Member Info for Nige_W

Hi Graham and Bamps
I reckon companies can't go bust if they have loads of cash - hence builders. Let alone Growth, Margins, Divis…
Unbelievable how low their Per's are ie A bargain you will never see again.
Imho, only a matter of time before the market revalue them, and the potential is double (or more) than current prices.
According to my calcs bwy and rdw most undervalued (least cash), then psn (issues) and tw (poor interims) and least undervalued bdev - no worries, even though the market was not impressed by their FinRes (I was!) Bdev is a banker for me.
I think it is a good idea to spread investments between a few companies cos, one could always have a disaster. Which is the best hardly matters when they have such potential.
Incidentally, psn the biggest builder by MrktCap again, £6,747m, overtaking bdev £6,580m and tw £5,343m.
Hi Troubles
Got too much in bdev right now (for Divi), but Supreme Court ruling tomorrow, which could help Sp's. It is far better for your companies to be safe and undervalued, rather than risky and fair value, Buffet, he say, (or something like that). Just need to be patient.
BoL

Hi Owls
TC not my cup of tea. Had massive debts for years, that alone enough to put me off. At least you saved £25k - glass half full? Also, change in Ceo rarely good news, so holding less rdw and psn than I would have.
BoL

Hi Troubles
Increase in uncertainty generally means decrease in Sp's but if supreme court rules against Govt, I think it makes BoJo's position impossible - so No Deal almost impossible, increasing Bldrs Sp?
Who knows? Main thing is it doesn't change Builders values Imho, just will need to wait far longer for Sp's to reach them if No Deal Brexit.
BoL

Hi Monty
Govt can hardly do that when they desperately want more houses built.
I remain optimistic.
BoL

Hi Tom
I was in hospital 5 years ago for an arterial bypass (95% chance of success) which could last 10 Years. They had to fix gangrene first though (50% chance of success), caused by lack of circulation.
Hope you are well, and I feel fine now, BoL

Hi Bamps
Seems to be working again now.
The way to compare Divis is by % Yield pa, which is Total Divis / Sp * 100.
If Yield is 10% then you get back £10 for every £100 invested. If Yield is 5% you get back £5 for every £100. Then:
rio 232.78 / 4233 * 100 = 5.5%
bdev 46.48 / 646 * 100 = 7.2%
tw 17.44 / 166 * 100 = 10.5%
psn 235 / 2120 * 100 = 11.1%
Yield are listed here in Fundamentals, also
http://upcomingdividends.co.uk/
Divis paid 0 to 4 times a year (tw 3). In order to be able to compare them at any time I assume missing Divis are the same as previous year. Don't know what further Divis due from Rio. Divis usually announced when FinRes / IntRes published.
Your own Yield is Tot Divis / your av price * 100, on XDivDt.
My system Calcs all these things (Excel and VBasic) automatically, and I often quote directly from it rather than calc at the time (so could be wrong at times!)
BoL

Hi all
I'm fine thanks - just been unable to post.
BoL

Hi Owls
Tom was a Project manager at tw, that is a seriously high position, so his tw pension will see him thru retirement alone.
I could buy a M4 (or two) if I wanted, but my investments are basically my pension, so I am prudent and drive an old (58 reg) Renault Megane.
There are a lot of very rich guys on these boards, but they have got there by hard work, leading to success, and who can criticise them for that?
Hi Tom
Time to stop this discussion, obviously causes resentment.
Fantastic car and I am also a bit of an enthusiast. I have owned a Lancia, 2 Alfas, Mk 1 Golf Gti, an Astra Gte (8 valve 2 litre) and a Toyota MR2. Despite the fact that the MR2 was 50 bhp more than the Astra, in some ways I preferred the Astra.
Put your foot down and it just set off, regardless of revs (scalded Tiger), unlike the MR2 where you really had to drive it properly - get the Revs right.
For this reason, my current dream car is the Focus St3 with the 2.5 litre 5 Cyl Volvo engine. Massive low end torque (scalded Tiger), but not made them for about 10 years. Must be great when you have the power and torque of the M4, but how usable is it?
Daft thing is nobody really mentions this in Car Mags any more. Did you notice that the engine was talked about by Ex police mechanic in Top Gear, in the gigantic Police Volo ??? T7.
Max speed Astra 128, Toyota 138. but I got 140 on the clock of the Astra and 150 on MR2 (after about 20k miles). Megane only done 20k so should be spot on now!
BoL

Hi Bamps
Forgot it was rdw XDivDt today, down 5.8% for week less 3.3% Divi = 2.5%. Bdev down 4.1%.
Anyway Supreme court ruling soon, maybe that will give us a break.
BoL

Hi Bamps
Tw down less than my other 4 builders so that is good.
Bdev down less than rdw so that is also good ?!
BoL

Hi James
Like strictly I am almost completely invested in Builders because of Profits, Margins, Cash and Divis. Imho a justifiable Per could be 2 * or more than current levels - and so Sp's. Hence unequalled value.
I don't believe housing is cyclical any more, while recession, Brexit and withdrawal of H2B will have no affect on New House Sales.
Demand for housing depends entirely on Interest rates and mortgage availability.
First point (cyclical nature), when was the last recession? (other than Banking crisis, decreasing Mortgage availability). About 25 years ago? Some cycle! The previous slumps in building caused by Govt increasing Interest rates, which also caused recessions (recession did Not cause the slumps). But Govt no longer controls Interest rates, BofE does.
Builders fortunes depend on the Supply / Demand imbalance. None of the last 3 points, affects this.
Based on a return to Pre Brexit Per's, I calcd bwy 80% uvald, bdev 60%, with psn, rdw and tw somewhere in-between them. This also assumes a return to (undervalued) Pre Brexit levels, hence my 2* + estimate, or 100+ % increase in Sp if we remain in. For the reasons above even if No deal Brexit it does not affect Builders values, but Sp's won't reflect that until the market realises their preconceptions were all wrong (as they see continued massive profits, margins).
Another calc I did was my last 4 years Divis as % age of Total Divi:
2016 10%, 2017 20%, 2018 28%, 2019 42%.
As you can see Brexit has had a massive affect on Builders ?!
It has obviously helped them considerably as Sp's go down increasing Divi % ages. I think this alone proves my point.
BoL

Ps
Bwy FinRes 15/10/19 (when they will announce XDivDt and FinDiv), bdev XDivDt 10/10/19 while bwy XDivDt about 28/11/19, so could move from bdev to bwy for Divi. Last year bwy FinDiv 95 pps, so expecting about 105 this year.
Then on to psn and tw next year.
Sounds like I am chasing Divis. Suppose I am but why not when Sp's depends on Politics not Coys performance.

Hi Bamps
Done the deal today. At least I'll get a nice big Divi in Nov.
Brought av price for rdw down to 403 (= 5.1 %), and increased bdev to 555 (= 6.6%).
All float in bdev and bwy now.
BoL

Hi Bamps
Rdw XDivDt on Thursday so expect a drop in Sp of 4% ish. Might just do the Deal later today.
System should really tell me all these things. Might buy a Diary!
BoL

Been reading thru the board a bit. Cannot believe they didn't have a financial plan, maybe backed by one of the big Miners, and basically no more than a new company owned (mainly) by one of the giants.
Of course there is risk involved in digging a shaft and a tunnel, which generally cost massively more than any forecast. Comparatively bridges are far cheaper cos closer to budget - or to put it another way, say project costs £1 Bn - a bridge might cost £1.1 Bn, a tunnel £ 2 Bn, and a shaft ???. This should have been taken into account.
Maybe management couldn't organise a P*ss up in a brewery.

I'm not a shareholder cos no return for many years, but whenever I see a big drop in Sp I wonder if the market has overreacted.
The ridiculous thing to me is that the infrastructure was bound to cost Zillions, and they must have known that. ie what was their plan and what has gone wrong with it?
I think it is almost impossible for Govt to allow this to go pear shaped (after closing BSC Redcar), but that assumes we have a Govt - clearly not the case at the moment, even if it wasn't prorogued.
BoL to shareholders.

Hi sunset
Been talking about topping up bdev float from rdw with Bamps on tw Board. You will see I plan to pick up tw Spec and psn FinDiv next year, unfortunately usually too close together to pick up both, but dates and amounts not fixed yet.
Created bdev float at 624, added at 599 and 606 and maybe some more around 660.
Think 700 still possible by end of week (depending on supreme court ruling and Politics).
Bdev my biggest holding now but hope to sell all float before end of year.
Hopefully Brexit sorted by end of year, and Per's, Sp's will increase again.
BoL

Ps
Over 2 months recovery time.

Hi Bamps
Been thinking about rdw to bdev deal. Rdw up about 20% in last 2 weeks while bdev up about 8% (both after FinRes). Both have lost about 2.5% this week.
Imho bdev results were fine so might be undervalued now (comparatively speaking) to rdw anyway, and basically, my system has no major investments to make until next year (psn and tw). Bdev XDivDt 11/10/19 so I have almost 2 months recovery time.
I have decided to watch bdev and rdw carefully, if bdev outperforming rdw go for deal else hold as is.
BoL

Hi Bamps
I remain optimistic about Brexit result, so expect a surge in Sp's once sorted (or at least a result). If that is the case I think bdev Sp should recover quickly, but not too worried cos can just hold.
Spoils my system if float stuck in bdev, but at the moment hardly matters cos Sp's driven by politics. All go up or down together, so my system doesn't really work anyway.
BoL