Member Info for Property1

Interesting video on PoO. Could this be a temporary drop? Maths seems to indicate it will be

https://youtu.be/9EXmPbR-8ik

Laidback agreed.

We may see a glut of oil if the war stops (can’t see that happening quickly), so the big question is, when will China start coming back to the market. A major buyer is effectively out for now (but likely buying Russian and Iranian oil). But when they come back to the main market, can’t see oil staying this low. Also the SPR needs to be refilled at some point so Brent oil between $70-80 barrel (I think) is a reasonable figure to work off for now.

A wild thought though; after the US midterms I can see DJT going for bust if Iran drag out negotiations. He can’t stand again so think his ego may push him over the edge to go out with a bang (excuse the pun 😅)

Given the guff spouted by most media outlets at the moment (largely driven by DJT), I can see this being a temporary thing. A lot more of Iranian ships have been moving back and fore. Tanker insurance to head back and/ or leave apparently has a x4 premium so some leaving may not return quickly. Also all the Iran media is saying that nuclear talks have not been started, yet DJT saying agreements made for inspections. 60 day limit will likely be extended, kicking the can down the road till after the mid terms. Then who knows 🤷🏼‍♂️

The disappointing thing about the potential lists for Chancellor is; not one of them has any experience in the city or shown to have a full grasp of how financial markets and/ or business works. God help us. At least Torsten Bell isn’t on the prelim list

Off X so pinch of salt, but apparently SoH closed. US not trading today but oil still around $80 Barrell

Seems an easy option for Iran at the moment. Stall the negations, get their tankers out and back in = options for storage. Delay de-mining the SoH. This limits tanker movements, pushes the US SpR to the max, and improves their negotiating position even more.

Can’t see Israel backing down (and as they aren’t a signatory of the MoU… so why should they play ball 🤷🏼‍♂️). US may pull support but guess they have enough arms to keep going for a fair while yet.

DJT noted 4 weeks till tank bottoms. Oil price barely budged with all this going on 🤷🏼‍♂️. Looking back at prior spot prices for oil over the last 10 years, how Brent is near $80 barrel confounds me. There may not be a complete oil shock, but can see oil being back at/ over $100 barrel (especially when China starts buying again)

Iran apparently just suspended the MOU due to Israel strikes in Lebanon 🤷🏼‍♂️. Can’t find any main news source confirmation yet

Gogadget - shocking deal if this via Bloomberg is correct. DJT completely gave up

https://x.com/rory_johnston/status/2067034413846745354?s=46&t=faeNMQhbdNKsrP0bDsF_dQ

Gogadget - shocking deal is this via Bloomberg is correct. DJT completely gave up

https://x.com/rory_johnston/status/2067034413846745354?s=46&t=faeNMQhbdNKsrP0bDsF_dQ

Picked up some more at £2.52 recently (inc fees). Going to pick up some more post Friday to see where the sp settles. Think oil has been oversold for time being, with traders selling options to try and buy back cheaper soon, but can’t go on too long, and supply will take a bit of time to get moving. Add in possibility of deal /ceasefire collapsing, think the current sp is good value.

Tok.. everting I’ve read says the SoH opens on signing the MoU (to what extent though is highly unknown)

Seen a few estimates of 3-6 months but then DJT says they don’t have a navy so will be interesting to see how that plays out. SoH deal apparently includes passage fees - via Iran news, but no fees via US 🤷🏼‍♂️.

Agreed. Straight doesn’t open till Friday (long time away), then 60 days of negotiations to agree final deal. Judging by the draft MoU being leaked via various news outlets, US is really in a bind to get a deal done, so all the power with Iran. My question is, if tankers leave will they return? Insurance premiums would be through the roof

But now apparently Israel not agreeing to the MoU. It’s going to be interesting on open!

Brent down 3-4% around $84-85 barrel

I’d say until oil goes $120 plus, US. Are in holding pattern and doubt enough pressure will go onto Israel in the interim (until SPR Cushion becomes a major issue). Iran have the cards and probably the backing of Russia and China to see the US, keep digging themselves a hole - they are going to find increasingly difficult to get out of. It’s now a case of who can hold out the longest (and ide be betting Iran can take a lot more than the US/ Western economy)

Israel apparently just bombed Beirut so can’t see a deal being signed next few days if true. Hold on to your hats for Monday!

Off X but Iran media saying no deal reached and former red lines still in place (but now appears to note it wants full $24 billion frozen funds repaid)

TDDW 🤣

What ever happened to the element of surprise?🤷🏼‍♂️🤦🏼‍♂️ intelligence committee must be fuming, and if it’s a token post by DJT, Iran has the upper hand to challenge his weakness if he doesn’t follow through.