Member Info for Prospero26

BP - This line of argument gets more detached from reality with every passing week.

It is foolish to be seriously suggesting that ARA might spend years acquiring the asset, funding seismic, proving up a multi-TCF discovery, advancing development plans, preparing drilling campaigns, integrating with a state-backed export pipeline, and coordinating directly with the Ministry of Energy… only to suddenly walk away right before monetisation.

It honestly makes no commercial sense whatsoever. And the more operational progress accelerates, the more absurd the theory becomes.

Pipeline construction is already underway. Materials are in-country. Tenders have been evaluated. The latest Annual Report explicitly references CH-1 drilling and completion remaining “on schedule,” NT-1 workover following CH-1, processing facilities being installed, integration into the pipeline system, and progression toward gas production and revenue generation.

That is not the language of hesitation. That is the language of execution.

What also seems to be getting conveniently ignored is the political reality now unfolding in plain sight.

The Tanzanian Government is not passively observing this project anymore. The Ministry of Energy is publicly meeting with ARA leadership to discuss accelerating drilling and production. Officials are openly pushing for pipeline completion and first gas around September 2026. This has clearly become a nationally strategic project.

So the suggestion that ARA might intentionally stall connection to the pipeline at the very moment the Government is demanding delivery is not “commercial realism.” It would be strategic suicide.

Why would ARA risk fracturing its relationship with the Tanzanian Government after spending years building trust, securing licences, advancing development plans and positioning itself at the centre of one of Tanzania’s most important domestic gas projects?

To achieve what exactly?

A stranded gas field generates no revenues. A producing gas field does. That is the entire point of the development.

The irony here is that every single month makes the “ARA might walk away” theory weaker, not stronger, because more infrastructure, more political momentum, more capital and more operational planning continue to be committed to the project.

At some point people need to stop pretending Ntorya is still a theoretical concept sitting in a presentation slide. It is transitioning into a live development project. And that reality is becoming harder and harder for the doom narratives to explain away.

BP - This line of argument gets more detached from reality with every passing week.

It is foolish to be seriously suggesting that ARA might spend years acquiring the asset, funding seismic, proving up a multi-TCF discovery, advancing development plans, preparing drilling campaigns, integrating with a state-backed export pipeline, and coordinating directly with the Ministry of Energy… only to suddenly walk away right before monetisation.

It honestly makes no commercial sense whatsoever. And the more operational progress accelerates, the more absurd the theory becomes.

Pipeline construction is already underway. Materials are in-country. Tenders have been evaluated. The latest Annual Report explicitly references CH-1 drilling and completion remaining “on schedule,” NT-1 workover following CH-1, processing facilities being installed, integration into the pipeline system, and progression toward gas production and revenue generation.

That is not the language of hesitation. That is the language of execution.

What also seems to be getting conveniently ignored is the political reality now unfolding in plain sight.

The Tanzanian Government is not passively observing this project anymore. The Ministry of Energy is publicly meeting with ARA leadership to discuss accelerating drilling and production. Officials are openly pushing for pipeline completion and first gas around September 2026. This has clearly become a nationally strategic project.

So the suggestion that ARA might intentionally stall connection to the pipeline at the very moment the Government is demanding delivery is not “commercial realism.” It would be strategic suicide.

Why would ARA risk fracturing its relationship with the Tanzanian Government after spending years building trust, securing licences, advancing development plans and positioning itself at the centre of one of Tanzania’s most important domestic gas projects?

To achieve what exactly?

A stranded gas field generates no revenues. A producing gas field does. That is the entire point of the development.

The irony here is that every single month makes the “ARA might walk away” theory weaker, not stronger, because more infrastructure, more political momentum, more capital and more operational planning continue to be committed to the project.

At some point people need to stop pretending Ntorya is still a theoretical concept sitting in a presentation slide. It is transitioning into a live development project. And that reality is becoming harder and harder for the doom narratives to explain away.

Suggesting ARA might be nowhere to be found when it comes time to hook up Ntorya to the gas pipeline is such flawed logic. This argument completely ignores the reality now unfolding on the ground in Tanzania.

ARA has already spent years and millions of dollars advancing Ntorya. They funded the carry, completed the 3D seismic campaign, defined multi-TCF potential, advanced CH-1 toward drilling, evaluated tenders, moved materials into country, progressed civil works and moved the project toward integrated production infrastructure.

Now look at what is happening in real time. Pipeline construction is underway. The Minister of Energy publicly demanding first gas by September with no delays, the Tanzanian Ministry of Energy publicly meeting with ARA leadership to discuss accelerating drilling and production. The latest updates reference preparations for “new wells,” - plural, and clearly full field development- not retreat.

https://www.nishati.go.tz/news/katibu-mkuu-mataragio-akutana-na-uongozi-ara-petroleum-kujadili-miradi-ya-gesi

The Annual Report explicitly discusses progression toward “gas production and revenue generation.”

So the idea that ARA would suddenly disappear or down tools after spending years de-risking the ,right before monetisation, makes absolutely no commercial or rational sense.

That would be like building a power station, connecting it to the grid, then refusing to switch it on.

The entire value unlock comes from transforming stranded gas into producing, revenue-generating gas. That is precisely the phase Ntorya is now approaching.

And let’s not forget something very important: the pipeline being Government-funded is not a weakness of the project, it is one of its greatest strengths. It dramatically reduces development risk and capital burden for ARA and Aminex.

Most importantly, the actual behaviour of the parties involved tells the real story. We are seeing increasing Government engagement, accelerating operational activity, drilling preparation, infrastructure integration and clear long-term development planning toward expanded production.

That is not what a collapsing or fragile partnership looks like. The conversation is no longer: “Will Ntorya be developed?”

The conversation is becoming: “How large can this development ultimately become?”

The answer? ENORMOUS!

Why hasn’t the share price moved materially yet, and why could that change later this year? Because markets do not usually pay full value for plans. They pay for de-risked delivery.

Right now, despite a truly excellent update, some investors still view Aminex through the lens of its past: delays, funding concerns, waiting for approvals, waiting for infrastructure, waiting for drilling.

The latest RNS materially changed that picture, but many only rerate once milestones become undeniable.

What has changed already:

• Pipeline construction underway

• 85% route clearing completed

• ~50% welding completed

• Completion / commissioning targeted for Sept 2026

• CH-1 drilling and completion remains on schedule and must spud by around August to fit all 2026 planned works in

• Rig tender process completed

• Contracting process described as imminent

• NT-1 workover to follow CH-1

• Debt free

• Carry funding still in place

• First gas / revenue pathway explicitly outlined

So why no major move yet? Because the market is still waiting for the next hard confirmations:

1. Rig contract award

2. Rig mobilisation

3. CH-1 spud

4. Drilling progress updates

5. First gas / revenue commencement

That is how small-cap development stories often behave: flat while doubted, then rerated quickly as uncertainty disappears.

FWIW.. My view on likely share price phases:

Current phase (2.2p–2.5p): pricing historic skepticism and waiting for proof.

Rig contract / mobilisation phase: a move into 3p+ would be understandable as CH-1 becomes tangible.

Spud phase: if the rig is on site and CH-1 begins, 4p–6p would not look unreasonable as momentum and anticipation build.

Successful CH-1 / first gas pathway: the market could start assessing Aminex as a producer rather than a perpetual developer, where 10p+ becomes possible depending on results and delivery.

Longer term with sustained execution: if production ramps and the wider Ntorya scale is recognised, significantly higher valuations are possible.

That distinction matters. A company valued as “jam tomorrow” can be worth very differently once it becomes a funded producer with visible revenues.

The market today may still be pricing old Aminex. The rest of 2026 could increasingly price new Aminex.

But, as always, DYOR.

You’re conflating unrelated situations.

A mature legacy asset with historic payment/licence disputes is not the same as a high growth development project with active capex, pipeline construction underway, full government support and a stated 2026 execution schedule.

Current published Aminex facts include:

• CH-1 anticipated in 2H 2026 (2026 works programme suggests early 2H spud)

• Rig contracts anticipated in Q2 2026

• Pipeline targeted for completion/commissioning by Sept 2026

• NT-2 expected available after pipeline completion

• Company debt free

• Remaining carry funding in place

That doesn’t remove jurisdiction risk, but it does mean project-specific reality matters more than generic fear narratives.

If you want to critique Ntorya, critique the actual milestones and delivery schedule; not somebody else’s legacy asset. That’s just lazy trolling.

What an outstanding Annual Report update. The market is still asleep. Let’s deal in FACTS:

• CH-1 explicitly anticipated to be drilled in 2H 2026

• CH-1 drilling and completion remains ON SCHEDULE for 2026

• NT-1 workover to follow CH-1 drilling

• Pipeline completion / commissioning targeted September 2026

• 85% route clearing complete

• ~50% pipeline welding already complete

• Trenching resumes in May after rainy season

• Processing facilities for NT-2 / CH-1 / NT-1 agreed in principle

• ~90% of drilling-related tenders issued, with evaluations / awards advancing

• $28.42m carry still remaining

• Company debt free

Now think logically about the 2026 work programme.

They are guiding for:

1. Pipeline commissioned in 2026

2. CH-1 drilled and completed in 2026

3. NT-1 workover AFTER CH-1

4. Processing facilities / flowlines installed

5. Progression to gas production / revenue generation

That means CH-1 cannot be some distant event pushed endlessly into the future.

If NT-1 follows CH-1 and both sit inside the active 2026 programme, then CH-1 needs to happen with enough runway left in the year.

Market implication:

• Rig contract / mobilisation likely next major catalyst

• CH-1 spud increasingly looks like a realistic July–August window

• Any major delay would make the published sequencing harder to achieve

Now the bigger picture:

Phase 1 targets 60 MMCFD initial production.

Then:

• 3 additional wells to ramp to 140 MMCFD

• Further development to 280 MMCFD plateau production

• Potential 20+ year production profile

Chairman language says it all:

“We have turned the corner.”

“Financial stability has been secured.”

“The pathway to production is clear.”

“A new chapter.”

This is no longer a stranded explorer story. This is a funded, infrastructure-backed, near-term producer with CH-1 as the catalyst and first gas as the rerate trigger.

DYOR, but the disconnect between valuation and reality is becoming extreme.

News to look forward to this week, and although an Annual Report is backwards looking in nature, I’m sure we will get an operational update to go with it.. GLA

What a fantastic backdrop for our operations Ufufuo… Tanzania is turning into a powerhouse!! Thank you for sharing :-)

The lazy “Orca sold for $10 so Tanzanian gas is worthless” narrative is complete nonsense.

Orca’s transaction was a risk-transfer exit from a mature asset carrying licence-renewal uncertainty, disputes, arbitration exposure, legacy commercial issues and future obligations. The nominal headline number was not a clean valuation of reserves in the ground.

Now compare that with Ntorya. Ntorya is not some tired late-life asset. It is a high-impact undeveloped growth project with substantial discovered gas, multiple well catalysts, expanding domestic demand, strategic government importance, and a route to monetisation through infrastructure already being progressed.

That is where real value sits. Gas in the ground with a development pathway can be worth multiples of current market caps once de-risked. Add successful CH-1 drilling, reserves upgrades, production ramp, additional wells and long-life cash flows, and valuations can move dramatically.

People obsessing over a distressed / strategic exit elsewhere are comparing apples with bricks.

If Ntorya is fully proven up and commercialised over time, the value creation potential is not “$10 headline sale” territory; it is hundreds of millions to potentially billions of dollars of gross project value, depending on reserves booked, recovery factors, pricing, infrastructure rollout and field development scale.

That is why the upcoming drilling matters so much.

The market today is pricing uncertainty. It is not pricing full-field success.

Big difference.

Guys, there was a total of ONE post here yesterday by a troll! The Aminex Investor Group saw over FIFTY posts, with new articles, satellite images and intelligent content.. If any serious investor is still using this board they honestly need their head checked. Download Telegram, search Aminex Investor Group and join the community now !

Crust, I think this is where we’re looking at the same thing from two different angles.

You’re asking what ARA are actually doing on the ground, but we’ve already been shown that over the past few weeks. There have been multiple updates showing survey teams out in the field, topographical work underway, routes being mapped for flowlines, even drone-assisted planning. And we’ve seen physical evidence that civil works are well underway for CH1 with the drill site and access road cleared. That’s not historic, that’s current activity.

And it’s not random either. That kind of work only happens once a project has moved into development mode. You don’t start mapping flowlines and planning routes unless you’re preparing to connect producing wells into a system.

Then you’ve got the logistics side of it, which is even more telling. We know that thousands of tonnes of equipment and heavy machinery are scheduled to arrive into Mtwara port from August. That’s not exploration activity and it’s not “waiting around”; that’s preparation for large-scale field development.

So when you say “not a lot,” I think that only really holds if you’re looking for progress purely in the form of an RNS.

Most of what’s happening right now is operational. It’s the groundwork that sits between drilling and production, getting everything aligned so that when the rig arrives, it’s not the start of the process, it’s the next step in something that’s already well underway.

The rig is the missing piece in terms of formal confirmation, I agree with that. But the idea that nothing is happening until that lands doesn’t really stack up with what we can already see on the ground.

Feels more like we’re in the final stage of lining everything up rather than waiting for something to begin.

Let’s deal in some facts:

• A formal ground-breaking ceremony has taken place for the pipeline, led by the Minister of Energy.

• Physical works have begun and are motoring along; trenches, equipment, and mobilisation confirmed.

• CH-1 site and access roads have already been cleared (not speculation, observable).

• ARA continues to issue tenders for field services, logistics, and infrastructure.

• The Tanzanian government has publicly stated timelines for production and project completion.

That is not “nothing happening whatsoever.”

On the rig specifically, yes, it has taken time. But the context matters:

This isn’t a standalone contract in isolation. It’s tied to an active drilling campaign, international contractors, and now (very likely) coordination between two operators sharing the same rig.

That kind of alignment takes time… but when it lands, it resolves multiple moving parts at once.

And that’s the key point. You’re looking backwards at delays. You need to look forward at what those delays were building towards.

Because once the rig is confirmed, mobilisation is scheduled, and drilling begins into a thicker, better-understood part of the reservoir and stacked upside potential…then the narrative flips very quickly.

We’re not waiting for whether this happens anymore.

We’re waiting for when it’s announced. And those are very different positions to be in.

There’s a tendency to equate “no RNS” with “no progress.” In reality, the opposite is often true.

Right now, we are in the phase where the most important work happens before it is formally announced:

• Contracts being finalised

• Logistics being aligned

• Contractors mobilising

• Field infrastructure being prepared

None of that comes with daily updates. It culminates in a single line:

“The Company is pleased to announce…”

And by the time that lands, the groundwork is already done. Let’s take a step back and look at what we do know:

• The pipeline is no longer theoretical, construction has visibly begun and is happening at pace !

• CH-1 site preparation and access are complete

• Field service tenders are live

• Government messaging is consistent: production is the objective, and delays will not be tolerated

• On-the-ground commentary continues to point toward alignment between drilling and pipeline timelines

That is not stagnation. That is coordination. And coordination is what precedes execution.

Markets don’t reward noise, they reward delivery. So while some are waiting for headlines, others are watching the pieces fall into place.

Because when operations, infrastructure, and funding all align at the same time, the re-rate doesn’t ask for permission. It just happens. It’s only a matter of time before the rig contract and CH1 spud window news drops, and then we are off !!

There are moments when the narrative around a company quietly changes… not through hype, but through a steady accumulation of facts that become impossible to ignore.

For Aminex and the Ntorya project, that moment may well be right now!

First, the infrastructure question, the one critics relied on for years, has been answered in the most tangible way possible.

The Ntorya–Madimba pipeline project has formally begun.

A public ceremony was held with the Minister of Energy laying the foundation stone, and photographs have since emerged showing pipes being fabricated, trenches dug and construction underway. For a project some claimed would never happen, the reality on the ground now tells a very different story.

The pipeline is being built and will be completed this summer!

Second, preparations for the next drilling phase are already visible. Civil works for the Chikumbi-1 well site began in January, with the pad and access infrastructure being prepared months in advance. Operators do not normally begin site construction this early unless drilling is expected to follow.

In other words, the groundwork for CH-1 has already begun.

At the same time, further signals are emerging that planning may already be progressing beyond early preparation of the initial phase. Shipping schedules of thousands of tonnes of heavy machinery are expected to arrive at port in August, logistics that would be consistent with significant field activity. This aligns with the multiple operational roles recently advertised by ARA, linked to the development of Ntorya.

Then there is the rig.

Recently, the market assumed the rig currently operating in Tanzania with M&P would remain tied up for most of 2026. Yet recent respected in country commentary suggests there may already be an agreement for that rig to mobilise directly to Ntorya once the current programme concludes or pauses in mid-2026.

If confirmed, that would remove the single largest operational uncertainty the market continues to focus on.

And when the market becomes confident that Chikumbi-1 is imminent, sentiment can change quickly.

We have seen this before. During the NT-2 drilling campaign, trading volumes surged dramatically as capital positioned.

Ntorya already contains multiple trillion cubic feet of gas in place, yet Aminex continues to trade as though the project remains theoretical.

That disconnect may not persist for long.

Over the coming months the path ahead is becoming clearer:

Pipeline construction progressing

Ntorya-2 production testing

Rig confirmation

The drilling of Chikumbi-1

Ntorya-1 rehabilitation

For long-term shareholders who have followed this story patiently, the current phase is truly remarkable to witness.

Infrastructure is being built.

Government support is evident.

Operational pieces are aligning.

The story is no longer theoretical. The pieces are falling into place. This is the tipping point!

Great find Ufufuo

But the truly interesting part is the second half of the statement.

The article explicitly refers to “overall project completion” in December. That wording strongly implies completion of the entire initial development package, not just the pipeline. And as Aminex and ARA have already communicated, and approved in the official works budget by the govt, that initial phase includes three wells in sequence, NT-2 production, CH-1 drilling, and the NT-1 workover once the rig moves.

When you work that timeline backwards, the implication becomes quite striking.

To reach overall completion by December, the rig cannot simply arrive late in the year. CH-1 must be drilled first, then the rig relocated and the NT-1 workover carried out afterwards. Allowing time for drilling, rig move, workover operations and final commissioning, that schedule logically points to a summer drilling window in order for the programme to close out before year end.

In other words, the minister’s statement doesn’t just confirm first gas timing; it quietly reveals the cadence of the entire current works programme.

This Friday was not noise. It was alignment.

On February 27th, 2026, Energy Minister Deogratius Ndejembi stood on site at Ntorya, laid the foundation stone for the Ntorya–Madimba pipeline, and made something very clear:

“By September 2026, the Ntorya wells should be producing gas. There should be no more stories.”

That is not a vague political soundbite. That is a public target. On record. On site. With the contractor present.

Let’s break down what was actually confirmed:

• The Ntorya–Madimba pipeline is 35% complete.

• Contract value: US $46.8 million.

• Signed July 3rd, 2025 between TPDC and China Petroleum Pipeline Engineering Co. Ltd / China Petroleum Technology & Development Corporation.

• Completion deadline: September 30, 2026.

• Government oversight: Direct ministerial supervision and instruction to TPDC to remain permanently on site.

This is no longer theoretical. Steel is in the ground. Civil works are active. Heavy equipment is operating.

The Minister did not merely congratulate TPDC. He directed them to accelerate drilling and ensure wells are producing by September.

He also explicitly called for acceleration of new well development.

Read that again.

Acceleration. Not delay.

The Permanent Secretary confirmed Ntorya becomes Tanzania’s third producing gas block, alongside Songo Songo and Mnazi Bay… expanding national production capacity.

At the same time, Tanzania’s stated national target is 8,000 MW by 2030, almost double current electricity generation.

Gas is the backbone of that expansion. Demand is increasing daily. Industrial investors are applying for gas supply. Infrastructure already exists.

And now the gas transport link is 35% complete. Let’s zoom out.

You have:

– A soon to be producing discovery (NT-1 / NT-2).

– A fully funded pipeline under construction.

– Chinese EPC contractors on a fixed contract.

– Ministerial pressure to deliver on time.

– Public September production target.

– National energy strategy tied directly to Ntorya output.

– Explicit instruction to accelerate well drilling.

This is not exploration risk without infrastructure. This is infrastructure + political capital + national energy dependency converging on one asset.

The phrase that matters most:

“By September there should be no other incidents.”

When a Minister ties his credibility to a production date, that date becomes a priority. And when wells must be producing by September, drilling cannot be an afterthought.

Gas does not inaugurate itself. Progress is not sentiment. Progress is steel, contracts, timelines and public accountability.

Ntorya is no longer a story about “if.”

It is a story about “execution.”

And execution is now fully visible.

Happy weekend all shareholders :-)

I’m not sure if we’re able to post a link here. But we are now searchable on Telegram.. so just search “Aminex” and it should take you straight there…

Https://www.nishati.go.tz/uploads/documents/en-1771770371-siku%20100%20za%20Mhe.%20rais%20SAMIA.pdf

A excellent find from Ufufuo on the Aminex Telegram group this week!

This week, the Ministry of Energy published its official 100-day progress report. Buried within it was a single line that changes the tone of this entire story:

“The Government has completed preparations to drill four new natural gas wells… including in the Ntorya area, Ruvuma Block.”

Read that again carefully. Completed. Preparations. Drill. Ntorya.

This is not forum speculation. This is not interpretation. This is a formal government document confirming that drilling in Ntorya is operationally ready from the state side.

For Aminex shareholders, that matters enormously. Ntorya is not a theoretical asset sitting on a map. It is now embedded in Tanzania’s national energy execution plan. The pipeline is advancing. Civil works for CH-1 began in January. Surveys have been completed. The rig tender shortlist has been finalised. And now the Ministry itself confirms drilling preparations are complete.

This is what execution phase looks like. When governments move from “planning” language to “completed preparations” language, the window narrows. Projects at this stage do not drift for years. They move to the final commercial and contractual steps.

CH-1 is the only publicly scheduled well in Ntorya. It sits at the centre of the Ruvuma development. It underpins pipeline monetisation. It supports Tanzania’s power expansion targets. It feeds directly into domestic gas supply security.

The strategic alignment could not be clearer. The only missing piece is the formal rig contract announcement. Everything else is now visibly in motion.

We have moved beyond the question of whether Ntorya will be developed. The focus is now firmly on when the drill bit turns.

Execution is underway. The government has said so. The ground works are visible. The infrastructure is advancing. The macro backdrop is strengthening.

From high-risk explorer to nationally aligned gas development, the transformation is real.

Not much too get excited about Crusty… ? we’ve got a pipeline route nearly completely cleared, fabricated pipe on site and ready to lay, first gas income is just wound the corner! The project is in full swing, the drilling of CH1 is going to be huge but it’s not the be all and end all…

Just think where we will be after rig contract news, first gas, spudding CH1, CH1 results, re entering NT1…. So much news to come and sooooooooo much further for the share price to run! 10p+ by end of year here we come IMO

The Orca commentary being quoted actually reinforces the strategic importance of Ntorya rather than undermining it.

Orca’s update highlights uncertainty around licence extensions and commercial disputes at Songo Songo.. a mature offshore asset that has been supplying Tanzania for years. When a legacy producing field faces regulatory and commercial friction, the obvious response from government is to prioritise alternative domestic supply sources that are scalable, politically aligned and under active development.

That is precisely where Ntorya sits.

Ntorya is onshore, lower cost, infrastructure-linked and already physically advancing. Civil works are underway. Right-of-way clearing is progressing. Line pipe is at site. Surveying and engineering contracts have been awarded. Drilling procurement is in motion. TPDC engagement has been visible and consistent.

If there is any instability or tension around existing supply frameworks, it only increases the urgency to diversify and secure additional domestic gas streams. Tanzania’s power demand continues to grow. Industrial demand continues to grow. Energy security matters.

Ntorya is not negotiating the past. It is building vast future capacity.

If anything, this environment strengthens the case for accelerating development and getting CH-1 drilled, tied in and flowing.

Sometimes what looks like noise elsewhere is actually confirmation of why new supply is needed.