Member Info for Nige_W

Thanks ddubya
At least 2 companies still in bidding process, so don't think there is a lack of interest. The companies that have been rejected from the process obviously couldn't match the offers of those that are left, so I think big offers already made.
Don't believe Covid-19 can affect the process with teleconferencing now.
Also FSP (Formal Sale Process) I think implies the Company is for sale, not bits and pieces of it. However Samsung could want display related IP, Apple IR IP, which could cause the delay. Chinese have their own agenda.
I don't think current Sp is any guide at all to the value of nano. Could be worthless (but still 2 or more bidders) or could be worth many times more than Sp now.
Samsung case is a bonus which I can't see them losing. If settlement is $400M what will that make nano Sp?
I also hope for a settlement soon (to free up resources). Suggest you have a look at builders cos Imho should not be affected by CV nor Recession, yet Sp's have halved.
BoL

Hi Basscadet
Stands to reason that if less than 2 ie 0 or one, bidding process would be over, so must be 2 or more.
BoL

Hi Flavours
Thanks for the reply
Tw almost went bust in 2008, Sp down to 4 and a complete disaster, as you say.
BUT
That is History and the circumstances now are completely different.
The cause of the slump was bankers were not prepared to lend money for mortgages, not the case now.
The reason tw almost went bust was they had massive debts then, not the case now - they have loads of cash and a massive land bank. In 2008 they still had to pay debt interest even though almost no profit. Now, no doubt they will make money on the cash held.
Besides Mortgage availability the other 2 factors affecting builders performance are Supply / Demand (no change) and Interest Rates (decreasing).
Having said all that, I think we are heading for a major recession (unless Govt can somehow ease it), and so many small businesses are under threat, demand could decrease a little (but just a little, certainly not enough to make much difference to the 15 year shortfall).
So, fundamentals and prospects remain excellent, Sp ridiculous.
BoL

Hi Flavour
Tw Sp has almost halved in last couple of weeks, and while I admit it could go lower the value of the company remains unchanged (at almost 500 as far as I'm concerned). The point here is do you buy at 100, 120 150 or whatever when they must be worth at least 230, cos had that value before the crisis (which will pass).
You never replied to my post about a possible recession and how that affects builders, which I was a bit disappointed with.
Hi Andy
I hold shares in psn, bdev, tw, bwy and rdw. All down by similar amounts (% wise), but Fwiw Imho most undervalued Bdev then tw, psn, bwy and rdw. First 3 have most cash so less issues given a disaster, but last 2 could be more undervalued if no disaster (which I don't think will happen).
Besides that the biggest (psn) have had worse quality issues than the rest and just lost their new CEO again, so could be risky. Tw had quality issues but seem to be sorting them, while bdev never had any.
Rdw have lost their Chairman, ex CEO, Founder and biggest share holder, Steve Morgan, last time he left Sp went South. Bwy far more boring, just plug away doing nicely without problems.
I recommend you get into all 5 with a small investment in each and top up if one is doing better than the others. Timing is not critical given the Value (ie about 4 times current Sp's).
What I have said is very general, but I have graphs for everything and can explain things far better from them.
Welcome to Builders - only place to be, and look at Divis and prev posts on this board.
BoL

Hi JBongo
Either I am totally crazy or the market is.
What has changed over the last 2 weeks during which time nano gone from 30 to 6.7?
Still have 2 or more companies involved in takeover and still have case against Samsung, where settlement (for Korean Uni) was $400Mn. Expect Samsung settlement to be more than that cos Korean Uni had less significant IP compared to Nano, and what will Chinese bid for nano tech?
Critical point nano Sp dragged down by Panic selling by the Market, yet CV has nothing whatsoever to do with the value of nano. Nano value entirely dependent on the sale and/or Samsung settlement.
If Samsung offers $400Mn settlement for nano (provided nano no longer for sale), for damages and a contract for more CFQD's made by nano, dow or merck, that is a massive amount of cash to a company only worth £19Mn now.
They still have resources for 1 more year before cash call, and will cost them nothing for court case or sale process.
So I think bargain of the century now - if I am right that is great, but like you I'm not investing any more there, cos safer bargains emerging elsewhere (have a look at Builders, should be a safe haven but not according to our market).
My issue with Govt's (and the media) is there massive overreaction to this fairly minor event, Spanish flu killed far more people than WW1 (many millions), new strain of flu 2008 to 2009 killed 30,000 in UK, yet how many people will be killed by Govt reaction, (like Pub Managers suicides...). My son in law works for a lighting company that does public events, all of which have been cancelled. He has 2 kids now, no work, which due to restrictions I don't know when I or our daughters Mam will ever get to see her.
Just have to be patient, and I've put new car on hold, (making the situation worse, so recession getting closer quickly).
BoL and hope nano works out OK.

Hi Flavour
Banking crisis stopped banks lending for mortgages causing fall in house prices. The recession did not cause issues for Builders - the banks did.
Demand for houses remains far higher than supply, mortgages still available and interest rates decreasing. So no issues for Builders (even if a recession.)
BoL

Hi Tom
Thanks for he link, so you are having the same problem?
The people you refer to don't matter in the greater scheme of things. When I was with Geo W the sales Dept would calc the price they could sell a property at, by valuing all similar properties in the area. This is why the larger picture is important.
An old story was a rich guy wanted to buy a house for £ 1 Mn but couldn't sell his own house cos the buyer couldn't sell his own house. He traced the chain back to a terraced house which couldn't be sold, so he just bought it cash, and all the other sales went thru.
So even if a student wants to rent a flat that leads to a new house sale, after the old client moves out and rents a bigger flat and the last client buys a terraced house and...
Hence my idea that H2B does not lead to any more new houses being sold al all.
BoL

Hi Graham
Cos the Market is stupid !
BoL

Hi Tom
Tradespeople already have homes, so don't affect supply / demand. Every year ? million people living at home and immigrants, want to buy / rent their own home. This is where supply / demand imbalance is and is not going to change.
Share prices not updating here again, logged off and back on - no difference. Got prices from London Stock X and things seem to be improving (except tw). Anyone having the same problem?
BoL

Hi Tom
Agree, massive affect on Sp and that things could get worse. Imho it doesn't change the value of tw cos assets not changed and prospects not changed.
Difference is now factor of 4 ie MrkCap £ 4 Bn, value £ 16 Bn.
Hi Flavours
Why should sales tank? The shortage of houses has not changed, and even if they do it doesn't matter much to Tw cos of cash. Just stop building as psn did in Banking crisis.
BoL

This is total madness. Tw have only just published their FinRes so what has changed, other than Sp halving.
Hi minjin
The Sp has absolutely no affect on tw accounts, so won't affect the Divi Low Sp means tw could be bought out (by Chinese?)
Tw have about 6 months work from forward sales and demand still far greater than supply, so prospects remain good.
Not buying yet though cos don't know how low this can get. Plan to but May Jun.
Who said "the Market is always right"?
BoL

Hi Troubles
Not bovvered at all cos don't need to sell anything. Need a new car but that's on Hold.
That is an interesting point, I am not spending (bad for the economy) so a recession could well be on the way, but even that doesn't matter much to builders. People need roofs over their heads, car sales might fall but not demand for houses and the imbalance will take years to clear (regardless of Brexit, Flu and Recession).
Just sent a message to Strictly on bwy board. It explains my point of view a bit better regarding crisis.
BoL

Hi Strictly
I'm still all in so have made massive losses. Can't anticipate things like this.
No way I'm selling anything, cos they will recover, but the media love to report disasters (which could make them worse than they really are). I'm with HSBC who let you borrow up to 50% of your Trading A/c, (at very low interest rates) and tempted to do that soon.
As you say timing is critical and (despite what the media is reporting) this could happen fairly soon. Sars vaccine is being tested and results look promising (no need for testing on mice, chimps... cos already done) and new vaccines in development, but about 6 months away (not 18 months) cos of new testing methods.
So we need a vaccine and a decline in the number of new cases and deaths. As we get closer to Summer both should decrease, then the big question is are we prepared for next winter.
Doesn't matter much, so my idea is to borrow about half my limit to invest around June, depending on the above, hold until around Sep, and review then.
I don't think Politics, Brexit and Flu (or even a Recession) affect builders value much at all (now undervalued by a factor of 3, so bwy worth about 8400 now, Imho). Or whether you get back in at 2500, 3000 or even prev high of 4100, doesn't matter much, when they are worth 8400. Just don't move back in too soon.
Most other countries regard Builders as safe havens in bad times (like Utes), but not our Market.
Hoping for an improvement later today, but won't start investing until +ve news.
BoL

Ps
Working late again, doing graphs. I cannot believe the recent collapse in Sp and think even the Market must realise this has gone too far, so hoping for a bounce later today. I think it was 2008-2009 that 30,000 people died of flu, Shock horror, 20 have now died of CV, but don't know how many have died of ordinary flu.
As Ben and Troubles have implied the reaction to this is probably worse (in terms of lives lost) than the virus itself.
Worst possible case 50% population dies, so half the houses in the country up for sale, so no new houses needed. Tw liquidates itself and its assets go to share holders (£734 M + Land Bank + Buildings, Plant and Equipment. Not that they will be worth much).
This will not happen, but illustrates the overreaction, 20 deaths as opposed to 30,000 deaths 2008-2009 = 0.06%, and 30 M = 0.00006% or something = SFA. So why are Govt's destroying our lives?
BoL

Hi Owls
Each to their own. Personally I don't like the momentum idea cos it's reactionary. I used to only invest in Tech stocks (until they all got bought out by foreign competition, cos of our daft market). I started investing again in 2013 when I came across builders, whose fundamentals looked so much better than any other sector.
Builders are safe as houses cos of cash held and margin. Even during the banking crisis psn survived easily cos they held so much cash, now bdev and tw also have loads of cash.
They are less susceptible to Politics, Brexit and Flu (even if the market doesn't agree with me there).
Also down a lot by not too bovvered, cos I don't need to sell and only a matter of time before they recover.
BoL

Hi Troubles
Thread WTF from Noah could justify a bounce on Monday - Banks and Travel up, but too early to invest IMHO, cos things could get worse. All depends on Mr Market, his misconceptions and how Potty he is feeling on Monday.
BoL

Hi ODD
"Builders don`t do well in recessions."
Only 3 factors affect Builders performance.
Supply / demand - No change, Mortgage availability - No change and Interest Rates - Decreasing.
Apart from the Banking crisis there has not been a Builders slump this century (despite austerity).
Last century slumps cyclical dependant on Interest Rates (which also caused the recessions). More recently (during austerity) builders EpsG was higher than at any previous time.
BoL

Hi Troubles
My point is fewer Builders should get CV than most other workers cos they are outdoors and generally more spaced out. No real way of knowing how bad this can get, but doubt it will have much effect on number of houses built.
Also Builders hate being laid off (due to weather...), so will be reluctant to self isolate, but this could be a two edged sword.
BoL

Hi onedaydave
Tom is totally honest and replied in best faith. I agree with him - don't know where the bottom is for Builders, and we both realise that a message here will have absolutely no affect on the market.
On his advice (originally from Bamps), I got into ggp and have done very nicely there.
Many people would regard me as the biggest ramper of Builders (I proclaim Sp should not have decreased at all despite flu and possible recession) and tw worth almost 500 now.
But as you say it doesn't matter what we think, Sp's depend on the market, so you have to guess what it thinks. This doesn't mean they are right. Also, if you look at previous posts you will see my justification for this.
Seems to me you know very little about Builders and base your ideas simply on momentum. A far better idea is to find a sector (based on fundamentals), study it in detail so you can make decisions based on knowledge.
Builders have been unpopular for years, but Imho are now worth 3 times current prices (based on fundamentals and a reasonable Per of 20).
BoLbut don't insult my Pals

Hi NoahG
Cos the market is incredibly stupid! I keep making the case builders are immune to coronavirus and recessions so Sp should not have dropped at all.
BoL