Uquo is:

• A non-associated natural gas field

• With 456 Bscf of 2P reserves

• Linked to the Accugas network, supplying over 10% of Nigeria’s grid power

Savannah’s March 2024 CPR reports:

• NPV10 (Uquo gas field, net 80%) = $329.4m → full upstream value = $411.75m

• NPV10 (Accugas infra, net) = $636.3m

Combined project value: $1.048 billion

→ Valuation per Bscf:

• Upstream only: $411.75m ÷ 456 = $0.90/Bscf

• Upstream + infra: $1.048bn ÷ 456 = $2.30/Bscf

Note: Uquo’s higher $2.30/Bscf figure includes infrastructure owned by Savannah (pipelines, gas plant). At Ntorya, TPDC will fund and own the pipeline — meaning Aminex won’t bear CAPEX but also won’t capture midstream margin. So the $0.90/Bscf upstream-only value is the fairest direct benchmark.

Now apply that to Ntorya:

• 3.45 TCF (3,450 Bscf) gross

• Aminex holds 25% = 862.5 Bscf net

• Fully carried through to production

• Pipeline tenders issued; CNPC widely expected as EPC

• TPDC just signed a $1.4bn fertiliser deal reliant on domestic gas

Apply Uquo’s upstream multiple:

• 862.5 × $0.90 = $776m

→ Apply 50% discount for pre-production = $388m

Converted to GBP (0.79 rate):

→ £306m

→ ~7.3p/share vs today’s 1.15p

And here’s what’s not priced in:

Condensate upside:

• ARA’s 2024 report confirms ~20 million barrels recoverable

• Aminex 25% = 5 million barrels

• At $70/bbl = $350m gross to AEX

→ That’s worth ~6.6p/share in value on its own

Kiliwani North:

• Legacy production license near Songo Songo

• No value currently assigned

Tax assets + cash:

• Over $100m in tax losses

• Likely shields future revenue

• $3.5m in cash on hand

And the prize could be even bigger

ARA’s 2024 seismic report estimates ~16.4 TCF unrisked GIIP across the full Mtwara licence, with a risked Pmean of ~6.9 TCF. Ntorya’s 3.45 TCF is just the start.

If future drilling confirms that scale, Aminex’s net share could rise to ~1.725 TCF, double today’s 862.5 Bscf.

And when Ntorya reaches first gas, the 50% pre-production discount can be removed — meaning that 7.3p/share fair value today could double to ~14.6p+ in production.

CH-1 won’t just prove more gas. It could unlock a stacked, basin-scale development — and Aminex owns 25% of all of it.

This isn’t hype. This is a benchmark.

Uquo is producing. Ntorya is preparing.

Aminex is carried, larger, and on the cusp of execution.

The rerate won’t wait for first ga

With all eyes on tenders, contracts, and catalysts… it’s easy to miss the most valuable part of the Aminex story:

The Carry.

Aminex is 100% carried through to production by ARA Petroleum. That means:

• $140m+ of project capex fully funded

• No debt. No dilution. No further investment required

• Every milestone — pipeline, production, revenue — is delivered without us spending a penny

Let that sink in.

We’re not hoping for a partner. We have one. And they’re one of the most capable operators in the region, already executing across Oman and Tanzania.

And it’s not just the money. It’s the positioning:

• Aminex owns 25% of a proven discovery

• With a signed gas sales agreement

• Backed by the Tanzanian government

• On the verge of construction and development

• With all future costs paid

You rarely get this alignment:

A carried minority in a rising energy market, at the very bottom of the valuation curve.

When TPDC signs the EPC, the re-rate won’t just be about “progress.” It’ll be about the unlocked value of the carry — because Aminex will go from fully funded to near-term producing, instantly !!

That’s the beauty of our position.

Let others worry about raising money or chasing permits. We just wait — and let the machine move forward.

Because once CH-1 drills, and NT-2 flows, and the gas starts earning…

We get 25%. Of everything. Fully funded.

“The key to making money in stocks is not to get scared out of them.”

— Peter Lynch

Thanks LeaGreen — good point to raise, but a few clarifications.

President Erdogan said Turkey’s 75 bcm discovery will meet household demand for 3.5 years — so it’s for domestic use, not export.

Same as Ntorya — but here’s why Tanzania’s domestic focus is a massive advantage for us:

1. Guaranteed offtake — gas already contracted via TPDC to the grid

2. Onshore, low-cost — no offshore rigs, no LNG, fully carried

3. USD-linked revenues — local market, but dollar-denominated earnings

4. Government-backed — TPDC is both buyer and stakeholder

5. Long-term demand — power, fertiliser, CNG… Tanzania needs this gas

So while Turkey’s find is great, Ntorya ticks every box:

Secured offtake. Lower costs. Imminent development. Massive upside.

We’re not chasing global exports. We’re meeting local rising demand — and getting paid well for it.

Spot on, Roger — and this fertiliser deal is a huge piece of the puzzle finally falling into place.

A $1.4bn investment signed — backed by the Tanzanian government — and TPDC publicly stating the plant will rely on gas “from existing wells.” Problem is - and you righty highlight - Mnazi Bay and Songo Songo can’t supply 70 mmscfd. That’s Ntorya’s lane.

This isn’t future demand — it’s real, committed offtake that needs gas soon. And there’s only one fully appraised, development-ready field not currently producing: Ntorya.

This news does 3 things:

1. Confirms the offtake case.

2. Puts pressure on TPDC to move.

3. Makes EPC contract signature feel imminent.

Let’s be clear — this latest move shows that the clock has started.

Next stop: pipeline contract

Then: site mobilisation

Then: first gas

And all while CH-1 creeps closer…

This is the prelude to a full-blown re-rate.

“Turkey announces $30-billion Black Sea discovery. May 20, 2025. Goktepe-3 well said to contain 75 billion cubic meters of gas.”

Turkey just announced a major new gas find: 75 billion cubic metres (bcm) in the Black Sea.

That’s equivalent to 2.65 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) — almost a Tcf less than the 3.45 Tcf 2C resource already booked at Ntorya.

Yet the Turkish discovery is all over the global press, framed as a “strategic breakthrough.”

Let’s compare:

Turkey’s Find (Black Sea):

• 2.65 Tcf

• Deepwater offshore – high capex

• Decades of development risk

• Major national fanfare

Ntorya Field (Tanzania):

• 3.45 Tcf 2C, up to 16.4 Tcf unrisked

• Onshore – cheap to drill, fast to develop

• Fully carried to production

• Pipeline EPC imminent

• Gas already earmarked for industrial demand (fertiliser, power)

And yet… Aminex trades at a ~£40m market cap.

Turkey’s 75 bcm is big news — and rightly so. But if that is a game-changer, what do you call 3.45 Tcf onshore, proven, and close to monetisation?

This market isn’t just asleep. It’s in a coma.

But the moment TPDC signs the pipeline EPC, Ntorya gets re-rated not just as a discovery — but as a project in motion. And then the value delta becomes too big to ignore.

We’re not speculating on whether there’s gas. We’re not waiting on a buyer or wondering how to sell it. We’re on the brink of execution — with gas, partners, customers, and infrastructure lining up.

One final thought:

Turkey’s reserve = 2.65 Tcf = global headlines

Ntorya = 3.45 Tcf (2C) = retail punters bickering on AIM

Something’s off.

And when the market catches up — it won’t be gradual.

It’ll be violent.

There’s been a lot of debate lately about whether Aminex (AEX), at a ~£42m market cap, can meaningfully re-rate before drilling or production.

Some say the market is “already pricing it in.” Others say the big move won’t happen until CH-1 spuds.

But that theory falls apart when you look at what just happened with Pantheon Resources (PANR).

The PANR Parallel

• September 2024: PANR was trading around 14p, with a market cap of ~£100m

• March 2025: Share price hit 73p

• Market cap soared to ~£500m+ — all before production

What changed?

• Independent validation of recoverable resources

• Clear monetisation strategy via phased development

• A flood of institutional and retail interest once the fog cleared

Sound familiar?

Why This Matters for AEX

Aminex is walking the same path — just earlier in the curve:

• Fully carried to production

• Gas Sales Agreement signed

• 25-year Development Licence in place

• EPC contract imminent

• CH-1 unlocking deeper, untested zones

Yet our market cap? Just £42m.

If PANR went 5x from £100m on clarity, momentum, and belief — imagine what happens when AEX triggers its own cascade:

• EPC → mobilisation → NT-2 monetisation → CH-1

This isn’t hope. This is a project shifting from “potential” to “execution.”

And here’s the twist:

Today, PANR’s share price collapsed following the initial results from their Megrez-1 appraisal well — which, while geologically interesting, raised concerns about commerciality.

That’s the risk when the path to monetisation isn’t fully proven.

CH-1 is also an appraisal — but the difference is night and day.

• We’ve already flowed 17 MMscfd from NT-2

• CH-1 is targeting zones 4–5x thicker, with proven gas and stacked potential

• And it’s backed by infrastructure, a GSA, and a $35m carry to first production

The market doesn’t wait for the gas to flow.

It moves when the path is lit !

StockCheque — as always, I appreciate a thoughtful post, but I want to challenge a few key assumptions in your argument:

“AEX is already a £42m company with no revenue, so the kind of pre-drill or pre-production re-rates we see in microcaps is unlikely.”

On the surface, it sounds reasonable. But when you dig into historical comparables, the reality is very different.

Comparable moves from similar market caps

• Chariot (CHAR) — 2021

• Started ~£42m market cap

• Re-rated to £200m+ before first gas on Anchois momentum

• Helium One (HE1) — 2021

• Market cap ~£40m

• Hit £180m+ pre-discovery, purely on speculative sentiment

• Sound Energy (SOU) — 2016

• ~£50m market cap

• Ran to £400m+ before monetisation on Moroccan drill success

Each of these companies re-rated 4x–8x from the same levels AEX sits at today.

Not because they were producing, but because the market started front-running

The key isn’t waiting for first gas or CH-1 results — it’s recognising when risk collapses and visibility appears. That moment is coming:

• EPC contract signing means infrastructure is happening

• ARA and TPDC tender activity confirms mobilisation is real

• NT-2 monetisation flips Aminex from “hope” to “cash flow imminent”

• And CH-1 then becomes amplification — not validation

The re-rate doesn’t wait for production. It starts when the market sees it’s inevitable.

I’ve read your posts over the years. You were ultra-bullish when risk was high, infrastructure uncertain, and timelines unclear.

Now we’re closer than we’ve ever been — and you’re cautious?

You may well be managing an entry, and that’s totally fair. But the danger is assuming there’ll still be time to get in once the crowd arrives. In these setups, the real moves happen fast, and from seemingly “fair” levels.

AEX isn’t “too big to move.”

It’s poised — de-risked, carried, and on the edge of execution. The only question is whether you want to be ahead of the fuse… or chasing it once it’s lit…

Hi StockCheque.

Appreciate the thoughtful post — always good to hear from someone who’s been around the block. That said, I think there’s a key point being missed here.

Yes, the market’s changed — more short-termism, more noise, more algorithmic churn. But when a company presents clear monetisation, infrastructure certainty, and upside leverage, that still cuts through. And Aminex is about to deliver all three.

We’re not trading hopes and timelines anymore. We’re trading:

• An EPC contract that unlocks the route to revenue

• A rig contract that positions for reserve expansion

• A fully carried path to £30m+ in net cashflow

That’s the exact setup that still triggers rerates — even in today’s reactive markets.

Want some examples? Let’s stay strictly in the “pre-production, pre-discovery” lane:

• Chariot (Jan 2022) – MoU for GSA + infrastructure plan. 7p to 20p. No production. No drill result. Just monetisation clarity.

• Sound Energy (Nov 2021) – GSA signed. 1.5p to 4p. Again, no first gas.

• Helium One (late 2020) – Rig mobilisation + drill prep. 2p to 11p. No helium produced.

• Kistos (Q1 2021) – Acquired monetisable asset. Rerated from 100p to 230p pre-production ramp.

• Zephyr (late 2022) – Announced drill mobilisation + JV strategy. 4p to 8p.

What triggered these moves?

Clarity. Momentum. Forward visibility.

And that’s exactly what Aminex is about to deliver — with better economics and a stronger strategic position than many of the above.

You’re right that some stale bulls will sell, and some traders will flip in and out. That’s always the case. But when the setup is this tight — micro float, conviction holders, and a £45m MCAP against £30m+ projected free cash flow — the rerate isn’t a question of if, but when.

Respect caution, as always. But let’s not underestimate what’s about to unfold…

Hi Ivans, you’re missing the bigger picture. You’re technically quoting the timeline correctly — first gas is mid-2026 — but the excitement / trigger isn’t about cash flow now, it’s about de-risking, visibility, and imminent value recognition.

There are several short-term excitement drivers (pre-first gas):

1. EPC Contract Award (Imminent)

This proves TPDC is moving forward. No more “will they build the pipeline?” — once signed, it’s on. Market responds immediately to that clarity.

2. CH-1 Drilling Preparation

As soon as the rig is contracted (likely this year), we’re talking about a new exploration/development well targeting massive upside. Success here multiplies reserves and pushes valuations much higher.

3. Pipeline Construction Start

Physical activity = reality. Once CNPC or the contractor is on site, it signals execution. Institutions and funds often wait for physical progress before entering — that inflow drives price.

4. Tanzania Political Momentum

Energy security is now a national priority. Ministerial backing and gas expansion policies support near-term momentum. Big macro story brewing.

5. Re-Rate as a Carried Producer

Aminex is fully funded, fully carried to production. As that reality sinks in, investors start pricing in that future cash flow — not waiting for the cash to arrive, but acting on the certainty it’s coming.

Markets are forward-looking. They don’t wait for the first dollar to hit the bank — they reprice based on:

• Proven path to revenue

• Reduced project risk

• Real progress on infrastructure

• Near-term drilling catalysts

And when you combine:

• Micro float

• Tightly held shares by LTH’s

• Massive leverage to success

• Retail & institutional return of confidence

You get a re rate that makes 1.10p look laughable in hindsight, way before first gas.

This week brought plenty of noise, but beneath it, something much more important happened: a coordinated set of operational signals that suggest the long-anticipated development phase is finally upon us.

Let’s look at facts—not feelings.

• ARA issued 34 separate tenders for services ranging from welding and heavy machinery to accommodation, fuel supply, and security. That’s not exploratory. That’s operational.

• These packages are structured for field execution, not long-range planning. You don’t run a procurement effort of this scale unless the EPC award is imminent and mobilisation is expected shortly after.

• CNPC, a globally proven pipeline builder and the original Mtwara-Dar Es Salaam pipeline contractor, is widely expected to be awarded the work. If confirmed, that’s a major strategic and reputational boost to the Ntorya project.

• Aminex remains fully carried through to production, with a 25% interest in a project backed by signed gas sales agreements and a revised 3C resource in excess of 3.4 TCF.

No hype in any of that. Just steady progress.

I understand ARA Petroleum Tanzania Ltd have just issued a wave of tenders — 34 in total this May alone — relating to operations in both Mtwara and Dar es Salaam, with a heavy focus on field support in the Ntorya region.

This isn’t theory. It’s execution.

Here’s just a sample of the services now being sourced for Mtwara operations:

• Hotels

• 4×4 field vehicles (cars, buses, etc.)

• Car rental services

• Site security services

• Field logistics (cranes, forklifts, trucks, trailers, JCBs, etc.)

• Rental equipment (porta cabins, diesel gensets, compressors)

• Potable water supply

• API-certified machining services

• Emergency medical evacuation & support

• Field manpower services

• Air, water, and soil sampling

• Site cleaning & fumigation

• Printing/media (advertising, coverage)

• Event management services

This level of procurement is not business-as-usual — it’s the kind of comprehensive mobilisation that precedes major on-site operations.

It suggests pipeline work and CH-1 preparations are close, and the Ntorya development is entering a new, active phase.

The market may still be catching up. But from where I’m standing, the signs are everywhere.

GLA.

You’re quite right, apologies it’s 24th June - in my diary for the wrong day :-)

Just waiting on the official news now Edgar, but having CNPC in charge of the Ntorya spur pipeline shows that the TPDC and Tanzanian government place huge importance on the Ntorya project.

As we know, CNPC are one of the largest integrated energy groups in the world, and having built the main Mtwara–Dar es Salaam Natural Gas Pipeline (over 500km long), this will be a piece of cake for them! GLA

Midweek Thesis blocked earlier on LSE.

Now posted in full on Twitter under @ProsperoAex

Title: “True Value Hiding in Plain Sight”

Prospero here – Midweek Thesis Blocked

Tried to post today’s full Midweek Thesis just now and LSE won’t allow it—likely flagged by one of the usual suspects trying desperately to control the narrative.

It’s ready. It’s written. And it hits hard.

So rather than be silenced, I’ll be sharing the full version shortly via alternative means.

That’s