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£3.80- £4 bid perhaps?

Laidback - agreed. Plus all those assets aren’t effected by war, so even more tempting for a takeover bid

Sitting duck - thought the same at first. Markets predicting a quick off ramp with oil falling back to around $90 boe by early August (IMO unlikely at this stage). IMO It’s a mkt gamble at the moment whether it will or won’t, but if supply constraint keeps up, it’ll eventually have to shift nearer to the spot price or there’ll be huge losses coming fwd.

War duration is key, but US moving more assets to the region, estimated by end of April for air craft carrier - show of strength or prepping for next round? Iran will undoubtedly be reinforcing positions, securing bombed silos to get ready for any further action . Delayed negotiations keeping kicking the can. DJT doesn’t appear he would accept a world with Iran maintaining its nuclear program. The US midterms and DJT’s rating could be the thing to get him to change tact, declare a win and walk away, but the fallout will take months if not years to fix

Just some thoughts on the share price.

Positive rerating possibilities via,

- positive outlook from May update (next set of results should be great), further info on hedging / fwd sales would be good to work out some more detailed % growth in FCF. Spot prices look immense at the moment so FCF should help pay down debt/ share buybacks and/ or maybe a special dividend

- sustained oil price above $90 Boe for the rest of 2026, IMO likely given no clear off-ramp to open the Straight, plus time taken to shift existing cargo’s, drop off, travel, refill reserves, plus restart/ repair damaged wells….)

- potential (looks good so far), for upgrade to the FTSE 100 in June, HBR is now a clear contender. Will see funds have to buy in, if not already happening…

Risks

- further bulk sales from major owners, lock in period finishes early June (linked to above, if going to the ftse 100, HBR won’t be added to mid June, so it’ll be an interesting time to see if further disposals happen when the lock out period expires)

- early end to the war (can’t see that happening yet, and looks like a bit of can kicking on next set of negotiations/ cease fire extension etc…). Few more weeks and the oil price may start to converge with spot price (which could impact global demand)

Long thoughts

- opening of North Sea unlikely in short term, but further exploration licences off Norway should help, plus now a global exploration/ producer

- Would love to see the EPL drop alongside North Sea opening, but think that’s unlikely unless Ed M gets the push, or change in govt…

- could be a takeover target especially with other major producers generating large profits off current oil price

DYOR but interested to hear any thoughts 👍🏻

@laidback I like your optimism. Think we would need to see the North Sea open and /or the EPL to get that high a rerate.

If North sea oil is being traded at $147 role on interim update!

Another interesting article below. Shame the North Sea isn’t being tapped to its full potential. We can but hope for a change in govt stance

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/North-Sea-Crude-Soars-to-Record-High-as-Hormuz-Shock-Rips-Through-Spot-Markets.html

Any thoughts on the promotion prospects to the FTSE 100? My take at the moment is it’ll be well on the cards mid year if oil prices remain elevated and share price holds up. Good dividend yield could see buyers from dividend hunters as well as the promotion balance shifting to see more int investors come on board. Doesn’t seem like that is yet baked into the price but surely must be on the cards the next few months?

Good day today, ex dividend and a rise. JP Caz also upping rating to £3.18, and noticed on another LSE news items, Barclays has a rating at £4 from a couple of weeks back (but not flagged in the broker section on the website)

@retec - Agreed. another bit of info coming out… can’t see the ceasefire holding myself

…

During the two-week 'ceasefire,' only about 10 to 15 ships will be permitted to pass through the Strait of Hormuz with Iran's approval, in coordination with the IRGC Navy and after payment of tolls, and the United States is committed to releasing all of Iran's frozen assets. The Strait of Hormuz will by no means be 'open' in its previous form, even after a final agreement. In addition, the United States has committed to refraining from any troop movements during this period. During this time, negotiations will be held based on Iran's 10-point plan, details of which are referenced in the statement of the Supreme National Security Council. In the event of no agreement, the war will resume

I’d say let’s see how many tankers start crossing the straight the next week. Negotiations aren’t due to start till Friday so weekend tanker movements worth a watch.

Israel very quiet and doesn’t seem to have agreed to demands so US negotiations maybe stall, if they continue to bomb. Interesting times!

Apparently this is the basis for Iran’s demands for negotiations starting Friday (which the US is considering). If true - I’d be surprised if the ceasefire will hold and it’s more a Trump TACO to delay a more wide spread conflict. DYOR etc…

….

The text of Iran's 10-point conditions that Trump has accepted in his tweet as the 'basis for negotiations' is as follows:

1- Complete cessation of any aggression against Iran and allied resistance groups

2- Withdrawal of U.S. combat forces from the region, prohibition of any attacks from bases on Iran, and refraining from adopting a combat posture

3- Limited daily passage of ships through the Strait of Hormuz for two weeks, under the title of a safe passage protocol under the supervision and specific rules of this country

4- Cancellation of all primary sanctions, secondary sanctions, and UN sanctions

5- Compensation for Iran's damages through the creation of an investment and financial fund

6- Iran's commitment to not building nuclear weapons

7- Acceptance by the United States of Iran's right to enrichment and negotiation on the level of enrichment

8- Iran's agreement to negotiate bilateral and multilateral peace treaties with regional countries in its own interests

9- Extension of non-aggression to all resistance groups

10- Termination of all resolutions of the IAEA Board of Governors and the UN Security Council, and approval of all commitments in an official UN resolution

Added a few this am. Oil back up around $95. It’s a two week cease fire and ships not yet moving. Time will tell. Shame none of the brokers are putting out a share forecast update. Shame no trading statement from HBR but if it holds could be back in the ftse 100 which would give more support for a lift back up

One for the longer term, but can’t see dividend being sustained at this rate. Barley covered at the moment

Agreed. Israel just started hitting rail infrastructure. Iran now targeting oil fields. Dread to think where this will end up

Seems like they have just started bombing Kharg island. Potentially good for the share price but bad for the wider stock market

https://metro.co.uk/2026/04/07/several-large-explosions-heard-kharg-island-hours-trump-deadline-27883811/amp/

Yes. Link via

https://www.harbourenergy.com/news-and-media/harbour-receives-nine-exploration-licences-in-norway/

North Sea opening would be good, but they are already seeking new wells off Norway (same field essentially), so hoping they get those underway asap

For anyone who held over the BHoliday, Tuesday’s opening looks like this could see good support for the share price

IMO: They could threaten it but I doubt it would happen. Too many US ties in the region. More likely go the other way, and Gulf nations join in the war if it keeps up. France tanker going through the Staight this am shows there is a divergence between EU and local regions. Oil supply more of a concern for nations without sufficient capacity to fill the black hole