Member Info for Prospero26

1.80p and climbing, but this is still the foothills.

Ntorya is no longer just a discovery. It’s a developing multi-TCF asset with a signed pipeline project, ready to build, NT-2 gas tied to demand, CH-1 targeting stacked zones on 3D seismic and currently being planned for execution, a government backing it as strategic infrastructure.

The valuation disconnect is wild. We’re not chasing dreams, we’re aligning with execution.

NT-2 appraised the discovery. CH-1 will help define the field. It will be one of the highest impact onshore drills in recent history ! And from there, it’s not about upside… it’s about scale.

When you think back to the impact of the Ntorya 2 drill, which was merely an appraisal of an already discovered reservoir, then consider that CH1 is an appraisal of a vastly thicker part of that same discovery plus, but can also confirm new discoveries in a stacked play, then the mind absolutely boggles as to where this could end up on a successful result ! :-)

Exactly right NM. NT-2 gave us the confidence to commercialise Ntorya as a single reservoir. That alone was enough to justify infrastructure.

But CH-1 is different. It’s designed to prove up multiple stacked reservoirs, and if that comes off, it fundamentally changes the scale of the development.

We’re no longer just appraising a discovery, we’re potentially unlocking a multi-layered system with serious vertical scale. Get that right, and everything shifts… reserves, production profiles, offtake options, long-term value.

Now it’s about staying on track and delivering. The upside takes care of itself !!

Wilson Makembe’s view, who correctly called the EPC contract to CPP way in advance…

“This nails it and sums up most of it. So, APT won't be waiting on M&P. Now best guess is to bring the rig from Kuwait (2nd option presented in Q2).”

Lots of chunky buys coming through now. Extremely encouraging, and price should continue to build and strengthen into the AGM !

Excellent summary, and beautiful looking list, Gaslady, spot on.

Ntorya isn’t just a gas play. It’s the cornerstone of Tanzania’s energy, industrial, and fiscal future. The scale, the infrastructure, and the strategic backing make it a national priority. And with Aminex fully carried and holding 25%, the leverage here is extraordinary.

When you zoom out, the upside isn’t just operational, it’s generational.

Bang on Gaslady ! And that was with AEX controlling operations., we’ve now got ARA at the reigns and if they need to move quickly then they absolutely can and will !!

Let’s cut the noise.

Aminex owns 25% of the Ntorya gas field. This is not a theory, it’s a booked, confirmed multi-TCF discovery.

• 3.45 TCF (P50)

• 7.95 TCF (P10)

That alone puts Ntorya among the largest undeveloped onshore gas fields in East Africa !!

The pipeline is no longer speculative. The EPC contract is signed, the contractors are appointed, and the build is officially underway with a stated 8-month timeline. This is TPDC’s flagship gas development and it’s moving. FAST!

Chikumbi-1 is not a question of “if.” The rig strategy has been submitted to PURA. APT will not be sharing a rig. Timelines remain on track for a Q1 2026 spud.

And Aminex? We’re fully carried. Every £/$ of capex is paid for by APT, and we retain a full 25% of the upside: production, condensate, additional offtake, and future wells. All of it.

So what’s that worth?

On a very conservative gas-in-ground valuation at just $1.00 per MMBtu:

• 3.45 TCF = $3.45 billion

• Our 25% = $862.5 million = £638 million at 0.74

• With 4.2 billion shares, that’s 15.2p per share

Even applying a 50% haircut for pre-production risk gives us ~7.6p per share.

And yet the market is pricing us at just 1.625p.

Alternatively, if you value it on future income:

• Phase 1 (140 MMscf/d): ~$40 million/year net to AEX = £29.6 million/year

• Phase 2 (280 MMscf/d): ~$80m–$100m/year potential = £59m–£74m/year

• Apply a 5x multiple and you’re at a £295m–£370m valuation

• That’s 7p–8.8p per share

In both models, we are deeply undervalued. And the catalysts are not theoretical, they’re happening now:

• Pipeline construction in progress

• CH-1 rig tender coming ASAP and timing understood

• Free carry to first gas

• Massive production upside

• Government and national backing at every level

This is a rare alignment: proven resource, funded execution, and a dislocated market cap.

We hold our ground. We know what we own. And we let the market catch up the hard way.

Great post, SC, bang on the money.

ARA’s deep-pocketed, deeply professional, and absolutely not in the business of cutting corners at Ntorya. This is a critical, high-pressure asset and they’ve treated it as such from day one. You don’t parade a rig in front of Tanzanian ministers for fun, and you certainly don’t share one unless there’s no other option.

Now we’ve got confirmation that the drilling of CH1 is being expedited, that means APT won’t be hanging around waiting for another company to drill three wells before having a go…

Plans are in motion. Timelines are aligning. And when CH-1 spuds, it’ll be with ARA’s chosen rig, on ARA’s terms, with maximum confidence.

Wilson Makembe just confirmed what many suspected:

“APT won’t be sharing the rig after all.”

That’s massive.

It means one thing and one thing only, they’re going solo.

No delays. No scheduling conflicts. No dependency on other drill programs.

They’ve secured the pathway, submitted the full rig tender strategy to PURA, and now it’s just ticking the boxes.

Tick. Tick. Boom.

APT is clearing every hurdle before the pipeline finishes so they can hit the ground running the moment gas flows from NT-2.

That’s not theory. That’s the plan.

Straight from the RNS. Straight from TPDC. Straight from Wilson.

Once PURA signs off, which they’ve committed to doing by mid-August, the countdown begins.

Drill prep. Mobilisation. CH-1.

This isn’t a “maybe someday” project anymore.

It’s happening.

It’s building.

And very very soon, it’s drilling.

Let’s not overthink it.

This RNS was everything we’ve waited for, and now the fuse is lit.

• Pipeline confirmed.

• Start date confirmed (July).

• Completion target confirmed (July 2026).

• CH-1 prep fully underway.

• Tender strategy submitted to PURA.

• Rig tender due within weeks.

• Aminex finally, finally, at the gates of execution.

APT don’t look to be sharing rigs. They’ve submitted a full, standalone drilling strategy. The rig tender is real. And when PURA gives the green light, it all kicks off.

CH-1 is happening!! Not if. When.

The importance of this cannot be overstated:

Ntorya is now a development-stage field.

No longer potential. No longer theory. The Government of Tanzania, TPDC, and APT are building it. Aminex isn’t hoping, it’s carried through it.

The project now has a timeline.

Gas flowing mid-2026. Rig mobilising likely Q4 2025. CH-1 spudding likely in Q1. You can now trace the cashflow. You can now see the upside.

And the market? Still fast asleep.

We are still trading at around 1.7p. That’s a £69 million market cap for 25 percent of the most strategic gas asset in East Africa, with carried drilling, near-term revenue, and multi-TCF upside.

Let’s talk share price.

Assuming no surprises (just execution), here’s how I see it playing out over the next 12 months:

Pre-AGM (next week): 2.0 to 2.2p

Momentum building. People starting to connect the dots.

Late August (PURA approval, rig tender): 2.5p and above.

Confirmation that CH-1 is truly coming. The market begins to front-run the re-rate.

Q4 2025 (rig contract awarded, mobilisation begins): 3.0 to 4.0p

The pipeline will be visibly under construction. CH-1 prep begins. Valuation gap narrows.

Q1 2026 (CH-1 spud): 5.5p to 6.5p spike range

This is the moment. The drill hits the deck. Everyone who waited on the sidelines scrambles to get in.

Post-drill success, resource upgrade, flow rate and condensate data:

7.5p and beyond. Possibly double digits. Especially if condensate volumes are significant and additional offtake demand is confirmed.

This isn’t ramping.

It’s reality catching up with value.

The silence is ending. The build is beginning.

And every step from here adds proof.

The market rewards proof.

And proof is now pouring in!

Crusty, I am also having a hard time getting confirmation of registered attendance via ii, the below was my latest reply…

“Your request was processed by our voting service provider on 03/07/2025 and was then forwarded to Euroclear to be processed on 04/07/2025. We should receive confirmation that Euroclear has processed your request after the record date of the meeting which is 18/07/2025.”

Looking forward to the AGM and getting confirmation of an operational timetable now that the EPC contract is in motion ! IMO we should finally get answers on CH1 anticipated timing.

Edgar, great question, and you’re right to dig deeper.

Flowrate isn’t only about sand thickness.. but when porosity, permeability, and pressure are consistent, thicker gas pay = higher potential flow. It’s about the effective net pay can perforate.

Here’s why CH-1 could blow NT-2 out of the water:

Same sands, far thicker section: CH-1 is stepping out structurally and is expected to intersect up to 8–12x the thickness NT-2 hit.

Same quality + more footage = more flow: If the reservoir properties hold across that section, you’re essentially opening a wider hose.

NT-2 flowed 17 MMscf/d from a very narrow slice and at a restricted rate. Scale that up conservatively and 20 MMscf/d on CH-1 starts to look like a baseline, not a ceiling.

ARA is playing it safe in forecasts, but the geological setup suggests far greater deliverability is in play.

So no, thickness alone isn’t enough. But thick, porous, gas-bearing sands with good permeability? That’s the formula. Let the drill prove it. Very exciting !

Thirteen additional wells GL !! Just sit with that for a moment…

You don’t approve a 25-year licence or commit to a fivefold production ramp unless you’re sitting on a field of true national and regional importance.

This isn’t a small play with a short shelf life, it’s a long-term strategic asset, now gearing up to power homes, cities, and cross-border trade.

From 60 to 140 to 280 MMscfd and beyond

From 3 wells to 16 !!

From stuck-in-limbo to fully licensed, funded, and building out.

The Ntorya field is evolving in real time, and with each phase, the disconnect between market price and asset value grows more absurd.

Drill quicker. Think longer. We’re just getting started.

The Ntorya gas project isn’t just about volumes. It’s about visibility, velocity and vision.

Tanzania is at an inflection point.

• A population set to double by 2050

• Over 7.7 million households without electricity

• 90% of homes still cooking with firewood or charcoal

• 33,000 lives lost each year to toxic indoor smoke

• Millions of hectares of forest cut down annually for fuel

And yet, right now, beneath southern Tanzania lies a 3.45 TCF (P50) gas field, fully licensed, fully funded, and now, finally, fully activated.

• Pipeline EPC contract signed, with Chinese partners appointed, timeline confirmed and effective upon signature

• 140 MMscf/d in first phase, scaling toward 280 MMscf/d and beyond

• Aminex is carried and free-funded through to production

• NT-2 to be hooked up; CH-1 drill and NT-1 workover ready to follow

• 338km² of seismic complete, the largest onshore campaign in East Africa revealing enormity of the field

This is no longer theory. It’s motion.

And that motion sits right at the heart of Tanzania’s strategy for eliminating energy poverty and building industrial resilience. Ntorya will be one of very few gas fields globally to reach monetisation during this stage of the energy transition, not in spite of it, but because of it.

Natural gas is no longer a Western exit fuel.

It’s a development engine for the Global South.

And in that context, Aminex isn’t just a junior. It’s a quiet, heavily-leveraged stake in a national-scale transformation.

If the market still can’t see it, good.

Because once it does, the value gap won’t just close.

It’ll snap.

TPDC has confirmed:

- EPC contract signed

- TZS 120 billion allocated

- Compensation paid to 255 affected people

- Chinese firms appointed

- Timeline confirmed: 8–12 months

This isn’t theory. It’s a national project, now underway, funded, and published in the Tanzanian press.

Some posters are either months behind…

Or pretending to be.

Meanwhile, AEX remains fully funded, fully carried, and poised for drill.

Tick… tick… tick.

The February 2024 ARA report confirms what many still don’t fully grasp:

3.45 TCF GIIP

80% recovery = 2.76 TCF recoverable

Aminex owns 25% = 690 BCF net to company

~5 million barrels of condensate

Pipeline under construction

CH-1 fully carried — no placing required

So how do you value 690 BCF?

Across Africa, onshore gas assets with infrastructure in motion often transact / are valued at between $1.50 and $2.50 per mcf. That range is supported by comparables like:

– Savannah Energy (Uquo, Nigeria)

– Panoro / Perenco (Etinde, Cameroon)

At those headline rates, Aminex’s net stake in Ntorya would equate to:

$1.50/mcf = $1.035 billion / ~£767 million / ~18.2p/share

$2.00/mcf = $1.38 billion / ~£1.02 billion / ~24.1p/share

$2.50/mcf = $1.725 billion / ~£1.28 billion / ~30.2p/share

(Assumes 4.22bn shares and $1.35/£ FX)

Now compare that to today:

Share price = 1.48p

Market cap = ~£62.5 million = ~$84.4 million

Implied valuation = just $0.12/mcf

Of course, those valuations reflect producing or near-producing status. Ntorya isn’t there yet (but it’s getting close!!) so a 50% risk adjustment is currently prudent.

Even then, the adjusted values are enormous:

$0.75/mcf = $517 million / ~£383 million / ~9.1p/share

$1.00/mcf = $690 million / ~£511 million /~12.1p/share

$1.25/mcf = $862 million / ~£638 million / ~15.1p/share

Any way you slice it, Aminex is trading at a tiny fraction of its resource value, despite being fully funded, de-risked, and weeks away from field mobilisation.

This isn’t priced.

It’s primed.

A fair question Bhod, and one that’s come up in small-cap circles for years. Proving paid manipulation is notoriously difficult because the tactics are designed to avoid detection. But the patterns often speak for themselves.

• Repetitive messaging across multiple accounts

• No engagement with positive developments (or deliberate downplaying)

• Attacking sentiment rather than facts

• Midday midweek posting spikes like clockwork

• And most tellingly: radio silence whenever the story strengthens

You don’t need a paper trail to see a strategy in motion.

Whether it’s organised or just one twisted individual with too much time and a grudge… the outcome is the same: relentless effort to keep the market in disbelief while value quietly builds beneath the surface.

The good news? It only works while volume is low and attention is off.

But when the coil unwinds, oh and it will, no amount of keyboard theatre will hold it back.

Looking forward to seeing what you come back with, RogerJ - appreciate the effort. The beauty of this setup is that however you slice it, the coiled spring is real: pipeline construction confirmed, CH-1 fully funded and being prepared for, and no dilution in sight.

All of that’s before we even get into the upside potential on field size, condensate, or new offtake options. Any reasonable model ends up pointing in the same direction: this is hugely undervalued and loaded with leverage to what’s coming.

And that’s exactly why we’re seeing such relentless noise and sentiment suppression across the board. When a setup is so potentially lucrative, distraction becomes a tactic, because truth is too dangerous to leave alone.

Crunch it however you like; it all smells like value from here !!

Aminex isn’t drifting. It’s coiling.

We’ve seen this setup before in undervalued O&G stocks… long periods of quiet, low-volume trading, and disbelief… right before the spring releases. But this one’s different. This one’s got structure behind it.

1. The Carry Is Everything

CH-1 is fully funded via the ARA farm-out. That means there’s been no dilution, no placing, and no capital raise to suppress the share price in the lead-up to the drill.

In most juniors, any strength before spud is capped by the expectation of a placing to fund it. And the impact of the drill result muted due to the churn of the issued shares. Not here.

The carry means that when the market wakes up, there’s nothing to hold it down.

2. Drill Fully Funded. Pipeline Underway.

TPDC has now confirmed that pipeline construction is starting with Chinese contractors. Compensation has been paid. The route is set. Ntorya gas is being commercialised.

CH-1 is not a concept, it’s a funded, forward-moving asset. And it’s coming on the heels of NT-2 gas flow. That’s a rare convergence of production and growth happening together.

3. The Float Is Tight

Many of the shares are now in long-term hands. Holders who understand the field’s true scale, and know what a carried CH-1 well into a growing pipeline means.

There’s limited weak retail churn, no frothy overbought top. Just a core investor base waiting for the trigger.

4. No Sellers. No Noise. Just Pressure.

Days with £15–20k volume and no price movement aren’t signs of weakness—they’re signs of exhaustion. There are no sellers. No major churn. No exit.

The market is waiting. But when the trigger hits, whether it’s rig confirmation, visible drill prep, or a timeline declaration, the liquidity gap above this price is wide. And sharp.

This is not a spike in motion. It’s a slingshot being drawn back, quietly, tightly, and with intent.

And the longer it coils, the harder it moves.