Member Info for Nige_W

Ps
Some very interesting charts from TMT posted on psn Board:
https://twitter.com/CapitalPmh/status/1228986729023053824?s=20
https://twitter.com/CapitalPmh/status/1228986729023053824
https://twitter.com/CapitalPmh/status/1228986546461839361

HI greedo
There could be a stimulus which boosts Sp, but that is just politics. I don't believe H2B affected sales at all, cos it didn't affect supply / demand. Bkgh have significantly increased Divi (to get rid of surplus cash, and keep share holders happy), which also boosted their Sp. Psn and tw might do the same (don't really need that huge pile since no Corbyn Govt).
Brokers are reporting they think the (comparatively) poor performance of LSE is about to change, so will watch carefully, cos I don't hold any Lse house builders (but regard bkgh the best).
Hi Troubles
Nano going great, but given up reading the 1000's of messages (like ggp). On quick glances it seems nano will win their case. But if that is the case (Samsung and the rest banned from making CFQD Tv's without license fees + damages to nano), they are in a monopoly situation. Then different rules could apply. Also (but improbable) Govt could ban the sale (if to China), cos of defence issues. At best they are allowing the crown jewels to be sold off again.
So I think if a further big increase in Sp, then a good idea is to fix a sell point (decreasing cost to nil). For me at 35 av I could sell about one third at 100 decreasing cost to nil and hold remainder for settlement.
I have no idea what will happen, what would help if the dates of buyout and court case settlements was known, particularly which is first. I imagine buyout first, which management could simply reject (wait for court case), leaving us high and dry?
Think buyout at 200 minimum (about $750 Mn). Also think ME driving too hard a bargain, should never have come to this, and the same applies to Apple.
BoL

Hi ddubya
Obviously the court case is critical if it gets that far, but I expected strenuous denials of patent infringement if Samsung thought they had any chance of winning - not the case as far as I know.
Samsung $11 Bn CFQD factory on hold until no doubt a result is known. Just how desperate are they to buy Nano and equally, how desperate are the Chinese - to wipe out Samsung from tv market, (besides IR sensors).
If nano IP value is $ 500 Mn, the sell price will probably be far more given the bidding War that is going to follow, or after DD everyone figures nano IP worthless, or brand new Tech (by whoever?) is replacing nano Tech.
Don't think the last 2 cases apply, nobody would be talking now in first case, cos no reasonable offers, and new tech will probably take years to develop.
I think Samsung wants to get a settlement before the court case (damage limitation). Just hope it is settled soon, cos I have far too much money committed to nano which I could use elsewhere.
Who can produce CFQD's if Nano win their case, but that could create a monopoly, which could create problems.
If it works out the way I hope I can retire again, else older and wiser.
Bol to long termers.

Hi Fira
Don't know (nor care) why drop in May. News dries up, big players on Hols, people like me getting out cos Sp usually dips then...
Just looked thru my graphs and May drop most apparent last year - not so apparent previous years, but could be due to Brexit overriding it.
I have not decided yet whether to anticipate it (sell late April) or wait for the signs.
BoL

Hi Troubles
Broke my own rules again and bought some at 4.72, increased av to 2.82 profit 75%, which is good.
Unfortunately in Trade a/c av is 5.21, which isn't!
Looks like another breakdown in relationships with Nano suing Samsung. Don't suppose it will get to court, but now I think Samsung must buy Nano to get the IP. Imagine if the Chinese got it - they would sue Samsung for a fortune, and that would only be the start. Samsung's $10B factory on hold (there's a surprise).
Don't think bad weather will have much affect on builders. Not too bad where I am (just 2 bins blown over), but about 50 miles South, York and the Ouse flooding.
BoL

Hi Fira
Think FinRes is 25/02/20 when they will announce all dates re Divis (and amounts). FinRes should be closely in line with PreFins so should not affect Sp much. FinRes will include a prospects section (threats and achievements) which will hopefully detail quality improvements that could boost Sp.
I agree Sp could improve towards XDivDt, but Sp 3247 and if Divi 125 (same as last Year) - that is only 3.85%.
BoL

What do you know about psn? All you are doing is expressing your own opinions, obviously I disagree with them, and don't want this to degenerate into tis tisn't, so I suggest you give us some facts.

Hi Fira
Usually Sp drops by the amount of Divi on open after XDivDt, so the question becomes how long does recovery take after XDivDt. In the case of psn I suspect it will be short cos FinDiv (11/06/20, 110+) not that long after IntDiv (05/03/20, 125) so many holders will simply reinvest the 1st Divi increasing the 2nd a little (then drop lasts longer).
This idea is supported historically by Sp movement, also the drop in May - up to 10%, (which applies to all builders). So my idea is to pick up Divi then sell on or before drop and buy back before 2nd Divi.
Sounds good anyway, just need to watch Sp movement carefully.
BoL

Hi Troubles
Nano situation just gets more and more complicated. Can't see any results soon.
It seems to me that Samsung Must buy Nano to get rid of IP issues while Chinese Must buy nano to get access to CFQD's.
A fair price for IP might be $250M, but with 2 * Musts anything could happen.
Money in ISA cleared today - was going to top up ggp until drop in Sp at end of week, but bouncing back again today. Think I will leave decision until tomorrow (NigRule 1 - when in doubt do nowt).
Funny, the 2 most undervalued builders Imho are bdev and tw and both down a little today.
BoL

Hi ILikeB
Int Div & FinDiv should be announced 25/02/20 with FinRes. Expect 125 Int Div and 110 + FinDiv, XDivDts about 05/03/20 and 11/06/20, again announced with FinRes.
BoL

Ps
Strong Sell? Obviously you have not even looked up the fundamentals.

Since you are not a shareholder in this company and so have little clue about what they are doing, why do you post on this board? Just fancied a Rant?

For the Info. Doesn't matter much til nano sold and a new budget probably before that.
As the previous discussion has shown the rules are ridiculously complicated, while BoJo has been talking about clarity.
Don't think that will get rid of many loopholes, such as Tax Havens and money laundering, when all I want to do is give my kids some money (while minimising CGT and Gift Tax). Why is that so difficult? I have already paid tax on all that money!
I don't even get sent a tax form to fill in, so I don't, but still do all the calcs. Bit worrying about sales to go into ISA, but if CGT allowance £20k and allowance £12k (hence £8k Profit liable to CGT), maybe better idea to just keep very quiet.
Set up a company and Bank A/c in Jersey, make the kids and myself directors, so they can take wages, expenses from the company, whenever they want.
As an Ex Computer contractor I had my own company and you (could then) make a lot of money out of expenses. I had a pal who filled in the football pools and paid with a company cheque, so I said you can't do that, and she just replied "It's a Company Investment."
All is madness.
Anyway, I think bdev and tw the place to be right now, until May.

Hi WiganW and Troubles
Intrinsic Value quoted was 351 (not 251) and don't really know what Cost of Capital means when they have so much cash in hand. If tw went broke tomorrow I think the what I was referring to was PBV - Price to Book Value or what value the Liquidators could achieve, so seems to be two entirely different things.
Only 1 way to get rich - spend far less than you earn. Heart not spending it any more, so giving money to kids.
Anyone know how to avoid CGT and Gift Tax?
BoL

Looks to me that Samsung need Nano (besides keeping Chinese Out and possible IP infringements), and Chinese need Nano just as much (after domestic cadmium ban). I reckon Apple will also be there cos of their investment in Nano, so looking good.
Possibly a joint Samsung Apple offer, so after due diligence at least 2 major parties involved and the longer this goes on the better, cos if no decent offers this process be over already.
No idea what the price will be but I think an absolute minimum of 50 and maybe a multiple of that.
Think current Sp has broken 20 cos last of the bottom pickers are now out. Long termers like me might have averaged down (I bought some at 10p so over 100% up on them, but can't sell cos increases average of the rest.

Hi Johnson
Two numbers jumped out at me, Intrinsic value 351 and earnings growth of 5.1%.
No idea how they calculate IV (if the company goes bust is that what is lef) but hardly matters if the company is not going bust. I assume this means the fair Sp should be 351 or more, which I agree.
5.1% growth seems low to me (given the demand), and expect (hope) it will be more like 10%+. 5.1% consensus broker forecasts? Over the last 10 years they have been consistently wrong.
The critical point to me is what is the justifiable Per. I think I calcd 285 if Per returns to PreBrexit levels (which I think is justifiable since Brexit has had no affect on Builders - nor Politics, Austerity...), but I think PreBrexit Per's wew too low anyway.
Impossible to find a company outside the sector with comparable fundamentals. The article was written 10/01/20 when Sp 196, now 230 so things very different. Per about 10 now, but if you regard justifiable Per of 20 then Sp should be 460. Main point, they can't go bust, pay big Divis, and demand far greater than supply, so a banker for me.
BoL

Hi Tom
Just bought tw from rdw float (sold yesterday). Not worried about publicity - these things happen. Looks a good buy to me cos tw up slightly less than rest this week. Bdev still going well buy already at max (50%) float there.
BoL

Hi Bamps
Had this problem years ago. Also caused damp walls (cavity gap decreasing due to wind pressure). Brickies had to use cavity laths (don't know how long that lasted).
No worries, Act of God, and applies to all other builders.
BoL

Ps
Just got my activation code so trading again. Sold float in rdw and bought ggp. Going to use the rest to buy tw tomorrow. Sold Isa Float in rdw which needs to clear before I can top up ggp.
Suspect todays drop in ggp due to profit taking, I got in at 5.2 so already in profit there (5.35).

Hi Tom
Sorry for causing the confusion. This is my own restriction - no more than 25% of port in any single company (particularly an aim). Daft rule anyway - does that apply to cost or value? Must have read it somewhere. Just 7% cost in ggp but 20% by value (in Isa).
BoL