Member Info for Nige_W

Hi TMT
Lot's of Results in first 6 months. Brexit has and will continue to be the major factor in Sp movement. You can either try to make money out of that, or just ignore it. Remember that as we get closer to 2021, the Sp movement will become greater as the time runs out, so I think a good idea is to be mainly invested in 1st 6 months (maybe 10% Held), then increase that to 20% or more in last 6 months.
Just added to SSheet to calc % PL on Base values.
bwy 114%, held since 12/12/13, after top ups av now 1775.
bdev 96.1%, held since 13/08/14 bought at 350, topped up 11/06/18 at 578 giving av of 380.
rdw 95.9%, held since 22/08/16, after top ups av now 386.
psn 74.2%, held since 25/11/14, av now 1522.
tw 20.9%, held since 22/08/16, av after top ups av now 160.
Note rdw and tw orig shares bought about the same date, but making good money out of rdw (not tw).
This does not include completed Deals PL and from this point of view bwy by far the best, followed by bdev then rdw.
I was chasing Divis on psn (broke even) and tw (lost a lot), and sold out rather than waiting for a recovery, (so my own fault entirely). Like to think Proper Planning Prevents ****Potical Performace (Army 6 Ps principle).
Anyway, I think it is good time to adopt my Float idea cos Prices cheap now, which is the best time to do it.
BoL

Hi TMT
Of course there is no way of knowing if a Deal will be made, but as news announced I think the Sp will vary wildly as it has done for the last for the las 3 1/2 years. Then the question becomes do you trade on the volatility (ie reserve float) or just hold (assuming original plans OK).
Think I will adopt a compromise position and hold a small float (10 to 15% of Tot float). Compromise never the best solution (like a Deal) and don't like the idea of Day trading.
Couple of points to bear in mind. Usually builders do well in 1st half of year (so be mainly invested then), and rdw seems to be least affected by Brexit. After GE tw and bdev up about 14% while rdw hardly up at all (so Relative strength well behind) but catching up now. Same with after leave vote, rdw almost unaffected while rest in freefall. Again it took time for rdw to adjust.
No Deal is not a disaster, the market expects a massive housing slump (which won't happen) and then will be forced to revalue builders.
Happy New Year and BoL

Ps
PreInt 09/01/20, sorry

Hi Taverham
Are you an Ex Tef investor, and resident in Aus or on holiday there?
Heard its fat too hot there right now, I remember 1966 when hot all summer and was hoping for a thunderstorm, which never happened.
Anyway, given Rel Price 04/01/13 = 100 crst cur RPrice 165, csp 194 (who didn't start trading until 19/02/16), bvs 226 and bkgh 289. Also gle (not much of a builder - buy and sell land) 528, (but after losing Ceo Sp has (comparatively) dropped recently). This doesn't look good for crst!
Also, I don't think a Deal (with EU) is going to happen which means the Sp's of above will slump as Service sector sucked out of London to EU, which is why I keep out of LSE.
Rdw going well recently and I think a surge due in bdev soon (PreInt around 09/01/18).
I wish you a happy New Year and glad you took no offence from my last post.

Hi TMT
Agree Deal doesn't matter much, but the Market thinks it does - hence 1 years more volatility. One condition was that No Deal until everything is settled. BoJo is trying to change this to agree principles, and details will follow, hence out of EU by Jan 31st 2020 not 2021.
Don't think BoJo wants a Deal anyway, but certainly a massive drop in Sp's when that is confirmed - ie Cash in Float.
BoL

Ps
Just got my Relative Price / Strength Graphs working for LSE. For last 8 years their Sp is a disaster compared to the others.
Imho, a badly run company. Miles behind bkgh and csp and bvs to a lesser extent.
I suggest sell crst and buy more rdw or bdev.
Happy Christmas and BoL

Hi TMT
You could be right about an overreaction to psn issues, followed by a counter reaction. We will no doubt find out on 14/01/20 (PreFins), but not too optimistic - it will no doubt, cost them money to sort out, which could decrease profits.
Tw PreFins 08/01/20, which I also worry about.
The point of moving a float about is you get in before RNS, but only if the RNS is good. Much more confident about bdev PreInt 09/01/20, rdw IntRes 05/02/20 and bwy PreInt 06/02/20.
Already have bdev Float at 43%, rdw 31% and psn 26%. So only adjustment to make is move (part of or all?) float from bdev to bwy between 09/01/20 and 06/02/20. Quite happy to hold psn for Divi. So only deal to make is at end of Jan, maybe just 1 Buy and 1 Sell, unless things go pear shaped.
Now I think No Deal Brexit is much more probable than it was (increasing volatility) which means I think it is a good idea to hold up to 20% float as Cash. Then get in on a slump, get back to 20% Cash on a descent return.
Too much like day trading for me.
By using this method I now have 112% profit in bwy (av price 1775 now 3760), cos I never sell original shares - no float there at the moment. So no Cgt worries and most things happily green on WS.
BoL

Hi BBD
As troubles said, it was me who said "The market is no guide at all", in 1st post on this thread, because no way we can know the real value of the IP, nor can the market. I also estimated the value of nano as being somewhere between 10 and 2000, but on being pushed 20 and 200, which is still not very uselul. As far as I can make out Samsung wants display and Apple IR sensors, so a deal there is possible. China wants Cadmium free Dots and always interested in State of Art Tech, so I am hoping for a bidding war, and another Coy could move in like SoftBank who bought Arm.
The point is there is far more to Nano IP than just Display and IR so maybe they could make an offer - no expertise in nano Tech, but they didn't have any in Chip design either.
The only people who can decide on the value are the bidders, after deciding on the value to them and what they will do with the rest of the IP, (develop or sell off - hence Samsung Apple Deal).
I remain optimistic, and hope for at least 30 (my break even point), and think getting any clues from the market is about as useful as reading tea leaves.
As I said this Tech cannot be developed in the garden shed (needs quality people and R & D facilities), but the potential is massive. At least we know the Tech works.
BoL

Hi Taverham
Think good move from tw to rdw. I avoid crst (and all other LSE ), so don't know much about them. Still think rdw got a bit of catching up to do, but up about 1.9% this week rest about 0.8%, so getting there.
BoL

Hi TMT
Big drop in relative Sp 20/12/19 so could be due to the report 17/12/19. It dropped from 93.6 to 87.5 on 20/12/19. My main concern is that since 13/09/19 (RSp 81.8, bdev 115.9 - max 123.9, 09/08/19), psn has completely out performed the other builders for no apparent reason, hence worry about -ve tp. This also implies bdev undervalued now, and I think also rdw (so that is where my float is 43.3% bdev, 30.9% rdw and 26.2% psn).
Re sentiment, just sent this on tw board
"Yet the market expects a slump!? Maybe cos end of cycle overdue. Just got my Relative Price / Strength graph going back to 2000, looking for last slump. There hasn't been one! (Banking crisis a one off or 90 year cycle if you include the depression)."
My point (as ever) is builders are massively undervalued and deserve a Per at least double current levels ie double Sp. Don't know when this will happen, but can't go bust, so see no reason to look anywhere else.
Besides builders, I hold far too much in Nanoco, but that is improving now (on verge of a takeover). 60% down but hope to get that back. I would recommend them but very risky.
Merry Christmas and happy New Year.

Hi Troubles
I know you make no guesses/predictions, but why not for this? No more than a guess.
Personally, I won't sell any until 30 or more then maybe sell the lot at cost. So rather hope no surge on speculation cos would be tempted to sell. I think a better idea is to wait for solid news and then selling some at a descent price, ie sell half at 90, then base cost nil - remainder for free. Numbers don't add up cos I bought some at 10, but if I sold them it pushes up my Av, but happy to sell half at 90.
Of course lost a lot of money if Deal is at 174 (about 50% if I sold) half), but not really bovvered cos rest at no cost.
Do you have a strategy?
BoL

Hi Taverham
After the election most Bldrs increased a lot in price, but not rdw and has been playing catch up ever since. So looking good for rdw for 2 reasons. Got 31% float in rdw and already float 10% up, so very happy.
BoL

Hi Manofl
Yet the market expects a slump!? Maybe cos end of cycle overdue. Just got my Relative Price / Strength graph going back to 2000, looking for last slump. There hasn't been one! (Banking crisis a one off or 90 year cycle if you include the depression).
BoL

Hi Troubles
The market is no guide at all (sine we are part of it), and it is no more than a guessing game for anyone other than the bidders. Certainly no guarantees, but given the potential I am surprised so little speculation.
The positive thing to me is the interest of the Chinese who will push the price. Samsung & Apple might have come to an arrangement to keep price down. Hope you are right about Monday.
BoL

Hi nano and troubles

Agree with you both, to me due diligence means full accounts details and basically anything else bidder wants to know. This infers the 2 or more offers are good enough to present this info to them, and also that one offer will probably be accepted. No Deal can be made without full disclosure (due diligence), so obviously you don't just give this info away.
Cannot be binding until full disclosure, so a bidder could decrease the bid (or increase it) depending on what they discover.
As Fredr said a disappointing market response. but imagine this could go on for months as hopefully a bidding war hots up.
Good idea to get a company (Evermore?) to handle this (but know nothing at all about them), no doubt they specialise in this. Also nano statements will have to be approved by them.

So. to sum up, I think good offers already in (much > 20), and best offer will be accepted, Evermore handling bidding War so ME cannot say much at all. Think poor old ME happy to get out of this after all the abuse he gets here - that should certainly provoke a response!

Now for the guessing game. How much? I say 120 which will do me very nicely!
More guesses welcome, and the nearest will win a Gold Star Blue Peter Badge.

I remain optimistic and hope it doesn't take too long.
BoL to all holders

Hi TMT
Do you know when that report was published?
As you know I hold a base value in 5 Builders and move a float between them. At the moment 31% float in Psn which I am a bit worried about. Tempted to move some or all to bdev and rdw. Certainly I think a good bet long term, but -ve turning point in Relative strength means in short term could suffer, but big Divi on the way and might just hold for that.
At least float in profit.
Thinking about increasing Held float cos of expected volatility in Sp until Brexit sorted, but maybe too much like day trading.
BoL

Hi TMT
Psn down badly last week maybe due to their concrete Bricks which don't work (as reported by Ben on tw Board). Time to Bail out or hold? cos fundamentals are still excellent But why did no one else make bricks out of concrete?
Just looked at our hero exstatex, just 2 posts this month, one whinge below and one on ura (Uranium Energy) that cleanest of all energy producers!
"Have officially complained to the Russian Government again re what happened here"
At least things are not that bad for us!
BoL

Hi Troubles
Different for some people, trade as a hobby and forget about it, and good luck to them.
Also my hobby, but I study things in detail, hence my idea of moving a float between builders, don't know if it helps particularly in these turbulent (Brexit) times, which will remain the case for at least another year.
Still don't know if we are leaving with a Deal or not, but pretty sure No Brexit is not happening. This just means the rollercoaster continues for another year, and the 2 Dates mentioned will have an impact, but so will Politics - almost continually (although hardly matters!)
Greatest opportunity for Lib/Dems and Jo Swinson blew it, got bullied on tv by AN, and was far too nice to take advantage of the fact that both other leaders are unelectable. Only good thing is Corbyn didn't get in cos less electable than BoJo.
And so we muddle onwards. At least it creates opportunities on trading on volatility, but value remains.
Did you notice my last comments on Rdw immunity to Brexit? Makes me think increase held float and use rdw as a refuge during bad times.
Agree 180 not probable (but who knows?) My calcs messed up cos No Brexit not going to happen (delaying 256 + for tw).
BoL

Hi Cdl1
I missed that. Not the best of timing cos he missed out on post election surge.
Don't know why he sold - not too bovvered - no doubt he had his own reasons.
BoL

Ps
Critical Dates (about) tw PreFin 08/01/20, bdev PreInt 09/01/20, psn PreFin 14/01/20, bdev IntRes 05/02/20, bwy PreInt 06/02/20, rdw IntRes 05/02/20 (No PreInt), psn FinRes 25/02/20, tw FinRes 26/02/20 and bwt IntRes 25/03/20.
These will create big price movements as they are announced, but a bit of a guessing game as to which will be good (and so get into before Results).
Fwiw got Float in bdev, rdw and psn now in that order. Confident about bdev. System says move some from psn to tw early next year for PreFins, then move back for psn Divi.
Don't expect psn or tw PreFins to be great next year, but one thing I have noticed is if Pre? good Sp increases a lot, but followed by little change (or decrease) in Sp after actual results (which are almost always in line with expectations, but includes prospects which market the doesn't like - tw increased costs in Imported Mats? Applies to all builders, and almost meaningless anyway).
Ben said lot's of bad weather this year will probably have slowed prodn so profits could be down. Not too bovvered as long as Value far > MrktCap.
BoL