Member Info for OrsonModesto

Thanks for your insights WW. Are you talking about the APPEA conference? Origin is presenting at it. I think Nano said he would be there.

It’s taken almost 20 months for us to get back to BO’s once a week rant about how bad of a CEO POQ is, and I, for one, could not be more excited to be back to this point, and the SP still be at price I can still accumulate.

For fun, I thought I would dig up one of my old post/threads from 7 Sept 2017, as the man I discussed then is who was named as head of the implementation team - Dr. David Ritchie http://newsroom.nt.gov.au/mediaRelease/25503 I was pretty impressed with him throughout the inquiry/hearings. Always thought he seemed very level-headed and realistic. Also very close to the current government already through his other positions as chair of the NT grants commission and NT planning commission.

This was a pretty good article form a couple months ago related to M&A activity is Australia. I know it relates to potential 2018 activity but there are some good macro points that are relevant to Falcon. Who are the next oil and gas M&A targets? https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/who-are-the-next-oil-and-gas-m-and-a-targets-20180206-p4yzia.html Couple key points: -Australian junior and mid-cap oil and gas companies are now in the spotlight. Billions of dollars are on the line as more foreign players � particularly Asian national oil corporations � look to secure supply and gain a foothold in lucrative Australian assets for relatively cheap prices. -Potential targets should also have growth opportunities, so a focus on � and appetite for � exploration is key in order to lift supply. -Despite the obvious crunch looming now for some years, the industry has only now responded as it takes time to mobilise the capital and plan the work programs required to drill, test, appraise, and develop the fields for production -Anyone with a proven or plausible gas project supplying into the tight east coast market will also become attractive

Correction - the other well was North to Northeast of the Beetaloo W-1

There are two other important pieces of the puzzle to review when guessing at where potential well locations could be. One is to go back and review where all they seismic data. Luckily, they have quite a bit, but there are some areas that were really hammered. The other piece of information is to look at the farm-out agreement work program, and which EP's they proposed hitting at which time and whether they are vertical tests, horizontals, etc. And to WW's point, they did actually have another well approved by the DPIR called the Beetaloo C-1 I think, that was NW of the Beetaloo W-1 about 20-30 miles.

It is worth going back and looking at Dr. Close's 2016 AGES presentation. Specifially the corrected Figure 3 on the last page on this report: https://geoscience.nt.gov.au/gemis/ntgsjspui/bitstream/1/82730/1/AGES2016_Close_et_al.pdf I had come across an Origin paper/submission awhile back, I think to the DPIR, that I am trying to find again that showed about 5-6 additional proposed well locations that had already been approved by the pastoralists and TO's, and almost all of them were in the "transition" window in the above figure 3, being east of the Amungee well. I wish I had saved this document at the time, but I think I was on my phone. Anyway, I believe this gave a pretty good indication of where else they would drill some wells. And yes WW, this is a much more pleasant conversation to be having!

The NTG has set up a website detailing the implementation process and timeline, reserved area map, and other info. Can be found here: https://hydraulicfracturing.nt.gov.au/ Not much we don't know, their timeline reiterates that the implementation plan will be released in July, and all pre-exploration phase recommendations implemented by the end of the year.

If you go back and look at the timeline of the SP after they released the initial resources estimates, it essentially took 5 weeks from 14 Feb to 20 March to level out in the .37 - .39 CAD range, where it floated around for the next 8 months, and then only dropped when they announced a delay to the inquiry for the social impact re-do.

Thanks Nano, makes sense. Origin did state in one of their submissions; "In the near term Origin plans to progress a production retention license application for Amungee NW-1H."

Ha, you got it. Sometimes I feel/felt I took my DD to an extreme, but I do like to feel that I know my investments better than anyone else, at least in my own mind. I have to admit, I started to have a little bit of a freak out over this last weekend as I had told myself for the last 15 months that I was happy with my position, but over the last couple weeks added another 110,000 shares, which may have been a little against conventional wisdom as far as being a little overextended on one stock but very glad it has worked out. I guess I basically repeated what POQ said in my previous post after I just listed to his interview. Glad we are on the same page! Lastly, I am not concerned about the SP moving forward. At any time an institutional investor can and likely will step in and take this thing quite a bit higher. At that time, or when the drill bit hits the dirt, the SP will begin to reflect the true value of this asset. And as someone else mentioned, there are a lot of LTH's who will be happy to step aside as this thing moves higher.

Sorry, I don't know the ASX rules for reporting O&G reserves. I imagine they would have to have a production test, or at least a DFIT completed, on the Kyalla reservoir. I know there has been/is a lot of talk about a cap raising to cover expenses or additional drilling. I think it is important to remember that the next well is fully carried and then up to a total gross spend of A$101m on the last four wells. This is A LOT of money for four wells. I highly doubt there would be a cap raise until after a couple more wells are drilled, which should mean the SP becomes substantially higher. That should be enough wells to book reserves in the Velkerri, and also complete a resource estimate on the Kyalla. All, I know is that I am so glad we are no longer talking about the naomitorium, but the actual work program/future activities. I know we all want to make a few bucks off this bird, but as someone who works in the industry, I am also quite excited about the development of this play.

I remember seeing this as the one recommendation that would keep anything from happening this year as I didn’t think it had been done yet, but nonetheless: Mr Gunner said he expected fracking exploration to begin in the middle of next year. He said it would be at least six months for data to be collected on methane levels across the Territory. "There's a number of recommendations, over 30 that require to be put in place before the exploration process can recommence, so I think doing all that work should see an exploration process commence some time around dry season next year," he said.

Official release: http://newsroom.nt.gov.au/mediaRelease/25488

I had pulled the quote a while back. Forgot they said they had done work on the C shale and other intervals as well: "Although we haven�t published estimates of resources within other intervals in the Beetaloo Basin, we have done work on other intervals including the C Shale of the Velkerri Formation and the Kyalla Formation. Attached (Attachment 2) is a short summary of the potential for resources within these other formations � all the material within Attachment 2 is confidential as it has not been released to market and ASX rules prevent disclosure in its current form. In summary, what we have said publicly is that the potential of the Kyalla Formation has not been fully addressed in the exploration campaigns of 2015-16; however, there are sufficient gas composition data to confirm that any production from the Kyalla Formation would be considered �liquids rich� (condensate to gas ratios of >~30 bbls/mmscf). Liquids production, and the potential to utilise surface infrastructure to develop both the Kyalla and Velkerri formations, would greatly improve project economics. It is likely that if the Kyalla Formation play is successful that it would supersede the Velkerri Formation play as a priority and that it would provide substantially better economic returns (and consequently royalties and taxes)."

The NT media has been advised to be at Parliament House at 9am darwin time (Tuesday)

Resource estimates on the Kyalla were submitted to the panel but redacted from the submissions made public.

pinch poke you owe me a coke ;)

Government sources say it’s highly likely that the moratorium will be lifted next week, with the decision expected to come on Monday or Tuesday. https://t.co/FAtAQuy4wJ?amp=1 https://m.facebook.com/FrackFactsTheTruth/photos/a.1638159842944032.1073741827.1638097962950220/1696465617113454/?type=3&source=48

Ha APRIL 25th!