Member Info for Nige_W

Hi all
Strange price movements this week.
tw up 4.0%, psn 5.6% (cos No Deal Banned?), but rdw only 0.5% up, bdev 1.5% and bwy 3.6% (why so much less?)
Pleasant surprise anyway - long may it continue.
BoL

Hi Strictly

Generally I would say it is easier to say where the market is going rather than builders Sp's. I realise that you have your system to estimate value, but as in Politics it is very difficult to guess the next disaster, which overrides the numbers, such as psn quality issues, tw poor results due to addressing similar issues.
Nobody could miss the implications of Brexit, builders Sp's affected more than any other sector (totally unjustifiably cos of the market's misconceptions), so obviously No Deal Brexit is worst possible case, No Brexit the best.

In the last few days No Deal seems to be becoming improbable and I think a Deal is impossible - just leaves No Brexit!
Assuming that is the case my calcs show my builders are undervalued from 60 to 80% (based on Pre Brexit Per's - which are too low anyway). Hence moving from Cash to Shares.
Don't think No Deal is impossible yet and Sp's will no doubt drop if that happens (but only short term cos already built in).
Just topped up float in bdev (cos I think massive overreaction to a slight -ve forecast) and bwy, Pre FinRes.

I think tw and psn Sp's will no not improve much until next year (starting with PreFins), so now float is in bdev, bwy and rdw. By simply timing the float moves between these 5 Coys (and XDivDt's) as I said I think you can improve return by up to 20%, but almost impossible to prove this cos Brexit has messed everything up.

Last point, as I said before, if you are making 60 to 80% + on these 5 builders, I don't think it matters much if you pick the best one or not. Bdev was 60%, bwy 80%, but bdev rock solid, don't know about bwy until FinRes (which I expect to be v good). I can always adjust after the event - and all good Divis.

BoL

Ps
Big drop in bdev today, while bwy up. My current plan is to invest some Float in both, so I will see what happens tomorrow.
If Sp +ve invest, else could go lower so wait. Not very technical, and I don't even have calcs to say what % age should be in cash, cos really the only way to know is in retrospect. Think No Deal built (largely) into Sp's now, so can't go much lower.
New calcs show Bldrs (my 5) undervalued by 60% to 80%, so don't want to miss the Boat.
If No Deal it will take far longer for these values to be realised (but doesn't change the basics).
Look forward to a discussion on the War Monger Churchill!
BoL

Hi TMT
Agree with everything you say again.
Incidentally, referendums are banned in Germany cos that is how Hitler got absolute power, and if we had EU laws Scotland would have vetoed Brexit 3 years ago, so there would be no potential conflicts now.
I am now working on a No Brexit investment plan, cos BoJo saying he will still not accept an extension (even though now illegal - could go to prison) so it leaves TM Deal or No Brexit.
Since TM deal totally impossible for him, it only leaves Resign, Go to Prison or He revokes Article 50 (and saves the Country!)
Since he hasn't resigned already, I think his only option left is revoking Article 50, and his hero (Churchill) kept changing Parties and Allies - believe it or not Churchill supported Hitler, in the early days (cos he hated Stalin and Russia far more), but circumstances changed, so he switched his allegiance again.
Anyway, I hope we don't have to wait until next year for this to be resolved.
Think No Brexit Odds on now, but could be wrong again.
BoL

Hi TMT
Your link doesn't work, tried to copy it here but some sort of security prevents it. If anyone is interested the link takes you to the site, and on right hand side (Most Read), headline "Tories Open 14% Poll lead." I assume that is what you are referring to.
Just one view of 4 polls, last one of which states:
"If the snap poll is held after extending the Article 50 deadline beyond 31 October, the survey puts Labour in the lead on 28%, with the Tories on 26%."
BoJo does not represent the Cons party (too far right), nor does Corbyn represent Labour (too far left), so both should resign and form their own parties. Critically (in last poll) they will hardly represent half the population, or barely more than 25% would vote for the new Govt. Never been a majority voting for the Govt but 28% is madness.
This is how the Liberal / SDP (gang of four) alliance was created, and I expect the same thing is happening now.
No idea where this is going but a GE is now essential (2nd Ref alone not good enough).
Since BoJo's lost the plot, I expect him to resign later today. His agenda must be a new party, which he might have been planning all along, he cannot survive as Cons leader. Has any other leader sacked 21 MP's whilst not having a majority (due to MP's leaving en masse, incl his own brother, cabinet Ministers...)
I expect Merkel will get Macron to agree an extension until next year, to give us time to sort out this mess.
I hope common sense will prevail (Brexit with Deal - no good, No Deal - disaster, No Brexit - no worries), but time very short.
Created investment plans for No Deal and No Brexit - hope things are sorted soon. If No Deal, as you say it doesn't really affect builders, but they will remain undervalued for at least another year, if No Brexit the prices will fly.
Not as worried as you seem to be and BoL

Hi Johnson
2 very important thigs have happened since, BoJo might challenge the No Deal Brexit idea, and Macron has said no extension to Brexit, so don't expect much happening with Sp until these things are resolved.
Doesn't make any difference to the facts, BoJo position is untenable so he must resign, and Corbyn is unelectable.
Think either (with No Brexit extension) Parlt will revoke article 50 before 31st, or we leave with No Deal, cos run out of time.
All is madness!
BoL

Hi TMT
Think system is working again, (but could be wrong - so need to check it out).
I used to play Club Chess, read a great book (which I've lost, Club chess in New York), which you might have quoted from. Something like "Ha, And you thought I was a Fool!" The game I remember worst was 1 day all the other games had finished (so all the players came to watch the last game), where I had built up an overwhelming position and materially ahead (so simple idea wipe out all the pieces and I have far more Pawns left), but I wanted to make an elegant solution.
Thought too hard and played 2nd move first and blew it. Que Serra! Point is he could be very clever, but has made a massive mistake.

Anyway, BoJo must have had his own agenda, but I think it's now a busted flush - he has to Resign and get back to writing his book, cos he has lost the plot. Labour can't go in to new GE without getting rid of Corbyn, which I don't know if they can achieve since voting method changed (by Ed Milli). All this infers some sort of coalition (Labour / LibDems / Greens / SNP) who won't be able to achieve anything, until 2nd Ref and change political system to at least proportional representation.
Labour going left, Cons going right, is a disaster, in a 2 Party system.

The points you made to nick are not relevant regarding Corbyn, cos he won't be able to do anything without the new Parlt approval. Parlt has been in paralysis since Brexit vote, and as far as I can see will remain that way, until the situation is changed. BoJo and Corbyn need to set up their own parties, cos they don't represent what the parties stand for.

BoL

Hi TMT
Completely agree "I wouldn't bet on him resigning …", but think he has totally blown it now. His chief adviser Dominic Cummings, is a confrontational madman, which is not the best idea for diplomacy.
As nick said BoJo cannot go for a referendum (cos he will lose) and BoJo / Farage is unacceptable to the Con Party.
So I think he has no option other than to resign (to limit damage to the party) and concentrate on his book about Churchill (and reinstate Nicholas Soames - Churchill's grandson, and chancellors Ken Clarke and Phillip Hammond).

This is total Snafu and no simple solution, most probable I think is Brexit extended to end of year, 2nd Ref (No deal or No Brexit) and it ends up as you were, we remain in.
There will be a GE at some point which will totally destroy the 2 party system, mebbe a dozen parties with none holding more than 20%.
After that we must decide on a new political system cos what we have doesn't work. Just as a daft example, Scotland (massively against Brexit), could simply veto it, if we had EU rules. Then none of this (3 year +) pain.
At least I think No Deal Brexit is impossible now, TM Deal unacceptable, and no other Deal is possible - Just leaves 1 option!
Always the optimist and BoL

Hi Strictly
Thanks for the message, I will have a look at the blog, just need to finish my updating my system but shouldn't take long now.
Bdev going very nicely last few days, think it could reach 650 to 700 before XDivDt (613 now).
Going to invest some float in bwy next week. Still holding quite a lot of cash, but reinvesting it now cos No Deal beginning to look impossible.
BoL

Hi dsc
Think max of 700 before XDivDt 11/10/19. I will never sell my base value (av price 443, but might sell some float (av price 615) before XDivDt - depends wots happening then re Brexit.
BoL

Hi nick
Also think that politically a Cons / Brexit alliance would damage Cons reputation so much it would be impossible.
Lost count of the number of Cons who have been sacked / resigned, and this (alliance) would make even more walk.
In his brief tenure BoJo has managed to destroy his party, so should resign asap.
Agree with you "high sustainable yields" - hence Builders.
BoL

Hi Johnson
Thanks for the article.
Some points:
Profit before HTB 14,000 per house - now £50,000 per house.
This does not mean increase in profits due to HTB. HTB does not affect supply / demand imbalance, which is the driver of profits.
"Lower end of target" - but still growing Eps and Profit.
"Recession" - does not affect builders. Interest rates and Mortgage availability do, but they should not change much.
Everything else is positive, but the bit I really like is "vast improvement in gross margin".
BoL

Ps
Quality of new homes has been suspect for years, now improving., so shouldn't make any difference.

Hi Johnson
"Please read out my last statement."
Reply "Pleasr read out...", "No, not that one, the one before."
Reply "Please read out..."

Anyway, BoJo has Lost the Plot and no crystal balls are going to help much now (unless you have a very special one!)
As (unelected) PM he calls the shots, so what can he do now?
He has alienated most people in His? own Party, and lost every vote in Parlt. Old guys like Sir John Major are scathing about him. The (Brexit extension idea) over my dead body statement, means he has crawled into a corner, and unless he has any new ideas (like proroguing Parlt), calling an early election (before the Lords passes rejection of No Deal), it seems to me his choices are limited.
Resign.
Find a bit of archaic legislation that overrides everything. John Bercow will stop it!
Call 2nd Referendum (No Deal or No Brexit).
Revoke Article 50 cos TM Deal no good, followed by Elections for both Cons leader and GE.

Don't believe any Deal is possible, so all that is left is No Deal or No Brexit. That, is his last chance of staying in power (like Putin and Stalin). So 24th Oct 2nd Ref Day.

Day by day I think we are getting closer to No Brexit, and this means Sp's will fly. In a way I think if No Deal my ideas would be proved correct (no effect on Builders), while No Brexit really proves nothing. Obviously I prefer No Brexit cos in short term far better.
More importantly we could be reaching the low point now, so I am starting to reinvest Cash Float - bdev and bwy, at the moment, later psn and tw (around Xmas).

BoL

Hi all
Crazy drop in bdev Sp creating a buying opportunity. Sp 607, Imho worth 700 with big Divi on the way.
I never set limits cos if I decide to buy/sell, a few pennies don't really matter, but this does not make it a good decision!
Already topped up float at 599, and will probably buy some more tomorrow.
BoL

Hi dsc
Don't understand the drop in Sp - 645 just a couple of weeks ago then excellent results. Imho shouldn't be far off 700 now, let alone Divi surge, so a lot of recovering to do! I might also buy some more tomorrow. Are you going to hold for Divi or do you have a sell target?
BoL

Hi Strictly
I am hoping they will be very good (topped up float) but maybe it is better that they are very bad (see bdev and psn).
Doesn't matter much if value is your mantra, cos value will be realised in the end.
The loss of SM will not affect these results but might do in the future (has previous). I would like you to keep us informed on this board of your feelings for rdw (by your numbers).
Sill not too happy about the Special 30p Divi, seems to me I got a Divi but Sp drop > Divi. A bit like bkgh buy backs - not sure if these things help the Sp. I suppose I just don't like interference with the normal process.
BoL

Hi sunset
Been very quiet recently. I am not gloating about 5% drop in Sp while you said top up time, before the drop in Sp.
Just proves to me how daft the market is, almost as daft as our Politicians. I topped up today at 599, cannot believe it went even lower than that.
Nice big Divi on the way so who cares what the Sp is. Think it was Johnson who said 650 before XDivDt which I agree with, ie almost 10% (or possibly more!)
If any builder is as safe as houses it is bdev now, so they will bounce back soon.
BoL

Hi TMT
What the market has found in bdev results baffles me, so topped up, with big Divi on the way.
BoL

Just topped up as well. Might top up even more before XDivDt.
Market even more bonkers than usual !