Member Info for Nige_W

Hi Taverham
Tom obviously suffering from the markets misconception that there will be a sharp decline in demand once Brexit is settled. This is already built into the Sp's which is why I suggest 75% rise (either 3 months after no Brexit confirmed, or about 1 year after Brexit, when results have proved Brexit had no effect on Builders).
Completely agree with you regards supply/demand (Brexit has no effect), and no chance of a significant interest rate rise. Only 1 other reason for builders issues is mortgage availability (Banking Crisis), but hopefully won't happen again.
Daftest thing is who is going to build all the houses promised? We simply don't have the Labour to do it.
BoL

Hi Troubles
Nobody is suggesting any solutions (to climate change) such as releasing SO2 into upper atmosphere - which creates global cooling. The fundamental problem is too many people, which must be addressed by the UN and help given to developing Nations.
At least Corbyn (probably) won't get in. Bit tragic that the 2 main leaders are unelectable Imho.
BoL

Ps
Just figured my plan for tomorrow to become 100% invested again.
Sell float in bwy (small profit), Buy bdev, rdw and psn. A lot more in bdev, (than system was saying) and not much less in rdw and a lot less in psn.
Don't expect anything much to happen on Monday, so hoping my deals will be pretty much as planned, only difference is bwy approaching XDivDt (28/11/19, about 3%) so should go up more than the others. Last of Divis until next year and I have already sold off Divis (at a loss) to become clear of waiting for them to break even.
At the moment I am not chasing Divis at all, and with current politics think that is a better idea. Still don't know the best policy, but suspect it is better to just ignore them - my new system should figure this out!

Hi SweetTooth
Has any Govt Policy ever helped builders. Imho, H2B doesn't make any difference at all and every other policy has been against them, so finally we cannot even build the houses we need (due to lack of labour).
Corbyn thinks throw money at an issue, but unless you import 100,000 Polish tradesmen (or whatever) we still won't have enough labour to build them.
Politicians make impossible plans before elections, which they know they cannot achieve. The biggest liar is BoJo, but Corbyn will destroy the Economy. That's not much of a choice but an alternative, LibDems. Don't know much about JS but a monkey would be fine by me as an alternative.
I would vote SNP to join Scotland (live in North East), cos got a lot of respect for NS, but no candidate here.
BoL

Don't know who Tom is (nor care). If you have a margin of 20% and £1 bn cash it doesn't matter very much.
One thing is almost for sure, once Brexit is out of the way, Bldrs Sp's will return to Pre Brexit levels (inferring about a 75% increase), simply dependant on time (determined by type of Brexit/No Brexit). The market is always cautious, building into prices the worst possible case, and this caution will be released after the GE.
Time to close your short as prices will increase as we get closer to GE, and will take of after it.

Hi Troubles
Feel sure it was Greene King and I used to pass a brewery on the way to work which I thought was Greene King. Long time ago so could be wrong, but usually I just forget things, don't often remember them wrong!
During my search for a descent pub I found a John Smiths place (my favourite) so went in and asked for a pint of Magnet. "What's that?" the Bar man asked. I tried to explain the John Smiths sign has a Magnet on it and it is about their most popular beer, but they didn't sell it.

Ps
Builders Sp' in free fall after big parties announce massive increase in Building. If anyone believed them you'd think Sp's would go up.

Hi Troubles
My system based on what happened in 2017 (2016 and 2018 too much skewed by Brexit), since when my attitude towards builders has changed.
Psn and tw hit by quality issues, rdw lost CEO, bwy and bdev no real issues. So basically I decrease the amount I invest in psn, tw and rdw but increase in bdev and bwy.
Also big sale of CEO trust in rdw - maybe not surprising since he has retired again.
Hi Bamps
Greene King the brewer, no doubt. I stayed in a pub in Oldham (a long time ago when contracting) not far from the brewery. The beer was terrible (but probably due to the Landlord).
BoL

Hi Bamps
Some car! Think it's gotta be a yacht.
Fwiw My system is telling me to buy tw after GE then sell mid March and move to psn, but I argue with it most of the time.
Also tells me to get fully invested before GE in bdev, rdw and psn
My current plan is to sell float in bwy on Monday (25/11/19 prior XDivDt 28/11/19) and follow systems plan, but investing more in bdev than it says and less in rdw and psn. Think bdev is undervalued compared to the others.
BoL

Hi Bamps
Almost got my new system working, all you do is change the value of float and work sheet recalcs all numbers instantly, so telling you inc / dec of profit made. Should be easy to use, but most importantly you have to decide on future trends!
If you think grabbing Divis costs you nothing, I think you could be wrong there. Could be better to simply sell shares.
Need to replace my car as well, but am reluctant to do it at the moment. If builders Sp's double I could buy one for £ 2000 as opposed to £1000.
BoL

Hi autobits
Never really got into VBasic, just found VBasic for Dummies (2008), which I read but never really got my head around it. I should really have studied it in more detail, but always too busy. Definitely have to read it again, do examples etc.
The problem is I first used Pascal then Turbo Pascal, now Delphi (but don't use it) which, Imho is massively superior, but everything originally in Excel, which meant easier to work with VBasic than convert everything to Delphi.
I input last weeks numbers, which is confirming my idea of increase in Builders Sp's generally until GE then big increase.
Based on 04/01/19 Rel Price = 100, now Last Fri, this Fri, inc/dec:
bdev 132.3, 137.6, 5.3%, rdw 120.8, 129.6, 8.8%, bwy 120.9, 125.8, 4.9%, psn 117.5, 123.5, 6.0%, tw 120.0, 122.9, 2.9%, tw strange no dips in price!
End of play today:
bdev + 0.5% = 5.8%, rdw 0.9% = 9.7%, bwy 0.3% =5.2%, psn 1.4% = 7.4%, tw 1.2% = 4.1%. This probably represents current sentiment, But high price bdev 26/07/19 139.7, now (Last Fri) 137.6 = -3.1%. Based on same dates:
rdw 114.8 now 129.6 = +14.8%, bwy 114.6, 125.8 = +11.2%, psn 104.4, 123.5 = 19,1%, tw 124.3, 122.9 = -1.4%.

Or to put it another way, I see no justification for bdev comparative decrease in price and given tw poor IntRes and psn not great MStat1 (and tw MStat1), I think bdev is considerably undervalued now. Much too late to do all these calcs, and probably many mistakes.

Political trend looking good, absolutely no chance of Corbyn getting in, so left with BoJo or some sort of Alliance which will both be better (in terms of Sp's) than the current situation.
BoL

Hi Bamps
Just talking about grabbing Divis no doubt you know the Sp falls by the same amount of the Divi the next day. So the issue becomes the time for which the Sp becomes the same as Max Pre XDivDt.
Some time ago I looked into this and concluded that if +ve sentiment then Sp recovers quickly else it can take a long time. Even if +ve sentiment and Sp recovers in 4 weeks (so Divi for free), the other Builders could have advanced by say 5%, during that time. so not really gained anything.
Beginning to think it is better to invest before a good (5% + Divi) and sell before XDivDt, if Sp a surge towards it.
So basically the system I am writing now is probably a waste of time. No surprises there!
Anyway, I made good Divis this year, and at least that is cash (whatever was happening with Sp's.
Don't think this is very useful (incomplete), but maybe not a good idea to chase Divis.
BoL

Hi Trev
At least not a bunch of abuse.
Still I think a statement needs justification otherwise it has no value.
What do you mean by price structure and distribution? Also I would like to know your red Flag on bdev is.
Fwiw I am creating an investment plan to be in place before GE (Builders boom to follow), which includes more bdev shares, so still think a good time for you to close your short.

Hi Bamps
Town is very risky. Need to do a lot of research before I could be tempted to invest there.
Big loss due to (hopefully one off) revaluation of property, but plenty of cash and assets so safe for now.
Directors sold early in year and don't see a big gain in Sp until showing a profit again.
For me, I see Builders doing very well in short term so am not really looking elsewhere.
Bwy Fin XDivDt 28/11/19, 100 now 3287 about 3%.
Psn Int XDivDt 05/03/20, 125 now 2478 about 5%
Psn Fin XDivDt 11/06/20, 110 another almost 5%
Tw Spc XDivDt 04/06/20, 10.7 now 172.
These Dates / Divis from last year - I think tw stated Spc 11.0 for next year, but too close to psn Fin to pick up both (unless dates change).
Incidentally, I am building into my Planner the Divis and rarely can I change the initial plan to ever increase profit by picking up Divis, (but still in progress).
BoL

Hi all
Just posted this on bdev:
"When I worked for Geo Wimpey the price for digging a back garden fence post hole was about 3 hours. Hand excavation, concrete. waiting for it to set then attaching 3 wire strands. The Gen labourers just wacked the post in with a sledge hammer so made a lot on fence posts. Only trouble was they usually forgot to claim them all!
When this was pointed out to Chief Cost & Bonus Surveyor, he said if they don't do things according to the plans, then it is our job to pay them less?"
Anyway, don't know if all General Labourers have been S/c out now as well, we had some great ones back then, usually about 6 guys and a foreman.
At that time there was talk of making groundworks (paths and drives …) a lump sum for each house, which would enable the S/c idea. Good idea cos general labourers never made the same money a Brickies labourer ever did. No idea what is happening now.
BoL

Hi autobits
Daft story.
When I worked for Geo Wimpey the price for digging a back garden fence post hole was about 3 hours. Hand excavation, concrete. waiting for it to set then attaching 3 wire strands. The Gen labourers just wacked the post in with a sledge hammer so made a lot on fence posts. Only trouble was they usually forgot to claim them all!
When this was pointed out to Chief Cost & Bonus Surveyor he said if they don't do things according to the plans, then it is our job to pay them less?
BoL

I read your post some time ago and thought it was not worth replying to, But:
Again you state an opinion without any justification, so not worth reading.
No doubt you are short on bdev. Hope you were short on Nog and Dish otherwise you will have lost money.
Think there is only one person around here in **** creek, and not sunset.
If you do not change your attitude, and I don't get a decent reply, I will filter you. This doesn't matter very much, but I will report your posts before doing that and you could be banned from this board - possibly this site.
I suggest you close your short on bdev and get back to your penny stocks.
Incidentally, why do you concentrate on bdev and not the other builders? Only shorted 1 builder?

Hi autobits
I finished in Nov 1998 after last 10 years as a contractor, CICS and DL1, never used IDMS. Worked for 10 years in Building as a Quantity Surveyor before being made redundant by Maggie in 1980.
Do you know VBasic?

Just posted this on rdw board:
"Rdw has just overtaken bdev in Sp at 637 for first time since 03/05/19 (rdw 591).
Means nothing at all except bdev underperforming recently rather than rdw doing particularly well.
Now is the question of style, do you invest in bdev (cos undervalued) or rdw (cos got the momentum)? ..."
Bdev up 4.0% for week, rdw up 7.3%.
Or from 2019 Rel Price graph 04/01/19 = 100
On 03/05/19 tw 129.3, bdev 125.3, rdw 118.2, bwy 116.7, psn 109.1
On 08/11/19 bdev 132.3, bwy 120.9, rdw 120.8, tw 120.0, psn 117.5
Rel Strength graph interesting, basically you invest on +ve gradient and avoid -ve gradient. Really highlights psn problems, dropped from 104.6 (22/02/19) to 90.8 (08/03/19), but couldn't really anticipate that (Politics / Media).
Just about to input closing prices for week now.
BoL

hi Owls
China don't make Mercedes and even if they did WTO rules would apply.
So reckon we'll have to make them ourselves, and generate highly skilled jobs.
We are not important to EU and it has been said that they may want to punish us with a bad deal, pour encourager les autres.
Fortunately this does not seem to be the case.
BoL

Hi volcano
Obviously what you do is your decision, but I would not be selling any builders now, cos expecting big increase after GE.
BoL