Member Info for OrsonModesto

Havy, feel free to look at my post history. I don’t feel a need to prove myself to you, or anyone else for that matter. I freely share info here because of the guys that have been doing so for longer than I have.

I’m working on being able to provide more evidence, as I would like it myself, but unless my chain is really being jerked, I’m pretty confident that the report is legit.

Not confirmed but it appears there is a mighty flame burning in the direction of our kyalla.

Newt - to add some comments on the paper you referenced, you have to continue to read the "Table 3 – Lower Kyalla SRR de-risking options and opportunities for key identified technical risks to play success."

All of these de-risking activities have taken place since this paper was written. I described in a previous post about all these test (DFITS, coring, etc. ) that had taken place prior to moving forward with he horizontal drilling and completion of the Kyalla. Still not saying this well will be a gangbuster, just that it had been seriously derisked prior to completion.

Here is the paper for reference: https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1071/ASEG2018abW9_2C

Origin is scheduled to provide a project update on the beetaloo tomorrow. Hopefully we will get some more reassuring info than what POQ sent out last week.

https://www.ntresourcesweek.com.au/seaaoc/agenda/?utm_source=deleted&utm_medium=deleted&utm_term=deleted&utm_content=deleted&utm_campaign=deleted&gclid=deleted

Thanks for the reply and good post WW. One thing I'll comment on and the thing that frustrated me the most about the PR was that 500bbl/d figure they threw in there. Knowing that number in of itself means nothing to us. As far as we know, it is just a snapshot in time. It could be a lot, it could be little. Is that rate climbing, or falling? How long has it been at that rate? How much fluid has been recovered? We can't really make any determinations based off knowing that figure. I know tons of wells that come on in the US in the 3-4,000bbls/d range for the first couple of weeks. And even when producing high volumes of gas/oil/liquids can continue to bring up in excess of 500bbls/d. SO long story short, I thought that was pretty amateurish to throw that number in there without any context.

Just wanted to remind everyone of some of the tests that took place in the vertical BEFORE Origin decided to move forward with the drilling and completions of the horizontal leg of the Kyalla, and the high costs that came with it. The data and information they obtained came from some of the most technologically advanced procedures today in unconventional drilling. I am not saying that this guarantees 100% success, but I am convinced we are a long way from knowing this well is a "dud". They just need some time to get it right. This is a new frontier after all.

Our team recently provided:
-Open hole DFIT (Diagnostic Fracture Injection Test) services
-Provided a comprehensive set of services and equipment including downhole DST tools with custom made high pressure packers
-Downhole and surface data acquisition package and surface production equipment
-a mini Surface Well Test package
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/firetail_our-team-recently-provided-open-hole-dfit-activity-6615039611574059008-9J9d

ALSO:

DFIT-Flowback Analysis (DFIT-FBA) provides estimates of reservoir pressure, productivity index and minimum in-situ stress all in 2 hours, and a fraction of the normal cost.
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/behnamzanganeh_new-fracture-diagnostic-test-delivers-tight-activity-6726269436237627392-TD83

I also don't know much what is exactly going on onsite right now other than the flowback. Sounds like the crews have been really scaled down at this point.

Here is a quick basic video that answers a lot of questions on where they are at with the well.

https://oilfieldbasics.com/2018/10/18/production-casing-tubing/

Sounds like they flowed through the casing for a bit, and then based off the results of the initial flow, installed the production tubing sometime in the middle of October, and just began flowing back again at the end of the October. So no test have been completed to date that we know of. Have to clear out the frac fluids first.

Completely unnecessary PR results in complete overreaction in share price. But, hey, almost everyone wanted an "update".

Only thing this NR proves is that once again FOG is absolutely horrendous at PR and IR functions, and things are once again taking longer than expected. Some times it takes a little while for a well to rollover. I hammered on forever about the installation of production tubing when the Amungee well was coming online, and this is just part of the process to get the parameters right to properly flow the well.

From Falcon's press release on October, 2 2020 - Technical Update of Kyalla 117 N2-1H ST2

"Early stage gas flow rates are expected in the coming weeks"

It has been one month since that release. I am not moaning, just stating the timeline in Falcon's own release.

There has been a phenomenal amount of positive news come out recently on the Beetaloo. It just hasn't come from our camp yet. But it will.

Couple quick comments - it could very likely be a good thing that no news has been released as it is quite possible rates are still climbing and why an IP has not yet been captured.

Also, while the Amungee well was right off the highway, the Kyalla well is not. It actually sits more in the middle of the Hayfield station, and would not be as easily seen.

I'd say within 2 more weeks is still a very reasonable amount of time to get news without worrying about it. And who knows with this crew. They may wait to provide a 30-day flow rate as the first piece of news.

Or it could all be going to h-e-double hockey stick........

Geez, that Guardian article is so factually incorrect it is almost comical. I never knew 22.5% was a little under one-fifth. Funny math they have there in Aussie land. If you can't even fact-check your own simple math, I can only imagine the effort put into facts a little harder to check out. Know your facts people.

You could use simple addition from the date they announced they finished completions.

I think it makes sense to assume that Empire's discovery of wet gas in the Velkerri bodes well for Origin's thesis that there is wet gas in the eastern flank of their permits as well, and why that would be the next well drilled if the Kyalla doesn't pan out.

Just FYI - I worked for a long time trying to establish some connections in the NT to get a better idea of what exactly is going on in the field, and I have debated even longer on how much I should share on a public forum. But I have gathered this much, there is no doubt every one on the Kyalla site is being kept under incredibly tight controls. That, and the fact that the Beetaloo is literally out in the middle of nowhere, keeps any information from freely flowing. To get one simple reply from a mutual acquaintance took a lot of work. BUT, one just has to look at the current price action as an indication of what may be happening (even with the petrohunter wall of shares). Also, someone on this board made a very astute observation in a previous post that Origin may be aiming for some sort of announcement at/around their upcoming AGM on the 20th. I am also of the opinion that this is the case if things work out as planned.

I received some feedback that the flow back of the kyalla is looking very good

I sure wish our lowly NOMAD would "put their money with their mouth is" and figure out a way to deal with the petrohohunter shares. Seems like a 5X return should be an easy sell to some astute investor.

The order from the judge stated that the petrohunter shares could not be sold at more than a 10% discount to the current price. I think that is probably part of the issue with selling these off in a block trade.