Member Info for Nige_W

Hi TMT
Couple of points about Psn. Down more this week than competitors (6% as opposed to about 2.5%) and hit a -ve turning point on Rel Strength graph (29/11/19).
On the other hand Sp has improved a lot since 13/09/19 (comparatively) and big Divi due 125 (XDivDt about 05/03/20).
No real news, in which case I prefer to trust my original judgement, rather than chopping and changing, or when in doubt do nowt.
Rdw sill bucking the trend - up 1.8% for week, others down from 1.8% to 6.0%, but still playing catch up from election.
BoL

I would say any offer must be at least 30 to 50% more than Sp otherwise not worth mentioning (inferring 20 or more - hopefully a lot more) but who knows?

Hi WiganW
Of course you are right. The wild fluctuations of the past few days makes investing seem more like a lottery. But value remains value regardless of Sp, which is why I mainly invest in Builders.
Personally I think the politics (and Brexit) will have almost no affect on Builders, so as usual, the market is massively overreacting. Unfortunately I think this will remain the case until it is all settled.
Interesting to note the least affected by political news is rdw. Hardly went up after BoJo win (was lagging the rest by about 13%), and today hardly went down (while the rest in freefall). 1.7% up over week as opposed to rest about 2.5% down so now maybe lagging by about 9%.
I haven't bought / sold any since end Nov and don't intend to do any trading until early next year.
BoL

Hi Rhino
You could be right and Sp will hover around 200 for a while, but 2 bits of news (which shouldn't affect UK Builders at all), US / China trade relations improving and Boeing suspending prodn of 737 Max.
I expected profit taking in tw (and bdev) today, but up 0.5% and 1.2% (no doubt cos of US / China relations). Boeing issues definitely has no affect, but looking good for Airbus, but I don't invest in EU (Yet!)
Interesting to note rdw up 2.8% but still has about another 10% inc to get back in line.
My estimate of tw sp price from ages ago was 256 (based on return to undervalued PreBrexit Per's). As Profits increased the projected Per's become Real so 256 is probably too low anyway now, by about 10%, and justifiable Per is far more than PreBrexit Per's. Just compare any builders Per with any other Company the factor is a multiple of 2* to 3* or tw should be 500 to 750, without even looking at fundamentals. Not going to happen any time soon, but that is their true value which will be realised eventually.
Brexit Deal is probably the worst Deal possible and slowest to realise 500 (let alone 750).
BoL

Hi CCCC
Don't have the proper numbers any more but EPS / Profit has probably increased by about 10% since May 18, yet price is the same, implying Sp still undervalued by about 10% (and that was still in the middle of Brexit).
Still think tw worth 250+, so still great value.
BoL

Hi tissue
Hopefully we will get a RNS this week indicating what is going on. Reckon Nano worth between 10 and 200 which is not much of an estimate, bit better than 1 to 2000 which it could be. If no RNS then maybe 10, then depending on what RNS says maybe 200 - who knows. Can't do anything about it, so just have to wait and see.
Needs a strategy. If a bid of 80 I can sell about half my holding and reduce the cost of the remainder to nil. So very happy but if a bidding war and price increases to 160, I have lost 80 per share.
Think that is a bit like horses for courses. Really depends on RNS wording (continuous process or accept 1st - highest bid).
Personally I would really would like to sell without losing money, but could be a daft idea (if Sp goes beyond 80).
BTW this doesn't make much sense to me either.
BoL

Hi Tom
No of buys always = no of sells cos No in issue remains the same. Or for someone to sell 43Mn shares someone else must have bought them. Every trade consists of a buyer and a seller, but only goes thru as a sell if seller got his price or a buy if buyer got his price.
Sorry for spoiling your day and BoL

Hi Ben
I always read your posts with interest cos most informative.
Have you heard anything more on psn (concrete?) bricks? A bit worrying (as if they don't have enough issues).
Weather here (North East) has not been too bad - don't think tradesmen will have lost much time.
As you know I am heavily into Builders (cos most undervalued), so keep an eye on them.
Very best of luck with your investments.

Hi Tom
I know you sold a lot of tw. Suppose it was £83 Mn and you knew I wanted to buy some, so rather than going to the market you sold them to me, then I am the new owner of those shares after paying your price so sell of £83 Mn. Or if I offered you £84 Mn for your shares, it would go thru as a buy cos you accepted my offer, and I got my buy price.
Total number of shares remains exactly the same 3,278 Mn, only ownership changes. Probably too small an amount to even generate a RNS (has to be > than a certain %).
Rules means it has to be notified, otherwise nobody would even know. Most improbable it was a Pi Deal no doubt two big Institutions.
BoL

Just posted this on tw board due to apparent lack of interest here.
"Working late again, but from RelPrice graph easy to see when Brexit vote was (between 17/06/16 and 24/06/16) but RelSt graph shows rdw increasing from 92.7 to 101.7 during the same time (while all others plummeting). No idea why rdw should be immune to Brexit, but not entirely - it now has lowest Per (so best value) cos holds the least cash, and the market expects a housing slump after Brexit, so rdw less prepared for it, but won't happen anyway.
The more I look into rdw the better it seems, only issue they lost Main Man (founder, Ceo, chairman and main shareholder Steve Morgan), who has retired again - last time he did that rdw quickly went into decline until he returned.
In fact from RelStn graphs I can almost predict when he left as Ceo early in 2014, and when he came back as Chairman early 2015. So considering moving some float from psn or bdev to rdw (no float in tw right now)."
Bol to holders and hope to hear from you.

Ps
Working late again, but from RelPrice graph easy to see when Brexit vote was (between 17/06/16 and 24/06/16) but RelSt graph shows rdw increasing from 92.7 to 101.7 during the same time (while all others plummeting). No idea why rdw should be immune to Brexit, but not entirely - it now has lowest Per (so best value) cos holds the least cash, and the market expects a housing slump after Brexit, so rdw less prepared for it, but won't happen anyway.
The more I look into rdw the better it seems, only issue they lost Main Man (founder, Ceo, chairman and main shareholder Steve Morgan), who has retired again - last time he did that rdw quickly went into decline until he returned.
In fact from RelStn graphs I can almost predict when he left as Ceo early in 2014, and when he came back as Chairman early 2015. So considering moving some float from psn or bdev to rdw (no float in tw right now).

Hi Taverham
So according to my last post rdw about 10% behind the rest which infers I should sell some bdev and / or tw to buy rdw, then maybe move back when rdw around 800, but not my method. Might need to change my methods due to (my) expected volatility in Sp.
Hi Troubles
Thanks for your post. As you know I am totally pro EU, and probably only see what I want to.
BoL

Hi Taverham
You sat EU undemocratic, but I consider it as being far more democratic than UK. No Refs, Veto …
Certainly needs reform and they are aware of that - Grexit / Brexit means they have to change.
Don't know much about crst (on my watch list but ignore LSE at the moment). Think the reason for small movement in rdw could be less Institutional investors (proportionally), cos Chairman holds a big chunk himself. Just a guess but if correct should catch up fairly soon.
BoL

Hi Tom
Doesn't really matter. Type O means an ordinary trade (as opposed type A = Automatic.) This means the seller got his sell price which the buyer accepted, and it was a private sale. If it had been type A it would have gone thru as thousands of small sells and could affect the Sp, but no affect cos private sale.
BoL

Hi Troubles
The concept of referendums is wrong (banned in Germany cos led to Hitler gaining total power) so should be banned from our constitution. The EU idea of giving any country a veto should be incorporated into our constitution (so Scotland veto = Cannot leave). The result is now meaningless cos History now, as you say many who voted for it, 6 ft under, while I Million + people (too young to vote) are being ignored.
So should Voters on any constitutional change only apply to 10 to 40 year olds, cos it mainly affects them?

To justify this post (after saying not being political again - but you successfully provoked me!), now we are left with Deal or NoDeal Brexit and looks like no chance of NoBrexit. Maybe 20 Years before we can get back in, and what will be left of UK then? Best solution without a doubt NoBrexit, longer term possibly NoDeal better than a Deal.
In any event don't think it will make a huge difference to Builders, but the rise today is more than I expected and agree with Ben - surge due to Lab and Corbynism (far left) being destroyed.
Personally holding for min of 250 before I think of selling, but as I said probably a lot more surges / slumps to follow, so maybe a possibility to make money on that.

Hi Tom
As you know I think Builders are the only place to be cos most undervalued. Congrats on selling at a profit, but rather than looking at very risky Aims, I suggest you look at other builders. For instance bdev which I reckon as being the most undervalued now, and particularly rdw up just 4.7% today (as opposed to 14.7% tw) while they have been surging since Monday (Open 672 now 716 = 6.5%, tw 176 now 200 = 13.6%. So why has rdw only increased by 1.5% while tw 14.7% - when tw down by 1.1% until today.
Can only put it down to different types / styles of investors, cos I cannot see why the surge which applied to most builders does not apply to rdw.
No idea what will happen on Monday, could inc / dec in price, but not too bovvered cos good value anyway. Need to create a constant held float to take advantage of these flurries, so I can buy / sell on surges / slumps. Is Value better?
BoL
Ps
Obviously a great day for people mainly invested in builders (hic!) and my held profit on bwy (No Float there now) just increased to 116%. Orig investment at 1423 (12/12/13), but increased Base Value since giving av of 1775 now 3831, very good day for me.

Hi sahid
No of buys always = no of sells. Can't buy anything if not for sale. All No of buys / sells means is that it goes thru as a sell if seller got his sell price or buy if buyer got his buy price. Not worth watching.
BoL

Ps
Tomorrow Sat so meant Mon

Hi TMT
I expected a Sp surge on seeing probable Con win last night, but certainly didn't expect it to be so much, so a very pleasant surprise. Don't blame anyone for profit taking and suspect the Sp could be down tomorrow but I will hold. You never know could steadily increase to PreBrexit levels (that I calcd as being 256, but that was undervalued anyway).
Looks like we are out of EU, but now could quite easily be with No Deal, leading to plenty more surges / slumps. Interesting times ahead.
BoL

Hi graham
Most disappointing to me. No doubt an examination will follow, but when the 2 main Party leaders are unelectable there can be only one alternative, yet LibDems have been almost ignored by the Media, who just so happened to have the best Policy No Brexit, No Years of negotiations, No Problems. Fat Cats driving the lot?
Only good thing is BoJo less unelectable than Corbyn or Trump!
Hi Tom
Apologies for getting Political, won't say another word on this. Anyway Santa Rally on the way now and everything OK until next Summer (at least).
BoL

Hi Bamps
Only other thing I can think of is you typed a hyphen rather than underscore (Capital hyphen).
BoL