Member Info for Nige_W

Hi Tom
Been watching ncyt sp going crazy, up to over 500 now 372 so put a buy in limit of 320. On the way back up now so don't know it will get down to 320.
BoL

Hi aspers and Skeletor
Builders Bouncing back far faster than I thought. I sold some bdev to buy ggp, ncyt and ygen Friday. Never seen such a collapse in price but this week:
rdw 29.4% inc, tw 24.5%, bdev 22.7%, psn 20.6% and bwy 19.9%. Can't believe this will continue (nice if it did) cos I just don't see much justification for it.
Doesn't matter too much as long as you get back in before prev high (237 for tw).
BoL

Hi Tom
Just sold some float in bdev (@ 448.9) to buy ncyt and ygen. Haven't looked at sng yet.
That was a major bounce today for builders and could be a counter reaction later.
I'm not buying back into Builders yet, need more positive news on virus, but I don't think that should be long in coming.
BoL

Hi Tom
Ncyt looks interesting, cos we desperately need covid-19 test, but never made a profit and in competition with rest of World. They have a contract with Yourgene (ygen) to manufacture the test system who do make a profit. I'm thinking of a small investment in both.
Nice rise today, but long way to go.
BoL

Hi Wbernard
I agree can't add Divi to Cash, but can add almost 1/4 of profits for this year = about 150Mn = 780 Mn Cash assuming no more sales this year. I find it hard to believe the population of this country would be decreasing if not for immigration, and this will not be stopped (no doubt reduced). I read somewhere the shortage would last 15 more years so not worried about supply / demand imbalance.
Where is the land Bank valued in the accounts? It cannot be at full value cos total assets would be far more than they are. I know accounting policy was changed a few years ago to decrease the asset in case land prices collapse in the slumps, caused by increase in Interest rates, which also caused the recessions, but the recession did not cause the slumps. This theory will now be tested, cos of probable recession and record low interest rates, but has not austerity already proved that?
This does not include selling any of the land bank nor laying off staff so Govt pays 80%, tw 20%, decreasing cost per year to 34 Mn, so I still think tw could shut up shop for 10 years, or until a recovery in House prices. As long as supply is behind demand I don't even think there will be much of a decrease in prices, regardless of a recession. Since no houses are being built now, the shortage must be increasing.
So what sectors are better prepared for a recession than Builders?

Hi Tom
Many Countries new cases are decreasing, particularly the worst affected. We might not have reached the peak yet, but I think we cannot be far off it. Then hopefully the number of new cases and deaths will start decreasing.
One thing is for sure, the World must pool resources and figure out the best response.
BoL

Hi Tom
The worst of the lot Spanish flu only lasted 18 months. Don't know much about it but generally fewer infection in Summer and the virus mutates to become less harmful in time. Not a good strategy to kill the host.
BoL

Hi troubles
What I meant was this version of flu should not be dangerous soon. Could be replaced by Covid 20 next year though.
BoL

Hi Wbernard
I am not an accountant but Mrkt Cap 3,333 Mn, Assets 4,987 Mn of which Cash 630 Mn, Divis, 610 Mn (= 1,240 Mn alone).
Revenue 4.34Mn at 20% profit implies a cost of 3.48 Mn, with Fwd Sales of 2,176 Mn.
These numbers all look fine to me. and must be far better than any other sector.
Main driver of demand is people leaving home getting married and needing a roof - not immigration. Whether there is a house price crash or not (due to recession) doesn't matter to tw cos they can just shut up shop, until things improve.
If last year cost of operations 3.48 Mn reduced by 95% = 174 Mn per year and Csah now 1,240 Mn infers tw could last almost 10 years in shut down mode. Flu doesn't last that long.
BoL

Hi Wbernard
Why are you so -ve about tw? Are you short on them?
I am not going to criticise all your statements cos it would take far too long.
Only 3 factors affect HB's, Supply / Demand Improving, Interest Rates improving and mortgage availability will get back to normal soon. They have loads of cash particularly after stopping the Divis, and basically H2B and recession does not affect any of the above.
I suggest you look at psn and how they easily survived the banking cisis, now tw and bdev in a similar position.
HB's can decrease their spending by more than any other sector, Govt cannot let any of the big ones go bust (due to their actions), and desperately need more new houses to be built.
Austerity (almost recession, after Banking crisis) led to the biggest growth rate of Builders for about 60 years. Is that cause and effect, or does recession matter at all?
Obviously you hold no shares in tw and If you are short you will lose a lot of money.
We have very different points of view but that does not prevent a reasonable discussion.
BoL

Hi JetJock
Imho bdev the best value now followed by tw then psn, and all you mentioned totally secure. Psn has most cash, but bwy and rdw could be better value cos decreased by more (relatively) than the others (cos least cash).
Hi Edwina
Personally I avoid LSE, like crst, so don't know much about them. My main reason for this is Brexit and the affect on Service Sector, (let alone BoJo moving Govt to the shires).
BoL

Hi Bozzy
Completely agree with you. As long as the population is increasing we will need more houses - now none being built, so shortage increasing. The big difference between now and 2008 is that in 2008 most builders had loads of debt, now loads of cash even before cancelling Divis, and Govt can't let any HB's go bust cos they created these issues. Not only that but Govt is paying for layoffs.
So 2 of the 3 factors affecting HB, interest rates and supply / demand are improving, (mortgage availability tightened but only temporary).
Could make people laugh, but the above means prospects are even better than Pre CV highs. This implies Sp will become even more than Pre CV high (tw 237).
Who needs Divis on that sort of return?
BoL

Hi Bamps
There, but for the grace of God, go I. The current lockdown is giving a breathing space to the inadequate NHS, which everyone knew, and I am not criticising the frontline staff at all, they are generally excellent. Funding is inadequate and the way they spend it is inefficient, as with all organisations paid for by Govt.
This disaster will have a silver lining cos Govt has to change. Keep lockdown indefinitely cos Covid-20 on the way, or decide on a proportionate response.
Don't think I am naïve or insensitive.
Yes, total shutdown of all industry will help global warming which is great, except people will start starving, all over the World.
There must be a balance, Global response, to all the issues the World faces now, and isolationism at this time is wrong, (like close all borders). But as Troubles said I'm no expert either.
BoL

Hi wilfie
RNS is a legal document so Postponed, but could be indefinitely postponed. I think psn would like to pay the Divi but that will depend on when things return to normal.
BoL

Hi Owls
I am 66 but not worried at all about catching the virus. 30,000 died of flu 2008-2009, and no special measures taken then.
Now we seem to be able to delay the spread of it until tests, vaccines, treatment... are available which is great.
But lockdown will destroy the economy potentially killing far more people than the flu (let alone the inconvenience imposed on everyone in the country).
Eventually everyone in the country will be exposed to it and either you catch it (by which time there is a treatment), or you are immune.
So I hope lockdown ends soon.
Hi Terrace
I am hoping for lockdown to last little more than 1 month. You must realise that once HB's shut up shop their expenses are very low compared to other industries, and the Govt is spending a fortune in protecting industries and even the self employed in HB. So don't expect 3-6 months and even if that was the case, I think the drop in Sp already reflects the decrease in profits. Also the delay in completions and new houses sold is no more than a delay, ie not cancelled.
From an operational point of view for HB's it would be best to complete houses close to completion (might not be possible) cos security on sites could become an issue.
So in the greater scheme of things, a Sp drop is justified by decrease in profits, but 50% ? When the value (prospects) is almost unchanged.
If you think the Sp could double (even if you don't know how long that will take), it looks like a good investment to me, but I'm not saying the Sp will not drop lower, but it doesn't really matter. My original plan was to top up in May/Jun when I expect good news, but will keep under review every week.
Hi troubles
When I said more positive news I was not referring to Govt announcements, rather Aus, Sweden and Far East (antibodies), besides testing, vaccines and treatment methods. Even in the Cold War there was great cooperation between academia throughout the World, and never better than now, despite Trump.
I saw an interview with Brian Cox FRS (not Dr or Prof any more) when the interviewer asked him about Trunp's idea on global warming. His reply was something like the consensus of Scientists throughout the World is that human activity is causing it. ie Fact, nothing more needs to be said, but nobody (and particularly Trump) believes experts any more.
BoL

Hi Troubles
I think we could be reaching a turning point soon, due to more optimistic reports which could lead to a change in market sentiment.
BoL

Hi troubles
Swedish response
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/why-hasnt-sweden-gone-into-lockdown-over-coronavirus/ar-BB11XO8D?li=BBoPWjQ&ocid=mailsignout
Note About the best prepared country in Europe to handle the situation, yet no lockdown... and less cases than most of Europe.
BoL

Only Monday but closing prices (according to my system):
psn + 3,6%, bwy + 3.1%. tw - 1.7%, rdw - 2.2%, bdev - 2.6%.
These large movements seem irrational to me, proving again the Market hasn't got a clue.
Psn most cash (but most problems) then bdev (no problems), then tw (some problems). No doubt a great time for Day Traders, but I suspect they lose as much as they gain.
Fwiw I think bdev has the most value, then tw, then psn, but if disaster (built into all their prices) not as bad as the Market thinks, then bwy and rdw could be the best value.
Hi Manin
Govt's are destroying the Economy and how many lives are they saving in comparison to those they are destroying? I'm not sure if the policy of delaying the time you get CV is of any benefit.
At the end of the day, "Was it all worth it?"
I'm OK, plenty Bog Rolls, Chippy still Open, need to take my car for a drive to keep the battery going, but don't meet anyone inside or outside of household, nor in the car, club, pub...
I hope this starts a discussion cos I think Govt's gone too far.
Freedom and BoL

Hi idont
Samsung new ($11 Bn) factory on hold til case sorted. They are totally committed to QDot tech, to get 1 up on LG, Chinese...
Samsung have not said anything (cos they can't) but running out of time very quickly to make a settlement with nano.
The risks are just too big (banned from selling tv's in US - to begin with, cost of damages - up to 3 * as much if wilful and Chinese could get hold of nano IP and ban Samsung from using it).
I appreciate the research done by Troubles... on the timing and implications of the court case, and expect news very soon.
Certainly ME is no mug and will take them for every penny? he can get ($1 Bn damages + contract to produce all Samsung Dots via Dow, Merck or their own facility - then no need for Sale).
BoL

Hi Tom
Now Sp less than 50% PreCV high (237). So if/when things return to normal potential is over 100% increase in price.
Don't know how long it will take, but a couple of other ides.
Sell now at a big loss (don't have to worry about CGT for a long time) and invest in small companies that could benefit from CV. You could be lucky and get one which flies. but remember in terms of vaccine or cure there will be thousands of companies in the World working on this and very few will succeed. So I think it is better to concentrate on disposables (masks, gloves...) Don't know of any yet, but a risky business cos you know 100% will be mad on builders (eventually), so you need to make more than that on the Companies you invest in.
Will have a look at NCYT.
BoL

Hi Bamps
I'm sure if tw T/o decreasing they would start building for HA's, used to build Council houses years ago.
CMO said "some" restrictions "could" last for 6 mnths - nobody really knows and media jumped on that, cos better news.
There could be a slump in sales and all kids live at home another year, and immigration stops, but I doubt it. At he end of the day Sales only delayed, Govt help for companies in difficulty, even help for self employed tradesmen.
No doubt it will affect the Balance Sheet, but that applies to almost all companies, only builders less cos the demand will actually be increasing.
The Sp has almost halved, so Imho more than built into the price.
BoL