Member Info for Nige_W

Rdw has just overtaken bdev in Sp at 637 for first time since 03/05/19 (rdw 591).
Means nothing at all except bdev underperforming recently rather than rdw doing particularly well.
Now is the question of style, do you invest in bdev (cos undervalued) or rdw (cos got the momentum)?
Things to bear in mind, rdw just paid a massive divi, XDivDt around 03/05/19 causing the decline as a leaving gift from Chairman, and last time he left Sp went pear shaped.
No apparent reason for bdev decline, so maybe a safer option. Anyway I'm not doing nowt, so not much help!
BoL

Hi Johnson
First of all it is impossible to value any builder until after GE, cos the result (rightly or wrongly) will have a massive affect on builders Sp's. Suppose that is what they are paid for, so have to say something.
Secondly, if you can look at Liberum predictions historically, they have consistently undervalued builders since the Brexit vote. Obviously they believe a slump will follow Brexit (while I see no reason for that, whatever happens), so they have been proved wrong for all of the last 3 1/2 years. Have a look at Deutsche Bank - a bit more realistic imho.
From my prev posts you will know I am totally pro EU, but would still prefer No Deal to a Deal - very bad in short term but will force a revaluation of builders by the market, to maybe grg Per (ie tw worth around 400, but could take about 2 years), while PreBrexit Per's should be realised about 3 months after No Brexit decided (so Spring next year) - think I calcd 216.
BoL

Hi autobits
I still have 50% float in cash but intend to be fully invested before GE. Can't see bdev going below 600, but a gradual (if jumpy) increase until GE. So need to get investment plan sorted.
I was an IBM Cobol Prog/Analyst, never used Basic since about 1983 and my code is terrible (don't use Objects, Files...) but it works well.
BoL

Hi Owls
Things will Not be equal. All existing Deals will be replaced by WTO rules, which means all imports will go up in price (more or less everything you buy), while exports will decline (and so foreign income). So short term massive shortfall in Govt revenue forcing increase in taxes and probably interest rates.
Who is the "we" in we will have more control - of What? Grenfell …
BoL

Hi TMT
I think worst Option is a Deal Just leads us to muddling on without any say in the EU.
Certainly Sp's will fly if No Brexit, while No Deal might be bad news in short term, but as the market realises almost no effect on Builders, they will be forced into revaluing the sector. This should lead to Per's > PreBrexit levels.
I said before if psn had grg Per, psn Sp would probably be 7000 +. Not going to calc details but you get the point.
Hi Johnson
At first I thought this was simply due to psn having far more cash (so less debt interest), but now bdev and tw almost caught up. tw margin reduced by about 2% due to addressing quality issues, while bdev margin still increasing. Other than that can only put it down to better management.
BoL

Hi Dave
Referendums should be banned like in Germany, where it led to Hitler gaining absolute power. We vote to elect politicians to represent us, so they should lead us.
Why not have a referendum on MP's Pay. I say minimum wage - but not even worth that! I am sure that would get 90% approval (not 50.? %).
And what about the 1 1/2 million new voters who never had a say and will be most affected by the decision?
Referendum held 3 1/2 years ago is meaningless now.
Hi Troubles
Beautiful country up there, maybe not as spectacular as the Lakes, but not as touristy, so it has its advantages.
BoL

Ps
Sorry Troubles just got Political again.
But massively important and will seriously affect tw Sp,
Justifiable?

Hi all - have a look at:
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/dont-give-up-on-stopping-brexit-eus-tusk-urges-campaigners/ar-BBWIuX9?ocid=spartandhp
Completely agree with DT (Tusk not Trump!), but how is it so many Brexiteers can think their way is best for the UK, when it will destroy it. As I said before, all that will be left of UK is London, the Shires and a few tax havens, if we Brexit. I live in Teesside / Cleveland / Redcar and East Cleveland (not too sure?), but if we had an SNP candidate I would vote for him / her to become part of Scotland (and remain in EU).
I hope some sort of sanity prevails, and this ridiculous state of affairs becomes History soon.
BoL

Hi autobits
Major price movements happen after release of RNS's (besides Media / Politics - can't do anything about that).
Best explained by a simple example.
Bdev Year End June so FinRes about Aug, tw Dec, FinRes Feb.
Say bdev Sp increases 20% after FinRes and then Flat lines til next FinRes and tw the same (but in Feb), then invest in Bdev before FinRes, sell after making 20%, buy tw before FinRes and sell after making 20%. You have made 40%, and only been invested for about 3 months or so.
Obviously an oversimplification but makes my point.
The way to do this is make a table of relative SP's for each week for each year with Sp 100 on say 1st Friday (04/01/19), bdev Sp 474, so Rel Price 474 / 474 * 100 = 100
Then 11/01/19 bdev Sp 503, so Rel Price 503 / 474 * 100 = 106.1.
Repeat this calc for all weeks and all Coys (suggest no more than 5 Coys - gets too complicated).
Print graph down and mark on it RNS dates, and you can see surges / slumps created by the RNS's.
Using this method I think you can make 20% more than LTBH, and this doesn't even include Divis.
You can also calc Relative Strengths. Calc Average price for each week (Tot / 5) then RelSt = RelPrc - Av for week + 100.
From the table you can calc best times to buy / sell for each Coy, usually 4 buys / sells per year for each company, but some so much better than others, many can be ignored (so less than 40 deals per year, more like 30).
I have 50% Port in Base Value and 50% in Float
My system is written in VBasic and Excel and updates everything automatically. Hope you know Excel!

Certainly wouldn't want to be short on any builder after GE
The price range of bdev 65% over year, is far greater than it would have been if No Brexit, so hopefully when that is out of the way, Sp's will settle at a much higher level. The graph should not only tell you when to buy / sell bdev, but also all the other Coys. In the process of getting RelSt working for LSE then 2000 Table.
BoL

Hi Troubles
For a change I agree with most of that article but Not UK's biggest builder any more, psn by MktCap, bdev by houses completed. Doesn't mention ridiculously low Per's, which if Sp returned to around a justifiable 14 would lead to Sp about 300 and yield a more reasonable 6% or so.
BoL

Hi Johnson
Think TMT inferring all builders will fly.
Are psn fixing quality issues? See Oh dear below. After seeing that I would say tw better value. More importantly 8.4 or 8.9 are just over half PreBrexit levels inferring psn should be around 4500 and tw 300 (if as I believe Brexit will not affect builders).
Not checking anything right now - no time - but 18.6 Divi at Sp 166 is well over 10%.
Hi TMT
Still hoping for No Brexit then no reason why Per's should not return to PreBrexit levels. Think there is no chance of Corbyn getting in (losing support in the North) and could delay No/Brexit for ages.
I recently had a look at Polls and SNP rated at 4 Seats, Welsh about 1. This is ridiculous and expect SNP to win just about all Scottish seats and Welsh half or more. Main point, 2 unelectable politicians, so must go for JS and Libdems who (hopefully) can form a coalition with SNP and Plaid Cyrwmry (or whatever), without Labour, then revoke article 50.
BoL

Hi Troubles
My main point is Govt and Builders must work together, not against each other (Brokensh*t).
Hi Tom
In line with expectations - not great, small inc in Divis, dec margin.
Now 166 so not much affect on Sp.
BoL

Hi sunset
There is no doubt that quality of bdev better than quality of psn, but hopefully psn has addressed this issue and are fixing it. As I said this is reflected in higher Per of bdev, which has been decreasing as psn Sp catches up. Whether this is justified for psn or not is a matter of debate.
I read the article "80 faults" and posted it on psn board title "Oh Dear", implies they are not very successful in fixing the problems.
Main point is there is no need to only invest in 1 builder, so I invest in 5. By moving a float between them I think I can make more money than the best performing builder.
BoL

Think I sent that by accident
Anyway … Trading / ISA accounts.
BTW I said my ideas based on buying before RNS's but this doesn't really matter, what is more important is relative strength movements. Could say this is no more than a reflection of relative price (and RNS's), but also highlights exceptional ideas (such as psn quality issues unveiled by Politicians and the media).
I think that by recording all prices everyday, you get a feel for the coys, even if my brother showed me how to update this automatically. I can look at bdev and usually predict the Sp movement for the rest, so what is unusual is if one differs from my guess - then find out why.
For example psn had little to do with the more volatile Sp of bdev - made me think far more long termers there than bdev or tw. This has totally changed since quality issues, but now improving quickly (no doubt as PI's replaced by big Orgs).
Doesn't really matter too much whichever you invest in, cos all massively undervalued, but I would say invest in all 5 to insulate yourself from a disaster, and why invest anywhere else?
So much better to be polite and costs nothing, so I look forward to a reply particularly about what you think of my system.
BoL

Thanks for your reply autobits
I have data going back to 2000 (but only done charts for 2013 and after). Will do a chart for 2006 onwards (Relative Price and Relative Strength) which shows the Banking crisis in detail. At that time psn and bwy hardly affected by the crisis cos had loads of cash, while tw and bdev had Big debts and almost went bust. They had to keep on building to pay off the debt, but since it was almost impossible to get a mortgage then, they couldn't even sell what they built. Proves the point of Supply / Demand and why a large amount of debt is never good.
Since then tw and bdev have learnt the lesson and now have Cash.
The contrarian point of view is interesting, basically the opposite of momentum. Don't know enough about Chartists ideas to pass comment, but Liam seems to believe in them totally. I think this is a mistake cos whatever happens in the GE will have a big effect on Builders Sp's (one way or another), regardless of double tops, nooses...
My idea is simple, find Coys which can't go bust (large amounts of cash, high margins and now big Divis), ie Builders. The big 3 could just stop Building for years, and wait for the margins to return. These things are the idea of Warren Buffet's Value shares, which he says will (eventually) be realised.
I seriously believe bdev could be 1000+, about 3 months after No Brexit declared, they are worth that now regardless of Brexit, (cos will have no effect on Builders). That is simply based on return to (undervalued) PreBrexit Per's.
As I said if bdev had grg's Per Sp would be about 1800 now.
I don't do shorts either. It started off with farmers in US guaranteeing the price of their harvests, so if the price of corn decreased they got the price the today, but only had to pay the price when the harvest was gathered. So sell 100 acres of corn at $100 per acre = $10,000. Due to a glut price of corn the price goes down to $50 per acre, so only worth $5,000, but you have already got $10,000, so am I bovvered. The opposite is also true. If the price goes up to $200 per acre (cos of corn beetle destroying crops), you have $10,000 but your crop is worth $20,000. Still not bovvered cos happy with $10,000.
The point is somebody has to agree to buy your harvest at $100 per acre (ie corn Sp $100), so shouldn't really make much difference. Maybe the buyer has the problem and needs to sell some real shares in corn to cover the cost of his promise to me, thereby bringing the Sp down.
The opposite is going long ie buying at todays price $100 = 100 shares in corn, and picking up the price on harvest $200 for the shares I bought at $100, now worth $20,000 which only cost me $10,000. Don't know how to do that, but right now I would be long on all builders!
OK for US farmers, but a rather desperate measure for ordinary investors. You can lose the lot (or quickly make a fortune). Personally I'm not too bovvered. Even if I had no pension I could live off Divis (but all left in Trading / Isa a

Hi Owls
The only issue is who is going to build them..? If margins lower the big builders won't want to do it, and basically there isn't enough labour available to build them. This all needs planning, more apprenticeships... which could take years, (unless you prioritise and import thousands of Poles or whatever).
We don't even have the capacity to produce the materials now (psn new brickworks, timber frames...)
BoL

Hi autobits
I am invested in all 3, also bwy and rdw and have been for the last 7 years.
During this time attitudes have changed a lot and so relative prices. The best way to compare them over time is to watch how Per varies, lowest least popular, highest most popular.
The key issues recently have been Brexit, psn (and to a lesser extent tw) quality issues and bdev's lack of them. This has driven bdev Sp up more this year than the others with a justifiably higher Per, but psn and tw catching up again. Imho bwy and rdw have been (unjustifiably) heavily hit by Brexit (cos they hold least cash and so more vulnerable to expected slump).
So bdev safe and solid (and relatively cheap now), psn and tw improving more quickly (issues successfully resolved or forgotten?), but probably best value is bwy and rdw, cos regardless of what happens I don't think there will be a slump.
Some numbers which might illustrate that, assuming Sp 04/01/19 = 100:
bdev now 132, bwy 121, rdw121, tw 120, psn 117
But 3 weeks after bdev excellent PreFin results (10/07/19) on 26/07/19:
bdev 140, tw 124, bwy 115, rdw 115, psn 104
and low point of psn 16/08/19 quality issues 92 which coincides with low point of tw 103 after poor IntRes.
So you can see how bdev Sp has risen far less that the others since 26/07/19.

Having said all that, the above is not the basis of my system.
I hold a base value in the 5 companies and a float that I move between them depending on upcoming RNS's. This way you always hold your original shares (now my PL on base shares is over 60%). Just need to decide if RNS's will be good or bad, and I have a planner where I can vary investment amounts and it recalcs itself to show the PL over the year. Plan based on 2017 (less affected by Brexit which has messed up my system!)
So I study Builders in detail (cos lowest Per's), which I think is better than Dart Board method (Greggs going well now - think I'll invest there, but if bdev had grgs Per Sp would be about 1800).
Hope this makes sense and BoL

Ps
Got Relative Strength Graphs working again, need to check they are right and what they mean, before I can scatter some more pearls of wisdom!
BoL

Hi all
Anyone any idea for the big rise today. Only news I could figure is Farage not contesting Con seats, which I hardly think justifies 3% av rise.
Long may it continue (whatever it is), need to make a new investment plan.
BoL

Hi sunset
Your trading of insults with autobits is puerile, and so is his response. Do you derive pleasure out of insulting people, or are you hoping he will be offended?
It is possible to have a reasonable discussion with anyone (even if you don't agree with them), as I have with Liam. Trev a non starter for me cos he never justifies any of his statements.
So please could you both stop this, so hopefully we can learn from each other, after all that is the purpose of these boards.
BoL