Member Info for Nige_W

Hi Tom
Usually Sp heading North at this time of year. It could drop below Cur Sp, but barring disasters, don't think you are going to get them much cheaper.
Isa money just cleared so doubled my (very small) holding in ggp.
BoL

Hi Troubles
Ceilings are a deceptive concept in a lift, it has one but in a few seconds you could be hundreds of feet higher than you were. From Sp movement it is possible you can make an estimate of end of week price (barring disasters), but hopefully a driver is pushing the price up (Revaluation of Builders by the Market). That is the lift, but could be a very slow one!
Doesn't really matter to me cos tw should be about 550 (and all other builders a similar increase), but the best idea is to invest in value.
Still move a float about between them, which I reckon could inc profits by up to 20% over Ltbh.
BoL

Hi Col
Building is Not Cyclical any more. Besides the banking crisis (100 year cycle) there has not been a slump this century.
Psn survived the banking crisis better than any other builder (cos held net cash) and now has far more cash.
Much more important is fixing Quality issues.
BoL

Hi Rawson
One way to calc Sp is by deciding on a justifiable Per, so Sp = JPer / CPer * CSp.
Builders are massively undervalued now, but no doubt this will eventually be realised and the JPer will be reached.
Just find companies with similar fundamentals (Profit, Margin, Cash, Divis) to tw and look up their Per's. Trouble is you will probably not be able to find anything similar!
So, my (conservative) estimate is 25 / 10 * 213 = 533.
Even if it reached that price tomorrow, I would still hold cos I would argue that Per should be more than 25 (despite Divis decreasing to 2.5 % - still > 10% for me cos av price 160).
Not going to happen any time soon, but why sell when tw so undervalued.
BoL

Thanks Bamps
Sxx Sp increased from 3.7 to 5.5 = Inc 49%, pretty generous, now 5.4.
When confirmed I will delete them from my watch list, and another one bites the dust.
Shame, some time ago Anglo owned Boulby Potash, not far from Sirius Ops.
Who set up Sxx, and how much have they taken out of the Coy, when they no doubt knew it would fail?
Probably get into trouble for this message again, but doesn't really bovver me, too much at all.
Different song ending, "Anyway the Wind Blows." Bet you can't think of both, or all 3?
BoL

Hi Troubles
The Optimism was caused by BoJo becoming PM as opposed to Corbyn. Whether that is justified or not doesn't matter, the market thinks less risk now and why are we valuing builders so far behind all other Companies in terms of Per? Their fundamentals are so much better!
So hopefully, a major revaluation of Builders is in progress (but will take a long time). Price 212 , Eps about 21.4 so Per about 10.
On another Board (bwy I think), somebody made the point that if builders were in line with other companies, their Per's should be about 15.0, inferring a 50% inc in Sp = 317. Some time ago I said that a return to PreBrxit levels of 13.0 infers Sp of 285, but also that the fundamentals of builders are so much better than Ftse100 (or anywhere else), that justifiable Per for builders is 25.0, infers Sp of 530.
Doesn't matter very much, cos they will remain undervalued for years, so we can keep on picking up massive Divis, while growth stabilises at about 10%.
I have now decided chasing Divis doesn't work, and chasing Sp growth is far better. Last results show tw doing well and psn still sorting themselves out. Think good idea to get into bdev before IntRes (05/02/20), but I could be wrong again.
BoL

Thanks Troubles
Tells me everything I want to know - reckon it will either collapse or be saved.
Worth keeping an eye on if saved, but don't see much payback even if saved, Anglo will pay maybe Sp + 30%, Govt loan better option cos no takeover and in long term it could flourish. Completely different from nano.
That's why I put the question here, so I could get a response from someone I know and respect.

Btw, Just found out bdev not publishing PreInts any more, IntRes 05/02/20 (according to LSE) which I think should be good. Already have 45% float there and 18% up on float (bought 25/11/19 at 672).
According to my very speculative analysis, if bdev Sp increases by 5% after IntRes, tw should increase by about 2 1/2 %, = 5.3 so Sp 217.7 then, but the general trend is +ve, so 5.3% more than Sp on 05/02/20, (barring Bombs).
Cold but good walking weather. Little wind and sunny. Hope you have some good walks.
BoL

Anyone any opinions here?
Personally I think Govt cannot let them go bust (Northern Industry, and a change in emphasis), and Anglo on verge of buying them.
Always kept out cos tunnelling, shafts... usually costs far more than expected, and no guaranteed resources. How could they plan this without guaranteed finance?
Can't be bovvered to read thru all the posts, but could be an opportunity, bit like Nano (but much more hopeful about Nano.)

Hi terrace
When Builders subject to the whims of Govt (re Interest rates) they were cyclical and risky, so deserved their low Per's then, but this is no longer the case. I see no reason for declining margins cos, as you say, nothing much is going to change. The one risk you identify is politics, but this does not affect the 3 crucial factors for builders, Mortgage availability, Interest Rates, and Supply / Demand. So I remain optimistic.
BoL

Hi Bamps
Think you are right about 200 barrier.
Sold a few psn to buy ggp but have to wait for that to clear before I can buy ggp, just hope it doesn't go up too much in mean time.
Best of luck with Nano. I feel sure we will not be disappointed.
BoL

Hi Bob
Given the fundamentals I would argue PE should be about 25.
Expect it will reach 13 eventually (about PreBrexit levels), but convinced it will remain undervalued for a long time.
BoL

Thanks Conno
No doubt Insurance is steady away and safe, but my method is to invest in value. I regard builders as being worth about 3 times their current Sp so not looking anywhere else.
BoL

Ps
Had to look up name of ggp cos forgotten it! Not very professional, but I have a very different system there.
If it does well Buy and build holdings, if it doesn't Sell the lot hopefully at a small profit, cos of previous accumulation.
Could be a backwards step in Methodology, but that was basically my method during the DotCom Boom, and was very successful.
Only trouble was I refused to sell most cos I thought they would return to Old Sp's, but at least I made far more than I lost. Then all the Quality Tech Coys got taken over by foreign competition, cos so cheap.
The market hasn't got a clue, but that is to our advantage cos we can exploit it. I reckon my 5 builders are worth 3 times more than the current Sp, but no idea how long that will take to be realised, so nice to have a little gamble on Aims.
I put far too much into nano, and of all the possibilities of what could go wrong, Apple pulling out was not one I thought of.
Somebody posted that Sp dropped from 55 to about 10, after pull out so they are duty bound to offer at least 55.
Don't think Apple thinks that way. They will be far more concerned with who gave nano £20m + and who is thinking of getting that for free. So I think they will be in the market for nano.
No guarantee of 55, but I remain optimistic and hope it will be a lot more than that.
BoL

Thanks Troubles
Got so used to referring to companies by their tickers, I searched for rdw - not redrow.
Going to buy some more ggp tomorrow 26% profit, and agma up 19% this week (but no cash left in Isa after ggp buy).
BoL

Sorry for being off subject - posted here cos nobody on rdw Board.
I tried to find out the reason for rdw strange Sp movement and guessed not many big II's, But this website doesn't list major shareholders, so tried to look it up on their website. Can't even find their website!
Any info appreciated.
BoL

Hi swiss
I only invest in builders (cos best value by miles) and have a system consisting of a base value and a float in 5 Coys. Never sell the base value and move the float between them.
At the moment 44% float in bdev on which I have made 18% profit (and 110% profit on Base Value), so very happy.
Suggest you get back in Asap cos PreInts next week and Sp going up in anticipation.
BoL

Hi terrace
The market still holds many misconceptions about builders.
Primarily they are cyclical. Used to be the case when Govt controlled Interest rates but not any more. Besides Banking crisis (once every 100 years) there hasn't been a slump this century.
Builders are risky. No company with 20% margins, loads of cash and a shortage of their product is risky. Used to be when low margins and massive debt, but simply not the case any more.
I could go on, H2B, Brexit... have absolutely no affect on Supply / Demand.
Bwy value £130+ but not going to happen any time soon cos the Market is stupid.
BoL

Hi terrace
Cos they are massively undervalued. Should be about 3 * current price, cos fundamentals far better than average Ftse 100 companys. Same applies to other big builders (outside LSE).
BoL

Hi Troubles
Got about half nano in Trade A/c, other half in Isa. My Plan is to give my kids the profit in Trade A/c, (Gift Tax?) and invest Isa money in Builders.
Now got 20% profit in ggp, if/when that becomes 25%, I intend to increase investment there. All in Isa.
Also agma showing signs of recovery (worth watching) so I might buy some of them (in Isa).
BoL

Hi Troubles
Think I will keep all in until end of Feb, then I will have some float cash anyway.
Just hope not too many slumps before then.
BoL