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EdM deleted his tweet yesterday. If they joke a more and tax rate goes near 100%, it’ll shut down the North sea

Brent flying, over $115. How long before $120 barrel?

It’ll take time for UAE to ramp up as well; and even then, it won’t want to crash the market. New pipeline through Oman could be an option but that’ll take years to build, cost a fortune and likely see Oman ask for some form of surcharge. SoH opening is the key, but even if it opens tomorrow, will take 12 months + to sort out disruption

Sold out a few months back. Dividend coverage abysmal based on the latest results. Can’t see it staying a current level without a big market swing

Think we could do a lot better than BP as their debt level inc by $6 billion (working capital). Hopefully HBR should be clearing a substantial amount of debt if estimated FCF plays out.

Big jump in BP profits. Estimated $2.63, delivered $3.2! And Brent near $110 again this am! 7th May, here we come

Updated to 500k

Based on your updated production guidance of ~500k boepd, here is the revised valuation overview for Harbour Energy (HBR).

1. Updated Harbour Energy (HBR) Valuation Overview

Shares in Issue: 2.0 billion

Net Debt: US$7.2 billion

EBITDA Estimate (2026): ~US$6.3 billion

Production Guidance: ~500k boepd

2. Updated Valuation Scenarios

Scenario A: Using the EV/EBITDA Multiple (6.8x)

This scenario remains consistent with your previous calculation, as the EBITDA estimate provided was already US$6.3bn.

Implied Enterprise Value: 6.8 × US$6.3bn = US$42.84 billion

Implied Equity Value: US$42.84bn - US$7.2bn (Debt) = US$35.64 billion

Implied Share Price (USD): US$35.64bn ÷ 2.0bn shares = US$17.82

Equivalent in GBP: ~1,426p (at GBP/USD ~1.25)

Scenario B: Using the EV/Production Multiple ($44.3k/boe)

This scenario is significantly impacted by the increase to 500k boepd.

Implied Enterprise Value: 500k boepd × US$44,324 = US$22.16 billion

Implied Equity Value: US$22.16bn - US$7.2bn (Debt) = US$14.96 billion

Implied Share Price (USD): US$14.96bn ÷ 2.0bn shares = US$7.48

Equivalent in GBP: ~598p (at GBP/USD ~1.25)

Based on upper 2billion share count for you.

1. Updated Harbour Energy (HBR) Valuation Overview

Shares in Issue: 2.0 billion

Net Debt: US$7.2 billion

EBITDA Estimate (2026): ~US$6.3 billion

Production Guidance: ~445k boepd

2. Valuation Scenarios

Scenario A: Using the EV/EBITDA Multiple (6.8x)

Implied Enterprise Value: 6.8 × US$6.3bn = US$42.84 billion

Implied Equity Value: US$42.84bn - US$7.2bn (Debt) = US$35.64 billion

Implied Share Price (USD): US$35.64bn ÷ 2.0bn shares = US$17.82

Equivalent in GBP: ~1,426p (at GBP/USD ~1.25)

Scenario B: Using the EV/Production Multiple ($44.3k/boe)

Implied Enterprise Value: 445k boepd × US$44,324 = US$19.72 billion

Implied Equity Value: US$19.72bn - US$7.2bn (Debt) = US$12.52 billion

Implied Share Price (USD): US$12.52bn ÷ 2.0bn shares = US$6.26

Equivalent in GBP: ~501p (at GBP/USD ~1.25

Arc has more longer term prospects from fields (and suggest the EPL would reduce interest in HBR)

Shares in issue over 1.57 billion. True not an exact number used in calc (as this was more for reference hence the apx). $1 billion reduction in debt hasn’t been included as that’s a forecast based on SoH staying closed and oil prices remaining higher for longer

@laidback here is an AI calc for you to ponder 😮

…

1. Acquisition Multiples from ARC Sale

Shell acquired ARC Resources for an enterprise value (EV) of approximately US$16.4 billion.

EV/EBITDA Multiple: ~6.8x (based on ARC's trailing EBITDA of ~US$2.4bn).

EV/Production Multiple: ~US$44,324 per boepd (based on 370k boepd).

2. Recalculated Harbour Energy (HBR) Valuation

Using the updated share count and current financial estimates for 2026:

Shares in Issue: 1.58 billion (approx.)

Net Debt: US$7.2 billion (post-LLOG acquisition)

EBITDA Estimate (2026): ~US$6.3 billion (LTM/Pro-forma)

Scenario A: Using the EV/EBITDA Multiple (6.8x)

If HBR were valued at the same 6.8x multiple as the ARC deal:

Implied Enterprise Value: 6.8 × US$6.3bn = US$42.84 billion

Implied Equity Value: US$42.84bn (EV) - US$7.2bn (Debt) = US$35.64 billion

Implied Share Price: US$35.64bn ÷ 1.58bn shares = US$22.56

Equivalent in GBP: ~1,805p (assuming GBP/USD ~1.25)

Scenario B: Using the EV/Production Multiple ($44.3k/boe)

HBR production is guided at approximately 435–455 kboepd for 2026.

Implied Enterprise Value: 445k boepd × US$44,324 = US$19.72 billion

Implied Equity Value: US$19.72bn (EV) - US$7.2bn (Debt) = US$12.52 billion

Implied Share Price: US$12.52bn ÷ 1.58bn shares = US$7.92

Equivalent in GBP: ~634p

Quick look at Arc. From search, shares in issue 5.77million, debt level $2.8 billion US, $16.4 billion acq by Shell

BP results this week (28th). Should be a good gauge for our pending update. Topped up this am

Don’t think US ramp up will be that quick. Gas producers have already said they won’t ramp up new assets to inc production as long term price too unstable. Max out existing sites yes - but those still have a practical limit without considerable investment.

That’s right Stumpy. I ran the AI a few times to get the most up to date figures. Assuming $4 inc on mscf, even if price holds for 4 or so months, that’s a $150million there

Some further info but this time on gas mscf… AI again but worth noting, mscf price is up at $17.67

AI response…

Based on Harbour Energy's January 2026 trading update and 2025 full-year results, the company is using the following European gas price assumptions for their 2026/2027 outlook:

2026 Gas Price Assumption: $11/mscf

2027+ Gas Price Assumption: $10/mscf (escalated at 2.5% per annum thereafter)

Key Notes on Gas Price Assumptions:

2025 Baseline: The 2025 full-year guidance was based on $13/mscf for European gas.

Realised Prices: In the first half of 2025, Harbour realised an average European gas price of $13/mscf.

Sensitivity: A $1/mscf change in European gas prices for the full year impacts Harbour's 2026 free cash flow by approximately $150 million.

Hedging: Harbour has hedged roughly 50% of its economic exposure to European gas prices for 2026, securing prices above the current forward curve.

Note: Harbour Energy often uses mscf (thousand standard cubic feet) and mmbtu (million British thermal units) interchangeably in their disclosures, typically assuming a 1:1 conversion rate for their price assumptions

Had a play with AI to look at some est of oil at $100 bbl. It changes quite a bit depending on query, but threw out some interesting results

… AI response below

Based on Harbour Energy's (HBR) official 2026 guidance and sensitivity metrics, an oil price of $100/bbl would generate an estimated Free Cash Flow (FCF) of approximately $1.79 billion.

Calculation Breakdown

Harbour provides specific "sensitivity" figures to help investors estimate cash flow based on moving commodity prices. As of early 2026, the calculation is as follows:

Baseline FCF: $0.6 billion (Assumes $65/bbl Brent).

Sensitivity Metric: Every $5/bbl change in the Brent price impacts FCF by ~$170 million.

Price Delta: $100/bbl - $65/bbl = +$35/bbl increase.

FCF Addition: (35 ÷ 5) × $170 million = +$1.19 billion.

Estimated Total FCF: $0.6B (Baseline) + $1.19B (Addition) = $1.79 billion.

Key Factors Impacting this Estimate

Hedging: The estimate above assumes a "spot" impact. In reality, Harbour has 40% of its 2026 oil exposure hedged at $71/bbl. This means the company would not capture the full $100 price on nearly half its production, likely pulling the actual FCF closer to $1.4–$1.5 billion in practice.

Gas Price Correlation: Harbour's production is split roughly 60/40 between gas and oil. If oil hit $100, European gas prices would likely also be higher than the $11/mscf base assumption, further boosting FCF beyond the oil-only calculation.

Tax Surcharge: At $100/bbl, the Energy Profits Levy (EPL) surcharge remains fully active. Much of the additional revenue would be taxed at the 78% headline rate, which is already factored into the $170m sensitivity provided by the company.

Resulting Realistic Share Price

Using the $1.79 billion FCF estimate and applying a typical FTSE 8x–12x multiple (as calculated in our previous turn):

FCF per share: $1.79B ÷ 1.57B shares = $1.14 per share.

Implied Share Price: $9.12 to $13.68 (roughly 730p to 1,100p).

Given Harbour Energy's updated 2026 policy to return 45–75% of FCF to shareholders, an oil price of $100 could potentially trigger a total annual payout of $0.51 to $0.85 per share

Slight drop appears a regular thing over the weekend. Investors hedging over the weekend?

Have you accounted for tax/ EPL in the FCF estimates?

Laidback - I know it’s crazy. Hopefully by the next investor release, the stock will start getting more broker coverage which could help support a rerate