Member Info for Nige_W

Hi TMT
There is a danger in being overcautious. Any financial advisor wold tell Bill Gates to diversify, If he listened to them he would not have become the richest man in the World.
For me everything about ggp is rosey and now over 50% Port, but almost 140% up so am I bovvered?
Everything down today, but I am up cos of ggp. Just posted a message on nano, which explains why I think I can't go wrong there either.
BoL

Hi TimBob
I sold about 75% of my Builders (far too late), only holding Orig shares mostly bought about 7 years ago. I think we are heading towards a bad time with recession and possible No Deal Brexit, but not expecting that to happen until the Autumn. The Market could anticipate this and drop the price before then, so I am waiting until next year before I will consider re-investing.
Even short term doubtful, when first results start coming out in July, we will see the first affects of CV, before recession...
I appreciate there is still a huge shortage of houses, interest rates lowest ever, and Govt is desperate to avoid a recession - just don't think they will be able to.
BoL

Hi ddubya
I think current Sp is meaningless so not really disappointing.
As botbot said it could fluctuate wildly on news (Merck, new contracts...) but most importantly the settlement with Samsung £0, £1, £2, £3.
If Samsung T/o nano (by buying all shares) we will no doubt get a cash payment and lose our shares, but if a settlement is reached (say for £500m + contract) I reckon nano Sp should be almost 200. That is just thru increase in cash let alone the contract. This leaves a buying opportunity as the Sp increases from 15 to 200, so I see no reason why the price should drop (from 200) after a settlement. It is nothing like 7 years ago cos nano will be a viable profit making company.
Even assuming no T/o and Samsung win case?!, given a new contract or 2. nano probably worth more than 15. This infers no downside and massive upside.
BoL

Hi Bamps
Don't watch property sector, so don't know anything about Segro or Londonmetric. Govt offered to pay for Labour, so daft to refuse cos it was impossible to say what affect CV would have - and still is.
I am sure Profits, Margins and Divis will return to previous levels - just don't know how long it will take.
Don't think Govt should interfere with HB's (H2B or this new scheme), cos it will sort itself out. Just costs tax payers money with probably very little affect on number of new builds.
BoL

I never used to Deal in small companies, though nano not an aim. The sets system means Market Makers not needed any more for big companies - all done by computer (type A deals) or individual or private trades (type O deals). The 1m buy/sell must have been a private sale between 2 people/institutions entirely separately from the market, so should not affect Sp.
Don't know how this affects Aims, cos not on Sets (or if Market Makers still used there).
One thing to remember is that there must be a buyer for every share sold and vice-versa and if I was to buy 1m shares in nano it would go thru as lots of small sells as the price increased, and conversely a sale of 1m shares would go thru as lots of small buys as the price decreased. Hence it must have been a private transaction.
It's not really worth looking at these Trades. Hoping for some news soon and BoL

Hi smartinv
If my analysis is right bdev Sp will fall after psn PreInt (04/07/20) so sell maybe half before that, and buy back to value you sold, before bdev PreFin (10/07/20). That way you could have increased your number of shares at no cost. This is not advice and I'm not doing it - just a daft idea.
I am surprised how well HB's are doing, and would get out when Sp stabilises after PreFin, cos should be before the slump.
BoL

Hi noggers
I have explained why I think bdev the best value but this doesn't mean they will outperform psn or tw.
Another indicator (besides Margin) Cash held by psn and tw decreasing, bdev increasing.
Next results are critical, psn PreInt and bdev PreFin. I expect psn could go down after PreInt while I am hoping bdev improve after PreFin. So I suggest you hold bdev until after PreFin. Not much point in holding for FinRes cos will only reflect what PreFin said, and no Divi.
Of course bad results from psn could cause another Market panic bringing all prices down again.
BoL

Hi noggers
I sold all but my original holdings in Builders (about 3/4), holding aboy 7.5% in cash, and invested the rest in ggp (mainly, and still got great potential Imho), ncyt, itm and a bunch in nano from ages ago, which could be a good recovery stock.
I think you could be right that 10 to 20% inc in Builders, short term, but Recession, No Deal Brexit, could hit Sp's heavily from about the Autumn.
Reason I'm not investing now is I'm doing better out of little Coys above (particularly ggp), and don't have to risk the timing of the next Builders slump, The depth of the slump is impossible to gauge, not too worried cos the profits on original holding vary from 35% to 106% (av about 60%) and will get out if they look like going into a loss.
Next results will be very interesting to look at - Estimated Dates:
psn PreInt 04/07/20
bdev PreFin 10/07/20
tw IntRes 29/07/20
bwy PreFin 07/08/20
psn IntRes 18/08/20
rdw FinRes 03/09/20
Hi Ben
The results above will give us an idea how HB's are coping with CV, but will probably be followed by Recession and/or No Deal Brexit, so even if HB's results good, a slump could follow.
BoL

It got so late last night that I didn't have time to write a summary or anything.
All numbers from LSE shares fundamentals, apart from RelSt from my own graphs.
From the 1st table you can see bdev has more cash than psn and much the highest cash to Mrkt Cap ratio.
From the 2nd table you can see that (besides rdw) bdev has the best asset to debit ratio.
From 3rd table you can see at 30/08/19 bdev up on psn by 122.7 - 83.9 = 38.8%, now 101.2 - 111.8 = -10.6%, or psn Sp has improved against bdev by a massive 49.4% in less than a year.

Incidentally, HB's Sp's down to levels last seen around March 2017.
BoL
One could assume psn sorted all quality issues, which bdev never had (but doubtful), and it cost them nothing to achieve. Second part definitely not true cos psn margin decreasing (as is tw) while guess what - bdev margin increasing!

Hi Screenl
The numbers don't really matter too much - $26 Bn is max possible based on 26 m tv's being sold (as opposed to 14m) at $1,000 each..
Even $450 m would save nano from running out of cash in the short term and justifies a Sp of > 140.
To put it another way I expect a settlement worth over 10* current price and a big contract. Even at current price 15 given STM contract and the fact that nano never had any trouble raising funds, I think the downside is small while the sky is the limit.
BoL

Hi smartinv
Psn has far more cash than tw, which is why the market thinks psn has more value than tw. There is almost no chance any of the big builders going bust, so I don't think the increase in psn relative strength is justified, so I agree tw better value than psn.
But imho bdev and rdw far better value than psn and tw.
Cash as % age of Mrkt Cap:
Psn 5,103, 843, = 10.4%
tw 5278, 630 = 11.9%
bdev 5594, 958 = 17.1%
rdw 1837, 204 = 11.1%
Psn has about a 30% margin which could explain this (cos rest about 20%). The exception is bdev!
Current Assets as % Current Debts
psn 4069, 996 = 24.5%
tw 4987, 1123 = 22.5%
bdev 6007m 1687 = 28.1%
rdw 2549, 760 = 29.8%
Anything +ve good, -ve bad, but all +ve so good. Rdw top then bdev.
Last chart Relative strength when 04/01/19 = 100. 3 dates Max damage to psn (Quality issues) 30/08/19, Max Pre CV19 14/02/20, Cur RS 05/06/20.
psn 83.9, 93.5, 111.8
tw 89.8, 98.9, 100.2
bdev 122.7, 116.3, 101.2
rdw 99.3, 97.9, 89.6
How bdev Sp can be behind psn by 10.6% in is beyond me, after they were so far ahead of them, and why is rdw so far behind?

Think Builders could do well until Autumn but the recession and possibly No Deal Brexit, so not reinvesting until next year.

BoL

Hi perky
I agree with you provided cash has any value. ie £1 Trillion QE must have an affect on that value. Alternative Gold?
Hi ddubya
Critical point is this Court case is in Texas, last in South Korea ($700 m damages). I am quite sure in a US Court damages will be far more than $1 Bn simply cos everyone has been stealing US IP for years and Yanks are fed up of it. Whole point of Samsung advertising was better quality of picture cos of nano CFQD's. A very good case for 26m Tv's at $1000 profit each = $26 Bn damages.
Already they have introduced 3 * rule (if wilful) and they have the power to ban sales in US. The extension to the Court case means to me Nano and Samsung are in discussions and will come to an amicable? agreement. No loss of face for Samsung, we might not even find out what the settlement was for, until next results.
Main point nano can't say anything until a settlement is agreed, and the same applies to the Court case if it ever happens.
Best ME could do is say progress is being made which doesn't mean much (with whom?)
Quite sure a settlement will be made before end of August.
BoL

Ps
Have a look at nano, could be a great recovery stock, They are suing Samsung for IP rights for 26m QD Tvs that have nano CFQD's in them. Samsung applied for a 3 month extension before setting out their defence, which was granted by the US Court (because nano didn't object), until end of Aug.
This means to me Samsung and nano in discussions about an out of Court settlement, or Samsung buying nano.
Have a look at nano board which explains the situation in detail, but simple fact is, if out of Court settlement it means massive damages to nano (maybe £500m +), Mrkt Cap £41m at 14.5, values nano at 185, even without the New contract which Samsung will have to give them. Obviously a take over (buying all shares issued) will cost them more and shareholders get that money instantly, in cash.
Obviously very risky, it is possible that Samsung let this go to Court and win, but even then nano will probably survive - just got a contract with STM (via Apple) to supply IR CFQD's, and possible more new contracts on the way.
Downside not much (at 14.5), upside the sky is the limit.
I am sure you will do your own research and I've been in nano since end of 2013 so very happy to give any advice I can if you have any questions.

Hi Bamps
Just got into ITM and talked to my brother about it (an Accountant). I was worried about their big losses every year, but he said if current assets much greater than current debts (which is the case) nothing much to worry about.
About 50% port in ggp, so don't really want to invest any more there (despite profit 120%). Much happier now to top up itm when 25% up.
Thanks again for your superb advice - despite Brexit and CV (I bailed out of Builders far too late), my Port is not far away from high point.
BoL

Hi bb
Got to admit things looking pretty grim, and you didn't even mention Recession and Brexit Deal (or not).
BofE is talking about QE by printing £1 Trillion over the next year to ease recession. Years ago this would lead to massive inflation, maybe not so much nowadays, but not sure if that is the best answer.
My best performing share (by miles) is Greatland Gold. Traditionally gold goes up in price in difficult times and ggp sat on top of loads of it in Aus. Worth a look.
BoL

Hi Bonzo
I am sure you are correct, no reason to implement a contract if no need to, but the contracts will be there - just needs to be signed if no settlement. ME said that nano will get the majority of damages, which to me infers 51% to 99% of damages, and he knows what the contracts are. The Companies that took on the case would not do so if they thought here was much chance of losing the case (hence nano gets more than 50% - risk management).
Whatever, its going to be massively more expensive for Samsung if it goes to Court, who will also have to pay Costs, and I am sure far more damages if it goes there. Delaying the issue doesn't help cos nano have everything in place, and will only increase damages.
Everything still looks good to me, just getting fed up with waiting.
Don't think FSP was wrong (even if nobody could know the value of nano IP without the court case) cos Samsung's worst fears were realised.
ME has a lot of critics here, and some time ago I said he doesn't have to do anything, cos everything in place, but I think he has managed the situation well.
BoL

Hi SL
In any discussion each party will have its own agenda. I think (hope) ME wants to keep nano independent. Maybe £500 m + a new contract would suit nano very nicely - no financial issues any more, and they can get back to the knitting. Quite sure that the US Court settlement will be far more than that and even after paying off blood suckers, they will get far more than £500 m.
Still think its a better idea for Samsung to just buy nano, maybe for £2 Bn then no future worries about IP rights in EU, RoW… which I hope ME is resisting, but they could offer £500m + contract, if ME happy with that.
Just to complicate things even more, STM and Apple will want to be involved in these discussions - no conflict of interests there, Samsung wants display, Apple IR, so maybe Nano will reform into 3 Sub companies, Display, IR and Rest. Samsung buy Display, Apple (or STM) buy IR, leaving Rest independent.
Maybe it will take 3 months to sort out!
As a shareholder I remain optimistic and don't think the case will go to Court. Personally I would be quite happy for Samsung to buy the lot for £2 Bn = over 700 per share cash, then job done and don't need to worry about it any more.
Very happy right now, profit in ggp greater than loss in nano, and both trade A/c and ISA in profit.
BoL to all holders.

Hi Ben
As an Ex QS, we used to do very detailed valuations of work completed on site, including Mats on site, Mats received but not paid for, weekly Labour costs... but this was for internal use only. Payments depended on stage completions (25% roads...) + a fixed amount per month to cover site admin (cabins, site staff, compound) known as Prelims. So no Init payment - only as work completed.
That was many years ago so could have changed.
I don't even watch Gfrd now - big profits in Housing, Civils could improve as rebuilding infrastructure, but I think it will take quite a long time to happen, particularly with recession and No Brexit Deal (regardless of what Boris says).
BoL

Hi SL
I cannot believe Nano would serve the case unless finances in place, but agree that by not opposing extension they are in serious negotiations. Hope to hear something soon.
BoL

Hi TLW
Surprised Samsung got an extension (to 30th June), from a US Court. Effectively if no reply by then they are in contempt, and will be hammered, which is why I expect a settlement before then. Don't care how big Samsung is, Nano employing US experts, in US Court, who are a very different proposition to a South Korean Court.
BoL