Member Info for Nige_W

Hi Troubles
Let's have a Referendum, Trumpania or Germania.
Know which way I'll vote since we are Germanic (not Trumpanic).
BoL

Ps
Forgot Tw XDivDt so decrease in Sp less than 3%. Go for bwy?

bwy 1.6%, rdw 3.4%,psn 4.7%, bdev 4.8%, tw 7.4%, giving Av 4.4%, Or:
bwy + 2.8%, rdw + 1.0%, psn - 0.3%, bdev - 0.4%, tw -3.0 %.
Looks good for bwy FinRes (15/10/19).
Got any spare cash tw a bargain now?
BoL

Hi Johnson
Good Article - not often I agree with them. Didn't invest cos Per so high. Even at 22 over 3* tw, so if tw valued similarly Sp would be about 450.
That's why I stick to builders - by far the best value around.
BoL

Ps
Just to annoy people even more.
Maybe we could become Englandia, Walesia, Scotlandia and Irelandia within Germania, created by the Prussian Chancellor Bismarck. See:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Otto_von_Bismarck
East Prussia still in Poland and Germany used to extend to Kaliningrad (old name Konigsberg) on border of Poland / Lithuania, cos Poland never existed until end of WW1.

Don't mean organised crime or Mafia.
Just got a small (but sizable, considering the value) Tax rebate for a Company Pension Plan I had.
I was under the delusion that pensions were tax free (so how can I get a tax rebate?) Also, that Isa's are tax free, but I think you still pay Tax on Divis (as do Pension coys). Can't give more than £5,000 pa to kids (which I've already paid tax on) without having to pay more Tax, and when I die my savings will be Taxed again!
I was taxed for making money and taxed for spending it. If the Govt was doing a good job, you could say that's fair enough cos they have to pay for Social Services, NHS, Education, Armed Forces ... But they have made a mess of all of them as well, let alone Brexit, (and Builders apprenticeships). So there is no surprise that UK has so many Tax Havens, for Politicians no doubt - cos they are so badly paid? NHS is great unless you get dementia or not ill enough to warrant a hospital bed, then your savings are taxed again. Up to £400 per week, my daughter said a lady was permanently on a cruise ship cos it cost less!
Far better to get rid of our Govt, join Euro and become a State within EU.
It is disappointing to me that my posts rarely cause much of a reaction, always enjoy a discussion. Maybe this one will get a response.
BoL

Thanks Strictly
Just about finished latest update so will try to get on Blog soon.
BoL

Welcome TMT to tw
Now you hold all shares I do except rdw.
As you know I don't think Politics / Brexit make any difference to builders values, so a bargain now.
EU rejected Deal, so either Boris will try to get No Deal thru, revoke article 50, go for an extension or Resign.
If he resigns or vote of no confidence, an election will probably follow and possibly a 2nd Ref, but as I say it doesn't really matter. Not worried about Corbyn, only way he could get in is as part of a coalition, who will stop him from doing anything too daft. Who knows? Still think No Brexit favourite.
Even if Per's return to pre Brexit levels they are still undervalued - see comparison with Greggs below.
Table below is pretty depressing but cos they are so undervalued.
Case for rdw
Relative Prices when Date = 100:
04/01/19: bdev 136, bwy 125, rdw 124, tw 116, psn 108
05/01/18: bdev 98, rdw 93, bwy 89, psn 78, tw 77
06/01/17: rdw 140, bdev 131, bwy 128, psn 112, tw 96
01/01/16: rdw 131, bwy 118, psn 107, bdev 103, tw 80
04/01/13: rdw 363, bwy 302, bdev 286, psn 272, tw 220
BoL

Hi Strictly
Just realised why our approaches are fundamentally different. Your objective is to identify the builder with the best value. My objective is to identify which is increasing Sp most at any point in time during the year.

The reason I thought of this originally was that tw and psn Y/E Dec, bdev and rdw Jun, bwy Jul. So the simple idea was if Sp of tw increases after FinRes by 20% and then flat lines until next FinRes (making 20% pa) then sell tw after making 20% and buy bdev (increases after F...) - result made 40% in year. Or by timing move of float you can make more than the best performing Builder. Divis now a Big bonus on top of basic system.
Much more complicated than that of course.
BoL

Hi Strictly
My point was that even if you estimate actual results within 2% before they are produced, it doesn't help much if (as the market expects), house prices drop by 12 % after Brexit. Far easier to just watch house prices. As I have said I think there is no chance of that, so agree with Jeffries.

20% extra pa is only in theory.
I don't keep a detailed analysis of how well my Builders shares are doing (compared to LTBH), nor have a fixed system. All still under development, so even if I did a detailed analysis it's meaningless, as I change ideas. Last big deal was sell Float in rdw at 622 which I bought for 552. Left with Base price 386. I moved Float to bdev (for Divi) and bwy (for FinRes).

From 2017 graphs I can calc buy / sell dates and Planner will re-calc, P/L as you vary the amounts. This means you can get the optimum plan for 2017 (in retrospect), which is not very useful. The process initially depended on RNS dates (ignoring Divis), but that now included. Certainly what worked best for 2017 does not mean it works best now. New system ignores RNS Dates (besides XDivDt) and works only on Sp movement.

General idea is 50% in Base (which you never sell, so always hold first bought) and 50% in Float, but never going above a % age of Float > than say 60% in 1 company. This is not the optimum solution but safer.
Despite Sp disaster today my Float av for bdev 622 is only slightly more than Cur price 618. Av price 555, Base price 380.
I said Sp's are more like a lottery (determined by Politics and Brexit) which, Imho do not influence Builders fortunes (and so value) at all.

What do you think of my ideas? Particularly the 4 growth, 4 decline (and all decline at times) per year. As I said all messed up by Politics now, but maybe potential?
BoL

But watching carefully. Think (hope) they could be profitable soon. Shame nobody seems able to make sheets of the stuff, but I think coatings, primers... potentially has a massive future as well. Still hold 1500 shares = £270, and didn't lose too much when I started bailing out (unlike nanoco!)
So tempted to top up on positive news (FinRes 16/10/19), or even change of direction of Sp movement.
BoL

Pps
Sent a post explaining my system on bwy.
Horrible losses today (due to Politics) which as you know I think has no effect on Builders. Could be a good time to get in, but who knows?

Hi Strictly
My system produces lots of graphs, overlaid 5 year for each company so you can see price movement before / after RNS Dates and Divis, Relative Price movement showing all companies since 2013 and each year separately and a very complicated Planner.
There is no simple solution, but whether this is due to Brexit messing everything up or not, I don't know. Nor do I think studying particular values like Per, Peg, Pbv… helps much, cos can only be calcd twice a year, so can really do no more than indicate long term trends.
There are some consistencies. Done well out of rdw FinRes, almost always a big jump after FinRes (apart from when SM retired 1st time), and if Sp increasing before RNS it is a good signal. Thought I found a general trend - 8 (4 +ve, 4 -ve) turning points for every company for every year, so get in before +ve, Tp get out before -ve Tp. In theory you should only be invested when Sp's increasing, but with only using 5 companies there are 4 times a year when all are decreasing in price, then turn all float to cash.
2017 was the year least affected by Brexit recently, so formed the basis of my Plan. Only 1 year hardly forms the basis of a good Plan, which is why I said before too many flaws around to really make any claims for my system.
But I do think 20% improvement over LTBH should be possible, particularly if you Buy / Sell Divis with reasonable timing.
At the moment half float in bdev for Divi (don't know whether to sell before or hold), about 1 / 3 in bwy for FinRes and rest in psn.
BoL

Ps
Reasons for optimism.
How is Boris Deal going to get thru EU Parlt (let alone UK Parlt)?
Ireland vetoes Deal, and extension - UK forced to revoke article 50.
Scotland goes to EU and says we vetoed Brexit. EU dismisses UK exit (cos EU law overrides UK).

Hi TMT
Todays drop in price not due to Brexit for a change - World Politics.
If Brexit +ve (Deal or Remain) I expect bdev will make a quick recovery from XDivDt, so buy before, else buy after at low and be patient. Trouble is of course you won't know Brexit outcome by XDivDt. But good safe company resulting in it being less undervalued than the others.
Bwy still looking good up 0.1% for week while rest down tw 3.1%, bdev 2.9%, psn 2.6% and rdw 1.9%. So about 2.5% up on rest, increasing relative gain. Think there has to be a reason for this (FinRes 15/10/19).
So I would go for half in bdev (before XDivDt) and rest in bwy. At least you get a nice big Divi.
BoL

Ps
Had another look and can hardly make out Brexit. If plotted as a graph you would wonder what happened in 2016 and 2018 and also over the 3 years rate of increase has slowed. Plot it by Eps and you will see almost no change, besides a general slowing in rate of increase, but is this due to skills / materials shortage or decrease in demand?
Bwy going well this week, up 2.2% while rest about level or slightly down. Good signal before FinRes 15/10/19?

Hi TMT
I appreciate your concern over No Brexit but think this has been created / exasperated by politicians and the press. If we had EU law, Scotland would have vetoed it over 3 years ago and everyone would be happy. It is noticeable that Refs not allowed in Germany cos it led to giving Hitler absolute power.

Bwy going nicely at the moment, maybe in anticipation of good FinRes (15/10/19). Up 2.2% this week while the rest about level. I have 52% Float in bdev for XDivDt 11/10/19, my Av 555 = 6.63%, 31% in bwy and 14% in psn (+3% cash).
Hoping for a surge in bdev as XDivDt approaches. Got to decide whether to sell before XDivDt or hold. If politics +ve think I will hold else sell before, but imagine still all up in the air by that date. Sell half float?

System done well recently. Had float in rdw which improved 19% after FinRes. Over same time period all others up, bwy 15%, tw 13%, psn 11% and bdev 6%. So made about 8%. Historically there is usually a big jump in rdw Sp on FinRes cos they don't produce Pre Int/Fin results. Increases jumpiness in their RelPrice graph = opportunity.
BoL

Hi Strictly and Cyber
Only thing I see is the banking crisis (which was far worse than any of prev slumps) and no other slumps since 1994 ie 25 years.
That is hardly cyclical.
BoL

Hi Calisto
Good point, tw don't make veggie sausage rolls, but why does the market think grg worth almost 3 * tw (by Per) when tw numbers are better?
This is why I invest in builders.
BoL

Hi TMT
I think target prices are pretty meaningless when we are in the middle of a political upheaval.
Good discussion on tw board regarding Jeffries.
I think the main point was that they thought the market thought a 12% decrease in house prices after Brexit, which they did not believe. For reasons previously discussed, I think Brexit will make no difference to supply / demand imbalance , hence no decrease to house prices.
One difference I posted on bwy board, was that if No Deal Brexit, I said builders would not be able to build as many houses, and this will affect Eps growth. Main point is it will remain +ve , + Divis which is fine by me.
Daft idea, in a way I would prefer to see a No Deal Brexit, which in time, would prove my ideas correct, and the market has got it all wrong again. Trouble is Sp increase will take far longer, so better to Remain In, which I think is where we are going.
Then return to Pre Brexit Per's, (increase in Sp from 60 to 80 %) and these were undervalued anyway.
The difference is that if No Deal the market will have to adjust its ideas, while Remain In and return to Pre Brexit Per's and Sp's could remain at Pre Brexit levels.
Hope this makes sense and BoL