Member Info for Nige_W

Hi Krusty
Right now Broker News (even if a reputable Coy) is pretty meaningless. Think BoJo has shot himself in the foot, but another extension to Brexit is not the way to go. Opposition should Unite and revoke Article 50, and EU should reject any extension so as to force a resolution. BoJo never had any intention of renegotiating Brexit - he just wanted out with No Deal, (as confirmed by EU), and so lying yet again!
Think BoJo has just destroyed his Party - calling an early election (as a threat, bullying MP's into agreeing with him or deselecting them for next snap election) - and he has lost his gamble.
Now he has to go, he wasn't even elected yet calling his own agenda. No need for an election, maybe a referendum - No Deal / No Brexit - Oct 24th.
But who knows? BoL

Ps
Snafu - US Army expression - Situation Normal all F*cked Up.

Hi Z9
I think what Troubles was inferring was why? The reasons to you might seem obvious, but we would like to know your reasoning, after all, this is a discussion Board.
Having said that, I agree with you, only issue is when (and why, and depending on what). Politics Snafu right now, so a bit of a lottery.
BoL

Hi Troubles
As you know I don't think Brexit (whatever flavour) will affect House sales or prices.
The only thing that could affect them is articles like Kpmg's, which could delay peoples decision in buying (as they wait and see what happens), but this (at worst) will only be temporary and might not even have any noticeable effect.
Still think the majority of people who move do so because they think they have to (for whatever reason) so cannot easily delay the move.
BoL

Hi Steph
Totally agree a Sector board would be good. My point of view is similar to Stricly's, comparative values change depending on results, but while he looks for the best value, I diversify (so no disasters) cos as I said, the potential for all is massive.
BoL

Hi Strictly
Many thing politically could happen before the end of this year. The good thing is we should know where we are by start of next year. I think either No Deal or No Brexit and regardless of PM, it shouldn't make much difference to Builders.
If No Brexit Sp's will fly as Per's (and so Sp's) return to pre Brexit levels. Don't know if this will create a revaluation of the sector or not.
If No Deal Sp's might drop (short term) but as Builders results start coming in (showing no effect on profits), the market will be forced to reconsider their ideas on the Sector. This could lead to higher (than pre Brexit) Per's (as suggested by Rapper), but this will take quite a long time.
One thing I haven't managed to get hold of is the number of people employed in house building (before banking crisis and now) and number of houses built per year (over same dates). I suspect we simply don't have enough people in the industry now to meet the demand, and this could last for years.
Fundamentally this is all the Govt's fault (Increasing interest rates, forcing builders to subcontract out labour, and so getting rid of apprentices, banking crisis...)
As you say, it is what it is, but in either (Brexit) event, I think things look rosy for Builders, which is why I don't think it matters too much which you invest in.
Bdev a good solid (safe) investment, but nowhere near as good value as the rest.
Change in management at rdw and psn which is a little worrying (but I don't think it will affect rdw FinRes).
Tw IntRes poor as they address issues (like psn).
Rdw and bwy lowest Per's (cos least cash) which doesn't matter when Demand far > Supply.
Leaves bwy, but I will still invest in all 5. Still not touching Lse builders cos I think No Deal will suck jobs away from there (into EU) while as £ devalues not many foreigners will want to invest here (more Govt Regs).
Finally, I am expecting much > 16% increase in Sp for all my 5 Coys by Dec 20 (even if No Deal, more like 50% if No Brexit).
FinRes (according to my system) rdw 03/09/19, bdev 04/09/19 and bwy 15/10/19, which should show where we are going.
BoL

Hi sainv
It is good to see so much more interest in this board. The rest are so becoming boring. I sent a controversial message on tw board, with no real response yet. Main Points:

"Some examples of why I think the market has got it all wrong:
They believe building performance based on Economic performance of the country. Not true.
Building is cyclical - used to be but not now.
Builders are high risk, Civils low risk - the reverse is true.
Brexit will affect builders more than any other sector - the reverse is true.
All the above is why Per's are so ludicrously low. Quite happy to discuss any of the above."

For my belief in the above I completely agree with Strictly, (builders are best value by miles).
Anybody know a decent programmer - I wrote my system in VBasic and Xcel, but was a Cobol programmer, and basically my system is Sh*t. I can send the code (which I think has some good ideas in it), to anyone interested.
BoL

Hi Owls
You are right of course about aggregate view. But you should remember this - you and me are both (a very small) part of the market. You could think of the market as being Mr Av Investor, and there is no reason he is more correct than you or me.
I spent about 10 years in the building trade and 20 years in computing, so feel I am better qualified than most in discussing these 2 sectors. I started investing in Tech Stocks in 1998 during the DotCom boom and stopped in 2001 (DotCom bust).
In 2013 I consolidated all Peps/Isas into 1 trading a/c and started trading again. The trouble was only 1 tech stock left, cos all the rest (20 ish I invested in) had been taken over by foreign competition, due to Mr Av Investor making them ridiculously cheap. Now the last (Arm Holdings) has also been bought, by Japs. So, Mr Av Investor (or the market) can be wrong.
Some examples of why I think the market has got it all wrong:
They believe building performance based on Economic performance of the country. Not true.
Building is cyclical - used to be but not now.
Builders are high risk, Civils low risk - the reverse is true.
Brexit will affect builders more than any other sector - the reverse is true.
All the above is why Per's are so ludicrously low. Quite happy to discuss any of the above.

Hi Troubles
I agree plenty of snakes still about but a Big? ladder in John Bercow. Small bounce today in reaction to yesterdays losses, which means I think we are pretty near the Low point. No point in investing in bdev for Divi cos Per too high (decreasing Divis).
Rungs for tw for 13% yield need Sp 144, 14% 134, 15.5% 121. Could go as low as 134. Based on 18.7 pps
Rungs for psn for 13% need 1,808, 14% 1,679, 15.5% 1,516, Could go as low as 1808. Based on 235 pps.
Going to buy 1st rung in tw tomorrow if still below 144.

Hi DGR1980
Hope the above helps in your decision. Don't think you will need 3 (averaging down) rungs, 2 should do, but good idea to get in pretty soon.

Hi littlebricks
Quite agree with you, Sp movement dependent on Brexit news rather than actual results, which has totally messed up my system.

BoL

Hi Owls
That is the traditional market view, but what doe that matter when the big 3 hold so much cash?
The market has got builders all wrong (for many reasons).
BoL

Hi Troubles
Think I might just make rungs 140, 130, 120. Need to do calcs for bdev and psn.
Don't think it will reach 120 cos No Deal largely built into Sp (so not too many snakes left).
Also I think BoJo might have scored an own goal with closing Parlt cos it will unite everyone against him, and make them even more determined to stop him. In fact I think it brings No Brexit a bit closer, but certainly a bumpy ride.
Don't think anyone knows what's going to happen now. One thing for sure, everyone is fed up of politicians and don't want any further extension - revoke article 50 on Oct 30th?
BoL

Hi Troubles
Todays drop obviously due to BoJo.
Makes me think there must be a limit to how far this can go?
Divis promised 3.84 (Int), 3.84 (Fin) and 11.0 (Spec) = 18.68. Then Yield at:
150 = 12.45%, 140 = 13.34%, 130 = 14.37% and 120 = 15.57%.
I am going to start buying soon (in bdev, psn and tw) based on Iceman's ladder system. Just need to figure Prices now for maybe a 3 rung system.
BoL

Hi All
I will try to explain my Float system a bit better. Assuming £1,000 invested in 5 Bldrs and £5,000 Float.
Then, if I use some float, to say buy £2,000 in bdev = N shares, hopefully I will sell N shares at a higher price, which increases my float, while Base Cost (and number of shares) remains exactly the same. Hopefully, after some time, I can increase my Base Cost to say £1,200 in each Coy, whilst still holding 5 * £1,200 = £6,000 Float.
In using this system you should not sell any shares for less than the float price of those shares, and if you are buying a Divi you should not sell those shares for less than the Cost + Divi. The only exception is, if for whatever reason, you think the Sp will not regain the Buy float price. Then Bail out!
I have changed my system to holding a Base Cost in all 5 Coys (as opposed to Base Value) which meant I had to buy more in bdev, rdw and bwy, which has decreased the apparent profit. Doesn't change the idea though.
In my prev post I mentioned psn Divis, Just diluted my best share, bwy, prev av 1423, new av 1993, cur 2926, so profit used to be over 100%, now less than 50%.
Simply by Per's Bldrs and Yields Bldrs best value and if you compare those 2 factors with any other coys, nothing compares to them. Only downside is the Market believes on No Deal Brexit new house Sales will slump big time. But as psn has already proven (Banking Crisis), if you have Cash it doesn't matter.
BoL.

Hi Taverham
If bldrs Sp's drop they become even better value, and if you don't sell, Sp doesn't matter. My base price for psn is 1510 now 1932, Divis 235 pps so Yield 15.6%. That will do for me! I topped up for Divis but still made 11.4%, (and sold float later). Even at 1932 Yield is 12.2%.
Don't think you can find any other coys (media, insurers...) with such low Per's and high Divis, If you can I would like to know what they are!
BoL

Hi Strictly
I like the bigger fool idea.
Certainly builders are cheap now (simply by Per's), but I think they will become even cheaper when No Deal Brexit confirmed, followed by a gradual recovery. Any Deal now I think is impossible (and could be even worse than No Deal) which leaves the only alternative as No Brexit.
Might lose a few pounds on No Brexit, but not worried at all cos Sp's will fly. A bit like hedging a bet.

Still think it's best to diversify a bit within builders even if it costs a little. No way of knowing what issues will raise their heads next, nor which Coys it will affect.
Fwiw I calc from Per's % age inc in prices as follows:
bwy 79.1, rdw 71.9, psn 71.6, tw 62.2, bdev 59.1, based on eventual return to Pre Brexit Per's, and this does not include their justifiable inc above Pre Brexit Per's.

Hi TMT
As you know I hold shares in all 5 and will continue to do so. With those returns (+ Divis) it hardly matters if you hit the best value or not. Besides psn I recommended bwy and bdev (lowest value but rock solid). I did not recommend rdw (change in Mngmnt) or tw (bad IntRes which they will take time to recover from, but certainly worth watching).

BoL

BoL

Hi Taverham
My main idea is that House Builders are massively undervalued, far more than any other sector and so the best value by miles. Just look at fundamentals, Eps, Profit, Margin, Divis and Cash Held. Calc a Per from these nos and compare to any other Company, only 1 winner!
I agree entirely with Strictlybricks - hence his Name, though we do have different approaches to this potential gold mine.
Just look at prices in 1 years time, where I will be proved right or wrong! (regardless of Brexit).
So, why bovver with anything else?
BoL

Hi Strictly
One of the problems I have is I am so busy working on my system, I don't have time for much else.
Major update at the moment (after adding some new Coys and deleting some), the old system used old CoyNos which had changed, the new system recalcs everything using current CoyNos, so all History needs changing.
Anyway, this is why I still haven't tried to sign on to your Blog, or done any significant research into the coys I invest in at the moment.

In addressing the points you made:
Acres of difference - I agree based on long term comparison of rdw with crst, but my comparison was rdw to tw (max / min) then as I said 334 to 202 %. More importantly this year 114 to 106 % - not much difference yet bdev 136 %! Don't have a graphs for crst or bvs, but bvs Sp gone from 859 to 1054 this year, which is pretty impressive. Bvs under new management which is having a big affect, as has rdw and psn, These are local issues but very important in terms of Sp performance. Or to go back to 2013 (for comparisons) is not very useful. Maybe 5 years, but even then a lot can happen in 5 years.

Absolutely agree with you that value is a key factor, but I think there is another important factor - sentiment (ie Brexit).
I sold out most of my Float (too late!), but if Sp's half when No Deal Brexit confirmed, then I can buy back double the number of Shares I sold. No doubt I am exaggerating a bit but I am sure you understand my point of view. Otherwise, if we Remain In I might have lost a bit, but doesn't really matter too much cos Sp's will fly.

The basis of my claimed 20% inc in profit for my system is based on 2017 Sp's (less effected by Brexit) and is really flawed in many ways, so not much point in sending you details. I think it would work much better if Brexit had not happened. It is based on investing before Rns's (if you think they will be better than expected) and before XDivDt's (then sell just before or hold for Divi - if you think a quick recovery on the way). But as I said all is pretty irrational now cos Sp movement based entirely on Bexit sentiment.

My main point is a disaster can happen to any company, and I think by holding 5 it will not be too bad (a disaster with 1 will mean the others will do better). The relative Sp movement over 1 year is a good indicator of where the future is going. There must be a balance between value and sentiment (bdev worst value, bwy and rdw best value). Again I say the thing to pursue is value (cos sentiment is generally an overreaction).

Hence Diversify - short term (1 year) Relative Price differences very important - from this point of view bvs worth analysis - might be worth a punt?

Long message, my apologies, time out from programming - but back to it now.
BoL

Ps
Basic idea is hold a Base Cost say £1,000 in each Coy and a float of the same amount for every coy (I hold 5 = £10,000). Invest the float (£5,000) depending on upcoming Divis and RNS's if you think they will be good.
After studying graphs for each Coy and Sp movement before and after RNS's, it becomes fairly consistent that +ve movement after some RNS's, none after others and occasionally a big -ve like tw IntRes - which I did not anticipate, nor No Sp movement after psn IntRes, where I expected a big drop in Sp.
For this reason it is important to have a feel for the Coys by watching these Boards and their press releases and also rate of change of critical accounting numbers.
As I said before my system all messed up by Brexit (any Brexit news creates gains or losses irrespective of fundamentals), so a bit of a lottery.
This doesn't change fundamentals (bwy and rdw lowest Per's, bdev highest - best / worst value, tw and psn hit badly by results / media so somewhere between the others). So I am holding a lot of float as cash, expecting things will get worse before they start improving (after Brexit sorted - whenever?)
Using my system I would have a float (normally) in 2 to 4 coys, but occasionally none (4 times per year depending on the cyclical nature of relative Sp, while holding only 5 Coys),
Critical point is the Market believes No Deal Brexit will have a massive effect on Bldrs Sales, which will hurt Bldrs low on cash comparatively (bwy and rdw), while I think it will have almost no affect.
Btw I can live off my Divis, £1,000 is a simple multiple idea.
Hope this makes sense and BoL

Ps
My Mam died just before 911, which in a strange way I was happy about, cos that would have upset her so much.
We have to put up with a lot of Mad Politicians in the World right now, Maddest of the lot:
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/spotlight/this-isnt-the-madman-theory-this-is-a-madman-president/ar-AAGcsRL?ocid=spartanntp
Where will this end?

Hi Bamps
I hope you have made a complete recovery, no doubt very painful, but hopefully History now.
So very, very sad. I was in hospital for just over 4 weeks total (arterial bypass and to fix gangrene caused by lack of circulation), and the Mr said it should last for 10 years - 5 years ago!
Feel fine now (apart from my Back), survival chances 50% from 1st Gangy Op, 95% from 2nd, a month later, so I should be dead now.
Anyway 'Isn't in grand Boys to be...' I have a lot of good pals who have passed away, besides family.
I wish you the very Best of Luck.

Hi Strictly
Hope SM is right about John Tutte, but I imagine he would have said that about whoever took over from him last time.
My system automatically calcs Relative Strength graphs (but excl Divis) from 04/01/13 (=100), then 23/08/19:
rdw 334, bdev 285, bwy 270, psn 243 and tw 202.
and if 04/01/19 = 100 then
bdev 136, rdw 114, bwy 112, tw 106 and psn 97.

My old system included bkgh, crst, bvs, gle and gfrd. Also I watch csp, ibs and tym (but no graphs cos I don't invest in them).
At times bdev, tw, psn and (mainly) rdw have been the leaders (but never bwy) and disagree that there are acres of difference (2.0 * to 3.3 *). All have performed well over last 7 years, and local issues are more important. So I think it is better to have a spread in case one coy has a major issue (like Eddie Stobart accounts).

Brexit has totally messed up my system, but I have calcd it could increase profits by 20% over LTBH. Also you never sell your Base value - I still hold shares in bwy bought 12/12/13 at 1423 now 2932 (so whatever Divi is - 95 last year = 3.24%) my Divi is more than twice that (cos shares only cost me 1423), and it decreases CGT liability.
BoL