Member Info for Property1

Polish banks have been in trouble for last year (if not longer)

If/ when Labout govt come in, they wouldnt be able to afford nationalising all the bank (and the fall out from that would kill any investment in the UK for years to come - it would be Truss economics on a whole new level). They are more likely to nationalise water utility companies to try to combat pollution levels.

The only plus side of SVB is the buyback will be mopping up shares at this price which will mitigate some of the falls. Barring a further collapse of multiple US banks (and the budget not hammering banks via amended tax rates - cant see that happening as it'll add further upset to the financial market), I'm thinking the markets will stabilise over the next week. But it may be a slow march back up to the mid 50s for Lloyds. Barclays looking a better option at the moment.

Can’t see a govt bailout for SVB happening. Contagion risks noted in the US as well now (not to mention knock effect to all other businesses). Going to be an up and down week. Budget announcements will also impact share price. End of week and the market should be a bit more stable as things play out. Hold from me for now until we see sub 50p (maybe far lower if contagion risk spreads). DYOR

It is a bit isn’t it. Few different websites have different dates.

Isn’t it tomorrow?
Barclays website notes,
The full year dividend for the period ended 31 December 2022 of 5.0p per ordinary share will be paid on Friday 31 March 2023 to shareholders holding shares on the register on Friday 24 February 2023

American markets causing more issues than Lloyds results. Disappointing results mind. The £2b buy back will prop the price back up again when it starts (only way they seem to be able to keep the share price up above the mid 40’s/ low 50’s)

Would love to see a special dividend announced this week, but based on past results, can’t see it happening. Buy backs still seem flavour of the month, so circa £2b would help prop up the price (again). Lots of positive announcements recently on wider market, but uncertainty really is holding back the share price. May see a drop tomorrow, which if a large buy back is announced, hoping share price will have a bit of a lift early summer

I’ve seen clients take out ASHP as they cost more to run than old gas boilers (especially if you are on a mains supply).

I think the market also fears another windfall tax coming?

Posted a few times, but an interesting read
https://news.sky.com/story/interest-rates-are-high-enough-to-dampen-demand-and-cause-real-financial-pain-for-millions-of-households-12703187

Hunt new chancellor!

1% rise at least in my opinion, 1.25% if they don’t like the interim budget details. 1.5% would be an effective no confidence statement to the govt (which could unsettle markets even more than the current debacle). Mortgages stress tested now at 8-10% so rate rise will hit the property market hard as well as business investment/ lending. Let’s hope they launch another buy back of the Lloyds shares to prop up the share price in interim and reduce total shares in issue for medium- long term holders! DYOR

100-125bps. Going to be carnage in the mortgage market after

Some predicting up to 30% drop! I think they are well off at that level. Inflation on materials and cost of labour going up, so when you work out a pounds per sqft to build a new house (not including land costs, planning etc…), I’d be surprised if there is anything more than a 15% drop (even more so due to low build rates which is driving up demand).

I think the buy back is the only thing propping up this share at the moment. Be interesting to see if they announce another buy back with any spare funds at the full year results in Feb 23, or whether - with a potential market drop in house prices - they start buying up property throughout 2023...?

Going to be an interesting week. Can’t see how the BoE can wait till November for a rate rise when pound goes below the dollar

https://news.sky.com/story/labour-party-conference-live-battle-lines-drawn-with-mini-budget-frontbencher-says-labour-shouldnt-reverse-basic-rate-income-tax-cut-12593360

I didn’t say that. It’s unprecedented though for no confidence messages to be coming out from the Conservative party back benchers in such a short space of time. The party was split before, it’s divide is growing in my opinion (especially in the former red wall seats) and will likely continue. Changing the chancellor could be an option but I think they’ve gone all-in, so have little wiggle room, so will have to stay the course. Like I said, watch this space!

Carnage this morning on the share price/ drop in value of the pound. Rumours of Tory backbenchers already sending in letters of no confidence this morning. Could be the fastest change in PM ever! It’ll be interesting to see what the BoE does with rates this week - 1-1.5% rate increase mooted on market chat to stabilise the currency markets. Any rise this week will see the BoE stand against the gov’t. Watch this space!

Absolute farce of a budget. To quote the guardian
“The Treasury admitted there were no forecasts for the impact of the measures on growth”
Property market stoked (it doesn’t need stoking btw), Pound drops, inflation and cost of imports to soar leads to only one option, raise interest rates, which increases govt borrowing costs. QE options running slim with the value of the pound tanking. Gambling at this scale is beyond believable, I’ve seen 100-1 horses with more chance of success. It’s not even an each way bet territory