Member Info for Nige_W

Hi Liam, and thanks for your reply
So you are a momentum trader (nothing wrong with that at all). My method is to try to identify best value, via lowest Per's, which led me to Builders. The more I looked into this the better they seemed to me, so now I basically only invest in builders. As an example: Could they go bust, check Debt, (almost £1 Bn cash), check Margin - if low doesn't take much to make them unprofitable, (18.9 % and increasing). Do they give a Div (yes about 10% and increasing)…
The market determines the Sp and so turning points, but this is only a reaction to news. With builders this mainly consists of RNS's, Media reports and Politics.
Easy to look up RNS's (I have a Diary of when these are due) and might invest before FinRes or whatever. Then easy to check Sp movement after RNS. Almost always a big increase in rdw Sp after FinRes. Media and Politics impossible to anticipate.
If as I anticipate, we Revoke article 50, what do you think of my idea of 1000 for bdev? If you remove Brexit from your graph and continue previous trend, it should come to about 1000.
The market determines the Sp but that doesn't mean they are right. The Media and the market have a lot of misconceived ideas about builders (cyclical, dependant of health of Economy, high risk...)
I hope for a huge rise in Libdem seats in GE with JS becoming PM of a Coalition. She has already said they will revoke article 50, so no need for 2nd Ref, and Builders Sp's will rocket. Don't want to be short on bdev then!
BoL

Hi Liam
Nice chart highlighting Banking crisis and Brexit vote.
Now consider what the graph would have looked like if we had voted to Remain In.
PreBrexit max 666, min 360 so it caused a decrease of about 300. This infers Sp would be about 930 now if no Brexit vote, which is not far off my estimate of 1000 (in fact almost identical given logarithmic scale). My estimate based on return to PreBexit Per's and if we Remain In, I see no reason why Per's should not return to PreBrexit levels.
Builders fortunes depend on Supply / Demand, Interest Rates and mortgage availability. Hopefully no more Banking crises, Interest rates set by BofE and won't increase by much (if at all), leaving Supply / Demand, and the housing shortage will remain for years.
This implies profits will keep increasing, (massive) margins will stabilise around current levels, Yield will remain at about 10% and when the market realises Brexit having no affect on Builders it will have to revalue them to > PreBrexit levels.
By using such a large timescale without identifying reason for turning points is pretty meaningless.
Last point, even if we leave with No Deal it does not change my estimate of 1000 - just will take far longer to reach it cos Brexit will not effect Supply / Demand.
BoL

Hi Johnson
Relative price is Sp / Sp of base date * 100, so say tw Sp 04/01/19 = 200, then RP = 200 / 200 * 100 = 100.
Then say Sp 01/11/19 = 400 then RP = 400 / 200 * 100 = 200 so Sp inc 100 % or Sp has doubled.
A method of comparing prices of different companies.
Do the same calcs for all companies / Dates and makes a nice SS. My system does this automatically for 1, 2, 3, 5 and last 7 years, also each individual year 2013, 2014 … In process of making it work for 2020, but nice and easy to change.
Hi Bamps
Scrum not up to it - losing KS early on didn't help, but the mistakes were forced by a very aggressive defence. Surprised and disappointed.
As long as massive profits keep coming in I see no reason to decrease / stop specials and this should remain the case until supply catches up with demand (many years away). Critical point, watch the margin, bad news if decreasing but tw small decrease due to special circumstances.
BoL

Hi Johnson
Agree crst statement has no meaning to tw, and probably no more than new Management games.
Not checked up date of tw MStat1 but my system thinks last Year + 364 days = 12/11/19.
Over last 4 weeks tw done very well, 04/10/19 Rel Price when 04/01/19 = 100:
psn 104, tw 107, rdw 120, bwy 124, bdev 131, but now:
psn 114, tw 120, rdw 121, bwy 122. bdev 134.
So Increase in Sp
psn 10%, tw 13%, rdw 1%, bwy -2%, bdev 3%.
No idea if this means anything at all rdw, bwy and psn undervalued or psn and tw going well?
Hi Bamps
Don't see any issues with Divis and think decreasing Eps growth is simply due to skills shortage - hence general move to Timber Frames.
BoL
Ps Rugby starts at 7:00 so I think I will have a short snooze, watch it and have an afternoon kip. Been trying to get an old alarm clock working.

Hi Strictly
Still think my system is better but can't prove it. (Invest in tw pre FinRes, when made 20%, move to bdev pre FinRes, when made 20% move back to tw - 40% pa excl Divis).
Don't expect to make 40% but even if 20% pa since 2013 then Invest £ 100 4/01/13, then Date, Value:
03/01/14, 120: 02/01/15, 144: 01/01/16, 173: 06/01/17, 207: 05/01/18, 249: 04/01/19, 299: 03/01/20, 358.
Again this does not include reinvestment of Divis (which in the case of tw and bdev far > than bwy).

I will send you my Planner SS (based on 2017 cos least affected by Brexit), good fun playing about with it, future projects include general system, include LSE Coys, apply 2017 to other years... but as I said Brexit has messed my system up. From RelPrice graphs one thing becomes obvious is that when Brexit panic Sp's converge to a much lower (and closer) level regardless of company performance, which I think you observed before.
Al least this lottery should end soon & BoL

Hi Tomjones
Absolutely no chance of Corbyn winning but he could become leader of a coalition (very doubtful, too extreme) so more probable Libdems leader JS with SNP DUP et al. Even if he was the coalition leader he would never be able to get his more extreme ideas thru Parlt.
Anyway, as I said before H2B just a publicity stunt which does not affect supply / demand imbalance, and so new house building or sale prices.
Remain optimistic, No Brexit and Sp 1000 by summer.
BoL

Hi Taverham
Completely agree with you builders are undervalued - as I said I reckon bdev worth 1000 now, but when they achieve that price depends on Politics.
Think you have chickens and eggs mixed up. Govt was destroying the Economy cos of austerity, interest rates controlled by B of E (not Govt), and H2B no more than a publicity stunt. Does not affect supply / demand, even for new houses.
No reason for builders profits taking a hit when demand far > supply, and that will remain the case for years.
BoL

Hi autobits
I only invest in Builders, so watch them carefully.
Some numbers to look at
Relative price now (We 25/10/19) given 04/01/19 = 100
bdev 136, rdw 126, bwy 123, psn 117, tw 119 - bdev the best
Relative price We 16/08/19, Low point due to Brexit
bdev 131, rdw 109, bwy 107, psn 92, tw 103 - bdev still the best (Sp 620)
So increase since Brexit low
bdev 5 %, rdw 17 %, bwy 16%, psn 25 %, tw 16%, av 16% - bdev the worst!?
So comparatively bdev 11% behind rest.
Reason for bdev doing so well is great PreFin results (10/07/19) and FinRes in line with them. Rel Price 05/07/19 121, RP 12/07/19 132 = 11% increase. Need to go back to before PreFin for 570, 04/01/19 Sp 474.
All other builders have produced results this year but none are anywhere near as good as bdev, (quality issues...) so bdev deservedly the leaders, and I see no reason they lag the others since Brexit low.

What is more important is what is going to happen, and here I remain very optimistic. No doubt you will have noticed builders have very low Per's (so very good value - particularly given cash held, Divis and margin). I have a target price of over 1000 for bdev (simply based on return to pre Brexit Per's), and see no reason for any further fall, (no doubt a few hiccoughs will follow), but I expect things will remain pretty flat (or slow growth) until after the Election, followed by rapid growth to hopefully 1000 next summer.

Politics looking better than ever - almost no chance of No Deal and I think No Brexit odds on now.
BoL

Hi Bamps
Just had a look at Hydrogen powered vehicles -
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hydrogen_internal_combustion_engine_vehicle#Adaptation_of_existing_engines
and
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fuel_cell_vehicle
"Critics doubt whether hydrogen will be efficient or cost-effective for automobiles, as compared with other zero emission technologies. " End of Intro.
One day (40 Years time?) we will get fusion power - zero emissions electricity.
Also, might be SciFi now, they are talking about terraforming Venus and Mars.
I think the World is beginning to accept we have a problem (apart from Trump) and this issue was identified in the 1960's.
IMHO we should spend less money on proving what we know is happening and more on fixing it, for every 100 gms CO2 emitted you Must emit 10 gms SO2, or something like that.
Hopefully Politics sorted by end of year, but this has been messing up my system for the last 3 1/2 years.
BoL

Hi Troubles
Things improving every day. Now Bojo says he won't push his Deal until after an election. No idea of what the share of seats will be after an election, but should (finally) make No Deal impossible, then 2nd Ref if Corbyn gets his way or Revoke if LibDems / DUP / SNP get their way. Think No Brexit odds on now. Also I think we have passed low point (last low 16/08/19, since then Bldrs Sp's have risen about 16%). So preparing reinvestment Plan now. End of tunnel in sight!
Trump a day closer to impeachment. No doubt cut in US int rates and China deal will help Sp's, but does not affect Builders values (Imho).
I remain optimistic and BoL.

Hi Troubles
Just noticed on MSN that LibDems SNP going for GE 9th Dec (can't copy link?) Think this is big news. Not really bovvered about Reuters Global news, cos Builders are so insulated from that (even if the market doesn't agree), but do appreciate the info.
Seems again that Corbyn is becoming even more unelectable, cos unable to make any decision. Obviously he would have been asked if he would support their ideas, but still sits on some sort of fence. He hasn't even tried to say why traditional Lab supporters should support EU (cos I think he is against it, so he can form his own misguided Utopia).
From the article you quoted, 1 EU bank rates No Brexit at 50% now. Interesting Times.
Incidentally, would this have gone for 3 1/2 years if Maggi was there?
Hi Taverham
Don't know which is best so my idea is to look at similar systems and pick one to base our system on.
BoL

Hi Johnson
Basically I only invest in Builders, so don't think about the rest of the Economy.
No idea of the effect on Sp, the question is share value, so doesn't really matter if Ltbh. Last I heard was that length EU would grant depended on when / if GE called, yet Corbyn is saying they will call an election depending on extension date?
Still think (in terms of Sp) things could get worse, so still have 50% float in cash, rest in bwy which I regard as being seriously undervalued now.
Hi Troubles
I know nothing about Jo Swinson and something must be done about NHS to make it Cost less to us. Time to look at other systems which work (Germany, N Europe and Aus, NZ). Would not disagree with a Statue to Maggi, at least she did what she thought was best for the Country, and to a large extent I think she succeeded, Caused other Issues though.
Fun next week? Yes for a Day Trader, but means nothing to Value. I will buy when this is all sorted.
BoL

Hi Bamps
The ridiculous thing is that Corbyn is trying to protect workers rights (via EU rules) whch Cons are trying to destroy (to make themselves richer), but the heartland of England have not got that message. Grenfell could not have happened if we had German Regs, and nothing is happening now cos BoJo has given up Govt!
Corbyn was always unelectable and would never have been Lab leader if Ed Milli had not changed the rules, and BoJo would not have been Cons leader (if someone? had not changed the rules), so left going further left while right going further right. Madness!
Consensus is what is needed and the only way is LibDems/SNP/DUP/Lab/Greens and Cons Rebels, to form a Coalition.
Cannot predict seats for each Party (but after GE) I am sure LibDems will gain loads of Cons/Lab seats and so No Brexit. Then LibDems a major Party and sort the ridiculous situation we are in (by the simplest solution).
But who knows?
Hi Troubles
I am sure "The Times they are A'Changing" and about time to. One of my favourite songs.
Still optimistic, but as I said if revert to pre Brexit Per's, this is less than revaluation of builders, if No Deal and the market is forced to revalue Builders. A Deal is the worst Deal, No Deal best long Term, No Brexit best Short Terrm (250+ 3 months after confirmed).
BoL

Hi Troubles
Bit worrying cos time getting very short. If an extension until end Jan 2020 there is no need for a Brexit decision until after the vote, then either 2nd Ref, No Brexit or No Deal depending on Election result. The trouble is there is almost no chance of any party getting a majority, so almost impossible for anything to be decided by a Coalition, and could drag on.
On the brighter side, a vote of no confidence could force an election (on Dec 12), and I expect LibDems will gain loads of Con / Lab seats, and allied with Lab, SNP, DUP... will forma a coalition, which will either go for 2nd Ref or revoke Article 50.
Think 2nd Ref does nothing more than delay the decision, so not much point. LibDems said they would revoke Article 50, so they get my vote (again). Also think BoJo has got a busted flush and in the process of proving he is a great leader has destroyed his own party and made them unelectable, fortunately I think Corbyn has done the same. Two major parties have unelectable leaders? Time for a change!
BoL

Hi Troubles
Hope you are right about No Deal Also 2nd Ref seems less probable. So looks like GE then accept BoJo Deal or revoke Article 50. Things looking good, just hope sorted soon.
BoL

Hi Troubles
You got it spot on, but still amazes me that they could approve a worse Deal.
I think it was Barnier who said "these negotiations are waste of time", inferring there will be No Deal - always too difficult.
Even if a Deal, years of negotiations to follow that could take longer than No Deal, cos no basic Deal to revise. all is new.
So I think GE inevitable, choice Cons No Deal, Lab 2nd Ref, LibDems Remain In. None of the above include a Deal.
Most depressing but at least BoJo will make things happen. Every cloud... Corbyn has destroyed his party and I think LibDems will pick up seats from Lab and Cons to become serious contenders - but almost inevitable there will have to be another coalition.
BoL

Hi Troubles
Congrats, Army saying "Proper Preparation Prevents ****Potical (or Poor) Performance", five P principle.
Has Bojo got a busted flush? I think he has alienated so many people there is no chance of his Deal being approved. Worse than TM's. From our point of view (as Bldrs shareholders), I think No Brexit is closer than ever.
A Napoleonic British General said "The Infantry don't understand their orders, the Cavalry disobey them and the Artillery have their own agenda". Where does Boris stand in that, or is it just all part of the plan?
No idea where how this will end, but I think No Brexit best, then No Deal, then BJ Deal. Doesn't really affect Bldrs values, just a matter of time before they are realised,
BoL

Ps
Great win for England today, next All Blacks then South Africa. That's gotta be the hardest way to do it, but whoever wins Eng / NZ I think will win the World Cup.

Hi Ben
Nothing much happened so don't see much change on Monday, unless it becomes clear what BoJo's latest scheme is.
I think no more than 25p decrease if looking like No Deal (as you said), but think if Deal approved less than 40 to 50p increase, maybe 25p. Nobody really knows what this means and will lead to years of negotiations, besides Scotland, Wales and N Ireland leaving UK to re-join EU.
Best idea is No Brexit, which I have said could lead to almost double builders Sp's, (tw 250+) about 3 months after being confirmed. Still think this is favourite, by whatever means (GE, 2nd Ref).
Besides my Base shares (50%), half my Float in cash, rest in bwy after FinRes which the market didn't like, but I thought were v Good, and have had two Broker Buy reports since then. Canaccord and Jefferies I think - on bwy news.
BoL

Hi WiganW
International? Maybe its the opposite and looking for an International buyer. That's what happened to all my Tech stocks years ago, and with being so undervalued the same could happen again. Management / Directors as happy as sandbags cos will be retained for a while, then sell their shares at much inflated prices and happily retire.
Is this a Surrender?
BoL