Member Info for Nige_W

Hi Tom
Fwiw I think it is important to keep everything under review. There could be a bounce at any time as people realise the current Sp is ridiculous. I think the low point could be May Jun, but won't be much lower than now, cos by then new cases should start falling (cos of summer).
Also small rise on Fri I think has no affect on Sp movement tomorrow. I think a change in direction needs a few days positive movement and even then move back cautiously, cos there could always be more bad news following it.
BoL

Hi Tom
Just about all trading and Sp setting, is carried automatically by computer (Type A trades), so no need to suspend trading, but that doesn't mean they can't if they decide it's got out of hand, as has happened in US a couple of times recently.
Can't see the market being suspended for long (hours or a day or two), so shouldn't really matter.
On a more positive note tw forward sales should keep them going to the summer, then maybe a dip in sales until Autumn when hopefully a vaccine and return to normal.
Are you moving back in yet?
BoL

Hi Inthedark
I realise my last post could offend some people, so I reply to clarify my point.
We must do whatever we can to limit the number of deaths. My point is this must be a proportionate response and the disruption caused to most peoples lives by the Govt response to the virus is not.
As for the stress caused to the NHS, that is entirely due to lack of investment by the Govt, whilst letting the Admin costs spiral. MOD employs more people than RAF and RN combined.
I imagine the disruption to peoples lives will also cost lives, let alone the damage to the economy. I am not a supporter of Trump nor US Health care system, and think we can find better systems in EU and Aus, NZ.
We don't know enough about the virus to predict how many deaths there will be, no doubt your numbers are right 1/2 million which is more than WW1 and WW2 combined for UK. But cannot believe 80% infection rate, and no doubt the virus could mutate to 100% death rate. Won't need any new houses then.
Agree with you about 2008 crisis, Gordon Brown said he was going to stop the Boom / Bust economy, and most unlucky it happened on his shift. Inevitable anyway and I think he handled the situation very well.
Don't know the best solution, could be delaying spread of virus so NHS can successfully treat everyone, but is the disruption this causes worth it?
Don't know how Builders are working now, used to be employed as Labour only S/c, so effectively self employed. I heard Govt is now helping the self employed, so might not need to migrate on Hols to Laos or wherever, where it is very cheap to live well. My little daughter went on Hols there years ago, and said it was great. I now have 2 Granddaughters first is about 18 months, second 3 weeks old who we have never seen.

Anyway, I remain optimistic for builders even if the disruption causes a decrease in sales. The sales will only be delayed until this issue is sorted. Hopefully by the Autumn there will be a vaccine, and the panic becomes History.

BoL

Hi BENBUILD
Cannot believe the doom-mongers on this board, builders will stop building, house prices will collapse, and builders going bust again.
One thing is for sure, all Govts are in the process of creating an economic disaster, and far more people could die from that than flu, besides the inconveniences.
At the moment BoJo seems to be trying to delay the collapse of NHS by decreasing peaks into several smaller peaks (from the graph I saw the area of smaller peaks was greater than the big peak). Why can't the media and Govts just accept the fact that some people will die from this, but most won't, as always used to be the case.
Anyway everybody knows NHS is unjustifiably expensive (cos of total mismanagement) and it could suit BoJo to use this to let the Yanks handle it, with his US Pal.
I'm not panicking and like you if I had any spare cash, I would be investing in Builders.
BoL

Hi W13Ken
Not investing any more yet. I really need to be sure that things are improving to borrow money to invest. If I had any spare cash I would be investing now, though easy to argue it should not make any difference.
Incidentally, bwy the only builder left where I am still in profit on held shares and made the most on completed deals with them, but I have held them longer than any others.
BoL

Hi Troubles
One thing most people seem to agree on is that it will last a limited time.
Say 1 year before everything returns to normal then Sp returns to prev high (237), so if you buy now you can sell in 1 year at over twice the price and almost 20% Divi on top of that.
Don't know if we have hit the low, (but nice bounce today) and it really doesn't matter if you can make 100% in a year.
As long as the population is increasing we need more houses, regardless of sales now. If builders stop building it just means we will need more later.
Personally my plan is to top up if definite change in direction of Sp or May Jun when I expect an improvement, about the same time as BoJo said. That is purely coincidence, but I think at least he listens to the experts rather than sacking them like Trump.
BoL

Hi ddubya
Cannot believe how your ideas change overnight. Now Loam buys nano and leaves share holders with nothing? Where does that leave RG? Or to put it another way absolutely impossible. It is in both Loam interest and RG to get a settlement, whether by FSP or Samsung Court case. I see absolutely no case that nano need to raise cash in short term (ie before settlements) when the potential returns could be so great. If I was a banker I would lend them £100 or 200 k and am sure RG could.
RG could own Nano soon and I expect that could be more of a threat.

Hi Cdl1
I am sure you realise this is only temporary, just don't sell. To sell hoping for a continued decrease in price is very risky.
Fwiw I think tw worth almost 500 now and will definitely hit prev high of 232 next year. The market hates builders and marks them down big time for the slightest concern (ie Austerity then Brexit), none of which affected Builders at all.
How many times does the Market need to be proved wrong before they learn anything? I cannot answer that, but it does present great opportunities.
BoL

Hi wotafellah
Every year we need ? thousand new homes to house kids leaving homes and immigrants, even if they are not going to buy them. People will move from tiny flats to bigger flats to small houses to new houses, so the demand remains about the same, and there has been a shortfall for years. Doesn't matter if they buy or rent, they all need roofs.
Incidentally, my first example was wrong, if I buy a house, so have to sell mine, if the last person in the chain downsizes and buys my house no new house is needed, but if a kid (leaving home) buys my house a new house is needed.
So fundamentally swapping houses (or not) makes no difference. The demand is driven by kids leaving home and immigrants. (Regardless of Politics, Brexit, Flu and Recession).
Current restrictions on movement... could have a temporary affect on new house sales, but don't expect it to be much say 5%, but HB down by 60% or more. And as I said even if new house sales decrease to nil it doesn't matter much to the big 3, they stop building, sit on their cash and land bank and wait for an improvement (as Psn did during the Banking crisis).
BoL and there is no need to criticise my pals who work in the industry and no doubt will have a far better ides of what is happening within it than you do.

Hi Ben
I agree with you but even if wotafella is right does it really matter, when the big 3 have so much cash. Just wait for the market to change then start building again.
Spanish flu lasted 18 months, so can't say for definite but if Covid19 the same, back to normal in about a year.
Can't see you being out of work and BoL

Good post Skeletor
I will try to give a reasonable reply.
Suppose I was offered a new job and would have to move house. I would have to sell my house to buy another one, and if I don't buy a new house the owner of the house I buy will have to but another one and if he doesn't buy a... until someone buys a new house. Anyway not going to happen cos don't want a job.
Every kid who leaves home to go to University has the same effect. He/she might rent a flat rent, but the people renting that flat will have to rent another one and so on until someone buys a new house.
So despite confidence of potential buyers being worse than it was, the shortage will remain cos of people having to move, and the only solution is to build more houses (which will sell). This is why I don't think the number of new sales will decrease much (unless the population starts to decrease or more people start living in the same house).
If you take this view and number of new houses decreases by say 5%, you could expect a decrease in Sp of 5%, not 60% or whatever it is now.
Recessions do not decrease the number of houses built, Interest rate increases do, which cause the recession.
BoL

Hi Graham
I have explained my point of view many times and can understand how flu and recession affect the leisure industry and travel sector. What I cannot understand is how flu and recession affects the shortage of houses
If 100,000 short before flu recession has that number changed at all - if so why?
BoL

Hi ddubya
I think Samsung is extremely concerned - $11Bn factory on hold - compared to that Nano settlement is chickenfeed, but of course if Nano win the case they cannot build it. Imho definitely engaged in FSP as well, so a finger in both pies (conflict of interests?) Don't know how Court case works, when a decision will be made or FSP and date of settlement, but I do think things are on the boil and we should hear something soon (well before nano runs out of cash).
Just imagine the implications for Samsung if Chinese get hold of nano and nano win their case. Samsung have gone for CFQD,s big time (unlike LG) and will have to pay Chinese IP rights while in competition with Chinese Tv producers.
Only fly in the ointment is if a new Tech (Oled + CFQD's or whatever) makes nano IP redundant, but cannot believe any new CFQD Tech is so different it will not be infringing some of nano's 350 patents, and even then nano still have their court case, damages, and for all CFQD's made by Samsung so far etc.
As I have said 2 or more bidders are left and 2 or more have been rejected or pulled out, Why would they pull out, if they could match the latest current provisional offers?

Now the big question, are you a man or a mouse. Griffiths is the main man cos he makes decisions on what he believes (or knows), but I don't. Not bovvered, cos as far as I'm concerned nano could be worthless, but to increase profits by buying at 6p is a risk I do not need to take. So I am the mouse.
BoL

Hi terrace
Don't know why tw is borrowing anything when they have so much cash in Bank.
Tw might have lost 60 % value since 20th Feb, but my point was should they have lost anything, or are their prospects that much worse? If so why?
Hi hellyeah
Bkg are in the process of a major pay back to shareholders. Probably a good idea delay given circumstances. Tw hold the cash now to pay shareholders in Jul, so unless a major slump in sales or mass cancellation of forward sales, I see no reason for them to delay or cancel special Divi.
I agree hold on to cash for now cos no sign of the bottom yet. I am waiting for Sp turning point and/or good news (decrease in new cases or vaccine). Don't expect to top up until May / Jun.
BoL

Hi Graham
Slight exaggeration. What I meant was if you buy at 105 and Sp returns to high point before crisis 232 or whatever, your investment will be worth 2.5 times more than your buy price. Certainly will be if you include Divis.
BoL

Hi TMT and Wilfie
Basically I agree with everything TMT said, but am even more optimistic. The company can't go bust simply cos of cash held. They were cash rich during the banking crisis with the result that they weathered that storm easily, while tw and bdev almost went bust.
Their prospects might not be as good as they were (cos of Brexit, Flu and Recession), while tw and bdev also have plenty of cash now, but what is certain is they will survive it better than most Builders. It is noticeable that rdw and bwy are down more than the big 3, no doubt because they hold less cash.
Now for the difficult bit - Prospects.
Fundamentally only 3 things affect Builders performance, supply / demand, mortgage availability and Interest Rates. Nothing has changed apart from decrease in Interest rates, so prospects should remain good.
You must remember austerity which followed the Banking crisis (almost a recession), led to the fastest Eps growth for Builders ever. I expect demand will remain far greater than supply for the foreseeable. However we haven't seen such a combination of Brexit, Flu and Recession before.
The most worrying to me is Flu, cos Govt is closing down the country to slow down its spread. Hopefully new cases down in the summer, and it shouldn't last more than 18 months.
As far as I'm concerned this is a massive overreaction by the Market as usual.
BoL

Hi terrace
No doubt you are correct, but tw has no need to borrow anything.
BoL

Hi greedo
Sp doesn't matter at all to tw, other than they could be taken over. If Sp goes down to 1p are they bovvered? It makes no difference to their operations, 20% margin, £836 m PBT, £546 m cash in Bank...
If you buy now @ 106 and tot divi 18.7 pps, Yield is 17.6 % - a bit better than most banks!
Now for prospects (bearing in mind Brexit, Virus and Recession).
Builders performance based on supply / demand, mortgage availability and Interest Rates. Only change here is interest rates are going down, so prospects improving!
Sooner or later the market will realise this and Sp will bounce, but not holding my breath. I have no intention of topping up until clear reversal in Sp movement and/or some good news re vaccine, decreasing new cases.
One thing is for sure, virus will only last a limited time (Spanish flu 18 months) then recession will also end. So if you can wait 18 months you could get a 2.5 return (based on last high) + Divis.
BoL

Hi Basscadet
Been thinking about the wording everyone seems to criticise. Don't think Companies we are engaged with means anything different from Companies who are interested in a TO. Could have helped if they said still talking to 5, having rejected another 5. That way the interest would have been proven to be great, and 5 have either pulled out or been rejected cos nowhere near the other 5 offers. No formal offers have been made until an agreement ie conclusion of the process.
I still think a generous offer from Samsung to clear the Court case, with Royalties to Nano for IP on proviso that Nano not for sale anymore is the most probable conclusion. Nano won't need to be for sale with that sort of money and a big contract.
Hope this ends soon, and if so I could give some money to the kids and maybe have enough left for a new car.
I remain optimistic and still think I will do well out of this share regardless of current price. Up today a bit, and find it hard to believe speculators and the big funds have so little interest.
Hi Troubles
Beauty is in the eye of the beholder so subjective. Money is not and depends on potential so easier to value, but IP probably the most difficult of all to value. So the Market has no idea of nano IP value but the bidders will know.
I still have the faith and BoL

Hi WiganW
The recent results have shown Builders are doing just fine, so see no reason for Govt help. Tw Cash fund means they have no need to borrow anything to pay Special and still have £Mn's in reserve. Forward sales are at record levels giving about 6 months guaranteed work, but as Ben said there could be increased cancellations, but don't expect it to make much difference.
CV and even a recession should not make much difference to the supply / demand imbalance, so I think their prospects remain good.
I completely agree with you the cure is worse than the illness, but compensation could lessen the blow. Very difficult to help all small businesses that will be affected. Just got a new Grand daughter (1st March) that me and wife cannot see.
Hi Troubles
Seems to me the Govt is trying its best to stop the total collapse of NHS by delaying the peak. That could be the best method, but if you are going to get it you probably still will. Que Serra.
BoL