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Let look at the fundamentals, war still going, oil tanker hit today, Trump makes an off ramp announcements, but Straight still technically closed to most traffic.

For HBR even with a small drop in oil, still above $100 barrel (can’t see if going down quickly as it’ll take months to sort out logistics of getting existing tankers around the globe and back again).

Interestingly had a conversation with a small garage owner this week (who I know well); his supplier noted if flows don’t pick up soon, diesel rationing incoming in 3 weeks…. DYOR

But they are buying back at a cheap rate, so good for fundamentals

Expect the dividend to be good, but share price may be limited if further major shareholders keep selling after, restrictions on further disposals lift

Thanks Ducati. Hadn’t seen that, but still makes no sense, Trump walking away from the mess he has created won’t reopen the Straight, so oil still constrained, so still risk on surely?

Makes no sense anymore, limited good news, oil tanker hit and price of oil goes down?

Had a thought so googled Iraq war; circa 170-190k troops involved at start before inc towards 460k-500k troops. Trumps 7k force being amassed appears far too small for any major incursion even with the circa 50k assumed to be in the area already. I’d assume Iran would put up much more of a fight and with the terrain, a ground invasion would appear a huge error. Could try and take Kharg but then would China raise an issue? Just for show perhaps? Israel has called up reserves (400k estimate), but can’t see them committing to boots on the ground in Iran and appears more focused to Lebanon.

Don’t think Kharg island has been hit

It’s def a cyclical stock. UK interest rate rises will be bad for the share price and also material cost inflation. Seems fairly priced at the moment

Agreed. IMO the off-ramp for US/ Iran has a long way to go as well. Iran stating they haven’t started negotiations puts them in a bit of a bind (even if they have behind the scenes) as they can’t really back track without losing face, so only when official negotiations start and a cease fire, will the market (and share prices for oil producers), likely settle down. Also more bombing last few days.

Build up of US marines coming over also doesn’t set the right signal that an off-ramp will come fwd quickly.

Trump and his cronies also appear to be insider trading based on his social media posts - so tend not to take much notice of those anymore. Everyone knows it’s going on. Where’s the regulator 🤷🏼‍♂️?

As long as oil stays high, it should be great to get a big chunk of company debt paid off. Buybacks should also support share price.

DYOR etc…

All depends on prospective interest in buying the book. Can be a fixed price or a range, depending on how quick a sale they want

Should have said as well, larger the book, generally higher the discount if they want a fast sale…

In its simplest form, sale comes fwd, prospectus set, promote to institutional investors, sell the book… so yes a little phoning around unless there is already a party interested via an enquiry to purchase…

Agreed Strike. Trump has royally messed up to put it politely. There is no sign of a let up and with interceptors now being used up rapidly with Irans high volume (even though current levels are lower than the start), it’s becoming a war of attrition. No navy wants to become a prime target, imo the main reason the US hasn’t already provided escorts. Think his navy generals have told him impolitely where to go. Now calling on everyone else to support but after all his trade threats, derogatory comments on PMs across the world, support will be limited to defensive mission until such time oil supply becomes a global fall out.

Another 5000 troops and more war ships heading to the Middle East. Will be interesting week next week!

Wondering what everyone has a target price on this share moving fwd? Bought in earlier in the year so was looking around the 2.20-2.50 range. Start of war upped to £3 if oil price headed towards or exceeded $100. No sign now of tail off in war so thinking £3.50 if disruption continues but £4 not of the question now if markets turmoil keeps up, or oil goes up again. Can’t see an easy off ramp for the US so seems more price action incoming, though slower than the other majors. Any thoughts?

I think the use of the word “could” is misplaced. Seeing quotes for steel and construction material forecasts for mid year projects going up 20%. Buckle down the hatches over the next few months!

Off mkt sale was just a big discount to bulk unload share price. I’d expect an RNS to update who bought the stock in due course as a major shareholder. It would be hard to impossible to sell off such a volume without a discount, or prolonged sale practice. Most likely an institutional investor with a long term view

Apparently it wasn’t true - smells like mkt manipulation

I’m thinking today is the dead cat bounce. Trumps comments are incoherent and appear as though he has little idea of an exit plan now. Seems to me he thought Iran would capitulate, but after killing the new leaders wife, son and dad, I think his plan is out the window. Iran and US still bombing, more military assets moving to the region… hardly deescalation 🤷🏼‍♂️

I doubt Iran will back out as quickly mind, especially with the new leader in place