Member Info for OrsonModesto

You have no idea what you are talking about. On the contrary, now is the perfect time to lift the moratorium from a political perspective. Gunner would look like a dumbess if the report came out recommmending to lift the moratorium under proper regulatory oversight, and then Gunner waited two years to make a decision. Also, very little will be happening over the next two years in regards to exploration. Maybe 6-8 wells total. Also, you should probably look up the referendum process related to the NT. It ain’t happening. Anyways, have a good weekend everyone. Pretty sure we will see the final report on Monday. And a fairly quick decision from the government shortly thereafter.

Oh, and about that group of anti-frackers that was there? About 20. The usual suspects. Meanwhile, at the same time this debate was going on, 150+ members of the business community, people who actually create jobs and wealth for the territory, were meeting to discuss how they and the territory could benefit from an onshore gas industry. https://www.facebook.com/9NewsDarwin/videos/1746604708711827/?hc_ref=ARQBSNskvciR_KHEXE4hxG9se_Lc4vSCBDxEAytuubWMTEIUKplP7-S9eW21Yungv08&fref=nf

This is a prime example of not believing everything you read in the news. The debate that was presented is actually a very good read - very well thought out and well researched. Why exactly they did it? I don't know, other than simpling saying POLITICS. But the CLP did nail it in that only a single labor member stood up during the debate, even to contest the motion. And what did she say? She praised how incredibly extensive the inquiry process has been, and how great Pepper has consulted with the community. But above all else, her main point was that this process wasn't even about fracking, it was about restoring trust due the previous CLP government. Anyways, I suggest reading the debate if you really want to get the real story. It can found from pages 24-41 here: http://www.territorystories.nt.gov.au/jspui/bitstream/10070/294579/2/Debates%20Day%205%20-%2021%20March%202018.pdf

Hmmm, lets see, what exactly is the purpose of the AGES conference? About AGES: The Northern Territory Geological Survey's Annual Geoscience Exploration Seminar (AGES) is held every March in Alice Springs and is the Territory's premier EXPLORATION-FOCUSED event. AGES is a TECHNICAL conference that presents a unique opportunity to access the latest fresh EXPLORATION IDEAS and GEOSCIENTIFIC data from the Territory. So please, Mr. Read, please tell me why the lack of environmental speakers was, quote, telling? Otherwise, I do appreciate Mr. Vowles comments. Time IS money. And what is it that NT does not have? Oh yeah, money.

The Sullivan name mentioned in the article should ring a bell for those that have done some true DD into the players of the NT. And as a small hint, there are actually two Sullivan lineages that have sway in the NT.

Anti-fracking groups are reporting that the final report will be released on March 26th. After that Katherine times article, I started to expect the report to be released after the parliamentary hearings, since gunners office stated the decision would be made “in private” - meaning between the cabinet. Probably going to be a lot of “chatter” between now and the then. Good luck to those that have had the stones to hold tight over the last 18 months. (Or years longer)

A couple of snippets from an article that's probably along the same lines as what you posted, but I don't have 140 mins to spare at the moment :) -Addressing the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington early today, the Rockhampton-based senator also said mining had �never been more crucial than it is now� and hit out at the �ignorant campaign against unconventional gas techniques� in Australia, particularly in the Northern Territory. Senator Canavan said there was a lot of interest in the NT�s resources after attending a major oil and gas conference in Houston, Texas. US companies also warned of the need to open up more gas reserves in Australia on the sidelines of the National Governors Association conference attended by Malcolm Turnbull late last month. Some suggest (the NT�s gas) could be as productive as the shales here in the States, Senator Canavan said. We need to counter the misinformation that is preventing the appropriate development of natural resources. Permanent bans on gas developments are not based on any form of scientific evidence. It is a �voodoo science� that promotes fake facts over hard data. Matt Canavan Takes Coalition's Adani fight to US https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=2&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0ahUKEwinzNPuheDZAhWqllQKHUJnCzsQqOcBCDcwAQ&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.theaustralian.com.au%2Fnational-affairs%2Fmatt-canavan-takes-coalitions-adani-fight-to-us%2Fnews-story%2F860b941d2803da4a3333e408a0f1e31d&usg=AOvVaw1NdM7pSzGzWJOOfc94mb70

“I’ve made my choice, if the moratorium is LIFTED in April and we can get back to work my family and our business will permanently move to the Territory and commit to it in its fullest.” (Emphasis added for those that lack reading comprehension) http://www.ntnews.com.au/news/sponsored-content/the-public-benefit-of-doing-it-the-nt-way/news-story/095b3ea45490b862886c130e40d2b74e -Their report said the moratorium on fracking should be LIFTED in April and that the industry could create almost 1500 jobs and invest more than $1.3 billion a year within the next five years. https://m.ruralweekly.com.au/news/nt-fracking-inquiry-working-out-the-no-frack-areas/3341174/ For the record, NT parliamentary hearings are this month from March 13-15 and March 20-22. There are no sitting dates in April. The next dates are May 1-3.

Based on some information I came across, I am still of the opinion that drilling, and possibly the completion and testing of at least one well will still take place this year. I am just not comfortable posting the links to this info at this time due to the obvious sleuthing of the LTG sheep. Not only do we know they patrol this website, there were also presenters who used news releases from Falcon, Malcolm Graham Wood, and Proactive Investors in their presentations to make slanderous statements against the onshore gas industry. LTG also posted the recent article on Falcon with some POQ quotes on their facebook page to stir up controversy that an Irish firm wants to destroy Australia. They are getting desperate.

Their major fallacy to their argument is that the have been hammering the panel that they have not looked at an unconventional oil and gas industry's cumulative effects to world emissions, but then do not address how gas can offset the major polluters of the world, like China, who still burn massive amounts of coal. What would be better? Increasing the emissions 5% from a country that has 25 million people and contributes 1.24% of the world's total CO2 emissions, or reducing emissions 5% from a country of 1.5 BILLION people that contributes almost 30% of the world's emissions. And for all the talk about China moving to renewables, they just set a multi-year high in coal imports, the major bulk of it from Australia: -China imported 11.75 million mt of thermal coal in January, up 23% from 9.58 million mt in the year-ago month, and 30% compared with December, the highest monthly total since April 2014, according to customs data released Monday. https://www.platts.com/latest-news/coal/london/chinese-january-coal-imports-hit-multi-year-high-21414551

The actual quote by Gunner was: (begin quote) We've got to have a decision around onshore, that's one thing, but it seems to have been at the distraction of talking about our offshore reserves. They are real, they are there and that can be developed now. (end quote) This is actually a good thing, as he can placate the unions, MUA, CFMEU, etc. with more work from further Darwin LNG expansion/backfill oppurtunities, and just bank off royalties and additional jobs from onshore gas. Santos and Inpex both have a big stakes in the Darwin LNG, and obviously they have been very vocal in pushing for onshore development.

Also on the trip? �Ian Kew, Chairman, CEO or Darwin Airports and Chair of the Darwin Major Business Group. The DMBG has submitted a submission to the inquiry and also been vocal in supporting the lifting of the moratorium. And, �Greg Ireland President, Chamber of Commerce NT, and �Stuart Kenny, Consultant for Austal and also office holder with Chamber of Commerce NT. The Chamber of Commerce has also been very vocal about lifting the moratorium. Plus, the whole referendum campaign is a fraud. It was created by the New South Wales Lock the Gate Regional Coordinator Dean Draper. It also claims that only NT residents can sign the petition. I found at least 7 people in about 5 minutes of searching that clearly were not residents of the NT that have signed the petition. There has only been one referendum called in the NT, and that was in 1998 when they tried to become a state. It failed obviously. Gunner would look like a complete clown if he agreed to this one.

Haven't found the actual presentation yet, but I found an Abstract/preview from the recent Kyalla presentation: COULD THE MESOPROTEROZOIC KYALLA FORMATION EMERGE AS A VIABLE GAS CONDENSATE SOURCE ROCK RESERVOR PLAY IN THE BEETALOO SUB-BASIN? Carl Altmann1*, Elizabeth Baruch2, David Close3, Alexander Cote4, Brenton Richards5, Mohinudeen Faiz 6 The Mesoproterozoic Kyalla Formation (Kyalla) in the Beetaloo Sub-Basin has historically yielded consistent high mud gas shows, and exhibited evidence of oil and gas in cores from exploration wells. Despite positive hydrocarbon indicators, the Kyalla is often overlooked as a potential regional unconventional resource play due to the apparent high clay content (50-70 wt%) thought to affect the potential for effective hydraulic fracture stimulation. Preliminary petrophysical, core and gas analysis from exploration wells drilled by Origin Energy in 2015-16 revealed positive reservoir quality indicators including high total porosity (8-10 %BV), moderate hydrocarbon saturations (40-60% PV), geochemical indicators consistent with an adequate indigenous hydrocarbon source (2-3 wt% TOC, Type I/II Kerogen, VReq 1.3-1.5) and moderate to high qualitative gas condensate potential as indicated by gas chromatographic analysis on mud gas and drill cuttings headspace gas. Furthermore, geomechanical testing on recovered core indicates properties conducive to hydraulic fracture stimulation. Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (FTIR) analysis indicates bulk clay content is primarily comprised of mica species, in particular muscovite. The relative abundance of muscovite over other clay types may play a key role in explaining the observed geomechanical properties of the Kyalla despite its overall high bulk clay content. If the Kyalla is technically viable, it will add an alternative or additional play in a Basin that has the potential to be key to long term supply stability to domestic and export gas markets.

Just some added tidbits - I had come across this awhile back from one of Origin's submission to the inquiry. Please note the referenced "attachment 2" in the statement was redacted from the submission: Although we haven�t published estimates of resources within other intervals in the Beetaloo Basin, we have done work on other intervals including the C Shale of the Velkerri Formation and the Kyalla Formation. Attached (Attachment 2) is a short summary of the potential for resources within these other formations � all the material within Attachment 2 is confidential as it has not been released to market and ASX rules prevent disclosure in its current form. In summary, what we have said publicly is that the potential of the Kyalla Formation has not been fully addressed in the exploration campaigns of 2015-16; however, there are sufficient gas composition data to confirm that any production from the Kyalla Formation would be considered �liquids rich� (condensate to gas ratios of >~30 bbls/mmscf). Liquids production, and the potential to utilise surface infrastructure to develop both the Kyalla and Velkerri formations, would greatly improve project economics. It is likely that if the Kyalla Formation play is successful that it would supersede the Velkerri Formation play as a priority and that it would provide substantially better economic returns (and consequently royalties and taxes).

The program for this year's AGES conference has been released, and one of Origin's geologists will be presenting on the Kyalla Formation. The conference will be held on March 20-21 at the Alice Springs Convention Center. The Kyalla Formation prospectivity from a mineralogical and sedimentological perspective https://dpir.nt.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0008/483578/AGES2018_program.pdf Nanodarcy - do you go to this conference?

The panel was very clear during the formal hearings that they wanted very detailed plans from Pangaea, Origin, and Santos that expanded on their proposed development plans, employment numbers, capex spend, etc. Looks like Pangaea is first out the gate with this. I have been impressed with Pangaea during this inquiry. They have really been hitting the ground hard drumming up support and getting good info out to the people in the NT. Obviously this doesn't make the news. Hopefully Origin and Santos have been doing some of the same. I read that Origin has had some local contractors working on a man camp and refurbing the airstrip in Daly Waters. Hopefully these area encouraging signs.

For what it is worth, this is from Gunner in Question time during parliamentary hearings on Feb 7, 2018 Opposition Leader Gary Higgins asked: When will you make a decision on onshore gas? When will you start working on the regulations for onshore gas? When will you give the green light to these 6300 jobs? ANSWER I and our team have taken a very deliberate approach of having an inquiry, independent of government as we promised and no decision we make either to ban or to allow in highly-regulated and tightly-prescribed areas until after the independent report drops. We will make that decision as soon as possible after that report drops, recognising the importance of certainty for everyone involved in this debate. There are a lot of people who have invested in this debate. We have said that repeatedly and I say it again today. We will make that decision after the independent inquiry hands down its report, and the decision will be very straightforward. It will be to either ban fracking in the Northern Territory or to allow it in highly-regulated circumstances in tightly-prescribed areas. We are very clear about our promise. I do not think there is any confusion. I do not think the CLP has heard me say it enough because they have asked the question again today. I feel like I have said this a lot. That is the process we said we will do. That is the process we will follow. That is the decision we are confronting and have to make. The report is coming down soon. As I said, we will make the decision as soon as possible after that report drops. The decision will be between banning fracking in the Northern Territory or allowing it in highly-regulated circumstances and tightly-prescribed areas. The independent inquiry is a deliberate attempt to restore trust to how government make decisions. One of the reasons we are having this argument about fracking in the Northern Territory is because Territorians lost complete trust in the CLP�s ability to make a decision during the chaos of the CLP years. This process is about making a decision on fracking but it is also about showing how we can restore trust to government making decisions in the Northern Territory because of the tragedy of the CLP years, the tragedy of the chaos and the two and a half chief minister�s�a lot of cabinet reshuffles�they had many different attempts to try to get people in a room who could work together and make decisions. They failed in every single circumstance. We are showing that you can have stability, you can have a clear process and independence and we will make that decision after the independent inquiry delivers its report.

Studies before exploration will not happen. Why? It doesn’t even make sense to do it this way. First off, you are telling the government that they must invest in another multi-million multi-year endeavor. Does the NTG have this money? No. Also, how do you even know what you are basing anything off of? The ACIL economic report didn’t even consider the results of the Amungee well in their report. How do you expect to do more studies off a hypothetical industry that may or may not take place? Because you can’t. Not only that, but almost all of the data that may be considerd in a development scenario will only be learned through an exploratory program. And that will only take place through private investment by a company willing to invest the capital. I totally understand Pepper saying “yes, we will consider these opinions”. In fact, she should say that to every recommendation being offered up. But reality is another story. Only through an exploration program can they learn the data that may or may not be needed for additional studies should a development scenario even be possible.

It's interesting that RBC is only buying today after it's subdued research report.

Basically every oil and gas company in the world was in a sad state of affairs in 2015, and was "doomed" according to the analysts.