Member Info for Nige_W

Hi Owls
Psn Boss got £70m and lost his job as did the remuneration committee who set the conditions of the bonus.
Builders profits are high but you could argue that they are need to be to cover the expected Slump (that the market expects).
All created by the Govt anyway, via Banking crisis putting so many builders out of work, leading to the current housing shortage. We need less Govt interference, not more.
BoL

Hi Tom
Complete disgrace. Bet it wouldn't have happened in Germany, France or any civilised country.
BoL

Hi TomJ
Imho the only difference HTB makes is that without it the cake might be a little smaller (cos cut out people who can't afford new houses).
Overall the deficit in housing will remain the same, so (almost) no effect on builders.
BoL

Hi TomJ
Does HTB mean any more new Homes are built? Assuming Corbyn bans it the people who would have bought a new home will buy an existing home or rent, so it will not affect total demand or the imbalance.
No more than an expensive publicity stunt.
BoL

Hi Ben
Talking of fruit, a storeman on a Geo Wimpey site used to hold a variety of fags, which he would sell to people on site. One day he ran out himself, and most of the fags he still had were committed to people on the site, so he asked the trainee engineer to go to the shop and buy him 20 B&H.
Sharp as a nail the trainee asked "What if they have no B&H?" Storeman said "Ah, just get us out."
The trainee came back with a Pork Pie, and returned the change! Not funny to non smokers.
Just about sums up our so called Govt, but at least the (non smoking) trainee had the best intentions.
BoL

Hi Ben
Chinese prefabs never took off - not seen any more news. But as I said summit afoot, so you never know.
According to my graphs a good time to get into tw or top up (depending on which year you look at) with the idea of holding to at least the end of the year.
Based on 2017 (least affected by Brexit) tw outperformed all other builders until End of March, so my idea is to invest some float (after results) and hold until March 2020 (at least).
I used to do Relative Strength Graphs (how the Coys perform relative to each other), which could average out Brexit affect, but abandoned them some time ago cos it became apparent that big 3 (psn, tw and bdev) affected more than bwy and rdw. Think I will reintroduce them, now bwy and rdw (unjustifiably) undervalued cos they hold less cash (more vulnerable to a slump).
Nice to talk to someone who is hands on in the sector, and enjoy your fruit. BoL

Hi Liam
You can study graphs as much as you like but they are formed by the events which take place, the main one approaching is the GE, which (one way or another) will have a profound effect on Builders Sp's.
I am optimistic hoping for a Remain In result and if that is the case, I expect bdev to be around 1000 about 3 months after the announcement. This is their real value regardless of GE / Brexit.
Only 3 things effect Builders fortunes - Supply / Demand, availability of mortgages and Interest rates, while Politics / Brexit doesn't affect any of them.
Even Corbyn winning with a workable majority, should have little effect, but I think there is no chance of that.
BoL

Hi Bamps
Sounds like Timber Frames are a waste of time. Fire was always my main concern (but were told they couldn't burn cos treated). Never thought about settling (nor how long that would continue) and how can you get a 40 year mortgage on a building whose structure is only guaranteed for 20 Years?
Needs regulating - EU very good at that.
BoL

You say Sp should be 300 (leading to over 20% yield). How can it be overvalued when it has one of the lowest Per's in Ftse100? Given a recession people stop buying houses - Why? Will the housing shortage suddenly disappear?
You make statements without justifying any of them, which is not surprising since you have obviously not looked at the fundamentals, and know nothing about Builders.

Building and Materials. New Chat Board, don't know if it includes Civils or not, and Mats means Suppliers (like ibst and tym, who have not taken the opportunity, while psn … setting up their own brickworks, timber frames... )
Not easy to get to yet (under test?), but general chat - search for sectors could get you there. Already a Brexit chat board and should be a Politics board for GE.
From now onwards I will restrict my Brexit, Politics/GE ideas to them (but Politics doesn't exist yet).
Please could you reply to this message as opposed to Nige_W cos I am worrying about getting a complex and BoL

Hi All
Just got the new Relative Price graphs (not Relative Strength!) working properly (and for Lse). Winner last week was psn (+ 3.4%, after not very optimistic Rns, and see my note on psn board - Oh Dear! or look up:
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/homeandproperty/persimmon-new-build-home-that-cost-over-£200000-had-over-80-things-wrong-with-it/ar-AAJTEQH?ocid=spartanntp
tw, bwy and rdw flat but bdev - 1.5%, still think summit strange about tw - no peaks or troughs unlike the others. Not doing nothing now but maybe suggests sell psn to buy bdev.
I stated my Graphs were for last 8 years, 5 years and 1 year, but really last 7, 4 and 1 cos not into 2020 yet.
From Lse, some more daft numbers:
Best performance over 7 years is gle, +365% (not really Lse nor a builder, buys and sells land) as compared to best non Lse, rdw 255% (but gone off the boil since management bust up, so no incr in Sp since 05/01/18.
2nd best performance is bkgh +162%. Don't really know about this cos of share buybacks (artificial increase or does it not matter), thanks Bamps, I also think a quality setup.
Best performance of Lse since 04/01/19 is bvs +33%, worst the last two on my list, crst and csp.
I will keep on watching them all but can almost discount crst and csp, the other 3 could have potential when prices in Lse make a bit more sense.
Hi Ben
No chance of Corbyn becoming PM without a coalition (which should be led by a moderate - Jo Swinson, so No Brexit), so I don't think you have anything to worry about.

I know I shouldn't say this, But Ref 3 and 1/2 years ago does not represent the opinion of 1 and 1/2 million new voters, so making that Ref meaningless now. A massive constitutional change like this should be only passed if a big majority of votes for it ( like 60%). Does it mean anything? Should DC have called it? Do we really need to renegotiate all of this for years, when we already have a Deal? Do you really want our shower of Politicians in control that (recently caused Grenfell and Banking crisis. Anyone notice free trade and customs (which will be a great advantage for NI, according to BoJo) but apparently not for rest of the disintegrating UK And so I could go on.
Anyway, if that upsets people too much, and I get abuse, like Bamps I probably will not reply,
Surprised at you Tom, after your peace making message.
Peace and harmony - BoL

Hi Tom
Completely agree with you, but Brexit has had a massive effect on Bldrs Sp's (not that I think it makes any difference). Can't believe how rude people get on these boards (big one on bdev at the moment), what is the point. makes you feel better or target worse?
Incidentally, Grenfell couldn't happen in Germany (mats banned and must have a sprinkler system), where referendums are banned (cos led to Hitler gaining absolute power).
BoL

Hi Nano
Don't think there will be any shortage of bidders. Besides Apple, partners Merck and Dow (and the Chinese one?) there is Samsung and the company that bought Arm (Softbank), none of which are short of a bob or two. A bidding war between them would be interesting.
BoL

Thanks TLW
Almost impossible to value IP and I made no attempt to do so. My Est of £ 100m + is based on what other companies have paid for IP recently. Can't remember details now but Arm paid £ 100m for a company (that had gone bust) mainly to prevent US corporate lawyers suing Arm for breach of patent. Also Samsung (I think) paid a large amount to ? for just a few Patents (nano has 750).
Not very Scientific, apples / oranges but really no other way to do it. To value the IP would take many lifetimes. So as a result I would say it is a very risky investment, but the potential is a matter of multiple * current Sp. Can't see price falling below 10 but could rise to 100+. Hope this helps and investing is like gambling - you must be prepared to lose. Having said that I don't think there is any chance of Builders Sp's dropping below current prices so not really a gamble. Made good profits there anyway.
BoL

Hi Troubles
My system tells me at 14.75 MrktCap is £ 42m. I regard IP alone worth much > £ 100m, which infers Sp of 22, which assumes the company (and prodn facility) is worth nothing at all.
My av just over 30 and quite confident I will get that back, but am surprised so little reaction to Coy up for sale. Think this is a buying opportunity (but I am not cos already overcommitted).
Hopefully, as details emerge Sp will go up, and I will hold until a result. I decreased my av by buying some at 10, but if I sell them av goes up to 40+. I intend to get back to Builders asap and hope this (like Brexit) doesn't take long to resolve.
Bit of Politics. Quite agree with Bojo (sort Brexit Asap), totally disagree with Corbyn (renegotiate and/or 2nd Ref - delaying everything), but 1 other alternative - LibDems and Jo Swinson - revoke article 50, no 2nd Ref and no negotiations lasting for years. Even BoJo doesn't like his own Deal (worse than TM's) and has no intention of making a Deal (tried to but went wrong on details?! - Plan B).
Take no notice of me, been wrong too often and BoL.

Hi Ben
I wouldn't touch crst cos Lse. Just completed relative strength graphs for Lse and 2020. Of the 10 Builders I watch crst performance by far the worst.
Loads of numbers example
If crst Sp 04/01/13 = 100, now 149, next lowest bvs 195. 49% inc in 8 years.
If crst Sp 01/01/16 = 100, now 69, next lowest bvs 116. 31% dec in 5 years.
If crst Sp 01/01/19 = 100, now 114, next lowest csp 116. 14% inc in 1 year.
Don't touch Lse, but bvs worth watching, (new management) and bkgh (made a few bob out of them and best Mngmnt of LSE).
BoL

Hoped psn getting their act together but just read this:
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/homeandproperty/persimmon-new-build-home-that-cost-over-£200000-had-over-80-things-wrong-with-it/ar-AAJTEQH?ocid=spartanntp
No excuses, are psn just pretending they are trying to fix the issues?

Hi Dogberry
Sp 16, MktCap 48m so if IP worth £ 100m Sp should be 32, £ 200m 64p …
Assuming no intrinsic value in company. Now say a company offers £ 200m then Sp goes up to 64, but deal does not go thru, Sp will probably drop back to 12, or something.
I contend that if £ 200m is offered (Ip Value) then whether it is sold or not it is worth that, so Sp should remain 64 (but probably won't).
Just have to wait and see.
BoL

Hi all
From My post Sat 04:01
"Over last 4 weeks tw done very well, 04/10/19 Rel Price when 04/01/19 = 100:
psn 104, tw 107, rdw 120, bwy 124, bdev 131, but now:
psn 114, tw 120, rdw 121, bwy 122. bdev 134.
So Increase in Sp
psn 10%, tw 13%, rdw 1%, bwy -2%, bdev 3%."

This trend continues today bdev - 1.1%, rdw -0.8%. bwy -0.9%, psn -0.8%, but tw no change. Also most peaked 18/10/19 (bwy 11/10 19) then fell back, while tw has not peaked nor fallen back. This is uncharacteristic behaviour, (normally they reflect each others movement). Makes me think a major player is quietly building a stake here.
If that is the case tw Sp should not fall at all until buyer runs out of cash (or owns them!?) Could well be a RNS soon revealing who is buying now (WB ???)
Of course this is no more than speculation.
BoL

Hi Trev
I have explained why I think they are worth 1000, so what is wrong with my reasoning?
Another idea Sp 26/06/15 627, Eps 45.5, Sp 28/06/19 573, Eps 72.5.
Or a 60% increase in earnings has produced a decrease in Sp of 9%.
And 627 + 60% = 1003. What do you think they are worth, and Why?
BoL