Member Info for PaulFG

Thanks guys,
It is the question of production which I think is holding me back. I've worked in CorpFin and Commodities trading for many years and I know how moneymen think and construct deals.
I can't see SP going crazy until this is confirmed. All that said I could suddenly change my mind over the weekend (lol)

Short term (today) I think SP could come under a little pressure this afternoon as traders square ahead of weekend. If it doesn't that's a good sign.

yes I assume it is 300ounces pm - it was the 15% pf production that kept scrambling my brain - I mean it didn't make sense to me unless there was some underlying actual volume otherwise the repayment cycle could continue forever on declining production volumes (should that happen).

As I said yesterday the due diligence OCIM performed was to ensure they get a return on their investment and it feels like many are extrapolating well beyond that meaning.

@Jersey I hear you but 15% of what production, given 2k pm is now touted. looking at what @itsyou posted it states fixed quantity of gold, so I'm going to assume that is 300ounces pm (15% of 2k)

so if they miss their production targets and only produce say 1k pm that's actually 30% of production - again production volume is key and that's probably why the SP isn't higher.
Smart money wants to see production levels confirmed which is why I've always thought March is the pivotal month for the SP.

thanks @Itsyou - so it is a fixed quantity. SO production volumes are pretty key then.

Do you know in this recent deal with OCIM if it was 15% of production or 15% of 2,000 ounces pm production.

Clearly if they're not hitting 2k pm and actually the deal was for 300 ounces pm then that percentage is much larger on lower production volumes which will impact a lot of things the company wants to achieve.

@onename & @Jersey - I'm still positive, but watching trading patters - volume reducing, SP settling, may now see some buying coming in to push price up OR may not, in which case could be doldrums until Q1 end 2023...

I'm just looking for a signal...

OCIM will have gone as deep as necessary to know they'll reap reward on THEIR investment - beyond that I wouldn't
extrapolate too much.

Hi Legal,
Been watching for a while - as you know I like JORC resource stocks, though not the greatest fan of the management and the behaviour here in during 2022. But I like Kenya and Tanzania for Gold production too.

I feel the time is close to a trade here, I just want to see what happens in the next few days. Ever since that other situation we exchange on timing is everything as we both know and honestly I believe March will be pivotal for long term share price trend...

@legal - not sure the churn is over yet. But technically if it ever retested the low 0.6s or even the high 0.5s there should be a wave of buying providing a technical bounce that would signal a long term recovery. That would provide a strong signal to momentum traders.

@eye - yup agreed. Bigger resource (albeit 30% thereof) and better jurisdiction. I am certain GCAT time is coming, I would be more inclined to compare it to SHG (still £100m mcap there). Lots of upside for sure.

@jersey - yes I totally get that.
And funding solution is fantastic news - but it was also fantastic news when GGP secured it (to almost zero market reaction), the market may need more - that news may come in March statement.

But yes as it stands looks like a reasonable buy 'n hold medium term investment.

ok, I get that.

good thing it's non-dilutive given there is already 1.879bn shares in issue...

or GCAT, rather...

Hi Goldinthemthereh, if you're saying people may have misinterpreted that tweet, I agree. I was sort of scratching my head as to why people where getting excited about it , as it is about a completely different mine, right?
If I'm the one misinterpreting this please inform me.
Obvs I'm still bullish here, but not expecting progress as soon as perhaps others are.

Interesting development at cgat, could see something like that here
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/GCAT/us105m-non-dilutive-financing-secured-p8fw27vu2nvwnu5.html

bodes well for future exploration.

Frankly Legal I expected a far more newsey Q4 than we've had:
> Component analysis from last year's drilling (I can't frigging believe we are still waiting for this - dump GSMB)
> Announcement of the commencement of the planned drilling program for this year
> Signing of the contract with the Oluvil Port Authority
> and of course the eternally awaited for OFFTAKE/FINANCING agreement

Interesting review here on 2 mineral sands miners but also on macro conditions as China deploys a stimulus plan.
https://smallcaps.com.au/two-australian-sand-racers-are-picking-up-speed/

"Investment banks, in reports written at the end of October, before China last week signalled it would launch a fresh round of property sector stimulus, noted the weaker market but were largely unconcerned about the longer outlook given the tight fundamentals for mineral sands.

Citi said the September quarter was likely to have been the price peak for zircon and titanium minerals in the current cycle.

Goldman Sachs, however, told clients that high grade titanium dioxide and zircon supply remain tight and while prices were flat, they would continue to rise into next year."

let's see what happens if it gets to 10p, it could be a tech bounce from there which would start the recovery.