Member Info for Nige_W

Hi BBD
Buy then short is just a guarantee of profit. If RG shorted all his shares, it infers he is happy with getting his buy price, but since he didn't, it infers he thinks the price will go far higher. Picked up a few bob on his short anyway.
Don't know why anyone is interested in what RG is doing. What matters is the outcome of nano case against Samsung, if it gets that far, and what the Chinese (or Apple...) value nano's IP at.
BoL
It would be nice to know when the dates will be.

Hi Owls
You are correct, but when they are not good value is when the Companies other fundamental are poor. The big Builders fundamentals are excellent, (Margin, Cash, EpsG…)
This is flu, not the Black Death, so really don't know what all the fuss is about, and flu becomes less dangerous as the summer approaches. Spanish flu killed about 100 times the number of people than the Great War, but only lasted about 18 months.
Some people might lose their jobs (no doubt travel related) and global recession possible, but this does not alter the fundamentals. Psn survived the Banking crisis easily cos they held so much cash (as do bdev and tw now).
Only 3 factors affect builders fortunes - Mortgage availability (should not change), Interest rates (could decrease cos of flu) and Supply / Demand (shortfall of new houses set to remain for a minimum of 15 years).
So nothing has changed for builders prospects other than they are about 15% cheaper now.
Fwiw I think a Per of about 20 is justifiable for builders (given fundamentals) which is a Sp of approaching 500. Not that my opinion matters, the market decides that, but they can't go bust (cos of cash) and quite happy to wait for a slow revaluation.
BoL

Hi Tom
Prices still not updated. Just updated my system and Sp movement positive after their system went down, but as your article infers they will be down again on Monday. How low can they go?
Particularly since I think Builders are immune to the virus.
BoL

Thanks for that Johnson
System knackered again since about 4:20, for 2nd time today.
I think this week has been my worst ever for shares. Of course I've not lost anything cos haven't sold anything.
The global heat wave in March will get rid of coronavirus and then back to normal (I wish).
BoL

Hi MrBWM
Just a hunch, but if the premium is so low why bother pursuing the idea?
Never made a profit is true, but have always been able to raise capital whenever they needed to because of their potential.
More importantly, both situations (IP infringement and sale) costs will be met by the companies who are dealing with the case until a resolution, so should cost nano nothing.
ME is no mug and I think he will make sure we will get a decent deal. Hopefully IP payment from Samsung followed by a sale to whoever, or not cos sale might not be necessary. $400 Mn will keep nano going for a long time!
BoL

Hi Troubles
I didn't just mean epidemics, but any economic downturn, due to price of oil or whatever. Traditionally Gold and Utes are the safe havens, but I think House builders should be included, (as does the US Market). Demand still high and will remain high, no way interest rates going up and banks happy to lend - ie no change.
Can't stand Trump but agree with him the fuss created by the media is out of all proportion. Its just another type of flu, of which there are hundreds. It is also a new one, but all the others were new once. Millions of people are killed by flu every year so 0.1% by coronavirus is not very significant. (Not too sure about the numbers).
As with all types of flu the incidence should decrease as the summer approaches and hopefully there will be a vaccine by next winter, but I do agree the critical time to contain it is now, then as the summer arrives hopefully we will get back the 12 1/2% we've lost (which we shouldn't have anyway).
BoL

Hi Terrace
I explained why I thought Builders should nor be affected by the Virus and of course the market determines the price. The market is not always right, a simple proof of that is the dotcom bust when all our best Tech stocks were bought out by foreign competition. Two (or more) markets cannot have different values for the same company in a global market.
In US Real Estate (closest thing to Builders), decreased by less than any other sector (apart from Utilities), no doubt because that market thinks the virus will have little affect on them.
Given the fundamentals I think Builders Per's (and so Sp's) should be about double current levels even before the 10% drop this week, which is why I am invested here.
Builders should be regarded as a safe haven from the virus.
BoL

Hi BBD
If RG values the company at 25 there is no way he would have such a big holding. Nano board would not be talking to anyone now if offers less than 50. $400 Mn values nano at a little above 100 and that is the low limit of damages. I expect considerably more.
But that is just for the IP infringement, the bidding war is in progress. Samsung cannot let the Chinese get hold of Nano. No idea where this is going, I think Samsung must make a massive bid for Nano before the bidding war concluded, but think nano will reject it and wait for the sale.
Only issue is if Samsung can prove no IP infringement, but even then they are in a bidding war. The Chinese and maybe Apple... would love to get hold of the IP, and would any employee of Nano want to work for Samsung. (given their IP record).
I think nano will sell for far more than anyone is even guessing now.
BoL

Hi Helena
Hope you are well and great to hear from you again.
Exit at 223, now 210 so looks like a good opportunity to me. As my post below infers, this is not a crisis for builders. Results solid and Imho Per should be about double current level (implies Sp of 420 or more), but Sp could drop even further, so all a matter of timing.
BoL

Hi Terrace
Global Economics does not affect demand for houses. A commonly held misconception is that builders fortunes dependant on the Countries Economy. Only 3 factors affect Builders fortunes, Supply / Demand, availability of mortgages and Interest rates.
All previous Building slumps (except banking crisis) occurred when the Economy was in a bad way, but this was due to high interest rates. Interest rates are not going to go up in this new crisis, so won't affect Builders.
BoL

Hi Bamps
Floods are predicted to increase in the future. This is a Govt responsibility and they have no real organisation to handle it. Besides flood defences, building should not be allowed if the area liable to flooding (or, at least until flood defences are completed).
This is far more important to builders than coronavirus (which has driven my builders down by about 8% this week). Has tw lost a single sale due to the virus?
Builders are a safe haven from the virus, as noted in troubles link (in US Utilities and Real Estate least affected Sectors by the virus).
The market is as clueless as the Govt.
BoL

Hi Troubles
Think 18 months is traditional time including trials on mice, monkeys... Expect it will be fast tracked (if you are dying no doubt you will be happy to give the cure a chance). See:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pandemic#Influenza
Terrible affects on populations many years ago, but I think we are far better prepared for this now (and particularly the Chinese).
My 5 builders down about 5.5% this week, probably about the same as ftse 100 loss, yet in US Real Estate down far less than other shares. Don't know how coronavirus will progress but suspect another overreaction by our market as usual.
BoL

Hi ILikeHB
Everyone seems to assume that the end of H2B will decrease the number of new houses built. I don't agree cos total demand does not change (shortfall 1 M homes now, 15 years to catch up). The people buying the new homes will be home owners (not 1st time buyers, who probably cannot really afford them anyway). So less defaults, think it was a bad idea to begin with.
Don't think it is a choice of Divis or Growth, Divis nice but I don't think growth will decrease much below 10% whether they get rid of H2B or not.
BoL

Hi TMT
I missed your point that you were only explaining the possible Sp movement rather than the value. As you say a buying opportunity, but as usual I'm all in. Been planning on creating a held float for a long time, but hate selling when thigs going well, and obviously won't sell when things not going well.
Hi Troubles
I was also planning to use funds from nano sale to set up held float, but think I need to forget about nano, cos no way of knowing when this will happen. So need a new plan. You were right, certainly no bounce today.
BoL

Hi TMT
Think you are being over pessimistic. The reason for my optimism is that I believe Builders are worth far more than the current valuations, and if they go even further down in price they become even more undervalued - the difference is the important thing.
My last post explained why I thought coronavirus will have almost no affect on Builders (like Politics and Brexit), so creating the sector as a safe haven when things are going badly (like gold or Utes in olden days).
3 of the points you made are assuming a pandemic which I don't think will happen. Temperatures are improving and drugs being tested (on there way).
Two of the other 3 points refer to market sentiment, which is usually wrong anyway.
Leaves Yield competition. If any sector should be hit by coronavirus (and decreased global trade) it will be Banks, not Builders. Incidentally bkgh giving back £1 Bn to shareholders over next 2 years and tw and psn FinRes due later this week. Could have the same idea!
Drop in Builders today totally unjustified Imho, and think Sp improvement tomorrow.
Hi Troubles
From your message (marketwatch) did you notice the least affected Utilities - 1.16% and Real Estate - 1.34%. So hoping for about a 2% bounce tomorrow. Maybe the cloud has a golden lining - think ggp on a roll again.
BoL

Hi Troubles
Don't know the answer, but am sure it means long term prospect are good for builders. All Sp's (I watch) down today apart from ggp, tw down a bit more than other builders, so must be more susceptible to coronavirus.
I appreciate decreased trade with China will create problems for the World economy, but how does this affect builders prospects?
Builders are a banker and should be a refuge sector when things go bad, which is why they deserve a far higher Per than even PreBrexit levels.
BoL

Hi jplay
Completely agree with you. Samsung have to buy Nano and will cost a lot. They need to make a settlement (with Cash) to clear the Court case, and make an offer on top of that for the IP, in the bidding war with Chinese (and possibly Apple).
An $11Bn factory on hold is not a good idea - if it was to open what sort of profits will that make?
Or, to put it another way I think Samsung must settle the court case first and really no idea what ME will settle on. Then no need for a cash call, and with that sort of cash there is no need for a sale.
Unlike Sirius lots of potential bidders for Nano who are prepared to pay a huge premium.
But who knows?
BoL

Thought I'd change the theme!
Hi Sunset
I have no doubt that fixing the problems will not be achieved overnight, but it is in progress and the FinRes due next week will show how they are achieving this. Maybe margin and profits down a shade but should be in line with PreFins so no surprises there. Main point of interest is how they are managing the changes, which I think could lead to a boost in Sp.
Also tw FinRe due, who were addressing similar issues and from their PreFins maybe more successfully. Time will tell.
Strange that Imho bdev and tw most undervalued builders now yet underperformed this week comparatively.

Building issues sorted (usually) very quickly, so nothing like Historical failures of Banks etc. Psn biggest Builder by Market Cap, has most Cash and highest Margin and pays the biggest Divis - that makes my gut feel good!
BoL

Hi Sunset
I hope you have read TMT's reply and looked up his Ref. What is current news is what has just been published, but could be years old, and you need to qualify "bad stuff surfacing daily" with some evidence.
FinRes due next week when we will no doubt be updated on their progress towards improving quality and customer service.
As an investor in psn I am not supporting them at all. You seem to be under the misconception (like exstatex) that to invest in a company helps them.
To put it another way it makes no difference to their accounts at all (no more than swapping the debt from initially banks to investors) - only concern for the new CEO is we can fire him, along with the Directors who agreed last CEO bonus (all done).
Good idea that you look up the fundamentals - Company floundering? Just look up Margin, Divis and Cash held.
Bol, but please do a little research before posting.

Hi Troubles
Hsbc has upgraded all my builders, tw to 270 so things looking good.
Nano is some rollercoaster - down 16% today, but still 12% up for week. With that sort of volatility you could make a lot of money day trading, but not my way.
BoL