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Great post Sek. I think the market is starting to reassess oil futures, with some now estimating that if the SoH stays closed for another month, Brent prices could be between a range of $95-$115 by q4 of this year (though other estimates I’ve looked at are in the $80-$88 region). Either way, the FCF will have a considerable boost - I’m expecting between $1.5-$2billion, but if there is a drawn out conflict (and I think at this stage it could drags on quite a few more months), FCF could be clearly above $2billion. I think Iran has a plan to cause as much economic damage to the US/ West, and are probably more willing to go through some hardships to get the best negotiating position possible. DJT has royally messed up and even if he walks away, think Iran/ SoH could be problematic for a good while yet

Thanks for the update. Var energy from Norway reported them this week, so must be an element of truth behind wider market sales figures . If true, even better results incoming depending on hedge rate

Similar figures here Sek. Quick query on your analysis, does the $200 million cover the potential unhedged oil sales bounce from April where sales est Norway prices saw Brent being sold to mkt at $130 Boe?

Off X so not read the report yet, but VAR energy (based on Norway) announced today that their Brent sales were $130 for April 2026

Not saying that, just seems very unlikely. Inc US oil to mkt has an impact on prices, plus as noted, think traders are optimistic (too optimistic in my eyes), so full impact being played down. It can’t go on forever though, so a crunch point has to come at some point if the supply doesn’t come back online

Well they are upping the electric tariff/ tax from I think 45% to 55%. The most idiotic/ EdM decision ever, during a time of an energy shock. Dread to think who the next PM will be after the May election results …

Can’t see US printing dollars as that would be flagged by the treasury. Pumping more US oil could however be a play to keep lower price, plus the release of the state gov reserve (until it all goes pop when actually supply shortages hit). Also read a few articles noting that traders are positive that an off-ramp comes off, but it will be choppy the longer this goes on and contracts expire. A WTI contract to end today (I think around 2.30pm in US)

Laidback - agreed. At current value it’s easily within reach of any major.

WTI contracts expiry date tomorrow. Bit more volatility perhaps?

The only thing I can think of (from a war perspective) is, the US ceasefire has allowed Iran to clear out/ access blocked munitions stockpiles, which potentially gives more clear targets for the US to hit them again… to further reduce Iran’s capacity to strike assets in the region (then another round of negotiations). US military build up means it is certainly more capable.

Key question now for the share price is, will the ceasefire be extended or will DJT double down and hit them again? Could go either way. Strikes, up the share price goes, ceasefire, share price may drop/ remain stable, extension of ceasefire, likely a drop, agreement to end war conclusively, share price falls (and if that’s the case, let’s hope the interim update and potential re designation to FTSE100 can lift the share price). I’m thinking oil will remain elevated well into 3/4 of the year.

Longer this goes on, the more prolonged benefit from higher oil price sales with apx 300k Boe unhedged by my reckoning. Irans position seems to be playing the economic impact game, to garner influence from western economies to cease war. How long can it hold out? Will China prop them up if needed?

Read this am that Exxon and a few other oil companies are looking at major investment in areas outside the ME so buy out potential on the card imo. DYOR etc…

Things I’m looking out for this week. DYOR etc…

Monday - uplift price from close of Strait (can’t see much happening between now and then). Oil futures and spot price likely to rebound.

Tuesday - think this is the end of the 10 day ceasefire, so either extension (neutral for share price), bombing restarts, up she goes £3+, but doubt we will see recent highs unless they hit main infrastructure/ oil sites etc… Risky play hitting oil if recent news of regaining access to Iran’s missile stockpiles true

Israel ceasefire 10 days started 16th April ends 26th, so another thing to look at as if they recommence bombing v Lebanon. Iran could harden approach

Wealth inequality in the US has never been wider. US doing well is more focussed to HNW, not the general population. Dig into the figures and what’s under the surface isn’t all rosy.

No easy off-ramp. Iran supporting wider allies means any further action by Israel is an issue. DJT wants Irans uranium and wants to hold the blockade of Irans oil movements. I’d expect hardliners in Iran are getting more hardened in approach, as longer this draws out, the more damage to DJT/ US from int community as oil flow issues persist. Ceasefire benefits them to clear out any bomb damaged sites (potentially increasing access to munitions). China dynamic not yet in full play.

Problem is, the US killed a lot of top leaders, now theirs is probably a scrabble for power between politicians, hard liners and the IRGC. Military seems to be in control. Strait closed again? Hard to know what news to believe these days.

https://x.com/iranobserver0/status/2045417451513688327?s=46&t=faeNMQhbdNKsrP0bDsF_dQ

More news coming out. Iran say tolls to be paid. Can’t see shop owners/ insurers being risk off for a while

https://x.com/iranobserver0/status/2045160176341410027?s=46&t=faeNMQhbdNKsrP0bDsF_dQ

Dipped back in. Could be mad, but the ceasefire/ straight opening is only for duration of ceasefire (and think Iran ceding Uranium to DJTs demands looks iffy.. Iran blockade still in place by US navy. Role on May update haha

I’ve started ignoring the noise from DJT posts (off-ramp likely soon-ish, but “talk” now of a 6month negotiating period 🤷🏼‍♂️). Brent dropping but still a premium for spot price. Assuming 40% hedge rate at $71, that’s 300k Boepd still going at spot price per day… it’s been like that last 6 weeks so next update will be one to watch

Looking at the spot price of NSea oil dated Brent vs futures over the last 6 weeks, sales seem to have gone to max $147 Boe now trading near/ around $120 Boe so they’ll be printing cash at the moment with such an uplift (and based on comparison with prior year results est of around $70 ish boe). Just need some brokers to delve deeper in analysis

Good point on ME potential. Even better still, let’s have a bidding war! 😅

I think HBR would be fair game for any of the UK listed big players. Not so sure US firms would go through the hassle of buying a UK listed company

I’d guess BP at the moment