Member Info for Nige_W

Hi Bamps
Bought yesterday - everything in free fall today. There's a surprise!
Market more like a lottery cos of politics.
Just noticed sxx lost half its value (cos of funding issues). How do you value a company like that - won't make any money for years. Could be a bargain?
Tempted to sell float in rdw to buy more bdev Divi (6.93% at my av of 531). At least that is cash.
BoL

Ps
A Great Big Bomb!

Hi Troubles
Iran / Saudi going Pear shaped. MadMen in control of UK, US and Russia The times they are A'Changing!
Can't do much about any of that, but unless a total disaster it should not affect Builders value at least, if not Sp.
Did you notice my reply to Tom regarding % Divi return since Brexit? Surely this proves my idea that the market has got it all wrong (again). I remember you said (a long time ago) if you can see why / where the market is wrong, you can make money out of that. Imagine that is WB rule No 1.
Hardly surprising since you and me are part of the market and some others have very different points of view (far better off not trading with anyone at all ...)
Anyway, Imho Bercow won't let a disaster happen, and I think he has probably cleared a course of action with EU. As a result of that I think No Brexit more probable than ever (60% ?)
Last point, conspiracy theory. Cons have lost all credibility since DC called Ref (and lost), so a fall guy was needed (TM, trying to get a Deal), didn't work so 2nd fall guy, (BoJo, going for No Deal but lost). All part of the plan? Then who is running this, Masons, Majestic 12, Knights Templar ??? BoJo still lying - no chance of a Deal so cannot Brexit - ie he will have to get an extension, or revoke article 50. Not too surprising, cos he does that all the time!
At least Labour has lost all credibility as well (with Corbyn). Hope the Knights have a good idea for a solution to this mess.
Meant to be a short note but I get carried away at this time of night - BoL

Hi 4ndy
As Davielad said Sp will go down by the amount of the Divi. What I was inferring was given +ve sentiment Sp should recover that loss quickly else (like last year) it could take a long time.
BoL

Hi Bamps
Just invested rest of float in bdev and bwy. Unless a political disaster, I expect all builders will be up tomorrow.
Hi Tom
Just Calcd my Divis as % age of total:
2016 10%, 2017 20%, 2018 28%, 2019 42%.
Obviously, Brexit has had a massive affect on Builders?!
BoL

FinRes due 15/10/19. Hopefully a lot of news then, contracts, T/O...
Still think IP alone worth 3 or more * Mrkt Cap (ie Min Sp 35).

Topped up today (bdev and bwy) on drop in Sp's. Don't think there would have been a drop if it wasn't for politics. Cash down to about 2%.

Hi Bamps
I create my own plan (via my system), which is based on the published accounts and my feel for the Coys I invest in, completely independently of rampers / derampers and actual Sp movement.
Don't always get it right. Sometimes I disregard some points that the market thinks is important. Recently drop in bdev Sp after FinRes, while my calcs say they are worth 700 now (cur 659), so investing part of cash there, and rest in bwy (Pre FinRes, which I expect to be good).
Much easier to study a few company's in detail rather than a lot, hoping to consolidate profits on a rise in Sp. As you say profits can be made out of people investing on (unjustified) Sp momentum. Or, to put it another way, the market is never right - it is always wrong. If this was not the case WB would not have done so much better than us.

On another note, there is so much land owned by Councils, Govt and particularly MoD, which (on release), could destroy the value of builders land banks the big builders hold. But does that matter? Many years ago the Russians released so much softwood it made a lot of forestry companies go bust (in Canada and Scandinavia). 2nd time they did that Japs bought the lot, and didn't affect the price of soft wood at all (but they got it cheap). To put it another way if Govt is going to saturate the market with land, who is going to buy it?

Btw - forgot to mention, roof to be covered with turf and flowers (to make it underground) and look pretty, besides extra insulation. Might not need planning permission either! Pretty daft though.
BoL

Hi Bamps
I agree with you about putting garages under the house. Foundations are wasted space as is the attic - not far off doubling the usable area for the same frontage.

Daft idea: Since most accidents on site caused by gravity, why not build them on the ground (out of reinforced concrete) and jack them up (or even prefabs). Then fit doors windows in the gables. No need for craftsmen (brickies etc), result - build more, faster. Don't even have to pay rates cos it's not a house, it's a cave! Everyone a winner.

Also I agree never put all your eggs in 1 basket. I (always) hold (at least) 5 builders. Not worried about a disaster cos no signs of one. There are lots of signs that things are going pear shaped, but the main indicator is ease of selling houses, determined by difference between supply / demand. Don't think this will change much in my lifetime. And then there is Cash held and margins - even if big 3 stopped building entirely for a year, they will still be OK
BoL

Hi Troubles
Interesting to note BoJo is going to "rush in a Deal with EU in 10 days" according to MSN. I cannot believe EU is negotiating anything (ie TM Deal), and see no reason why Parlt should accept it now. Anyway, still all up in the air, so who can say?
Still think we are on the way to No Brexit, and from the markets reaction last week, I think that is what they think as well.
John Bercow has been in Europe for talks. Bit worrying, I thought his role was more that of a referee, but probably the only MP Euros can trust, because of his sincerity, and his idea of protecting democracy.
Hi Bamps
When Steve Morgan came back to rdw as chairman, he insisted they reintroduce all the changes they had omitted when he was CEO, that made rdw homes a bit special. This (and his return) turned the company around, but he's retired again.
Standard house types are much easier to build, but still more variation than there used to be. Also, you cannot have almost infinite variation (as in car specs), cos the estates could end up looking a mess.
BoL

Hi Bamps
As you know I am into builders big time, cos I reckon they are undervalued by 60 to 80%, This is based on Pre Brexit prices alone, so if we remain in there is no reason to think they will not return to those levels.
This is a unique opportunity (due to Brexit) which will not happen again in our lifetimes. Why look anywhere else? Particularly given the Divis.

Not much point in analysing data too much cos all skewed by Brexit, but high point for tw Sp should be shortly before Spec XDivDt (04/06/20) and psn Fin XDivDt (11/06/20). I expect both to be around 70% more than current Sp by then.

In terms of Company value this is regardless of who (what?) is in power at that point, (and results of any Ref, whether we are in EU or not), but Sp's will not reflect that until the market realises its preconceptions about builders are wrong, (as will be proven by continued high profits, margins...)
BoL

Hi Bamps
"The house builders growth is always limited and always collapses after the big divis."
We are used to the idea that the market has a very -ve sentiment towards builders, and I agree with you that recovery takes a long time given that -ve sentiment. But now I think sentiment is very +ve which means the recovery shouldn't take long.
Got a big Divi coming from bdev (XDivDt 11/10/19 = 6.93%, given my av of 531) which I'm very tempted to hold for, assuming no Brexit disasters.
Looking better every day, impossible for BoJo to make a Deal, No Deal banned and John Bercow will make sure BoJo will not be able to pull any more tricks. No Brexit has gotta be fave now.
I expect a lull on Monday (for profit taking) when I will invest rest of float, and hope for another surge on Tuesday (particularly if Parlt recalled).
BoL

Hi Sunset
% inc for week:
bdev 7.5, rdw 7.9, bwy 9.1, tw 9.3, psn 10.1. Still very impressive with big Divi to come.
Think 700 possible before end of next week, 750 to 800 before XDivDt (assuming no Brexit disasters). Then big question, take profit by selling before XDivDt or hold for Divi. Assuming No Brexit disasters I think hold, cos recovery shouldn't take long given the huge increase in Prices.
Won't sell my Base value anyway (av price 443, current av price 531) so v happy.
BoL
BoL

Hi Bamps
Best of luck with your Deal. Gfrd not my cup of tea, only reason they are on my watch list is their House Builders division which they were trying to increase in size while decreasing Civils.
Too risky for me but I hope you get your £300.
BoL

Hi Sunset
This surge is due to the market thinking we will not leave EU without a Deal. Bdev is actually up less than my other builders. My guesstimate of 700 was based on FinRes alone, but the market didn't agree with me (seeing issues which I don't believe).
Or to put I another way, I would estimate Sp as being price of 651 - 613 = 38 + 700 = 738 (cur price - Mon price), but have to admit my estimate of 700 was probably wrong.
BoL

Hi Strictly
Think there can be no doubt the recent surge is cos people are beginning to believe we will not leave EU with No Deal. According to my calcs this could inc Sp's from 60 to 80% (60% bdev, 80% bwy), so still a long way to go.
I am in danger of missing the boat (still have 17% cash) but always a risk we could fall out of EU with No Deal. I don't expect a drop in Sp's on Monday, but a pause followed by a surge on Tuesday (particularly if Parlt recalled).
Anyway, when potential 60 to 80% plenty of Boats to get on.
BoL

Hi Bamps
Not worried about a Corbyn Govt, cos only way he can get in is as part of a coalition, that will prevent him from implementing any of his more extreme ideas.
Mix in house types due to higher profits in big houses (I imagine), but big builders will go with the flow. No sign of supply catching up with demand, so big builders should do well for the foreseeable.
Man on a mission only posts on psn now - don't think he holds any shares at all.
Hi Tom
Nice list but I imagine low margins - good to have alternatives though.
BoL

Hi Bamps
Been working on system again for an investment plan given No Brexit.
According to my system which is not completely up to date, target prices fwiw:
bdev 990, rdw 1050, bwy 5600, psn 3500, tw 260.
This should happen about 3 months after No Brexit confirmed. Numbers rounded from my idea of justifiable Per's.
But:
Does not include this weeks increase in prices (increasing current Per's)
Does not include natural growth between now and 3 months after No Brexit.
Based on Pre Brexit Per's (which were too low anyway, cos of markets misconceptions).
Sill don't think they should be far out (and possibly better than my guesstimates.) Anyone want to make their own?

Interesting to see what happens. Main point is these are excellent results (even ignoring Divis) and they remain the Coys value even if No Deal, but then they won't achieve these Sp's for a long time.

Another dangerous misconception is everyone seems to assume EU will extend the deadline, while Macron and Irish PM could well veto it. Is this the last stumbling block? If No extension allowed (and No Deal), Parlt must force revocation of article 50 - that could be inferred by No Deal Ban, but would be nice if Parlt forced BoJo to do it!

He will be the shortest serving PM in History, defeated every time a Parlt voted, let alone lying consistently, scheming to suit his ends (prorogue Parlt), sacking 21 members of his own party so he loses his majority, let alone those that walked anyway.

The knives are out, and he has no support - he must know that, so he must Resign.
BoL

Hi Bazzaman
Thanks for the article.
Don't agree with "further downturn in sales prices, continued expansion of margins is by no means guaranteed." When you can sell all you can build why lower your prices?
A few weeks ago bdev were about 650, which made me think they should be on there way to 700 by now, given their results, and that doesn't even include No Deal Ban. Bdev and rdw did improve a bit towards end of day but still lagging the others
You might be right about No Deal, but cannot see how BoJo can push that thru, in any circumstances given the vote.
He will have to resign or revoke article 50 himself, cos no chance of a Deal.
Amazing, he has lost every vote in Parlt, which he could be forced to recall next week. Think he is delusional and must resign before he does any more damage.
BoL

Hi Bamps
Think its just a matter of time before bdev and rdw catch up. Think No Brexit favourite now and according to my calcs Bldrs could increase from 60% to 80% (based on Pre Brexit - low - Per's.)
Float at 17% Cash now, so nice change to be buying again. BoL