Member Info for Nige_W

Hi Strictly and TMT
As you know I invest in 5 bldrs (bdev, psn, tw, bwy and rdw) and move a float between them depending on upcoming Rns's and Divis. The Sp's all follow each other, unless a disaster such as quality issues, causing psn to plummet. So Imho it is better to diversify, rather than picking one share as being better than the rest.
Got a large % age float in cash now (but still holding base values) and a little float in bdev and rdw, (for FinRes and XDivDt). Thinking about buying a little float in bwy (for FinRes and XDivDt).
Critical point, do I sell bdev before XDivDt? (11/10/19). Bwy XDivDt 29/11/19, which should be after Brexit sorted, so not thinking about that now.
Bdev certainly not the best value now, but a good solid company and regardless of Brexit has a bright (growth) future, so a banker for me.
Last point - rdw have lost SM, which had a bad effect last time he left, but I don't think it will effect FinRes yet.
BoL

Hi Morbox
Either signals (which I doubt - why keep repeating?) of Snafu. My money on Snafu.
BoL

Hi Troubles
Suppose you went on holiday to Scotland and you didn't pack your Boots. Do you buy some more or just not go hiking?
Anything heavier than water can sink - no company with £mn's cash will go bust, (at least not for the foreseeable).
Hope people reply to Boots (and not me - could give me a complex!)
Hi WW
I don't believe Building is cyclical anymore. If you ignore the banking crisis (which should not be cyclical), when was the start of the last cycle, and when will it end? 30 year cycle? This doesn't mean analysis of customers requirements is not a good idea - it most certainly is, and I think it could make a big difference.
Good to see a lot more chat on this board, BoL
BoL

Hi TMT
I also recommended bwy, with bdev as the safe option. Main point is diversify a bit in builders. Having said that bdev FinRes 14/09/19 (and XDivDt 11/10/19 > 5%), which I expect will be good (but I got psn wrong!)
Hi Troubles
Reputation is very important, but I think it doesn't matter too much when supply far less than demand. If you want some new shoes and the shoe shop only has 1 pair in stock (that you don't like much) do you buy them or not?
Houses not quite like that cos most people (for whatever reason) think I Must buy a house.
BoL

Hi Tom
TMT pretty much answered for me.
Four factors to watch for growth shares:
EPS Growth (down)
Margin (down)
Cash (down)
Divis (no change - will be announced with FinRes).
So certainly not growing as fast as it was.
"Bad" is not a very precise word. You could look at it from the point of view that "Bad" results are when Sp drops after them.
BoL

Hi Troubles
Psn are not like the Titanic - they survived banking crisis better than any other big Builder, and will survive any new crisis with ease cos of Cash held (as they did last time). Also still building with a huge margin, so no need to cut production while they can still sell everything they build.
BoL

Hi Graham
As I said on psn board, 'Must be cos results not quite as bad as people were expecting. ' Thing is I don't think people were expecting tw results being so bad.
Main point is that both are improving quality which will pay off in the long term as it is reflected in increasing Per's and so Sp's. Bdev Per so much higher (30% ish) than tw & psn cos no quality issues (and they used to be the worst).
BoL

Hi cm45
Yet Sp up? I intended buying on the dip - nothing to do now.
BoL

Hi Johnson
I was under the impression (from PreInt) that IntRes should be Inline with expectations - in fact almost everything down, so it is surprising to me that Sp is up.
Must be cos results not quite as bad as people were expecting. No dip to buy on, which is a bit of a relief.
BoL

Hi TMT
Interims later today (which could create a buying opportunity). Just invested a small float in bdev (Pre XDivDt, 11/10/19) and rdw (FinRes, 03/09/19). Will sell Asap on small profit cos I think Sp's could get worse, but (as I said on tw board) I think it is possible the anti No Deal Brexit are becoming more united, and could stop it happening. Then No Brexit becomes possible again, and Builders could fly!
Btw, I retired over 20 years ago and just got a letter today from HMRC that I am entitled to a Tax Rebate. I think this is due to me paying tax on Divis, while my income is so low I don't have to. They also inferred this could apply to previous years, which could double the amount.
Interesting point here. I was assuming this applies to the trading a/c, as opposed to 'tax free' Isa a/c. I think you pay tax on Isa Divis as well (cos Divis are net - after the company has taken off tax). Makes you look at Isa's differently!
This is (another reason) why my Isa's are growth company's, while trading are high yield.
Good to see you're back and BoL.

Hi Tom
The anti No Deal Brexit people seem to be getting their act together.
Hopefully this leads eventually to No Brexit, and Sp's of builders will rocket.
You'll be able to retire again!
BoL

Hi Troubles
Many things have not been done before, but who do you trust?
The problem is I think that nobody trusts so called experts any more and the BBC thinks schoolgirls or OAP's (who still go swimming) opinions are equally valid. Either that or it is on early telly so needs to be popular (cos they think the people are fools).
My point is we get very little news from the Media now, and it is generally clouded with meaningless people / adjectives / adverbs, inappropriate to news reporting. This is getting worse every year, as they try to turn us all into Zombies with the same respect for Political correctness that they have to maintain.
I am Politically incorrect and believe the purpose of Govt is to improve peoples wealth and happiness. Just saw program bits saying not enough Blacks at Oxford Uni and not enough Women conductors. Wow, must be unfair - what about amputees?
Even now Tv full of how bad Hitler was, but he wasn't half as bad as Stalin, who no one says a word against. At least I think Hitler believed (like MT) in what he was trying to do, (unlike Stalin who just wanted to stay in power - and kill everyone who might oppose him). BoJo more like Stalin but works a populist idea (like Hitler, and Trump), but hope they don't start killing people!

Talk of a recession now (surprise surprise - given Trump trade wars) but as I said before I don't see why this should affect builders.
BoL

Hi Johnson
If we had the EU voting system in this country Scotland would reject Brexit in any form, which means regardless of what rest of UK thinks it cannot be done. So (especially) if No Deal Brexit they will sooner or later leave UK, and re-join EU.
If BoJo rejects current guarantees, could lead to Border checks in Ireland, which nobody in Ireland (N or S) wants, with the same result.
Welsh farmers in particular already know they are highly subsidised by EU, and this is changing ideas in Wales generally, while the farmers will lose their main market. Eventually the same result.

Generally, if No Deal Brexit it will destroy UK, and weaken EU as Trade Wars looming. BoJo has only one motivation - become PM and do everything possible to remain PM as long as possible. Could be even more dangerous (for what's left of our country) than Trump, Corbyn the Commie, Putin and anyone else.
United we are strong! Builders are even better than Utes assuming a recession, cos it doesn't effect fundamentals. Demand will remain > Supply, Banks still happy to lend money (if they don't they destroy their own business) and interest rates won't increase much cos controlled by BofE - not Govt. So I remain optimistic, for Builders at least.

Cannot believe the BBC news now, in discussing Brexit or not. They keep interviewing people who have no significant expertise in talking about it, (schoolgirls, Oap's who still go swimming...)

End of Rant (this was mean't to be a short note) and BoL

Hi Johnson
Completely agree with you, but I think it is already (largely) built into the Sp.
Still think it won't effect builders much, but no recovery until Spring next year as results are published.
Ideally No Brexit then Sp's will rocket, but don't think much chance of that now.
BoL

Whoever recommended my apology, I thank you. If you look at it in full screen on a Pc it looks OK. Don't know what happened. I should store all messages I send in Notepad, cos it makes refs a lot easier.
Hi TMT
I have sent a few messages on bwy board recently (becoming popular now cos of Ex tef people). To create a balance in Builders investments, I think you should also invest in bdev. Not as good potential cos highest Per but very solid.
Also rdw FinRes due 05/09/19 which I think should be very good and maybe worth a small flutter from the Float fund.
I appreciate your intention is more LTBH than my idea (after carefully studying the market), but if rdw increase in price 10% after FinRes, I've just made 10% (and sold out again).
Last point, I always hold a base value in each of the 5 Coys I invest in, which means my av cost in bdev 403 now 638, rdw 376 now 538, bwy 1423 now 2770, psn 1535 now 1836, which is great but tw 178 now 143. Need to adjust to say £1,000 cost in each coy, (and £1,000 Float), instead of £1,000 value in each. This means I have to buy more shares in bdev, rdw and bwy increasing my average costs.
BoL and hope this makes sense.

Hi Tom
Think we have not yet reached the low point which I expect to be late Sep early Oct, so down to Base values now apart from a little float in tw (cos losing 20% on that - don't like selling at a loss).
BoL

Hi Strictly
I am worried about psn short term, but due to cash held and margin I am sure they will be fine.
Got a table based on relative price 2019 (04/01/19 = 100) just before BofA ML upgrade:
psn 94.7, tw 105.7, bwy 107.1, rdw 110.8, bdev 134.4.
Only 1 winner there! Bdev no quality issues. Looks even more spectacular on a graph!
I think bwy and rdw lagging because less prepared for anticipated slump (due to less cash).
Tw down from max of 135.7 due to quality issues and poor IntRes.
Psn down from 123.0 due to media, quality ...
Worried about rdw cos Steve Morgan has stepped down again (and last time he did the company lost the plot until he returned), but don't think it will effect FinRes.
So best value for me is bwy now, but not investing yet cos builders could go even lower.
Think low point Sep / Oct followed by recovery Spring next year.
BoL

Hi James
New culture at psn now - different company. H2B will be stopped anyway and even if Brokensh*t managed to stop H2B for psn, I don't think it would make much difference (cos doesn't effect Supply / Demand). Just words and impossible to implement without massive court cases.
Agree, mud does stick, but I think psn have a plan here. From my post on psn Wed 03:49
"What do you think of my conspiracy idea? PreInt are not audited accounts (so basically they are for guidance only - say whatever you like). But if say a 5% drop in Margin (for a Ftse100 Coy - which would make most others turn in a loss), it will be all over the headlines, yet still a 26% margin !!! Next step is for investigative journalists to find out why.
Ah - they say, the new Ceo is fixing all the issues created by the last (sacked) Ceo. What Great publicity for a change. Should help potential buyers confidence considerably. Wonder if BoD will start Buying ? Manipulation ??"
PreInt results stated IntRes should be inline with expectations - 30.8% margin, yet tw margin dropped 2% (to 18%) due to addressing (less serious) issues.
I am not selling any more shares in psn cos down to Base Value, but tempted to buy some more on Sp drop (after terrible IntRes) as PI's sell in horror, and sell again on rebound as big FI's buy back (cos already built into Sp).
Think you should at least keep an eye on them - used to be the biggest builder by far, now MrktCap:
bdev 6,326m, psn 5,933m, tw 4,720m, bwy 3,453m, rdw 1,901m
First 4 should be about spot on - not sure about rdw after Big Divi and current shares issued.
BoL

Ps
I apologise for the spacing - wrote it in Notepad and looked alright when I copied it over.

Hi TMT
In my opinion anything > 3% drop in margin should have been highlighted in PreInt results.
Still suspect bad results is a publicity stunt so they can highlight the changes made and the fact
even though 5% drop in margin they are still making 26%.
I agree with you Low point early October (possibly a bit before that), but if No Deal Brexit
recovery will be slow - need to wait until Spring next year as the results come in showing
no difference in Builders profits.
I see no reason why EU should change their Policy at all, we are 1 in 28 even if we are bigger
than that in GDP, so I still think No Deal Brexit or No Brexit, and No Deal Brexit red hot
favourite now.
Your last point (devaluing £) might attract more foreign buyers to Lse, but I think we will be
losing a lot more people (in Banking and services) to EU, ie Net migration out of London.
This is why I don't invest in Lse Builders.
BoL