Member Info for Nige_W

Hi Bamps
Just did some calcs from my Rel Prices table when 04/01/19 = 100 and Brexit low point 16/08/19 (1st No) cur RP (18/10/19) 2nd No and Dif (3rd No) then
psn, 92, 119, 27
bwy 107, 131, 24
rdw 109, 129, 20
tw 103, 119, 16
bdev 131, 141, 10
So best performance this year:
bdev 141, bwy 131, rdw 129, tw 119, psn 119 but best since Brexit low psn 27%.
Which probably means nothing at all, but a pretty graph!
BoL

Hi Bamps
Are you talking about exstatex? He is on psn board and only made 2 posts this month on psn. Suspect all his Coys gone bust, and hopefully he is getting bored with posting there cos almost never gets a reply (unless from a newbie on the scene). Ignoring idiots is the best solution, a big ego thing on bdev now which I will not get involved in.
BoL

Hi Troubles
Boris knows his Deals got no chance of going thru, but is he out of cards? Could be a nasty surprise over the weekend. If not then GE / 2nd Ref and Remain In. If this goes to plan so much upside (250 +) hardly matters getting in at low point, so best to be patient.
Something afoot at nano. 1 sell of £375,000 and Sp goes up? This must be a private sale (with 1 buyer) otherwise the sale would have gone thru as a sea of red (small sells) and the price would go south big time.
Someone knows something (Loam and Griffiths) and I think it can only be +ve.
Hi Bamps
Please take no notice of me - been wrong far too many times. All is no more than speculation, and even if Sp hits 140 on Mon, it hardly matters if worth more than double that.
BoL

Hi Troubles
Quite agree, expect Deal will be rejected Sat, down to 140's Mon then GE and / or 2nd Ref, and so we muddle onwards. Sp volatility = opportunity - just a matter of getting the timing right (easier said than done).
BoL

Hi WiganW
The only reason it is tight is everyone is so fed up of the issue they might just approve it anyway. Why vote for a Deal which is even worse than TM's?
Then GE and/or 2nd Ref, landslide to Lib/Dems and article 50 revoked! (Bit of wishful thinking maybe). Got 50% float in cash now.
BoL

Hi Tom
No idea where Sp will go, but expect low 140's again before things are sorted. Day traders delight, (but I am not a day trader). Not too bovvered cos all builders massively undervalued and only a matter of time before true value realised.
According to my out of date numbers (no guarantees):
Jun-15 sp 191, Eps (profit), 13.3 so Per 14.4
Dec-18 sp 137, Eps 21.3, so Per 6.4
The fact that profit has increased by 60.8% yet the Sp has dropped by 28.3% is madness!
Broker Jeffreys said this is cos the market expects a drop in House prices of 12% if No Deal (which they disagreed with!)
Even a drop of 12% in house prices will barely affect Builders (sit on land banks until prices improved cos no cash issues), preventing drop in prices, and why would No Brexit effect Supply / Demand to begin with?
Builders are the biggest bargain now, and yes you could make more out of ggp, but that's not guaranteed.
BoL

Hi Bamps
Completely agree with you - very risky strategy. One day you might hit a Microsoft or Apple, but for every one of them a thousand go broke. Agree with your idea of holding smallish % ages in many and adding if doing well.
My idea at the moment is that builders are so massively undervalued, why bother with anything else? Safe as houses (cos of cash and margins), potential 100 % + increase in Sp to reach true value, and it's only a matter of time, depending on Brexit.
No Deal will prove the market is wrong (so needs to revalue Builders), No Brexit means Per's can return to pre Brexit levels (so Builders increase by about 70% to undervalued pre Brexit levels), but if a Deal the market will remain totally confused about true value, probably leaving Builders undervalued for as long as No Deal.
Best to be sorted Asap one way or another, so agree with BoJo from that point of view.
Broker Canaccord? increased target price for bwy as their price going south (after FinRes), cos of increasing NAV (Net Asset Value). You can read the report here on bwy News board. My Float 54% in cash now rest in bwy.
Horses for courses, Tom OK no doubt cos of massive tw pension.
Still think my system is best, move a float between 5 Builders (depending on RNS's and Divis), which I think can improve performance by about 20% over LTBH. I just grabbed bdev Divi (6.63% at my av of 555) and sold float at 649 (giving another 5.02%), total 11.65% return since 1st float buy (19/08/19). This is unusually good for grabbing Divis, but given current volatility not too surprising,
My system does not work on Divis, just RNS's. Basic idea if tw inc Sp after Fin Res is 20% (Y/e Dec) and then Flat lines, and bdev inc in Sp 20% after … (Y/e Jun), sell tw float after FinRes and buy bdev, you've made 40% in year, and Divis just a bonus! Obviously not quite as simple as that.
BoL

Hi Tom
Just sold remaining float in psn so only base value left av price 1510, cur price 2354, so leaves a nice big (paper) profit. Also made about 20% on deal. I never sell my Base shares, psn bought late Nov 14, so always in profit.
At least I thought I sold them - but after 4:30 and not gone thru yet - think something to do with the auction (UT Deal).
No doubt it will go thru and from now on I will put a limit on the deal if after 4:30.
BoL

Hi Troubles
As far as I can see Bojo Deal even weaker than TM's, so almost no chance of being passed by Parlt. He has no majority so easy to force an election and maybe 2nd Ref. This implies a big drop in Sp's if/when Deal is rejected (again), so surprised by the rise today.
In any event, I still think it comes down to No Brexit or No Deal and still got my money on No Brexit.
Markets reaction to bwy FinRes disappointing (in line with expectations), sure they will bounce back.
BoL

Congrats Strictly
Hope you got a good price, it got down to 3200 at one point.
Nothing much wrong with FinRes as far as I could see. But the market is always right ? I think the variation in Sp shows the market hasn't got a clue what it is doing. Don't know how many Sp Sell triggers fired, it's how 1 falling pebble can turn into a landslide.
No doubt the price will settle over next few days, I expect at about Mondays price. I also thought about topping up, but not brave enough.
BoL

Hi Tom
Just got your rain (or what was left of it) about 6 pm, not too bad, but lasted about 4 hours.
Adjusting system. Bdev Float av 624 sold at 649 = 4.05% + 6.63% Divi = 10.68%, so very happy.
Thought drop today not nearly as bad as I feared, but still think No Deal will become favourite in next few days inferring 140's again. Then heading North again to 250 +.
Bwy PreFin a bit pessimistic, which makes me think results will be better than forecast, so hopefully a good increase in Sp.
Hi Bamps
Bwy my best performing share by a long way (but have held them the longest). Cur Price 3492, Base av 1775, My av 2746, Float av 3231.
Disappointed you think the Designs were poor, I suppose you could have rude sales staff on any site (but a well run company should prevent that), and Site layout and design must be agreed by the council, so not really their fault.
BoL

Hi Tom
Just bought bwy today, from proceeds of bdev sell on Friday, which haven't gone thru yet so I couldn't buy bwy Isa, but Trade A/c OK cos of auto credit facility with HSBC.
Risky, but hope for a big increase tomorrow (with FinRes). Or maybe not going down by as much as the rest.
BoL

Hi Bamps
I think gfrd need cash and bvs got it. I watch them both but hold no shares in either. if bvs buys Linden? then gfrd off my watch list, bvs remains but don't invest there cos LSE. No doubt things will change for LSE, but it will take time and could get worse.
Buggered up my back as well (around XMas), but I think it is improving a bit - used to play front row but survived that OK, it was my knee that stopped me playing.
Great World Cup, love the Brave Blossoms their attitude, speed, handling, but unfortunately I think SA will be too strong for them, and will have adjusted their plan to play them. Hope I am wrong again.
BoL

Hi Troubles
Latest Brexit plan not looking too good. Think Deal only possible if extension, and BoJo can hardly do that.
Plan still on schedule, I expect big losses this week, so most Float in Cash but topping up float in bwy tomorrow for FinRes (Tuesday). At the moment timing is critical but so chaotic difficult to achieve. If No Deal market thinks 140 ish, if Deal 160 ish, if No Brexit 256 according to my calcs.
As I said before, regardless of Brexit, Trump, Kim Il Dung or whatever, tw worth 256 now. How long it takes to reach 256 depends on type of Brexit (or not), by which time it will be worth more than 256 cos still increasing Eps and 256 based on undervalued Pre Brexit Per's. Things looking good.
Just made 6.63% on Bdev Divi at my av of 555 and sold Float at 650 = 17.12%. So almost 24%.
Not too sure of my calcs here cos my Float av (which I sold) was more like 610 so made less than 17% on Sell. Reworking system to show P/L on every buy. Base Av now back to 380, which is nice.
BoL

Ps
Intend to Invest (not do) - about time spell checker figured out context.
When you have no respect for your teachers, you lose belief in everything, so your ideas are equal. The fact that they will probably have a degree doesn't matter much if everyone has a degree, in the new order.
Looking forward to a bit of Zen (or Tao) Troubles.
BoL

Hi RR
Think all going according to Plan. Massive Sp drop next week as Deal seems to become impossible, followed by Revoke article 50 (one way or another!) and subsequent Surge to my target price 263.
Electorate better educated? Just by the lying Press and Politicians. Think they should bring down the age of voting to 10 (cos its their future) and upper age limit to 50. Nobody seems to believe the experts any more, and their own opinions are equally valid. No respect any more.
Great for me, over 50% Float in cash. Intend do invest bit less than half remaining Float in bwy on Monday, prior their FinRes on Tuesday.
Very bumpy road but hope I've got my timing a bit better this time.
Hi Troubles
Never said whose Plan, who knows?
BoL

Hi sunset
Great day for me. Sold all float at 650 (Float av 622 so 28p up) + 36.8 Divi. That didn't take long. Now only holding Base shares av 380.
I don't take any notice of shorters (reverse Hang Man) and as for a collapse, Invesor obviously hasn't read the fundamentals. When bdev holding 3/4 Bn cash, the collapse will take an awful long time.
BoL

Hi Bazza
I thought Bwy FinRes was today for some reason. Just checked and due 15th from Diary above. Looking good for them - minor surge comparatively.
Hi Troubles
Roll on the skeletons, the sooner he's gone the better.
BoL

Thanks Troubles
Personally I think a compromise is rarely the best solution, so would prefer No Brexit or No Deal. Certainly very happy to sell bdev with profit and Divi for free, last Year bdev took ages to recover after XDivDt.
I still think a Deal is almost impossible, so Politics hardly justifies this surge.
Haven't even looked at bwy FinRes yet, but psn Divi of 125 last year (XDiv around 27/03/20) looks tempting.
BoL

Hi all
Wow! Talk about a bumpy ride.
Don't know the reason for the surge - don't care. Just sold all float in bdev after picking up 36.8 Divi at 650, Float av 622 so Divi for free, plus a little profit. Back to Base shares av 380. Think I will invest in psn and bwy on Monday.
BoL