Member Info for Nige_W

Hi Bamps
Just saw I got my EMail wrong!
Nige_W@hotmail.com. Sorry about that.
BoL

Ps
very busy - not bust! Working nicely but plenty more to do.

Hi Tom
Been very bust with system (as usual).
Nothing to do until next year (Buys, Sells).
Not had much rain here but has been very windy. Had to retrieve wheelie bins about 4 times.
Hopefully a Santa rally after the election then plain sailing until the summer.
BoL

Hi Nano
Can't see Govt doing anything at the moment, cos as ddubya said basically No Govt now and they did nothing at all about Arm (massively bigger company of great strategic importance). No idea what will happen on Thursday, or even implications assuming possible results. The whole system is broke and needs fixing.
BoL

Hi autobits
I am in the process of writing a system that displays Relative Price and Strength for my 5 Builders over last 8, 5, 3, 2. 1 years, and a projected autocalc system for P/L (Based on 2017 and incl Divis) as a basis for future Plans.
I will send you them if you send me an E-Mail ( Nige_W@hotmail.com) and my system (not quite finished yet).
I will be interested to know what you make of it.
BoL

Hi Bamps
I am fine (besides a cold and bad back) and I hope you and family are well. Been arguing on bdev recently.
Busy again with my system. I am developing a test system that anyone can use (provided you know Excel and ideally a bit of Visual Basic - which is my limit). But just for my 5 Builders - later 10 (incl LSE).
Still in process but got some good results tonight. Just got RelPrice and RelStrength working for last 1, 2, 3, 5 and 8 Years.
Also an autocalc that will tell you P/L depending on different investment plans based on 2017, as a basis for future plans.

The basis of my idea is that if you invest in the best builder (tw?) you can make on av about 10% per year + 10% Divi = 20% now. My idea is that by moving a float between my 5 Coys, I can make 20% more than that.

I realise this is little more than a hobby of yours, but if you are interested in my idea send me an E-mail (Nge_W@hotmail.com), and I will send you some of my wonderful Spread Sheets (and later my Test System when completed). This applies to anyone else interested.

I remain very optimistic for Builders (whatever happens). Santa rally I was hoping for. but maybe not - looks like (unelectable liar) BoJo will get in which is better than Corbyn. But BoJo seems to ignore details - Brexit will take years of negotiations, which he could end at any time - ie No Deal which is what he wanted (apparently?), but better than a Deal Imho. Best is No Brexit but giving up hope of that.

Thank you for your concern and Very best of luck.

Hi autobits
Glad you got back in. Fwiw I have my float n bdev, psn and rdw right now which I reckon will outperform my other two (bwy and tw) until beginning of next year. Just intend to hold til then. Good you (& sunset) have both made a bit thru trading, but not my style.
Think bdev best value now and PreInt due mid Jan could see a surge.
BoL

I thought a bid would have to be sent (by mid Dec) then would be accepted / rejected by Nano, so if an unsuccessful bid, can the bidder increase their bid - hence the bidding War.
You talk of Chinese / Korean War, but I can't see Apple leaving this alone (even if not in short term plans).
A reasonable price could be 20p, but I think things could go totally mad and could sell for a big multiple of that.
Bol to all holders

Hi Troubles
Not given up on revocation of Article 50, obviously the best solution, but LibDems are really going to have to start moving soon to make it possible. Should have had Paddy Ashdown as party boss now, who would destroy BoJo and Corbyn (the two unelectables).
Don't forget US might own a lot of businesses here but we own a lot abroad.
Could get into trouble off Tom for saying the above, but 2017 (the year I study in detail) tw had good PreFins (13/01/17) then not great FinRes (10/03/17) so after FinRes they basically flatlined. Psn was the opposite, not great PreFins (06/01/17) but very good FinRes (03/03/17).
So I make an optimised system based on 2017 prices, then an Enhanced system (move from tw to psn before FinRes) then a 2020 system (dec Float in psn and rdw and inc Float in bdev).
Many examples like this, just have to guess where Sp's are going. Maybe no better than Dart Board but keeps me busy!
BoL

Hi Johnson
Must say if that idea works for you then Best of Luck. I don't work that way, I try to anticipate Sp movement over a few months based on History and RNS's (of 5 companys) and move between them depending on which performing best at that time. Always hold a base value (equal to total Float) and invest Float in (usually 3, sometimes none) of the other companys.
I now have float in bdev, rdw and psn which I intend to hold until next year.
Of course Political considerations (GE) and Brexit could affect the situation a lot, but don't think it makes any difference to Builders fundamentals. Unless quality issues, politics and media hit the Bldrs.
Fwiw I think bdev, and rdw undervalued undervalued now, psn overvalued. So why invest in psn - big Divi coming soon and usually a Sp jump around this time of year.
BoL

Hi Troubles
Still think a Deal is worst possible outcome (at least from Bldrs Sp point of view).
Whatever happens I hope it is resolved quickly (Deal and particularly Corbyn could drag on for years.)
Suspect BoJo might be getting what he wanted - Deal not agreed, so we will leave anyway without one.
BoL

Hi cm45
My calcs keep saying the same things, based on Per's (and return to Pre Brexit levels), tw worth 250 to 260 now, which is quite a return! Now I think only 2 alternatives, a Coallition and No Brexit, then no reason why Per's should not return to Pre Brexit levels, or BoJo deal. In this case results season early next year will be watched carefully and Brexit will be seen to have no effect on Builders. So why price in a disaster which is not happening. Result return to Pre Brexit levels (but will take a lot longer - maybe a year).
Last point, Pre Brexit Per's were too low anyway, so 250 to 260 is minimum.
BoL

Hi sunset
Even pleaseder today - bwy took a hit.
Now bdev + 3.3%, rdw + 2.8%, psn + 3.6%, bwy + 1.6%.
I would like to claim I anticipated this but pure luck.
Nowt wrong with taking a profit, but I am holding for 1000 +.
Trump probably will effect Sp (but no reason to).
BoL

Hi cm45
In a word Brexit.
Why else tw Sp 197 Dec-15, Profit £603m
when Sp 177 now, Profit £850m. Look at Per's, only a matter of time before they return to Pre Brexit levels.
BoL

Ps
Hope I can get sunset and autobits talking reasonably together. Who will be First contact?

Hi autobits
Tried to reply to your message yesterday but it got deleted (my fault - too many windows open).
Anyway - to sum up other than what I have just said.
Basically I only invest in Builders, why look anywhere else, given Margins, Cash, Divis… I would say Builders are worth up to 4* current Per's (and so Sp), and it means I can study them in far more detail.
Cannot see any issues now (apart from Corbyn being elected - almost impossible), so as I have said a gradual inc in Sp until GE, then take off - 1 way or another.
I suggest you move in before GE, regardless of triggers.
BoL

Hi sunset and autobits
Been looking ay my Rel Price graphs for 2019 for bdev. All dates based on 04/01/19 being 100.
Rel Prices now (Fri 22/11/19) bdev 139.0 ie 39.0% inc since start of year and not incl 3.8% this week.
A big increase after PreFin (10/07/19) from 121.1 (05/07/19) to 142.2 (18/10/19) prior to FinRes (04/09/19), back down from 133.1 (30/08/19) to 129.3 (06/09/19).
So obviously the market loved PreFin but not happy about FinRes.
PreFins are an esitmate of what the results will be, FinRes say what the actual results are and will no doubt be in line with PreFins. The main difference is that FinRes will include a statement of future prospects, which is what I suspect will have put the market off.
I have not reread FinRes, but don't remember anything alarming (that doesn't apply to all other Builders). So everything looking good.

Undervalued?
In short term this can only be regarded in comparison to bdev peers (ie psn, tw, bwy and rdw - excl LSE), all of which have been catching up with bdev recently.
So for comparison Cur Rel Price:
bdev 139.0 dec from max 142.2 (18/10 19) ie dec 3.2%.
rdw 130.6 inc from min of 108.6 (16/08/19) ie inc 22.0%, great FinRes (03/09/19) - always good and don't publish PreFins.
bwy 128.1 inc from min of 103.9 (21/06/19) ie inc 24.2%, cannot relate RNS data back to Sp movement.
psn 125.3 inc from min of 91.8 (16/08/19) ie inc 33.5%, have people forgotten quality issues? Imho overvalued but fantastic fundamentals.
tw 125.0 inc from min of 102.9 (16/08/19) ie inc 22.1%, after bad IntRes (08/08/19) and quality issues.
So the peers are all up from 22% to 33% while bdev down by 3%, infers to me bdev undervalued by about 30%.

No way you should sell bdev now - worth 30% more than peers, so I would suggest hold don't adopti my (wonderful) system until bdev back in line with others.
Always a good idea to take a profit when you can, but a better idea is to hold while Sp still going up, hence next summer review.
BoL

Hi sunset
Very pleased today, all builders up and bdev the most. All in profit on float, the only slight problem bwy up more than rdw and psn, but not really bovvered. Think a gradual (if jumpy) increase until GE, so expect 700 easy.
What happens then is anyone's guess, but most probable a coalition and No Brexit (then prices fly!), then BoJo with small majority (prices continue upwards) then BoJo with big majority (ditto).

Fwiw my silly target prices:
rdw 1061 + 58%, tw 256 + 53%, bdev 1025 + 50%, bwy 5081 + 46%, psn 3541 + 37%,
which should be achieved 3 months after No Brexit announced or within 1 year if BoJo. These numbers are simply based on return to (my adjusted) Pre Brexit Per's, but note those were far too low anyway, and if BoJo (& Brexit) the market will be forced to revalue Builders (cos Brexit had no effect on them) and could be considerably more.
I think sharp rise today due to Corbyn messing up interview (making him unelectable) and Lab Govt becoming impossible (even worse than BoJo!) Definitely no time to sell, so just sit back and don't worry, until Summer next year (for a review).
I will send a more detailed analysis later.
BoL

Hi Troubles
If the world was not overpopulated, we would not have climate change, starvation, wars caused by expanding land (and ethnically cleansing the inhabitants)… As David Attenborough has been saying for years.
One criticism of your last post is that you said it "Would" cause more problems as opposed to "Could."
The Scientists themselves regard (SO2) as being desperate measures, but I think we need more research on solutions, not proving what we know is going wrong.
Anyway, an epidemic probably on the way, followed by an Ice Age, so maybe no worries.
BoL

Hi sunset
As I just posted I think it is no time to get out of bdev. In fact I just bought a bunch today cos I regard them as being undervalued. Also bought rdw and psn but less in terms of value.
There is no reason to stick to 1 builder and I think I can make 20% more than the best performing builder by moving a float between them. I sold all float in bwy today (with a small profit) so now base av price down to 1775, cur price 3410 so P/L is 92%. Base av prices of rest producing about 60% P/L.

As for Trev I think he must use Dart Board method to short the richest, solidest builder of them all. I wonder when he put his short on? First post on bdev 11/10/19, so probably before that - no way he can be making money on this, but I feel sorry for him. If you invest you are taking a chance. But to use the riskiest possible method is madness without high quality research. Never justifies any of his statements. Suspect he won't be around here for long.
BoL