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Rolling the dice, I’m going for Brent to hit $100 a barrel next week, with a further 10% hike in the share price, then if Brent keeps going, aiming for mid £3.50/ £4 end of the month. DYOR

Think 30 days for the war to end is optimistic. Brent over a $100 a barrel by next week?

Jassk - I’d say they already lost confidence. May elections will highlight by how much

Having worked on a refinery (just) maintenance shutdown, it’ll easily take 4 weeks to restart production at closed sites, and even longer to repair damage sites with all the maintenance / safety checks. I can see this share going up as even if the war does stop, it’ll take a good few months to get existing tankers out, oil unloaded then travel time back to the Middle East to load up again….

US now saying India can buy Russian oil is a telling sign that the strait will be closed for some time yet (as India has low storage limit)

If the war drags on and inflation spikes, the BoE will be forced to raise interest rates which will have a big impact on the SP. Think a cut at the next meeting is looking slimmer by the day.

Bonker99 agreed. If you look at the media they seem to be playing down the Iran response, and it takes a bit of searching to find out what and where they are targeting, particular the tanker. Hardly made mainstream news?🤷🏼‍♂️

If further strikes come about, this share could have a fair way to go DYOR

A lot worse results than expected. Given an oil tanker has been hit near Kuwait, open not looking great

Gas and oil price will have an impact going forward, for example in the supply chain, more costs for farmers, production, fertilisers, oil, transport, plus all the logistics. If prolonged closure of the straight of Hormuz, it could have a short to medium term impact on the price. Thought the results today were a little disappointing but not surprising.

Agree in part ToD. Changing an index rate not as bad as complete cancellation of contract (at which point there’d be a court battle, or a complete mkt meltdown). Reform haven’t done as well in Wales during elections this week (and many thought they were a shoe in ). Long time till next election, plus potential for Labour to go even further left when Starmer likely goes after May Scottish and Senydd elections - so could prop up renewable mkt in the interim. Don’t think anyone wants to challenge yet as they have Starmer as fall guy, then new PM to start afresh (or as fresh as can be at the moment). In the interim mind, divi well covered so seems a god prospect for next few years

On elections, not necessarily. The pomp and bravado at the moment doesn’t look at the actual picture. Reform may well dislike renewables, but when it comes to the mkt, they’d destroy confidence in UK PLC if they tried to get out or break long term energy contracts. Same goes for the Greens - but chances of them taking power are slim IMO. When reality hits I’d expect any current bravado, will soon be reigned in

Rate cuts likely, but if unemployment keeps up, mkt for house sales will likely drag on. I’m waiting on the full Lloyds report out tomorrow to look at mortgage uptake and default rates. The annual bellwether report for the UK house sector

Great analysis of the stock. Thanks for sharing Rogue…

Only way they can address rising costs is cutting tax. Can’t see that happening. Regulatory changes could speed up the system, but with a weak housing market, not sure they would build out any quicker than they are now.

Agreed. Politically it seems an easy win, tax the banks or the man (or at least not as bad). Saw an article today which noted Reeves’s Blackhole now estimated at £92billion. Seems a stretch but wouldn’t be surprised. Money printing ahead?

I think the budget is holding it back. If middle gets squeezed more, the whole property system will grind to a halt. FTB won’t upsize, limiting low cost stock, middle won’t have enough cash to upsize, which buy virtue will lead to more pressure on the share price from reduced demand. Can’t see a way out of it at the moment. I’ll be back in after the budget settles for long term hold. Can’t see mge rates dropping far enough to stimiulate demand in short term either.

Isn’t high inflation good for Gov tax receipts? So keeping inflation higher for longer is working for them at the moment

I’ve been thinking the same for the last 6 months. Sky high valuations on a broken economy. Part of me thinks, are people and the mkt just putting money in as there is nowhere else to put the cash. How long can everyone propped up, America, France, Uk all looking shaky…🤷🏼‍♂️

May be while before house building gets on track (after the next election!)

https://thenegotiator.co.uk/news/land-new-homes/taylor-wimpey-delivers-another-big-blow-to-labours-housebuilding-plans/

Didn’t the stamp duty changes lead to a bounce in sales purchases at the start of the year. It’ll be interesting to see the next few quarter sales figures to see if FTB are back in the market, driving new home purchases. From what I can see in Wales the market is stagnant, and a lot of over priced property sitting on the mkt before being relisted after a few weeks off the mkt

Some good and interesting points. I think the Welsh/ Senydd election result will likely be Starmer’s downfall next May (as catastrophic loss of MS’s predicted for Labour), plus any impact from the budget. Dubious who would replace him though as potential candidates seem far more left thinking (which market wise could be even worse/ potential further tax rises). OBR miss today seeing Gov spending +£5.5billion is showing what a shower of …. Is coming