Member Info for Nige_W

Ps
If I was a day trader I would take profit soon and reinvest after Deal rejected (by any of DUP, our Parlt or EU, or Vote of No Confidence). Nice to see Sp go up but don't think it will last - bumpy ride.
John Bercow has negotiated an extension if GE or 2nd Ref.

Hi Tom
The Brexit mess has been seriously affecting Builders Sp's since it was announced 6 months before Ref.
The table below assumes Per's return to Pre Brexit levels and the resultant Sp's assuming No Brexit.
What I did say (as TMT confirmed), was these projected prices are valid now even if No Deal confirmed.
The result of (No) Brexit only varies the time taken to reach these prices, by which time they will be worth more anyway. All are still increasing Eps.

Revised revision of target Prices if No Brexit. In the table below:
CSp Current Sp
JPer Justifiable Per my idea of what Per should be = Pre Brexit Per + or - a bit, as I see fit, (see comment).
LEps Last published EPS
CPer Current Per = CSp / LEps
TSp Target Sp = CSp * JPer / CPer
% Dif (TSp - CSp) / CSp * 100
Then:
Coy, CSp, JPer, LEps, CPer, TSp, % Dif
bdev, 587, 14.0, 73.2, 8.0, 1025, 74.6 - No Issues
rdw, 592, 11.5, 92.3, 6.42, 1061, 79.3 - Always behind others, and lost Chairman
bwy, 3200, 12.0, 423.4, 7.6, 5081, 58.8 - Always behind others, but Fin Res due soon
psn, 2063, 12.5, 283.3, 7.3, 3541, 71.7 - Major issues, qualty but addressing them
tw, 148, 12.0, 21.3, 6.9, 256, 72.7 - Quality Issues and Poor Int Res

All apart from bwy 70 to 80 % increase. I expect bwy to announce increased Eps (later today with FinRes), bringing it back in line with the others. This also highlights the fact that accurate numbers can only be produced twice per year (when EPS announced).
If you set up this Spreadsheet you will notice you can change CSp, but it makes no difference to TSp, only changing CPer and % Dif. The Target Sp is not dependant on current Sp.
As a daft idea input JPer of 22 or 30 for tw (as grg Per was). 469 or 639 if your SS is right.
Why grg has such a massively bigger Per than Bldrs, I have no idea, and as I said my numbers are based on Pre Brexit levels, which are hugely undervalued. As I have said, the Market has got it all wrong and generally, I would say Builders are worth more than double their current value.

Warren Buffet is all about value which will be realised, just need to be patient, and with these Divis !
Gotta lotta cash coming, rdw, tw and bdev (Nov), with bwy to follow (Jan) and psn (Mar).

BoL

Hi Troubles
In the process of revising my revision of potential Sp values, given No Brexit. Fundamental issue I was using projected Per's as opposed to existing Per's, which I think was wrong. Also decreased just Per, but still leads to about 75% inc for all Builders.
I know you don't agree with this speculation, but I still think we will not leave EU, and that it means this is a massive opportunity. Latest guess is tw 256 about 3 months after remain in decision (time lag another guess), but certainly more than 200, you said you would be happy with.
Much more importantly tw are worth 256 now as far as I'm concerned and that is still (almost) true if we get No Deal. Just will take the market longer to realise they got it all wrong again, and in fact the basis of my calcs (Pre Brexit Per's) were undervalued anyway.
Guess you saw my comparison of tw to grg, inferring tw should be something like 400 to 800, based on their Per.
Too late now, I will post my ideas tomorrow after checking things.
BoL

Thanks Levis
Too late for me to answer, going to bed now - I will reply later in detail. Good to have a reasonable discussion. which I always enjoy. We have different ideas, and improbable that we will agree, but always good to talk.
BoL

Hi avocet
I got hit big time by nanoco, thought about the Coy a lot and what could bring them down, but never imagined their main sponsor would pull out. Sirius always too risky for me, particularly when no solid investment plan. They were always needing £ Zillions, and if that is not properly in place, not looking good.
Could be famous last words but tw has loads of cash, massive margin so no problems in short term. At current Sp, Yield is almost 13% (assuming no inc next year).
Also think no chance of a crash regardless of what happens.
BoL

Hi mickey
Thanks for your courteous reply, often turns nasty (far more than tis / tisn't).
Few things in life are guaranteed, apart from (almost) all politicians are liars.
I used to work in computing and the worldwide standardisation of systems meant that you can now plug almost anything into anything else and if it fits it will work. Same way we need standards in Taxes, Currency, Building (would Grenfell have happened in Germany? - answer impossible)… Builders Sp's have not recovered.
Scotland... certainly not too small to join EU and more reliant on EU than England (financially) but will hurt their exports as sales to England decrease but decrease imports from England (cos of 10 to 15% taxes on Cost). Doesn't matter much to them cos single currency and Buy / Sell from EU.
Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, Slovenia, Cyprus, Luxembourg and Malta all have a pop less than 3 million. Don't know how the smallest work within EU, Vatican City, Monaco, San Marino, Liechtenstein and Andorra, but EU looks after them as well.
Certainly don't think borders between England and Scotland... is the answer.
BoL

Hi LEVIS
If we had EU law Scotland would have vetoed Brexit 40 months ago, and we wouldn't be in this mess. The fact that it was 40 months ago means it is History now, and does not reflect peoples ideas now. No Deal was not a choice. Most decisions like this require a majority (60 : 40 or whatever).
Since Parlt already rejected No Deal, BoJo can't get a Deal, I think this means he must revoke Article 50 (unless he has some schemes, lies or whatever to circumvent it). We shall find out soon no doubt.
Agree with BoJo need a decision before Halloween, No extension, GE or 2nd Ref.
Incidentally, if you are a tw shareholder and we get No Brexit, my calcs show tw worth 293 (more than double current Sp), which I think could be achieved by end of Jan next year (if No Brexit this month).
BoL

Hi Mickey
We are still in EU! I am totally pro Europe, but don't think No Deal will affect builders (other than it will take prices far longer to recover to reflect true value). As to the other predictions, I don't know but the market certainly believes them, as proven by Sp movements.
Sovereignty? What happens when Scotland, Wales and N Ireland go for independence to re-join EU. UK now 6th biggest economy in World (just been overtaken by India), France and Brazil just about to overtake us and if we lose Scotland... probably down to 12 or more.
So weakening EU, weakening UK, losing jobs particularly in Banking, Insurance, Manufacturing... Personally I would prefer to get rid of the shower called our Govt and be directly ruled by EU.
BoL

Hi Troubles
Brexit with Deal impossible both now and in the future, so revoke article 50 or leave with No Deal. No point in an extension, so hopefully all will be resolved soon. Sp could drop further if/when No Deal confirmed but after that heading North (my target 293 - but not saying when).
Had a calculator at Geo Wimpey in 1973. State of the Art, size of a large typewriter and it had 2 memories!
BoL

Hi dfs
At 145 tw yield is 12.68% assuming no inc in Divis next year. This is madness, they will recover, just need to be patient.
BoL

Good reuters article in News for psn and tw, click News above or
https://www.lse.co.uk/news/TW./live-markets-fund-managers-look-for-brexit-bargains-8ejr64tfj55pvts.html
BoL

Hi sunset
Think I will hold for Divi as well. Might as well make the cash while its there, and don't think it will take long to recover whatever happens.
Made some predictions of Sp's if No Brexit on tw Board (early Sat).
bdev 1194 (based on Per of 15.0 - maybe a bit optimistic?)
BoL

Hi Troubles
Good post.
Only way Boris could remain PM is by revoking Article 50 himself. But sounds like he has gone potty now so don't think there is much chance of that.
It is more important to Ireland than any other EU country for UK to remain in EU. They might have said nothing yet, but that card is in their hand, which will be used if required.
How times change - seems to be a requirement of BBC that you are LGBT, a paedophile or lost a limb or two, following USA ideas which just don't work, (causing 2008 financial disaster). Why not give everyone a degree, cos doesn't matter about ability any more, but equality and perceived fairness.
We could win Rugby WC again, thru ability without any amputees in the team (but plenty of good old ex Public school kids). Even that is being redefined as Private schools now. More inventing the meaning of words faster than ever now!
Last Point, a strong Europe would be good for USA, which Obama knew, at best Trump is penny pinching short term, but I don't believe he has any policy at all, apart from his own delusions.
BoL

Hi Troubles
Just had 2 1/2 hour power cut so missed England Argentine highlights. Msn saying this winter could be worst since 1963 so need more candles.
Ireland needs UK to remain in EU more than any other country - the majority of their trade is with UK, so if vetoing an extension forces UK decision, resulting in UK revoking article 50, that is the best result for them (let alone Merkel and rest of EU). I think the cards have been stacked and all still going according to Plan.
I agree with Boris - best to have a decision before Halloween, but hope Parlt makes it impossible for No Deal, so he will revoke article 50, and then resign, or remain as PM as saviour of the country?
Besides Govt incompetence in running anything they control, how much has this mess cost us? If Scotland had a veto it would never have happened (EU law).
Still no decent discussion about Trumpania, Germania. I think we basically need the same Laws, Rules, Standards, Taxes, Currency... and EU should run the lot. No need for separate countries (or Govt's) so we could become United States of Europe (USE), the biggest and most powerful trading Organisation in the World.
Who owns the Express ?
BoL

Ps
What fool created "No Breait Sp's" thread?

Hi Troubles
Think a Deal is impossible, which leaves No Brexit or No Deal. Parlt will do anything to prevent No Deal and I think BoJo will lose this as well. Hungary might say they will revoke extension, but for reasons you said probably won't, but Ireland could well revoke extension to force the issue. Just hope it is resolved soon.
Now Wales is talking of independence to re-join EU, so a step closer to UK being London, the Shires and Tax Havens.
BoL

Hi Strictly
I sent a post on tw Board giving my predictions of Sp's if No Brexit.
All 5 of my companies are almost double current Sp's, so doesn't matter much which you invest in.
This is why my system tries to identify the best performing Sp's at any particular date.
As system stands this means 4 buys and 4 sells per year per company, but in fact less than that cos of overlaps.
BoL

Hi Jakob
I don't have your EMail, but all formula are there so shouldn't be difficult for you to set up yourself.
Hi Troubles
No doubt you think I'm being overoptimistic again, but Imho if No Brexit there is no reason why Per's should not return to Pre Brexit levels (or better!)
BoL

Hi All
Just revised my target Prices if No Brexit. In the table below:
Justifiable Per my idea of what Per should be = Pre Brexit Per + or - a bit, as I see fit, (see comment).
CPer is projected Per from Fundamentals for each Coy (at bottom of page)
CSp Current Sp,
TSp Target Sp = CSp * JPer / CPer,
% Dif (TSp - CSp) / CSp * 100
Then:
Coy, JPer, CPer, CSp, TSp, % Dif
bdev, 15.0, 7.8, 621, 1194, 92.3 - No Issues
rdw, 12.0, 5.9, 601, 1222, 103.4 - Always behind others, and lost Chairman
bwy, 12.5, 6.9, 3239, 5868, 81.2 - Always behind others, but Fin Res due soon
psn, 13.0, 6,8, 2096, 4007, 91.2 - Major issues, qualty but addressing them
tw, 12.5, 6.4, 150, 293, 96.3 - Quality Issues and Poor Int Res

Nice little spread sheet to set up - all you need to do is vary Justifiable Per to recalc (and input Current Sp).
I think it hardly matters which is the best value, when all worth about double (or more) current prices.
Think we are now at low point. Maybe another (temporary) drop if No Deal, but as I have said before mainly built in and it doesn't affect value anyway. Just will take longer to reach these levels.
I expect Sp's will reach these levels within 3 month after No Brexit confirmed.

Hi TMT
Now you hold many builders I suggest, you store them in Notepad as you reply on different Boards, That way you know what you said, when, to whom, regarding what. ie "tw191005TMTNBrxt". Add last 2 params if you like, and probably better to write in Notepad to begin with, then copy over. Wish I had done that cos now I don't know what I said to anyone!
BoL

Hi Owls
Agreed the imbalance is getting worse. The way to address it Imho is to decrease Public spending. The inefficiencies in public services are ridiculous as are Quangos, which Tony Blair was going to fix (more at end of his Admin that start).
Don't know what % tax is taken by Govt but my main complaint is that they take it everywhere. I agree with Paye and Vat - not too sure any other taxes are justifiable. Who does the extra taxes on tobacco and alcohol hurt? Besides increasing smuggling and organised crime.
Some daft examples: Mod employs more people that the RAF and RN. More Admirals than ships.
Some questions. How many hospital employees per bed...
BoL