Member Info for OrsonModesto

FYI - Firetail did the DFITS on the Kyalla well. I know they also did some work for Santos in the Beetaloo. Seems like things are cooking behind the scenes. I wonder if we will get a PR which coincides with Ms. Stoner's presentation.

"ON THE MOVE: We're proud to announce that over the past week we have been awarded multiple tenders to provide a range of services in including Water Storage, Fluid Management, Flowback and Well Test services. These services will be provided for multiple clients in the Beetaloo and Cooper Basin area's."

https://www.linkedin.com/company/firetail-energy-services/

This recently released Bioregional assessment is a nice refresher all things Beetaloo. I haven’t gone through it enough to see if any new info is presented.

https://www.bioregionalassessments.gov.au/assessments/geological-and-bioregional-assessment-program/beetaloo-sub-basin/beetaloo-gba-region-stage-two-report

So, in trying to spur a little conversation on this board from all the great posters out there, I will propose a question(s) for all to answer, sort of a poll if you will. Please answer the following:

1: Your guess at the date of the next news release?
2. Topic or information discussed in said news release?

Annnnnnd GO!!!!

"The project will tap an estimated 3 trillion cu ft of natural gas in the Surat Basin."

And what are the estimates for the Beetaloo?

It looks like one of the positives out of the new terms is that Origin is committed (required?) to complete and test the Kyalla by the end of this year. If that happens, and it comes on gangbusters, we should be in pretty good shape again. That is only 8 months from now at the most. It also looks like all other time-frames are thrown out the window other than possibly drilling the Velkerri flank well next year.

It’s a fantastic deal for us, don’t you know?

“Falcon Oil & Gas Plc (LON:FOG) has executed a “fantastic” deal for shareholders and is not set to “sail through the seas of uncertainty”, according to stockbroker Cenkos, which rates Falcon as a ‘buy’.”

https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/916820/falcon-oil--gass-fantastic-deal-has-eliminated-funding-risks---cenkos-916820.html

This also came out this week:

Natural gas ‘our silver bullet’
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/natural-gas-our-silver-bullet/news-story/238be452fb98bb52b48d8ca8f0ad737b?fbclid=IwAR1vWptgpqIvXgeWjWXQPAWgoDOCuVqZR0NLHmaFovMZ-3CNc7dh_eJFRCk

Liveris says Australia needs to increase self-sufficiency, including developing its domestic gas industry. “If you want some shovel-ready things to do, I would look to the energy and gas area,” he says. “Natural gas can be our silver bullet. We have an abundance of gas. We can have gas storage and generation and transmission. We could put together a plan within minutes and execute it in a few months and get more gas supply in a year.”

Rules and regulations, and just everything in general, are changing fast. At this point, Origin has to apply for an exemption to the non-essential travel list. The Chief Health Officer must approve this exemption, but the Chief Minister and Chief of Police have already recommended that the resources and exploration industries be granted waivers for their FIFO workers as long as the present a legitimate plan to address any concerns relating to spreading the virus.
https://coronavirus.nt.gov.au/community-advice/border-controls/exemption-to-self-quarantine

Hopefully they are still able to complete the Kyalla in April, but considering the circumstances, even if it gets pushed back a month or two, that likely doesn't materially affect the overall timeline. Still have time to drill and complete the Velkerri wet gas well this year as planned, as well. Based off that tweet and some of the others in that thread, sounds like the rig is packed up and ready to move.

Origins 4th quarter is April 1st to end of June.

Good catch knight. The investor presentation shows they ended up drilling a 1,579 meter horizontal section after the side track. Just short of a mile.

Good catch, my mistake. Meant EP 76 not EP 117.

The Hayfield station owner (where they are drilling the Kyalla) has posted comments online that they have had about 4 inches of rain in the last couple of weeks. I don't know if this would prevent them from moving the rig. Looking at the access road they would have to use, they would have some creek crossings/low-lying areas to contend with. But either way, if they don't drill the velkerri wet gas well this year, they are going to be hard pressed to drill a different well this year at the current pace. Of course, we have no idea what the current terms of the farm-out are, so who knows what kind of schedule Origin is being held to. I also think they have work commitments for EP 117 they have to satisfy or they will have to give up additional acreage.

They won't have to permit new monitoring wells.

Nice vote of confidence to exercise the warrants/options, but I am sure POQ will get another grant soon. Anyways, thanks for sharing your exchange. As far as I know, the Trustee has been granted a court order allowing him to sale the Falcon shares as of July, 2019. There has been several hundred thousand dollars in attorneys fees approved for reimbursement by the court since that time, and the sale of Falcon shares are about the only place I can imagine they would be able to come up with that money.

The court order:
THIS MATTER, having come before the Court on the Motion of the Chapter 7
Trustee for an Order authorizing him to sell property of the estate in the ordinary course
pursuant to 11 U.S.C. §363 free and clear of liens and encumbrances, and its file with
respect to this matter; notice of the Debtor’s motion having been given pursuant to the
requirements of Rule 9013 L.R.B.P., and no objection having been timely filed, or the
Court, having received an objection, having convened a hearing in this matter and having
made findings of facts and conclusions of law; and deeming itself advised in the premises;
HEREBY FINDS that cause exists for granting the Trustee’s motion.
THEREFORE, THE COURT ORDERS:
1. The Trustee’s motion is granted.
2. The Trustee is hereby authorized to sell all of the shares of stock in Falcon Oil &
Gas, Ltd. owned by the estate on the Toronto Stock Exchange in the ordinary
course of business.
3. In the event the Trustee is approached by individuals or entities soliciting large bulk
acquisitions of Falcon Oil & Gas, Ltd. shares, the Trustee is hereby authorized to
make such bulk sales without further Court approval, provided such transactions do
not allow for a discount of greater than 10%.
DATED: July 9, 2019

I found it interesting that Santos has applied for , and the minister intends to grant, the now-named EP354 (Exploration Permit) to Santos. EP354 is the portion of EP76 and EP99 that Origin and Falcon previously let go of. I wonder if Dr. Close has a new opinion of the prospects of this area of the Beetaloo. Santos would have had to present and commit to a work plan for this newly acquired acreage. Maybe it's just a land grab, but with how aggressive Santos has been in the NT lately, and coming off some recent well results, in would seem more than that.

Anyways, sure seems to be a lot of positive momentum for the Beetaloo so far this year. Sure wish we would get on with some positive news/results.

He netted 1.5 million additional shares from this transaction. With the full facts presented, did he really sell a crap load of shares along the way?

He does have 2,000,000 options expiring January 25th (next week) at a measly strike price of $0.15.

Should provide quite the catalyst to the discussion for all you POQ haters/lovers when he chooses to/chooses not to exercise said options.

That's really not stepping out there considering we already know the last raise only covered the next $100 million in capex spend, while the estimated gross capex for Stage 2 and Stage 3 to complete the farm-out is $130 million. So yeah, they may need another ~$9 million or so. But if they need more money to move forward, that likely means the current wells have proven successful. In which case, wouldn't you want them to proceed?

Revise the drilling plan based off now known well conditions. Sidetracks really are not uncommon by any stretch of the imagination. Even for established operators in established plays. Things don't always end up like you thought they were going to be 2 miles below the surface. The fact that they are pressing forward is extremely encouraging. To me, at least.

There is an updated version of this article that actually has quite a few more quotes and details from the Origin GM. While the title is clearly biased the overall article is a little more favorable.

I liked this nugget - "The gas well which struck trouble in drilling should be ready for fracking in weeks."

https://www.katherinetimes.com.au/story/6581599/alarm-over-fracking-well-failure-downplayed/?src=rss