Member Info for OrsonModesto

Ah heck, I'll throw one in. Not a lot of dates not picked so I'll pick one of those - March 25th at 12 noon Darwin time.

I’ve noticed the theme of Budget 2018 is “More Jobs, More People, Brighter Future” I refer to my earlier post. Will this government deny an industry ready to invest millions (billions) while preaching the line of more jobs? I suspect they will soon start dropping bombs about tax raises. Will will infuriate every one. Not a select few. Then they willl approve the onshore gas industry, probably right before they deliver their ridiculous budget, projected to be at a massive deficit, on May 1st.

A common complaint I have read from those against, is how in the world is the NTG going to implement all these recommendations into the regulations. Well, let' meet those folks: Victoria Jackson Executive Director Energy, Northern Territory Department of Primary Industry and Resources https://www.linkedin.com/in/victoria-jackson-682a8132/ Victoria Jackson has more than 25 years� experience across both private and public sector minerals and energy organizations. Managing exploration and development of the Territory's energy resources, a current focus of her role is to steer the Government�s petroleum regulatory reform agenda. This agenda is progressing well, with the recent introduction of Petroleum (Environment) Regulations that are among Australia�s best, being rigorous, flexible and outcomes focused. Another key deliverable is the development of a whole of government, holistic energy policy framework, considering the entire energy chain, including renewables and carbon abatement opportunities. Having also led the Department�s input to the Inquiry into Hydraulic Fracturing in the Northern Territory, more importantly Victoria was accountable for implementing Government�s response to the Inquiry and for leading aspects community engagement. And Jop van Hattum Senior Director Petroleum Technology and Operations at Northern Territory Government https://www.linkedin.com/in/jvhattum/ (Coincidentally, a former Senior Project Manager for Origin Energy for almost 4 years.) These are the same people that held the same positions when the Hawke reviews were conducted, and were in charge of drafting and implementing those regulations that stemmed from that report. They are the same people that will be implanting the recommendations from the Pepper inquiry. Structural reform and petroleum (environment) regulations in the Northern Territory Jop van Hattum A and Victoria Jackson http://www.publish.csiro.au/aj/aj15071 ABSTRACT The opportunity for onshore oil and gas development in the Northern Territory (NT) has grown exponentially in recent years, driven by the NT�s expansive shale gas resources in the McArthur Basin and elsewhere. Such resources provide many potential benefits to the territory�s economy, including job creation and clean, cost-effective energy generation opportunities. Critical to the successful development of the industry is a legitimate social license to operate with the community, for which strong environmental regulation is a key enabling factor. Communities must be assured that oil and gas activities can provide ecologically sustainable development, and a transparent, evidence- and risk-based framework is the best way to achieve this.

So Ken Vowles is in Japan and South Korea this week, to communicate "the NT Government�s ongoing willingness to be a trusted, long-term and stable supplier of resources to Japan and South Korea." among other missions. http://mediareleases.nt.gov.au/mediaRelease/25450 So far, we know he has met with Inpex, Japan Oil, Gas and Metals National Corporation, also known as JOGMEC, ConocoPhillips, and some others related to agribusiness. With him is: Deputy Chief Executive - Rod Applegate (who oversees mines and energy, been a director or higher for the NTG since 2005) Executive Director NT Geological Survey - Ian Scrimgeour (since 2006) Director Investment Attraction - Fiona Park (since 2012) These are the same people that for years have been visiting these same companies trying to get them to invest in the NT. In previous years, the presentations very clearly highlighted the immense potential of the onshore gas industry. 2015 http://mric.jogmec.go.jp/public/kouenkai/2015-10/20151016_06.pdf 2014 http://mric.jogmec.go.jp/kouenkai_index/2014/3.%20DotClose_Tokyo_Oct2014.pdf Now, Vowles left on this trip this past Saturday. So he knew/knows the outcome the final report on fracking. Is there any chance that he/they are now telling these countries, as they lobby them to invest in the NT, that they are not going forward with onshore gas? That it is too hard to regulate? That a lot of people don't like it, so its a no-go? Even though his own governments 15-month inquiry reported without a doubt that the risks were manageable? How would Inpex feel about the NTG if the NTG told Inpex that they were not going to support the onshore gas industry, when Inpex has just spent $40 Billion dollars in the NT on the assumption that onshore resources would be available. We know Inpex has been publicly vocal about lifting the naomitorium. Frankly, I think the delay is the result of the NTG using it as a negotiating/bargaining chip for such investments. And towards the Federal government for more money. And for guaranteed support from business, either at the polls or through their commitment to local jobs, etc. We know business is all in on lifting the ban. Will the NTG, whose leaders says "I will move heaven and earth to help local businesses", now reject the business community, who is pleading for them to lift the ban?

"I think his dream is he wants to leave a legacy in Darwin," Mr Vatskalis said. "Something to do with industry and the gas that the Territory has got plenty of. http://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2016-12-10/donald-trump-appointee-andrew-liveris-remembers-darwin-roots/8109616

Which government? We know what the federal government wants the NT to do: http://www.news.com.au/national/northern-territory/malcolm-turnbull-urgers-michael-gunner-to-pull-the-trigger-on-gas/news-story/aa5b697426eb0515faf1a2233f32bbfa And yet, as far as gas reservations go related to the NTG, we have this: Declared that there will be no reservation of gas for domestic use in the Northern Territory, in contrast to contemplation of gas reservations in other states, allowing gas to flow to customers wherever they exist. http://investnt.com.au/investment-prospectus/oil-gas.shtml And: Gunner says our gas reserves can go overseas CALLS from the Commonwealth Government for states and territories to reserve gas for the stability of the domestic electricity market have been ignored by the Gunner Government. Chief Minister Michael Gunner said on Thursday “the NT had enough gas reserved for the next two decades and wasn’t considering a reservation policy.“ https://outline.com/8uayMG And, the NTG contractually agreed with Inpex that if a gas reservation was ever put in place by the NTG, said NTG would have to cover any losses of Inpex’s gas from the Ichyths project.

Can’t remember seeing this posted, but pretty powerful statements from a pretty powerful business leader. Liveris was with Turnbull and Gunner last time those two were in the states. I’ve posted awhile back about Liveris and how he wanted to do something special for the NT as it is his home. He is pretty close with the current darwin mayor/former labor minister Kon Vatskalis. DARWIN-BORN Andrew Liveris, one of Australia’s most senior international business leaders and a former adviser of US President Donald Trump, has reaffirmed his support for fracking in the NT. Mr Liveris has said he believed Australia’s energy strategy is “backward” in relying on subsidising renewables and failing to fully exploit the country’s vast natural gas reserves. He said Australia should “optimise (its) fuel mix” which meant using coal in low-emission, coal-fired power stations before ramping up the domestic use of gas.” “I have no idea why people are afraid of shale gas in NSW and the Northern Territory,” Mr Liveris told The Australian. “I’ve offered those two governments to come to the US and actually see what safe fracking looks like and the benefits, including to the land owner.” Andrew Liveris is questioning why the NT hasn’t already said yes to fracking https://outline.com/4cX92T

Only Beetaloo gets approved. And we here are damm lucky for our fortunate choice in explorers, however that choice came to be.

Sorry to get hopes up, but the cabinet is a bunch of slow readers and lack comprehension skills and still needs a couple more weeks to make a decision, according to Natasha Fyles. All while getting roasted on the radio. I think the announcement will be around or at the COAG meeting which takes place April 20th. Which is also right before the NT budget comes out. They clearly have some more “conditioning” of the public to do. Pretty good stuff in the week that was portion in this link. I think it was around the 10:00 - 17:00 mark. https://www.mix1049.com.au/360-with-katie-woolf/latest-from-katie/75641-litchfield-hotel-owner-exhausted-from-break-in-s

It appears that Gunner and his cabinet will have another meeting with Justice Pepper and the Inquiry Panel tomorrow morning (Darwin time). Maybe just a Q&A session? or maybe they come out together with a news conference that they are lifting the moratorium? The stage has been set after all with the recent news of the SAVAGE GST cuts. Oh, and also the extra funding for to the DENR for environmental assessments and approvals of major projects which will allow efficient and effective environmental regulation and timely approval decisions to help maintain investor confidence. SAVAGE CUTS: Federal Government Slashes $1.4 billion MORE from NT budget http://newsroom.nt.gov.au/mediaRelease/25441 Budget 2018: Extra $2.44 Million to Attract Major Projects and Create Jobs http://newsroom.nt.gov.au/mediaRelease/25432 All from this week: Gunner: �These approvals ensure our valuable natural environment is protected and are important milestones for developments to proceed and progress, therefore the timely and efficient regulatory approvals are critical to maintaining investor and community confidence.� Gunner: �creating local jobs is my number one priority. �I will move heaven and earth to support Territory business during this tough economic period � that is my message to them." Manison: �We know jobs are the key to building the Territory � a good job will keep people here, and a good job will attract people here too � and Budget 2018 will directly create and support thousands of jobs,� Manison: �Today�s Budget 2018 announcement of funding for major projects underscores the importance of private investment in the Territory and recognizes that Government plays a vital role too, to facilitate and expedite these multi-billion dollars projects and developments. Mansion: "the NT budget simply doesn�t have the capacity to offset cuts of this magnitude � around $800 million a year � through increased revenue measures or spending cuts." Manison: �Make no mistake, we are in the fight of our lives for the future of the Territory � it is that serious.�

Gunner was on the radio again yesterday, and had some additional comments on the decision. Starts about the 2:20 mark. Weird how A) giddy he sounds about it, and B) like newty said, you can almost tell he is just spitting out rehearsed political speak. My take at least. https://www.mix1049.com.au/360-with-katie-woolf/latest-from-katie/75520-will-the-govt-tax-property-owners

Edited for easier reading: The design and implementation of a robust regulatory framework is the primary way that the Government can ensure that any onshore shale gas industry develops in a way that protects the environment, is safe to humans, and meets community expectations. Most, if not all, of the environmental impacts and risks associated with hydraulic fracturing and any onshore shale gas industry can, in the Panels view, be effectively managed and mitigated to an acceptable level by strong governance

This is from chapter 14, but I really hope it really resonates with the cabinet: The design and implementation of a robust regulatory framework is the primary way that the Government can ensure that any onshore shale gas industry develops in a way that protects the environment, is safe to humans, and meets community expectations. Most, if not all, of the environmental impacts and risks associated with hydraulic fracturing and any onshore shale gas industry can, in the Panel�s view, be effectively managed and mitigated to an acceptable level by strong governance.

This was an interesting recommendation, and gives us a little bit of timeline, albeit it is from when the moratorium is lifted: Recommendation 16.2 That an implementation framework including details of who, when and how each of the recommendations will be implemented, be completed within three months from any lifting of the moratorium. Gunner did say in the radio interview yesterday, that he has cleared his schedule, and required his cabinet to clear their schedules, for the rest of this week, and only focus on reviewing the final report. He even joked about it being the first time he has wiped out whole days of his schedule to focus a single issue.

Sounds to me the minister for the Enviroment believes the final determination of the report - “the fact that the final report of the Inquiry clearly says the risk of fracking can only be reduced to acceptable levels if all 135 recommendations are enacted” and “The report proves he simply hasn’t told the truth” I actual like the spin on this release. “It’s all the CLPs fault and their regulations were a disaster, but we have a report that proves how to do it the right way.”

Who knows where that comment came from. It has only been stated to this point, that cabinet will make the decision. So, I'll put it this way. Whatever decision is made, they will probably say it was a unanimous decision. Gunner is a bit of a control freak, and always demands that the labor team appear as a solidified front. There is really only one member of cabinet that I worry about being a constant dissenter. But as is usual in politics, she will get something, some guarantee for her faction, to get her on board. But I think that has already taken place for the most part. JMO

Gunner has said in almost every press release this year, his number one priority is jobs. It seems to me this recommendation, along with many others, have given him the green light to go on a major hiring spree. Furthermore, I have been keeping an eye on the jobs posting board for the government, and it seems to me they have already been ratcheting up in areas that could really only be related to an onshore gas industry developing. JMO

Using the alcohol review as an example, there is a very real possibility the final report has been, or will soon be, handed in to the government, and we don't get to see it prior to the government coming out with their decision. IF we go this entire week without the final report being released, one would have to think that this is the case. Pepper has been very clear that the final report would be done by March. FWIW, LTG stated as a matter of fact that the report would be turned in on the 26th; not even as a guess. So, they are either lying again, or did/do know that the report is being turned in directly to the government.

And last but not least, and as I have posted before, there has been exactly ONE referendum that has taken place in the NT since self-government - a vote in 1998 to become a state. Can you even figure out how that turned out?

Oh, and if you are wondering how that poll for the demand for a referendum is going, it is currently at 1,725 votes after over a month. Or 0.7% of the population. Or to be fair, 1.3% of the registered voters.