Member Info for Nige_W

Hi Noggers
Nowt wrong with making a profit, but according to my calcs bdev worth 1000+ when Covid, Brexit, Recession over, but that is next year or later.
Just bought some nano at 17, now 19 - not bad. Think they have a long way to go.
Unfortunately only bought in ISA, limit on Trade Deal 17 so that won't go thru now.
BoL

Hi Troubles
Sp now 18 on LSX so don't look like I'm going to get my trade shares.
Someone must know something. Hopefully a long way to go.
BoL

Hi Noggers
Just sold last shares in psn before PreInt, more confident about bdev so holding them, but psn could bring them down in short term.
BoL

Hi Newboy
Just bought some in ISA limit 17 went thru at 16.997.
Also tried to buy some in Trade limit 17 - not gone thru yet.
Looking good!
BoL

Hi Noggers
Psn PreInt around 04/07/20 and bdev PreFin 10/07/20 (based on last year).
Rdw and crst not been very good, so these 2 could be the basis of a sector Reval.
Not very hopeful and tempted to sell before.
BoL

Hi Sl
Nano is not an Aim so Sp determined by Sets. Last trade 15.22 sell, and it says Bid 15.20, Ask 15.98. No idea where that comes from (> 5% spread!)
BoL

Obviously NigWit not got many fans here. I thought his knowledge and research was excellent.
It is fine to constructively criticise management, but whoever is CEO in this sort of HiTec operation (which takes years of research) will find it almost impossible to anticipate delays and issues that will present themselves along the way. As a Scientist ME is well aware of that (as opposed to Accountants), while many of the highflying US Coys have been set up by Tec wizards.
Lack of communication is probably his worst failing, but in recent months due to the court case... he is probably not allowed to say much.
This story is not over yet and I still think could work out very well for us.

Hi BBD
Number of trades decreasing, number of messages decreasing, but not bad news. If I was ME I would just let it go to Court, and object to the extension Samsung requested, so must be talking.
Sp bid and offer sill looking daft, I was tempted to buy some more with a limit, just to see what happened. It is on Sets so should get a price just a little more than bid price (ie 14.7 so limit 15.0), should go thru). I could always cancel it anyway, but not much point, I've got too many. Just have to wait and see.
Still think everything looks good, just have to be patient.
BoL

Hi BottleR
If ggp Sp driven up to 74 that is because the increase was due to the increase in Cash held cos of the sale. Mrkt Cap reflects Companies assets now £441m Ie 74 infers 6* cur Sp, then it assumes sale price £ 2,646m which could be a bit optimistic.
The point is it the value of ggp will increase as a multiple of the cash held, depending on sale price. So Buy price £ 441m then Sp 24.
No different from a person, count your own assets, no doubt a car, some shares, say £500k but forgot the house £ 1m, then total assets £1.5m. Only difference is the value of the sale cannot be quantified until the sale is made, but no doubt you will have a good idea of what your house is worth. Your assets are still £1.5m but don't know what ggp assets will be until the sale, and like your assets they will not decrease significantly, so why should theirs?
BoL

Hi Ben
Seems to me like a fundamentally flawed idea. Why have people been making bricks in traditional method (clay), when it must be far cheaper to make them from concrete? If they have given up with concrete bricks, it's a bit of a Public relations disaster, but I guess the plant could be adapted to make normal bricks at not too much cost.
It would be interesting to know who makes them now. Was this commons and facings?
BoL

Hi Strictly and Levis
Some sort of disaster is already built into HB's Sp's. Whether the disaster anticipated is more or less than the market thinks is the important bit, but I cannot believe it will be worse for HB's than they think.
I am much more worried about recession and a possible No Deal Brexit - hence down to 25% in HB's and expecting signs of that to start soon.

My system is well out of date now cos sold all floats (and all tw), but while your system works on identifying best value, my system only considers short term Sp movement (depending on RNS's). All has become fairly meaningless due to disaster following disaster.
Still think bdev best value now, what does your system make of them?
I've been very lucky with ggp and not far off Pre CV high. My Banker cos I expect Newcest to at least buy their Ops in Aus
(for about double the current Sp).
Also nano worth a look as a recovery stock. Could be worth 10 * current Sp if things go according to plan. A settlement with Samsung should happen by Autumn.
BoL

Hi noggers
I still think bdev best value of HB's, doesn't matter much what the market thinks, cos sooner or later that value will be realised. Just need to be patient. First results early next month, psn then bdev, will be very interesting and could lead to a revaluation.
Obviously they will reflect the affect of Covid19 and lockdown, then the market needs to decide if better or worse than they anticipated, which will drive the prices. I expect bdev results will be better than psn (less dec in profit T/o... so psn will lose more than bdev or bdev will inc more than psn).
It's just a guessing game, after psn results their Sp could half, affecting the rest, but don't expect that will happen.
BoL

Either summits up or LSE system broken again.
Not very helpful but not doing anything anyway.
BoL

Hi WM2020
Cash held is cash in the bank = £630m (according to tw Fundamentals above - 31/12/19).
Obviously they have debts to pay off, so the main thing to look at is current assets £4,987 m less current liabilities £1,123 m giving £3,864 m. So a very rich company. Not too sure how land is valued in the accounts - I know the way changed after the banking crisis.
Hi Strictly
Still here, but sold 3/4 of HB's holdings, left with original purchases from 12/12/13. The reason for this is I see a recession coming soon (and possibly No Deal Brexit) so think best to be out before this happens. Anticipate a big drop late summer or Autumn, and don't think I will reinvest until next year.
Sadly no tw shares left but still hold bwy (85% up), psn (51% up), bdev (43% up) and rdw (23% up). Incidentally bwy by far my best builder (also most profit for completed deals), but they are also the longest held and unlike tw and psn I never held for Divis.
I am about 8 % in cash after buying ggp, ncyt and itm. Ggp has been great for me (135 % up and over 50% Port ).

Could you explain your idea with numbers. Could you also have a look at bdev (most cash, very healthy asset to liability ratio) and no quality issues.
BoL

Hi BTB
Both big trades before 4:30 (ie closing time), but no UT Deal. Sp, also in line with current price, so I think nothing to worry about. Think this has to be a private deal between II's unlike a Buy on Sets (Type A), where the seller will get his sell price (so goes thru as a sell, driving the price up until next lowest seller gets his sell price), or vice-versa.
Not even the Price of the transaction matters in a private sale. If I was feeling generous I could sell you 250.000 at 5p or if you were being generous you could sell me 250,000 at 5p.
As you said Type O transactions have little meaning, Type A's is what fixes the price - still don't know how this works with Aims and Market Makers, but nano not an Aim. Hardly worth watching other than if lots of buys going thru and price going down it implies a big hidden sell has been made (Type A but hidden until after hours, so becomes Type O).
There is no reason for nano to raise money before end of year, by which time everything will be settled, so no risk of dilution.
BoL

Hi bobrad
Personally I think it is impossible for anyone to be able to guess the affect of Covid19. Until it is known I think it would be foolish to start paying Divis again, so I don't expect any Divis until some time next year (when hopefully signs of a recovery).
BoL

"This business is overvalued, hyped up and ripe for shorters. It will all come tumbling down very soon."
This statement of your opinion is worthless without any explanation of why you think this is the case.

Hi BTB
Don't think much chance of an update on legal case cos no need until end of Aug approaching (unless Samsung wants a quick settlement, re Huawei 5G). Don't think nano needs to raise any money until next year, by which time everything will be sorted.
I think now the best choice for ME is simply to wait for the Court case and not bother with any settlement, T/O, (unless an irresistible offer). Think he holds all the Aces now, so why bother with a settlement?
One thing to remember is this is not a S Korea Court - it is East Texas, which will be fast tracked and damages, ban on sales...
will be horrendous for Samsung. Non payment of damages will be contempt of Court, and even if nano only receive 51% of damages it will be far more than a very generous out of Court settlement. 5 US Companies were happy to finance the case, Imho verdict inevitable, so they don't really need to push % age much so nano could get 99% damages.
More probable something between 51% and 99%.
On my watch list almost everything red apart from nano, so I think everything looking good.
No idea where the Sp going short term, but I'm not bovvered at all. Hold all and maybe buy some more.
BoL

Hi anon
Profit on rdw down to 22%. I intend to sell if it gets below 20%. Think it is inevitable it will happen so might be a better idea to do it now, just thought it wouldn't happen until late summer or Autumn.
Never know there could be a bounce tomorrow.
BoL

Hi Ben
I agree with your point but I don't think we have any system like that here, and if even if we did it would have little affect on Sp's. I have said I am mainly out of builders now cos of possible Recession and No Deal Brexit, but I don't expect this to have much affect on the Market until the Autumn.
Impossible to guess how the Market will move, so my way is to anticipate the fall and get out well before that.
If no bad news until the Autumn Sp's could increase until then but about 5 months away, so is the market bovvered? Alternatively, last week was bad news and maybe the market is anticipating this and we are seeing the start of the slump now.
Very interested to see psn and bdev results coming up early next month and the markets reaction to that, but as I have said I don't intend to start investing again until next year.
BoL