Member Info for Nige_W

Ps
Gorrit - Neon Mc Walrus. Plenty of Power there as well. See off Polar Bears.
My Great G G Grandfather was Irish and changed his name when he joined the British Army.

Hi Troubles
Already in profit on shares I sold cos if I buy back the same value I will get more shares. Only see this situation improving.
Getting into Cash now to reinvest later. I think psn PreInt in particular is overoptimistic - could be a big drop after, but as TMT said (I think), could already be built into the price. Depends on how bad they are. Not too worried about bdev FinRes (even if optimistic) cos 5 star rated in Build quality (or whatever) for last 10 years, so no adjustments needed.
Think tw in doldrums now until November.
Last point, I think BoJo is far more pragmatic than most people think. Just read an article that said he never had any intention of making a Deal (which I believe), but he will follow his nose.
Deal with US when we have just been told we are desperate for a Deal? US and EU far bigger than London and the Shires (cos that is all that will be left of UK if No Dea) and not really bovvered what BoJo does.
He might even revoke Article 50 and become the saviour of the Country, but I doubt it.
Think No Deal more probable than ever, but I hope Govt can stop it (but on jollys) - too late?
Could migrate to Scotland, but will have to change my name to a fish - just thought of one, Neon - that sounds Dynamic!
BoL

Thanks Tom
Long term prospects for tw and psn are definitely good, bdev not cheap now (comparatively) but bwy and rdw worth a look - lowest Per's.
I always feel my way into a new company, Buy and hold, buy more when a decent profit made, but realise this might not apply to Aim.
Don't see any end to short term gloom until November.
BoL

Hi TMT
Agree with everything you say. Just sold a bunch of psn today in anticipation of them going lower after IntRes. I will buy them back but don't know when (after IntRes or October?) Av sell price just less than 2000, so small potential profit.
Rather than buying and selling might be better just to hold, but I see pretty wild swings short term so maybe not.
BoL

Hi Graham
Think tw and psn reacting to quality issues (which is effecting profitability), bdev not nearly as badly affected cos no real issues. Not hopeful for psn IntRes, but it will be good for both in the long term.
Hi Tom
Sold a bunch of psn today (but no tw cos down again). Got almost 50% in cash now, bit more psn and tw to sell then No Float left. I bought some ggp - which broke system (never anticipated buying more than 100,000 shares), but fixed now.
Sold psn at 2013 and 1930 and tw at 160 so in profit there when I buy back.
BoL

Hi Graham
Poor Interims I suspect. Overreaction?
BoL

Last results for psn and tw were Interims (with no predictions for next year), but if same as last year psn Divi 235, tw18.3.
Then if psn sp 1800 Divi 13.06%.
And if tw sp 140 Divi 13.07%. Lower limits ?

Hi TMT and Bamps
I have about 30% in Cash now after selling psn @ 2013 (now 1904) and tw @ 160 (now 148), wish I had sold all float then! Topped up Isa today.
Thought No Deal Brexit was already built into the prices (which I don't think will affect builders anyway).
All a matter of timing now but what value. Divis approaching 15%. Surely Divis alone will prevent much more decline.
BoL

Ps
I intend to sell all Float if prices improve a bit - might do it anyway cos bumpy ride on the way and don't think we are close to low point yet.

Hi TMT and Bamps
Sell on hold!
Trouble is I see no change in the trend in short term. Anyway got a fair cash reserve now.
Thought I could transfer to Isa today, but have to wait 3 days for money to clear.
BoL

Hi Bamps and TMT
Selling more float later today (in tw and psn) but I will leave some in psn.
Got an adjustment to make (Base Cost must be reset in my system, works on Base Value right now). Means I need to buy some more bdev, rdw and bwy.
Of course this means I am losing money, but not too worried. The potential is there and they will recover. Not reinvesting elsewhere cos I think it is best to move back in at low point, if I can spot it?!

BoJo is working on Brinkmanship (another - £2 Bn more for No Deal and 2 year extension to sort it) and is this really going to frighten 27 EU countries? His only hope to stay in power is to convince the peeps that he can achieve a confirmation by 2nd Ref of No Deal - can't call an election. Not sure any more that this can be stopped, but I do think things will get a lot worse before they get better - hence move to cash.

Whenever a new Ceo takes over there is the danger that prev RNS's are a bit over optimistic, while the later ones will better reflect the true position, as the new chief sorts the issues out (and blames it all on the prev Ceo). How Interims turn out, I have no idea but a big decrease in Profits / Margin will not be regarded well by the Market, and watch Cash!
BoL

Hi TMT
Took my own advice and sold some tw and psn to create a reserve (about 20%).
Sill not hopeful for psn Interims and I think tw could go even lower in Short term.
I will top up Isa with some of the Cash (so < 20%).
BoL

Hi TMT
Another factor in Builders losses today was the poor results from tw (pulling the others down).
I think you need to be patient - things could get a lot worse particularly if Brexit prolonged (BoJo talking of an extension to sort things out if No Deal). There was never any chance of a Deal, and now Ireland (let alone Scotland, and possibly Wales soon) are talking of Independence, if England leaves the EU.
Still believe Brexit too difficult so it won't happen, but the S*its hitting the fan now, so who knows?
BoL

Hi Owls
Interims much worse than I expected, in particular Profit down (and so EPS), Margin down and Cash Held down. All indicating a change in fortunes, so bad news. This did not apply to bdev FinRes, need to wait and see how psn are doing (Interims around 20/08/19), but not hopeful there either.
According to Motley Fool article from Troubles, Per now 8.3 (used to be about 13) so Sp still about 50% behind PreBrexit levels, so remains good value. Looks like bdev could be better value, but David Thomas (CEO) has just sold 500,000 of his 823,188, so maybe not!
Leaves bwy and rdw, but rdw chairman Steve Morgan (main Shareholder, Founder and Ex Ceo), has finally retired again, and last time he did that rdw lost the plot.
Main point, simply by Per's Builders reemain the best value on the market.
BoL

Hi Tom
UT price should be the start price later today, don't know how it is calcd but a big increase on current trading cannot be bad. The fact that other Coys also say 176.55 confirms to me that is the correct price now (as stated by Johnson).
Just have to wait and see - hoping for mid 180's by end of week.
BoL

Hi Troubles
Nice jump in Sp late on, suspect due to some big after hours buys.
Looking good for tomorrow.
BoL

Hi TMT
Who paid for the bankers greed (prison or fines)?
BoJo's Brexit campaign was largely based on immigration, as was Trumps (wall idea), both verging on racism.
Don't think any chance of Corbyn taking over - think Labour party finished cos whoever takes over from him will be just as far left or more, cos of the changes made to the voting system.
Labour moving left Cons moving right (also due to changes in voting system) - what a mess!
BoL

Hi Bamps
I agree with everything you say, only issue is planning which is corrupt and chaotic. Should be centralised with a strategic plan to get rid of gridlock and ensue the infrastructure adequate before house building commences. Why are town/city centre shops closing? What effect does being stuck in a traffic jam have on pollution (nil Mpg)? Probably too late to stop fancy train now, but who would travel by train if the road system was adequate?
I fear it is far too difficult for our Govt to achieve (whatever colour), while Builders will adapt to whatever changes there are in demand.
BoL

Hi TMT & Bamps
Regardless of details, the Banks were bailed out, (not Builders, Crown Estates, Landlords, Masons and The Knights Templar) which was essential to prevent an Economic Collapse (of this Country and the Western World).
If Gordon Brown had not done that, Banks would go broke (no mortgages or loans for a new car...) but much more importantly they would call in Loans to Business, many of which would also go bust. This happened in the 1930's leading to the Depression and possibly WW2.
First Coys to go bust are the Utes (highest Debts) so no gas, electricity, water... so we would need another major War to stimulate trading (subsidising weapons manufacturing and possibly end of life on Earth).
Obviously Green Energy wouldn't get any investment (in a Depression) but probably wouldn't matter anyway, if we push the self destruct button.
The worrying thing is the return of Nationalism (National Socialists - Nazi Party) and the current leaders Trump, Putin and BoJo, are leaning that way.
BoL cos we might need it!

Hi Owls
High Yields cos loads of Cash created by Margins 20 to 30% - I also believe they have peaked cos can hardly get any higher, same applies to price growth, and cost inlation (on Mats) such a small %age of total cost it will have very little effect.
Don't you think this potential disaster is not already built into the Sp? As exemplified by Per's which used to be 50 to 100% greater PreBrexit.
Can't see supply / demand imbalance changing for years (regardless of Brexit), so builders will thrive.
BoL