Member Info for OrsonModesto

Schlemiel - I cant remember if you were around at the time early in during the moratorium, maybe as Mirabeau, but I posted a lot of stuff about Liveris and his Darwin connections. Heck, I didn’t even see it mentioned in this article that he was born in Darwin, and one of his best buddies is Kon Vatskalis, the current Mayor of Darwin. Anyway, I had posted an article I had come across, where Liveris talked about wanting to do something big for Darwin (I think specifically mentioning in the chemical manufacturing sense) once he retired from Dow. But it’s nice to see he is is still pressing on developing onshore gas. Guys like this carry a lot of weight in discussions with government officials.

Around 500 boepd

False, they will need to pay roughly $10 million additional to finish out the program.

"The estimated gross capex for STAGE 2 and STAGE 3 is c.US$130 million. Under the terms of the Farm-out Agreement, Falcon Australia is carried for up to c.A$113 million (~US$80 million) for the costs of STAGE 2 and STAGE 3, equating to c.US$24 million net benefit to Falcon, with Falcon’s net cash contribution estimated at US$15 million, before contingency."

So Falcon's estimated cost to complete the program is around $15 million. They will pay $5.5 million with this recent placing. So around $10 million left to pay. (Not accounting for the $6 million in the bank.)

It's simple math, really.

"Specialised scopes of work for the drilling and completion activities have been tendered and awarded"

Wet - you’re good in my eyes. You have brought a healthy perspective to this board. Nano has as well, at times. In fact, the beauty of this board is the fact that it has stayed pure through all the shiite we have gone through over the last couple years. I have never been a part of a board that has stayed so consistently positive about a stock while recognizing the difficulties that lie ahead. I hope that dichotomy continues as things progress, and the commentary continues to stay civil as it always has...

The Company can confirm that the Bookbuild has been completed and Falcon has, conditionally, raised gross proceeds of c.7 million (c.US$9 million) through the Placing, with Placees agreeing to subscribe for a total of 50,543,242 Placing Shares at a Placing Price of 0.14 per Placing Share. https://www.marke****ch.com/press-release/falcon-oil-gas-ltd---results-of-placing-2019-05-17

Just an FYI, Lauren Moss got kicked to the curb as Enviroment Minister awhile back. Which was good as she was completely inept in this area. The Minister of Environment is now Eva Lawler, who is also the Minister for Infrastructure, Planning and Logistics.

Ok, I’ll bite. Actually, I’ll just use quotes from the same article: “The short-term pain may seem at odds with expectations that several developers are now set to announce billions of dollars in investments for new export facilities. That’s because the medium-term outlook calls for the current surplus to shift into a deficit early next decade, which can only be avoided if projects are sanctioned now.” “Global consumption is forecast to grow 1.6 percent over the next five years, with China accounting for a third of global demand growth to 2022, according to the International Energy Agency. Gas is expected to surpass coal as the world’s second-largest energy source, after oil, by 2030 amid a push to cut emissions.” Prices today don’t mean squat.

The hypocrisy of these three statements is almost comical as all three could be said in direct relation to the O&G industry:

“The existence of the entire live export trade could be gone at the stroke of a politician’s pen. What industry in Australia faces such a threat?”

It is a “threat fuelled by well-resourced activists whose primary modus operandi is to undermine the very existence of an industry that has existed since time itself.”

"we are in the position of stifling potential private investment in a flat depressed economy while this matter remains unresolved by the NT Government.

Been pretty swamped lately so a bit behind on my DD for everything that has taken place lately. I also never really delved into the judiciary system in the NT, so I do not know exactly what all open standing means in relation to the system in place. But Newt's post below echoes my sentiments on this point, and I relay a quote from the Minister of Environment and Natural Resources addressing the issue in the recent legislative sittings:

"This will mean that not only are we future proofing the integrity of the inquiry report in ensuring that these recommendations cannot be watered down, we are also removing any opportunity for legal challenges to decisions required to implement these recommendations."

And from Mr. Kirby:

"The costs and effort associated with people seeking those reviews, and getting them to be accepted, is an impediment going forward. We are confident there will not be any vexatious claims regarding that issue."

I THINK, as Newt said, the open standing review, as written, is specific to whether the legal process was followed for approving any exploration of production permits. So as long as the legal process is followed, as laid out in these recent legislative changes, there is no challenge that can be presented by any party to revoke said approvals. I guess we will see how it plays out.

Nicely done dprussky! I had printed the maps off and did the same thing, but by hand, awhile back. Yours is much more formal...

To WW's comments - My guess is the placement is based on where they have seismic. If you go back and look at the Hess seismic campaign, the eastern and western flanks of the permits were covered extensively but the middle of the permits have some larger gaps leaving tighter areas where Origin would be comfortable spotting an exploratory well, especially in that Kyalla 98 W-1 area. Most of the seismic in this area is from before Hess' 3D campaign.

I also remember reading somewhere about Origin's negotiations with the TO's and how they presented several options to go ahead and get their approval on as many potential sites as possible, and to determine if any would interfere with any sacred sites. Several of these proposed sites coincide with the 3 Velkerri liquid rich proposed sites. In fact, I remember 6 or 7 shown with some of the others in more of the NE corner of permit 98. (BTW, this is a document that I have been looking for again for some time, if anyone comes across it. I can't remember where I found it...)

The toughest thing to figure out is when the EMP could be submitted, but I think this community update (and more specifically the fact sheet linked to it) provides a little bit of clarity, for me at least, in this regard.

The fact sheet states:

"DENR will coordinate agency comments on a submitted EMP and undertake preliminary assessment of the document against the Petroleum (Environment) Regulations and Environmental Assessment Act."

and also

"An EMP is provided to the NT EPA for consideration under the Environmental Assessment Act and the Petroleum (Environment) Regulations"

The Scrutiny Committee report is due 12 March 2019 for these regulations. There is a chance the Scrutiny Committee report could be debated, the bill read again, voted on, and passed at the March legislative sittings. It appears the EMP could then be submitted. I was thinking Origin would not be able to submit the EMP until the finalization of the Water Act amendments. The scrutiny committee report for the water act is not due until May. But the fact sheet makes no mention of the EMP being subject to the review from the Water Act amendments.

We also go some clarity on how long the public comment period would be:

"Any EMPs involving drilling petroleum wells or hydraulic fracturing will also be released for a 28 day public comment period."

So, while I am starting to think the EMP's could be submitted more in the April timeframe, it is still a bit vague. And could mean a difference in starting drilling in say June versus July/August.

One other thing to keep in mind is the Origin has already submitted a "preliminary" EMP for when they got the approval to drill the water testing bores. For anyone that read that EMP, it was clear it already laid the groundwork for a full blown EMP as the regulations developed. So, I am sure Origin will be ready to submit an approvable EMP as soon as they are allowed to do so.

BEETALOO BASIN GROUNDWATER MONITORING BORE INSTALLATION PROGRAM- KYALLA 117
Environmental Management Plan
https://denr.nt.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0006/618918/EMP-origin-beetaloo-groundwater-monitoring-bore.pdf

Yes, that is an interesting one. Although, I can think of probably almost a dozen appointments/hires over the last several months that had me thinking the same thing. For instance, look at who was recently appointed as an NT EPA Board Member - Dr. Vaughan Beck. The same Dr. Beck from the inquiry panel. So now there are two members from the inquiry panel on the NT EPA Board, as Dr. Ritchie is also on the board. The same Dr. Ritchie that is the chair of the implementation team.

As you said, the odds are really getting stacked in our favor to see this thing through.

Agreed in that it is a minor detail as long as drilling gets underway sometime in that June to July timeframe. My July guess is based off the fact that one of the last committee reports is not due back until the May sitting dates to complete the legislative changes to the the water act. There is also a requirement that there will be a public comment period on all EMP’s prior to the minister approving them. So if all legislative requirements aren’t completed until May, I assume there will be about a month delay for Origin to get all the necessary paperwork submitted, plus have the public comment period, then get the ministers approval to begin drilling. So yes, I am making some assumptions, but just how I see it playing out based on the timing of what needs to happen to implement the recommendations.

The Implementation Plan states that all Stage Two recommendations must be completed before any drilling or hydraulic fracturing and stimulation can begin. The water bore monitoring is a Stage Two recommendation so it doesn't appear we could start drilling before then.

At the current pace of the implementation of the necessary legislative and regulatory changes, my guess is drilling won't start until July.

Also have to remember that when the new petroleum regulations are passed, oversight of onshore gas will move to the Department of Enviroment and Natural Resources. Resources Minister role will become solely the promoter of the resources. Which, clearly the train has left the station for onshore gas in the NT, so in this regard I actually think it is a good role for Kirby as he’ll have to get his ETU mates on board. Or he too will find himself in the same situation as Vowles, where if you try to upstage/challenge Gunner, you’re going to get the boot.

Looks to me like Sweetpea has dumped around 30 million shares. Which would make some sense due to the relentless selling pressure the last couple months.

Newt - I really only know what is going on legislatively, as (most) of that is public record. A lot of the other recommendations will be technical specifications/regulations, which will take place within the departments. Of course, some of these technical aspects will come from the legislation that is passed. I have also been frustrated with the lack of updates from the task force. So much so that I emailed them a few weeks ago asking when they would release an update. Got a pretty general reply overall and on timing, but was assured the next update would show "significant" progress. From what I have come across on social media accounts, there have been plenty of people from Origin, APPEA, Santos, etc in Darwin so hopefully they are working with the government and the task force on moving the recommendations ahead.

In another positive development that I don't think I posted about previously, the guy that was the Executive Director of the NT Hydraulic Fracturing Taskforce throughout the moratorium was named the Executive Director of Onshore Gas Development for the NT Government back in May of last year. I am sure a main reason for his hiring is to implement the recommendations of the inquiry, and to see the onshore gas industry succeed in the territory based off the inquiry's findings.

Long story short, while there is not a lot of hard evidence to go off of, there is a lot of anecdotal evidence out there to reassure that everything is progressing in a timely manner. I, personally, am pretty comfortable with things right now in regards to the recommendations being implemented in time for drilling this year.

One important timeline to watch --->The NT legislative assembly meets for the first time this year from Feb. 12-14. A report is due back from the Economic Policy Scrutiny Committee at these hearings on the Petroleum Legislation Amendment Bill, which was read for the first time at the end of last year. The bill will likely not be voted on until the following meeting dates, which are March 12-14. This is the last big piece of the puzzle that needs to completed legislatively prior to exploration commencing.

HA! Mikey doing his best Trump impersonation. Those dudes have some control issues. Anyway, doesn't really effect the regulatory process as everything is being transferred over to the Department of the Environment at the beginning of the year.

Without getting into one of my diatribes about the NT government, I would say this almost positions Kenny boy as a possible early frontrunner for Chief Minister in the 2020 elections. I would venture to guess he gets kicked out of/quits the Labor party and joins Terry Mills in the "new" CLP/Nationals party. Just guesses, but it's getting harder and harder to see Gunner and his ladies winning re-election. And if that happens, we need a strong enough replacement that isn't an anti-fracking party.