Member Info for PaulFG

Legal - thanks for clarification.
Yes I think everyone's risk profile is different and you have to trade correspondingly.

Hands up I've had 2 top-ups this morning - first time in a long time - but thought about it over the weekend and if they've been in negotiations for months with offtakers (and I know these things take forever), with country risk declining and progress being made regardless, with IML granted, the project is significantly de-risked, for me anyway.

I would hardly call that last 'interview' with Sarah Lowther a 'grilling'. There was obviously a list of questions but there was no follow up on answers given, just move on to the next question on the list.
The thing is with most of these YouTubers you have to remember this is probably their side-gig, they are usually no more than either PR people or well-meaning amateurs (usually punting their own portfolios), I think Sarah Lowther runs a gourmet foodstall in Berkhamsted for example (don't quote me on that).
On funding reqmt, I think MF has always said financing for production would be a mixture of offtake, debt, and raise with the emphasis limiting the raise. DFS clearly being done to raise debt.

I think we're in for a newsworthy few months ahead, for me the noteworthy events are:
> autumn drilling program if that's still going ahead (it was costed for)
> Oluvil Port agreement
> Offtake agreement
> Analysis on mineral sands constituent components on previous drilling

I am also eager to see the resource expanded.

I am considering adding to my position ...

Justone, my bigger concern was if they'd thought about taking it private again given the low mcap.

Nice to read upbeat comments again on here , Justone, I have millions of these things tucked away, quite calm despite current situation and moreso when I consider what the team have accomplished in last year in v difficult circumstances.
Happy and confident to bottom drawer these and await developments the market will notice the disconnect between sp and inherent value, sometime.

NPV AROUND $110M MCAP @ $12M

Well I guess we know by now to be conservative on time lines

Thanks Justone, but not on prem here. But I hear your bullishness and saw the trades close after the AGM adjourned.

I am also bullish and relax, they've delivered up to now and I'm sure they're moving ahead. When you think about it we've had a lot this last year - they just let themselves down publishing a timetable they couldn't keep to.

Did you guys get the impression that as debt financing forms part of the development they are waiting for DFS completion before they proceed?

I notice the new presentation does not give deadlines, good, but it's more of a roadmap - perhaps they're finally learning.

I have to say it is concerning that the SP has broken below 20p. Looking at the charts this could now drift easily to the mid-teens. Without news and continued bearish macro sentiment.

https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/994071/capital-metals-set-for-significant-re-rating-once-development-funding-for-eastern-minerals-project-is-secured-994071.html?viewSource=TwitterUK

I think it's important to remember here:
"In this context, the current valuation ascribed by the market to Capital Metals looks ungenerous to say the least. The net present value of Eastern Minerals – even without potential further expansion – stands at a wholesome US$155mln. Over its ten year life the project is likely to generate a net profit – yes, net – of US$262mln.

And yet the market capitalisation is a mere £10mln."

"The Sri Lanka discount is one factor, but as we’ve mentioned, although Sri Lankan politics has been turbulent, if anything that unrest has only served to increase the appetite in-country for the project to be developed. The IMF have now stepped in to help, and the situation looks to have stabilised. In addition, there’s no real precedent for sequestration in Sri Lanka politics, and the government itself is running projects similar to Capital Metals’ nearby.

The other factor at play might be a discounting of the share price in anticipation of any equity raise to get the project into production.

But, while it’s impossible to rule anything out, Capital Metals’ clear intention is to get the project up and running without the need for any significant further dilution.

What exact form that might take remains open to question, although offtake and debt are likely to play a role, and there may also be some form of strategic financing at the project level. It’s noteworthy too that some of the potential partners Frayne has been talking to reckon that the project can actually be developed for less than is currently budgeted.

Whether that’s true or not, it remains conceivable that once the funding doubts are removed the shares will re-rate substantially, as the market looks to close the gap between that US$155mln net present value and the £10mln market capitalisation – and that’s before considering any upside from anticipated expansion of the project."

Bear in mind with the near collapse in £stg that $USD:£STG rate is all to our benefit.

ihowells, AGM is today.

Unfortunately, I'm not in the office today otherwise I would have joined you Justone,

Will be interested to get attendees views on forward looking statements rather than the 'all we have accomplished in the last 18 months', which is great, but we all want more...

ah ok
yes sorry I read it another way.
The only reason I see Demir walking is because they no longer think the project will yield them economic/enough economic value.

interesting, why do you think Demir walk on completion of Phase 1?

These things never go as quick as you want or as management indicate. This is the start of a very long process as Prof C keeps saying, people need to listen, a lot of patience is required and that's way before any thoughts of a mine...

I know, Legal, I was pretty shocked when I read that paragraph myself.

https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/993639/capital-metals-approaches-development-stage-at-eastern-minerals-in-sri-lanka-993639.html?viewSource=TwitterUK

The few paragraphs:
"Chairman George Martyr said: "This has been an extremely busy period and we are delighted that the activities undertaken led to the grant, in August 2022, of the first two IMLs.

“The IMLs are a major step forward in enabling the commencement of mining activities, and the advancement of ongoing discussions with offtakers, debt providers and other strategic funding parties.”

Going forward, Capital Metals said it “will need to raise further funds within the next 12 months, in order to meet its expected expenditures, and progress the Group into the next phase of definitive feasibility, and then into construction and finally into production"."

I mean now they're going to do a DFS?

OKAY so a question for the AGM for anyone able to go: does the fact that they're going for a DFS now signal that they're looking to raise debt to develop the resource? And if so does this mean that the previously oft mentioned offtake appetites have diminished?

Cmet suddenly popped up on my LinkedIn feed today, headline: countdown to production.

Thing is here DRJJ, the announcements come, not when you want (becos we're all impatient investors) but out of the blue (almost when least expected).
So I've decided just let MF et al to get on with it and not sweat when when when. They deliver.

https://travel-economictimes-indiatimes-com.cdn.ampproject.org/c/s/travel.economictimes.indiatimes.com/amp/news/destination/international/road-ahead-for-sri-lanka-tourism-recovery/94000313

"Fortunately, stability has returned with a new President and economic restructuring is being actively pursued. An agreement has been reached with the International Monetary Fund which will underpin negotiations with lenders. Although getting the economy back on track will take months, Sri Lankans have heaved a collective sigh of relief that the unrest has ended, and normalcy returned."