Member Info for Property1

edit at end of my last post, building/ growing the wider economy.

ps. articles in the fool website should be treated with a pinch of salt, i mean ****nic… most are utter tosh…

The car “scandal” is already built in to some degree but I’d agree it’s holding back share price. Bigger factor is getting pension companies and int investors to come back to UK market. Only way I can see that happening is by incentivising the market, get rid of stamp duty on purchases and relax pension fund investment. Share price could rocket but tax breaks are a dirty word politically, despite there being huge potential for buildings the wider economy.

Could we see 53p Friday? Not so much a rollercoaster more a small merigoround. Upping target price to 60p end of year if all things hold up and a small reduction from BoE July onwards. Time for horsey to break out into a canter rather than going round in circles at a walking pace.

To quote another article which references the uplift in house prices,

“ The ONS index is arguably the most comprehensive measure of UK house prices as it is based on final sale figures compiled by HM Land Registry. But its limitation is that it has a greater time lag than other HPIs, such as those produced by RICS and Rightmove. As well as being published two months after the data period, the prices it records may have been agreed several months before the sale was formally registered.”

Or in some cases, land reg figures can be over 12 months out of date before sale prices are updated with further adjustments as data comes in….

I’d suggest the ONS figures are horse 💩 overall and the article is just regurgitating usual guff from big estate agents who have a big grip on media output. Bigger properties are selling which inflates the price - basic maths - but reporters no longer check the source. House builders aren’t positive, just look at the layoff stats and companies going into administration. Massive drop in planning applications, so if the market is so healthy, why are all the indicators showing the opposite?

PT51 - I’d take the RM release with a pinch of salt. Note the article says “asking prices”. from what I hear on the ground, overvaluing is rife at the moment for agents to secure a sale property, then a few weeks later, they are discounting to get an actual sale (circa 10%, but is highly dependent on area). Also more higher value property coming onto the market, which depending on how they manipulate the data, could be inflating the index price. Saw a refurb property last month, asking over 1/4 million and even the agent said it was unrealistic and over a £100k where it should be marketed at. Can’t see mortgage rates coming down soon, so expect the property sector to be continually squeezed throughout 2024.

Back to Lloyds, they may get caught by the changes to bulk purchase under build to rent for Citra living, so it will be interesting to see how this impacts on the emerging BTR portfolio

https://www.pinsentmasons.com/out-law/news/uk-budget-2024-abolition-residential-property-tax-changes

TFE he ain’t gone yet. Result for new FM out today. Then hand over ceremony next week.

Sparz, 50p is definitely a hurdle, but with the ongoing buybacks, it’ll get over the line eventually. Id suggest the car scandal is holding back a decent price rise, but if that can be put to bed in 2024/25 and defaults on mortgage book remain relatively low, the share should recover well over next year. Dividend cover is good still so whilst this is the most frustrating share ever, still a half decent return overall

Lloyds hitting £5 a share 🤣🤣🤣🤣

Assuming you take an avg of 5% return at £5 level, Lloyds would need to be paying out a 25p divi. Currently under 3p. You do realise there are a shi£ load more shares in circulation compared to when they were over £5 before the bailout?

Halifax index like many of the house prices indices aren’t usually worth the paper they are written on. Data overly manipulated, source data very small and avg out across a wide area. Land reg data 6-9months out of date by publication date. In a digital world how Land Reg can’t do real time price updates is beyond

JCB page 10 of report below, reference significant write back, still a £303million impairment charge. Would have been bigger without the Telegraph money

https://www.lloydsbankinggroup.com/assets/pdfs/investors/financial-performance/lloyds-banking-group-plc/2023/q4/2023-lbg-fy-results.pdf

LTI I agree. I bought a car a few years ago, finance rate with dealer 8%. Ten mins online and found Sainsbury bank rate, 2.8%. Bit of a joke really to try claim something any person with an ounce of sense would go and compare other rates.

I think the bank also messed up with the results doing the usual PR guff of saying we contacted 7.5million customers (ie look how caring we are). Traders on the other hand probably thought, there’s 7.5 million people struggling with repayments/ loans/ mortgages etc… tanking the share price of future debts can’t be repaid and further write offs occur

Distinctly average results today. The divi and buy back is as expected, but the provisions for car loan debacle has demolished any chance of a share price increase until the scandal is put to bed. Business wise, good fwd planning, but dire for shareholders. This time next year Rodney…

Use a web scanner to find the article, copy and paste the link into this url https://12ft.io/

Interesting read

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/can-labours-no-money-note-still-work-magic-for-the-tories/

Labour came out yesterday saying they won’t go after bank bonuses - they have to go all in on the economy and any left wing element will have to play ball as otherwise they’ll tank the economy more so than Truss. Be interesting to see if conservatives dig out the old Labour note

'Dear chief secretary, I'm afraid to tell you there's no money left’

Can’t be a bad thing to have Nunn on the board. Also Labours announcement that they won’t bring back in bonus restrictions is good for the market as it’ll attract the best people to the industry. Giddy up horsey!

Not so convinced by the Lloyds business survey results going out in the media this am. Small sample size - and what business owner tells the bank they are anything other than confident? Business failure rate getting far too high for a “confident” outlook.

Https://news.sky.com/story/lloyds-banking-group-to-cut-1-600-jobs-as-it-shifts-towards-online-banking-13055876

When an article notes the “heady heights” of 48p, you would have to treat it with a pinch, or more like, a tonne of salt. All the pro press media on how well the economy is holding up and interest rates will fall in 2024 isn’t helping or being seen in the wider market. Recent cheaper mortgages are likely only to fill bank books with high quality mortgages. Until BoE starts saying rates are coming down, it’s going to be a bumpy ride.

Ramper articles don’t help and media pushing this agenda (most likely for political purposes) is highly amusing when you look at what’s happening in the business world (on the ground).

Interesting article on the subject of UK equities

https://www.schroders.com/en-gb/uk/intermediary/insights/stop-blaming-everything-on-pension-funds/