Member Info for Nige_W

Hi TMT
I agree with everything you say again. Think they are the best for long term but medium term I think bdev best value, and short term rdw best. Reasons for this are:
Last summer bdev led in terms of relative strength by a long way (cos others had quality issues) and that lead has been eroded for no apparent reason. When things return to normal I expect them to restore that lead.
Rdw has been hit hardest by CV (cos they held least cash), but as HB's going back to work the perceived threat is diminishing (not that it ever really existed). That is why I think their Sp will recover the fastest in short term.

I sold all my float in HB's (about 1/2 total value), at various losses, and invested mainly in ggp (8.5 p now), Av in ISA 3.0 p, Trade 5.6 p - they are 32.8% up this week! But not a missed boat, drilling results out tomorrow or next week, and they will probably be taken over by Newcrest (or at least their W Australia operation) before the winter. Newcrest MCap A$ 24 Bn and Bns cash. Well worth a look.
BoL

Hi Tom
Thinking about getting back into tw yet?
I still think bdev the best value and possibly rdw cos they have been hit harder by CV than the rest. I'm not moving back yet, but good rise today - long may it continue.
BoL

Hi Hoping
I agree with you, given current cash position of (big) HB's it should have little affect on them. There could be a short term slump in house prices, but that hardly matters when they have about 6 months work to complete forward sales (less cancellations).
But the shortage is getting worse in the meantime as nothing is being built. Obviously the longer lockdown lasts the worse the situation will get and the Sp will fluctuate accordingly. I think any HP slump will be very short term and as the Banking crisis proved, if you hold cash (like psn) it hardly matters.
Don't know when the recovery will happen, need some results to show HB's have not really been affected and they are back at work again, then tw back to prev high of 237, but think a gradual increase in Sp could be starting now.
I have made some big losses on HB's trades recently, but not worried cos well up this week due to ggp and ncyt where I moved the money to.
BoL

Hi Graham
No doubt the volatility is due to CV and the news the market hears. I don't do day trading - too risky for my liking.
I still think the market has got it all wrong and builders are far more undervalued than they should be (compared to other sectors).
Hi Tom
Bought at 7.325 - could have done better, but quite happy with that. Think your valuation could be a bit optimistic, but of course depends on test results. Makes me think the longer Newcrest waits to make an offer the more it will cost them, not that it matters much to them.
From my point of view it would be nice if their T/O coincided with builders going North again, and nano / Samsung settlement.
Still hold all Base values in Builders and all in profit except tw which I bought later than the rest. In ISA account all Base values losing money (bought later again). Tempted to sell those to buy more ggp.
Then definitely too many eggs, but my brother (ex Auditor and Accountant) looked up ggp, and so impressed he says he is going to buy some.
Man or Mouse again! Much prefer slow steady, but not the case now.
BoL

Hi Tom
Just sold last Builders float and just bought ggp (no ncyt). Deciding factor was I was over 80% up on ggp, 30% up on ncyt so more room if things go pear shaped. Also I feel far more confident with ggp prospects.
BoL

Hi Tom
I was going to top up ncyt today but didn't cos don't like Sp movement. The logic is simple, on gaining WHO approval no doubt new contracts will follow and be published in RNS's, but this could already be built into Sp.
I'd rather buy ggp, no doubt you have seen article below:
https://www.ii.co.uk/analysis-commentary/greatland-gold-another-aim-success-story-330-ii511351

"We had also heard from Greatland on 1 April that Newcrest Mining (ASX:NCM) had completed Stage two of the farm-in agreement at Havieron (now Greatland 60%, Newcrest 40%). The move immediately to Stage 3 had now taken place “many years in advance of what is contractually required,” notes Primorus, adding, “We believe this speaks volume about the size and potential of Havieron and the surrounding region.” Newcrest has owned the nearby Telfer mine, which has produced millions of ounces of gold, but is nearing the end of its mine life.
Primorus has made a significant return on its initial investment, but it is not selling yet. Why?
First, the company notes that the drilling footprint has “expanded dramatically,” possibly because Newcrest has “discovered significantly more mineralisation outside the previously defined limits,” which could have “a huge impact for the valuation of Greatland.”
“Our view on the end-game (exit) for our investment in Greatland is very simple. In our opinion Newcrest Mining will seek to acquire the entire share capital in Greatland in the near future, possibly just post a maiden resource estimate for a small part of the overall mineralised system. We expect this maiden resource in late Q2 to early Q3 of this year.”
The thinking is that all of Newcrest’s Australian operations, including Telfer, are 100% owned."

Particularly like this bit:
Primorus says:
“We can't see any reason for Newcrest to maintain a minority partner at production level and the market capitalisation of Newcrest at some circa A$24 billion and with billions in cash and at call liquidity, it is easily capable of swallowing Greatland.”

Trouble is I've got quite a bit with them already, but looks a safer topup than ncyt to me. When in doubt do nowt, but think I might sell last Builders float to invest 1/2 in ggp other 1/2 in ncyt tomorrow.
Suggest you don't sell ggp until a T/o (possibly 2 * cur price or more) which should happen before Y/e.
Interested in your point of view, I think HB's could drift lower for at least a month, then time to move back.
BoL

Hi 888Ac
Apart from Sp's HB's have nothing to recover from (unlike ITV, Stobart and BT).
Still got loads of cash, and sales no more than delayed (not lost), so prospects are unchanged.
There could be a small decrease in profits in next results, but plans already in place to minimise that (No Divi…)
No doubt Builders Sp will rocket when they get back to work (tw 237 before CV) and drop in profits will probably be lower than any other sector.
Good idea to get in before they go back to work (just 2 weeks according to Bamps's kid).
A few people here are also in ncyt and ggp - think a long road ahead for ggp, but need an exit strategy for ncyt, think Sp will continue to increase for at least a month as big sales confirmed, but need to watch that carefully.
I intend to buy more, and well up there, so not too worried.
Hi Troubles
See what you mean about our "Govt". Negligence claims could bust the NHS now, so Govt has to change the rules! This simply does not happen in Germany, which has coped better than most other countries in the crisis. We must become more like them and leaving EU is more of a disaster than CV.
Hopefully close to low point now so as Ben said maybe a good day tomorrow.
BoL

Hi Tom
Can't be bovvered wading thru 215 posts on ncyt (on a Sat!) so very happy to read your posts here.
BoL

Hi Tom
I was watching ncyt sp on Friday. It stuck at 400 for a long time as though being artificially held there, until small rise towards end of day. So I don't think Sp will drop below 400, but could be wrong.
Some time ago there was a lot of news from Far East about giving blood from those that survived Covid 19 to those infected by it for the antibodies. Heard very little about that since. If you can test for antibodies you can identify potential donors. Don't suppose the same applies to antigen test, so could still be potential for odx.
Having said all that I don't think we use that method anyway. Should be easy to prove if it works or not.
I also plan a top up on Monday, limit 410.
BoL

Hi Tom
Don't know when we hit the low point, but articles saying more positive things (peak of infections / deaths soon, followed by relaxation of lockdown). I think when Builders go back to work will cause a surge in Sp, but not much point if no materials available.
I've been moving builders floats to aims ggp, ncyt and ygen. Looking at sng, odx and n4p. These are not long term for me (except possibly ggp) and hope to get back to mainly builders before they start working again.
Think HB Sp's will drift lower until they get back to work, but when will that happen?
Exciting times, but don't really need that - prefer slow and steady. It all makes my analysis / system a bit meaningless, but still saying bdev best value now.
I made a plan for tomorrow -- sell 1/2 float in bdev to top up ncyt and buy a small amount in odx. Last float. Probably won't happen cos Sp's will change so much.
Keep well and BoL

Hi Bamps
I watched ncyt Sp collapsing today and topped up at 361, now 435 so well happy. Plan to sell 1/2 at about 480 and repeat (buy back at about 380). Also topped up ggp and ygen. Still lost money this week, but pleased with that deal.
BoL

Hi All
No idea what ncyt worth, and I am 122% up on them now, with that sort of profit I will be investing more cos they have momentum. They have sub contractors building their systems (hence royalties from ygen, gsk...) and approval from WHO.
Last Thursday Sp went up to 517, then back down to 318, today Sp stabilised at 492. I expect more gains but not as much as previously (30% today). The really important thing is an exit strategy ie when ncyt reaches Max. When that happens will depend on News, infections. deaths, vaccines, treatment... but if Sp goes down for a few days, maybe a good time to get out.
One thing is for sure, they are a completely different company now.
BoL to holders.

Hi ilikehb
Besides Graham's point of a possible reduction in House Prices, I think another reason could be a prolonged lockdown as reported by a minister. Frightened the market again.
BoL

Hi Bamps
No idea where Sp will be on close Friday. That depends on the wisdom (or not) of the Market. I see a massive overreaction by the market which is levelling off now as shown by the recent increase in HB prices.
I see no reason why HA or Civils will recover any faster than HB's - they all face the same issues. There may be better times coming for them, but no more than a guessing game. I don't watch any HA Builders or Civils, and unlike the big HB's they generally have a lot of debt, so have to go for contracts at low margins to pay off the debt.
HB's now have the better part of 6 months work to complete forward sales (less a sizeable number of cancellations no doubt), but the shortage is becoming worse when no new houses are being built.

This is no criticism of you, cos I now hold ggp, ncyt, and ygen, which have all performed brilliantly since I got in (far too late!)
The virus has created day trading opportunities, which for the first time I might try to exploit ie set a buy limit and a sell limit on the same day. When this is all over I intend to move most back to Builders, but could be another disaster looming by then. Covid 20 or economic meltdown? Don't know but every other day some disaster seems to happen, but I say again should not affect builders Value much.
Keep well and VBoL

Hi Lancs
Thanks for your reply. I'm in the process of adding new companies to my system, which means that all basic research on hold for now til I get things working again.
As you will see from my prev messages I was tempted to sell ncyt as Sp rose above 500, but then Sp went into freefall until less than 320, so put a buy in at 320, but I was too late and settled at 378. Could well happen again on Tuesday, so will watch closely.
Original tip for ggp and ncyt was from Bamps (who has also tipped ygen, sng, itm, odx and cerp, so definitely worth a look at them).
A difficult analysis is to judge value when no Divi and not much sales (but the same for most companies) while tw sales will be no more than delayed. They remain as safe as houses so basically I don't think it has affected their value much at all. Certainly not by the collapse we have seen, but then a big rise last week. Personally I think a drop of 10% is justifiable but not 40% or whatever it is now.
Even a recession will not affect tw much (austerity didn't), kids getting married will leave home and need a roof. It doesn't matter that they rent a flat or buy an old house - it must end up in a new house sale as the mortgage train unravels.
I live in the North East and infection rate just 0.1%, but don't know how they can calc that when Govt doesn't know how many people are infected, nor how they can calc a death rate. Govt handling of the situation is ****potical as usual, obviously we need more testing / tracing (ie ncyt, ygen, odx).
I had an Injun for Sunday dinner which was great, but now today has become yesterdays tomorrow, but its been cancelled anyway by Govt, so doubt you will get this message. Not too bovvered - I like arguing with myself!
Keep well and BoL

Hi XF-MAN
Probably No Div cos they have said it was cancelled. Even if CV suddenly disappears I suspect Govt would take a dim view if a Divi was paid while Govt supporting employees / subbies. Dim view is probably enough cos I don't think this is a condition on Govt aid.
Sp Dec anyone's guess 5 to 500, depends entirely on CV. Put me down for 271 cos I think I cald that sometime ago before CV (so assumes it is gone by then).
BoL

Hi Bamps
I used to invest in Tech stocks and did very well out of them until the DotCom Bust 2001. Started investing again 12 years later but almost no Tech stocks left (bought out by foreign competition cos they were so cheap). Only Arm left and now that's gone as well, so needed Plan B.
That is when I came across builders as being the best value by miles. I still think that is the case, but even more so now, cos of Cash, Divis… and as long as the shortage of houses remains (at least 15 years!) their prospects are great, so not worried about lack of diversification.
Rather like you I have solid shares (builders) and growth shares (far too many nano but still hopeful there, ggp, ncyt and ygen). I am going to look up sng, odx and your other tips cos I would like 5 or 6 growth shares for diversification since they are more risky.
Now I have very close to 50% solid, 50% growth, but not planned - just the way prices have gone.
Thanks again for your excellent suggestions.
Hi Tom
Thanks for the info, times certainly have changed. When I worked for GW they gave a £50 discount if an employee bought a GW home, as they had done for years (without ever increasing it). When asked about this management agreed it wasn't much so just stopped it!
BoL

Hi Lancs
Welcome to tw board. Not many rude people on here and they don't last long, cos this board has good people on it who won't put up with it.
Working late as usual and graphs are telling me no sector has ever been hit so heavily, so quickly in history. Could be wrong but doubt it. This is far worse than 2008 and Austerity, Brexit meaningless in comparison.
I'm also in ncyt and ggp, (courtesy of Bamps and Tom), just wish I had got in sooner. One idea I had was to watch the number of posts (published somewhere here - I think on Home page) then look them up in detail. Generally I ignore Oil and Pharmas cos too many big players involved, but realised ncyt had a pretty unique and essential product. I hope you never sold any.
I had decided on a plan Monday and sold some shares in bdev to buy ncyt, which I did on Tuesday - now 71% up, Thursday my plan was to buy some more but they went up to 510+ so was about to sell half, then Sp went south to 318, so new plan buy some more with limit of 320. That didn't go thru cos they were on the way back up again. I still think they have massive potential for Sp increase - maybe 500 + on Tuesday close.

Anyway, ncyt and ggp are not LTBH for me, Builders are cos I think they are worth twice current Sp at least. The situation is becoming clearer now (hence tw Sp increase), and how has this changed their prospects? No Sales lost, just delayed.
World Bank and Govts will do their best to avoid a recession, so not inevitable, and even if it does happen people still need roofs.
One thing I have been saying for a long time is Builders are pretty immune to Politics, Brexit, Flu Austerity and Recession.
I look forward to a reply and BoL

Hi Tom
Must have got too involved, completely forgot about Easter, so might have another go on Tuesday, but chart seems to have stabilised.
Can't remember the companies involved but one was developing a treatment for Sars and/or Mers, which was abandoned after the pandemic petered out.
So plan is to hold a small base value after Covid19 and sell the rest (hopefully at a good return) just before this disappears.
Impossible to value a company like this cos all based on potential, and day trading is not my way.
Have a good Easter, and BoL
Ps Any details on Pay it forward scheme?

Hi Tom
Range 517.5 1:38 then down to 318.5 2:04 but not gone thru, I probably put the deal on after 2:04.
That's a shame, but with this sort of volatility a great opportunity. Might have another go tomorrow.
BoL